This document discusses the need for new rural industries and agricultural systems that are more resilient to climate change. It notes that existing agricultural industries are challenged by climate change, and that farmers need new options that can withstand increasing climatic variability. New industries could offer increased profits, diversification, and resilience through crops that are adapted to future climates. However, developing new industries is high risk and underfunded. The document argues that more investment is needed in identifying regions and crops suited to future conditions in order to transform agriculture and build resilience against climate change impacts.
4. Floods in
Bangladesh
Replace chickens with ducks
5. Outline
• New industries, climate change and
resilience
• New industries for future climates
• Can we get there?
6. Challenge
• Existing agricultural industries
challenged by climate change under
warmer and drier climates with more
extreme events.
• Farmers need viable new industry
options and systems with an increased
range of climatic suitabilities.
• Need prediction but also need
preparedness (Hayman)
7. Are we prepared?
• Traditional agricultural systems, maximising
production
• Focus on increasing productivity - decrease resilience.
• Climatic shocks larger and more frequent.
• Climatic shock – need flexibility
8. Our staples
• 50% of human energy is provided by only 3
cereal species – rice, wheat and maize
• About 22 crops feed the world.
……a dangerous vulnerability…….
9. Diverse systems are more resilient
to extreme climatic events
• Increase diversity - reduce risk
• Range of crops at different stages of production
cycle at a point in time.
• Crops with particular defences
• Not all production affected.
Risk distribution agronomy vs profit maximising
agronomy (Swaminathan)
10. New industries have a vital role in
transforming agriculture
Adapted from Howden 2009, Barlow 2010
11. Do we have options ready?
• 20,000 plant species eaten in the world.
• 100 to advanced agronomic level.
• ‘’New” industries offer:
• increased profitability and sustainability
• diversification and resilience
• new products and jobs
• carbon sequestration
12. Crops for the Future
An international
organisation
spearheading the drive
to bring underutilised
crops into the
mainstream
13. New Rural Industries Australia
- the future of agriculture
• entrepreneurial Australians investing in new and emerging
industries
• creating an environment for development and building of new,
innovative, Australian rural industries through cooperation
14. New Industries for Future
Climates
• Identifies regions and industries
where climate change will alter
the current mix of agricultural
industries
• Determines plant traits
required for future climates
• Suggests new industries that
meet these criteria
Cullen, Thorburn, Meier, Howden and Barlow, 2010
15. Irrigation water availability, quality and price
key drivers of change in MDB
Crop Water Resilience to Salinity tolerance
requirement for drought/ Low
full production irrigation water
New industries – resilient irrigated crops
Olives High High Moderate
Dates Very High High Very High
Jojoba High High Moderate
Pomegranates High High Moderate
Quandong, bush Low-Moderate High High
tomato, desert lime
Cacti Low High High
Capers Low High High
Traditional industries – high value irrigated crops
Wine grapes High Low Moderate
Citrus High Low Low Cullen, Thorburn,
Meier, Howden and
Pomefruit High Low Low Barlow 2010
16. Olive$ more resilient to variable water
supply than citrus
2500
Gross value of irrigation
($/ML irrigation applied)
2000
1500
Olive
Citrus
1000
500
0
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30%
Irrigation allocation
Gross value of irrigation in olive and citrus orchards at different levels of irrigation
availability
Cullen, Thorburn, Meier, Howden and Barlow 2010
17. New crops with higher tolerance to salinity
Soil salinity threshold (ECe dS/m)
20
18
16
14
Pomefruit & Citrus
12
Olive
10
Grape
8
Date palm
6
4
2
0
0 10 25 50
Yield loss (% )
Soil salinity threshold (dS/m) for 0, 10, 25 and 50% yield loss in pomefruit, citrus,
olives, grapes and date palm.
18. CAM WUE
- higher than other crops
Fruit crop Yield tons/hectare Irrigation Water use
m3 water ha-1year-1 efficiency
t fruit/ML water
C3 Crops
Peach 12 6280 1.9
Various Citrus 35-80 10,000-12,000 3.5-6.6
CAM Crops
Koubo 25 1200-1600 15.6-20.8
Vine cacti 35 1200-1600 21.9-29.2
Mizrahi, 2010
19. Dryland agriculture
Quinoa cultivated in the Andes
for 5,000 years
• Subsistence agriculture in the Andean Highlands is exposed to
drought, frost, wind, hail, salinity and soil erosion
Jon Clements
20. Quinoa
• Salt tolerance grows
successfully where soil salt concentrations
are as high as that of seawater.
• Drought tolerance grows in sand where annual rainfall is only 200 mm.
Deep root system, vesicles on young plants & low osmotic potential
• Frost tolerance can survive temperatures as low as –8°C for 2–4 h
• Yields 1.5-3 t/ha
• Nutritional values
• Compared to rice - 20 x Calcium &15 x Iron.
• Compared to wheat - 2 x Calcium & 4 x Iron.
• Comparable levels of amino acids to wheat, and contains an amino
acid, lysine, which normally isn’t found in vegetable proteins.
21. Dryland agriculture
Native Australian grasses
“major dependence” by aboriginal
tribes on milled grass grains for food
• Low water requirement for growth and survival
• Low fertility requirement
• New food, pasture and bioenergy options
Ian Chivers,
Native Seeds Pty Ltd
23. National Expenditure on Rural Related R & D
• $1.66 billion(Core 2009) or $2.9billion spent
annually on rural related R&D
• $13 million spent on new & emerging rural
industries R & D (RIRDC, National R, D and E
Strategy New and Emerging Industries 2010)
• ie 0.8% or less of the total rural R & D budget is
spent on new and emerging rural industries
• Is the balance right between incrementalism and
transformation? (Sounness)
24. Why not?
• Temptation to look for quick fixes, short term
funding and trivialisation of innovative
approaches
• “She’ll be right” (traditional Australian
approach)
• Insurance value of diversity not easily detected
most agricultural research (Jackson et al.)
• Resilience approach conflicts with current
policy doctrines eg economic efficiency
removes so-called redundancies – ie sources of
resilience (Walker 2010)
25. Why not?
• new industries high risk and often fail
• inadequate availability of information
• general lack of awareness means:
• insufficient attention to creation of a favourable policy
environment for new and emerging industries
• underinvestment in R & D
• seems too hard – easier to accept the status quo and
incremental improvements in crops we are used to
• we are not uncomfortable enough to drive change - yet
27. We will be eating some food
from new crops
And remember - it’s
only kinky the first time
Ian Godwin
Notas del editor
shocks are bigger-scale. I increase productivity but reducing resilience. Good at squeezing thelast ounce out of the systems that we use. OK with stable environmentshock of some sort, we need some flexibility becoming less resilient.
Changing lifestyles and the increasing globalization of trade have tended tofavour only a few major crops and these have come to dominate agriculturalproduction, processing and commerce, nationally and internationally. Thedemands for research – and hence funding - have inevitably concentrated onthese same commodities. As a result, not only are a number of food speciesfalling into disuse, to be replaced by the major crops and the products derivedfrom them, but also many other species are similarly affected such as those thatcan contribute fibre, medicine, fodder, or construction material. However, many of theseneglected and underused plant species have the potential to play a much more important rolethan they do today in sustaining livelihoods and human wellbeing and inenhancing ecosystem health and stability.
We have our crops because of the ingenuity and brain-power of our Stone Age forebears. There has been hardly a single food crop domesticated in modern times. There are pecans, kiwifruit, wild rice (which is just now being domesticated), blueberry, cranberry, and a few others, but, taken on a global basis, it is a very small number of not very important crops. We cannot say truly that the few score out of the 20,000 species that we eat are the best because there are more than 19,000 that haven't been given a chance. The second myth is that we've had our food crops always. Most of the public believes that our crops go back to Biblical times or beyond, but most of the foods we eat are remarkably recent arrivals in Western diets. Before the age of Columbus, Europeans lived happily on their few traditional crops: wheat, rye, oats, barley, cabbage and dried peas. They thought that they were eating the best crops, and during their self-righteous complacency they went through famine, many times. This was a common occurrence because when Europe had a cold, wet summer, the wheat, rye, oats and barley wouldn't ripen their grains. But suddenly, after Columbus, the galleons from Central America and the caravels from South America, brought Europe a cornucopia of new fruits and vegetables: potatoes, sweet potatoes, peanuts, peppers, tomatoes, squashes, beans, maize, pineapple, chocolate, vanilla, not to mention tobacco. These were the traditional foods of the Aztecs, the Incas, the Mayas, and the other American Indians. Europeans had known not one of these before. To them they were revolutionary, not to say subversive, new foods. They resisted them. The tomato was denounced as being toxic. (You can still find a few people who have some doubts about whether it is safe to eat.) The potato was shunned as ungodly because it was not mentioned in the Bible. Many people insisted that potatoes caused leprosy and other dread diseases, and they pointed to Ireland, where there was a population boom, and said that potatoes sent people mad with lust. The truth is, that the Irish children were so well nourished by the potato that they were surviving, whereas in the rest of Europe the children were dying. It actually took decades of study before the English government would officially approve potatoes ... to be eaten by cattle!