1. Animal Theme
Livestock Production in a Changing Climate
Beverley Henry, Ed Charmley, Richard
Eckard, John Gaughan, Roger Hegarty
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

2. Outline
• Animal agriculture, resources and societies
• Livestock in a changing climate
– Adaptation
– Mitigation
• Livestock production – meeting future needs
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

3. Global agricultural land resources
>50% of the habitable area is at least 30% cultivated
Ruminant livestock production is the only practical food production on
large areas of dryland systems – occupies 1/3 of global land surface.
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

4. Land use for animal agriculture in Australia
Major agricultural land use in Australia
6000 400
Area grazin/non-farm use ('000 sq km)
Area wheat/crop ('000 sq km)
350
5000
300
4000
250
3000 200
Land use in Australia 2005-06
150
Total area 7,687,147 sq km 2000
Dryland Other 100
Production cropping, land 1000
forestry horticulture use Water 50
1% 3% 1% 2% 0 0
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
1984
1986
1988
2008
Improved pastures
10%
Conservation and Non-crop Non-f arm Wheat Other crops
protected
21%
Minimal use
16%
Grazing natural
vegetation
46%
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

5. Livestock numbers in Australia
120,000
100,000
Number (,000)
80,000
60,000 2001
40,000 2009
20,000
0
Milk cattle Meat cattle Sheep and Pigs Chickens Chickens
lambs for meat for eggs
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

6. Climate change impacts in Australia
Summary: The climate will be hotter and wetter or hotter and drier
with higher CO2 and will most likely be more variable
• Temperature rise of 0.6 -1.5 ºC by 2030; 1 - 5 ºC by 2070.
• Annual rainfall change of -10 to +5% in north and -10% to 0 in south by
2030; -30 to +20% in north, central, east and -30 to +5% in south under
2070 high emission scenarios (A1FI) projected changes.
• Changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme weather
events including an increase in the number of hot days;
• Intensified water security problems with the frequency and extent of
droughts projected to increase over most of southern Australia.
Source: CSIRO and Bom 2010
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

7. Impacts of changing climate on livestock
production systems
Changing climatic conditions will have four primary effects on animal
agriculture:
1. feed-grain, production, availability and price;
2. pastures and forage crop production and quality;
3. animal health, growth and reproduction; and
4. disease and pest distribution.
Rötter and Van de Geijn (1999)
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

8. Outline
• Animal agriculture, resources and societies
• Livestock in a changing climate
– Adaptation
– Mitigation
• Livestock production – meeting future needs
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

9. Impacts on pork & poultry industries
More variable climate effects:
 Feed shortages
 Reduced water availability
 Higher input costs – energy, grain, fertilisers, bedding.
Higher temperature effects:
 Heat stress
 Summer infertility
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

10. Pasture response to CO2
Site Pasture species DM response (%)
Mutdapilly, Qld Rhodes grass 8.6 (-0.3-15.5
Barraba, NSW Native perennial grasses (C3 & C4) 17.1 (1.5-33.8)
Wagga Wagga, NSW Phalaris, subterranean clover, native C4 grasses 29.0 (22.5-37.5)
Ellinbank, Vic. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 23.8 (20.7-28.7)
Elliott, Tas. Perennial ryegrass, white clover 25.8 (21.9-30.0)
Mean annual DM production response (%) to elevated CO2 (550 ppm vs 380 ppm baseline) for the
baseline climate scenarios (1971-2000) at each site. The annual range of DM responses is in parenthesis.
Cullen et al. 2009
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

11. Heat Stress impacts on production
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

12. Adaptive management for heat stress and
extreme events
Heat stress: Un-shaded cattle seek shade from
feeder; Late afternoon panting score = 3.5
Flooding
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

13. Outline
• Animal agriculture, resources and societies
• Livestock in a changing climate
– Adaptation
– Mitigation
• Livestock production – meeting future needs
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

14. Australia’s agriculture emissions
Residue burning
0.3% Agriculture ~ 15% emissions
– 58% total methane
Savanna
burning – 76% total nitrous oxide
16%
Agriculture soils
17%
Rice cultivation Livestock
0.0% digestion
64%
Manure
management
4%
Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

15. Australia’s climate change mitigation policy
• Carbon price
– Proposal for fixed price (?$20/ t CO2 –e) from 1 July 2012 moving to
ETS in 2015-16; compensation for EITE
• Renewable energy
– Renewable Energy Target of 20 per cent by 2020
• Carbon Farming Initiative
– Land sector abatement
– Kyoto and non-Kyoto offset credits
– Expected start late 2011
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

16. Monogastric livestock
• Manure management
– Renewable energy generation technologies
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

17. Ruminant production in Australia
Source: ABS & DA
Beef Sheep
Beef cattle
Dairy
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

18. Ruminant methane emissions
Distribution of ingested energy in cattle 6-12%
energy loss
Kurihara et al. 1999
Producing 50–90kg methane/year is equivalent to 33–60 effective grazing days lost a year
The dilemma: Excess H means lower performance; Methane takes H out of the rumen
The challenge: Reducing methane emissions while increasing production
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

19. Mitigation technologies
80
“Silver bullet”
70
60 Rumen manipulation
Impact (% mitigation)
50 Genetic selection
40
Dietary additives
30
20
Best management practices
10
0
Low Impact by 2030 (Probability) High
Ed Charmley 2009
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

20. Methane Mitigation Options
Short term
– Feed quality (5 – 15%)
• Pasture improvement
• C3 pastures, legumes
– Reducing unproductive animal nos. (10 – 15%)
• Extended lactation
• Earlier finishing of beef
• Reproduction, fertility & health
– Dietary supplements
• Grain (5 - 20%)
• Tannins (13 - 29%)
• Oils (5 - 25%)
– 1% fat = 3.6% decrease CH4 /kg DMI
Eckard, Grainger & de Klein 2010; Moate, Williams, Eckard et al. 2010
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

21. Methane Mitigation Options
Medium Term
– Animal Breeding (10 – 20%)
• Feed conversion efficiency
• Reduced methanogenesis
– Plant Breeding (10-30%)
• ME: CP ratio
• Tannin, oils, fibre
Longer-term (>40%)
– Rumen manipulation/ biological control
• Vaccination
• Competitive or predatory microbes
• Acetogenesis
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

22. C fluxes in beef systems
Ed Charmley CSIRO
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

23. Australia’s agriculture emissions
Residue burning
0.3% Agriculture ~ 15% emissions
– 58% total methane
Savanna – 76% total nitrous oxide
burning
16%
Agriculture soils
17%
Rice cultivation Livestock
0.0% digestion
64%
Manure
management
4%
Data for 2008, DCCEE 2010
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

24. Nitrous Oxide
• Denitrification
– Warm, water-logged soils
– Excess NO3 in soil N fertiliser N2O
• Nitrification Legumes
– Warm, aerobic soils Excreta NH4 NO3 N2
Denitrification
– Minor losses Mineralisation
• Inefficient use of nitrogen
– Ruminants excrete 75 to 95% of N intake
• >60% lost
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

25. Australian beef emissions intensity trend
Greenhouse gas emissions for Australian beef production
2500000 21
20
GHG (t CO2-e/t beef CW)
Beef Production (t CW)
19
18
2000000
17
16
15
1500000 14
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
 Increase of 24.3% in beef production 1990 to 2008
 Increase of 16.2% in farm methane emissions 1990 to 2008
 Decrease of 6.5% in methane per unit product 1990 to 2008
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

26. Increasing yield – producing more from less
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

27. Research priorities
Capacity
• Trained experts able to advise the farming community in:
– All aspects of climate science, adaptation, mitigation and
sequestration management
– Climate change policies
Adaptation
• Understanding direct and indirect effects of climate change
on animal production systems:
– Direct effects on the biology of animals
– Indirect effects on disease/parasite exposure
– Indirect effects on feed quality via plant and soil systems
– Water and energy use efficiencies for intensive livestock production
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

28. Research priorities (2)
Mitigation
• More efficient production of renewable energy from waste in
intensive systems
• Practical on-farm options to reduce emissions without
negative impacts on productivity:
– Improved accounting and quantification including emissions and
sequestration
– Cost abatement curves for a range of mitigation strategies and offsets
– Whole farm modelling and LCA
– Relationship between breeding for feed conversion efficiency and
methane and heritability of low methanogenesis
– Sustained investment in rumen microbial manipulations
– Reducing urinary N loss and managing indirect N2O loss
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

29. Conclusions
• Livestock production will make an ongoing contribution to
Australian and global food and fibre supply
• Climate change will have significant impacts on animal
agriculture through both the feedbase and animal
response, particularly heat stress
• Options do exist to reduce emissions from livestock systems
and emissions intensity appears the logical measure of GHG
mitigation for animal agriculture
• Extensive ruminant production systems provide the only
option for food production in large areas of
rangelands, requiring efficient and sustainable resource
management in a changing climate
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J

30. THANK YOU
Co-authors Ed Charmley
Richard Eckard
John Gaughan
Roger Hegarty
Acknowledgements
– Karen & Ian Litchfield and Dr Steve Little for the Cool Cows
Program Case Study
– Dr Janine Price and colleagues of APL
– Dr Brian Keating, CSIRO SAF for expert review
– Australian Government Climate Change Research Program and
industry partners for funding for much of the research reported
isr
Institute for Sustainable Resources CRICOS No. 00213J