Oracle primavera Risk Analysis

1. Primavera PERT Master
–
The Risk Analysis Tool

2. Presentation Agenda
• What is PERT Master ?
• Project Risk Management Concepts
• Introductory Demonstrations
– Importing from Primavera
– Quick Risk Templates
– Running a Risk Analysis
– Risk Register with schedule
• Advanced Risk Management
– Schedule cost loading techniques
– Probabilistic cash flow and profitability breakeven
11/15/13

3. What is PERT Master ?
“Minimize
Uncertainty”
11/15/13
Budget //
Budget
Schedule
Schedule
Estimate
Estimate
Total Project Cost
• PERT Master Focus
Maximize Profit
– Specialist in Project Risk Management
– Full Lifecycle risk solution
Management
“Strategic Management
Reserve
Reserve
Decisions”
– Faithful to project scheduling
Mitigation
Mitigation
“Maximize
• PERT Master Vision
Cost/Effort
Cost/Effort
Return”
– “Improved decision making
“Proper
Contingency
Contingency
Allocation”
through project intelligence”

4. Life Value Proposition
PHASE 1
PHASE 22
PHASE
PHASE 33
PHASE
PHASE 44
PHASE
Opportunity
FEED Front End
A/B/C, own)
Engineering
Design
Execution
(e.g. oil field)
Alternative
selection (rig
Wild Guess
(WAG)
-15% to +30%
Estimate
+/-10%
Estimate
•High estimate uncertainty
•Little Known about risk events
Capital
Schedule based
Market/Invest
Investment risk
cost risk
ment risk
analysis
analysis
analysis
“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS”
11/15/13
PHASE 5
Operations
Detailed Eng. &
Detailed Eng. &
SS
Procurement
Procurement
A
A
N
N
C +/- 3% Estimate No Estimate
C
Uncertainty
TT
II
O •Estimate uncertainty – Low
O
N •Discrete risk events
N
Risk event /
Risk event
register
monitoring
analysis
“DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”
PLAN YOUR WORK
WORK YOUR PLAN

5. Life Value Proposition
CORPORATE
REVENUE ANALYSIS
PORTFOLIO ANALYSIS
PROJECT ANALYSIS
PHASE 1
PHASE 22
PHASE
PHASE 33
PHASE
PHASE 44
PHASE
Opportunity
Alternative
selection (rig
FEED Front End
A/B/C, own)
Engineering
Design
Execution
-15% to +30%
Estimate
+/-10%
Estimate
(e.g. oil field)
WAG
•High estimate uncertainty
•Little Known about risk events
Capital
Schedule based
Market/Invest
Investment risk
cost risk
ment risk
analysis
analysis
analysis
“DOING RIGHT PROJECTS”
Operations
Detailed Eng. &
Detailed Eng. &
SS
Procurement
Procurement
A
A
N
N
C +/- 3% Estimate No Estimate
C
Uncertainty
TT
II
O •Estimate uncertainty – Low
O
N •Discrete risk events
N
Risk event /
Risk event
register
monitoring
analysis
“DOING PROJECTS RIGHT”
PLAN YOUR WORK
11/15/13
PHASE 5
WORK YOUR PLAN

6. Risk Vs Schedule
• Realistic /Most Likely
• Aggressive / Optimistic
• Cautious / Pessimistic
• Scale to Fit
11/15/13

7. Types of Risks
• Uncertainty
– PERT Master handles uncertainty by using three point
estimate distributions minimum, most likely and maximum
• Risk Events
– PERT Master handles risk events by using risk register to
enter possible events along with estimates of each one’s
probability and potential impacts on duration, cost and
project quality
Uncertainty + Risk Events = Total Risk Exposure
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8. Types of Risk - Uncertainty
E.g. How long does it take to do wiring?
Duration/
Duration/
Cost
Cost
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9. Types of Risk
Activity A
Activity B
?
?
E.g. Do we need to replace old wiring?
Activity C
11/15/13

10. Branching – Probabilistic & Conditional
Scenario: Renovate the Premises
– Remove wiring (50% probability)
– Repair wiring (40% probability)
– Install new wiring (10% probability)
11/15/13

11. Template Quick Risk
11/15/13

12. Types Of Risks - Risk Events
• Single Impact
• Series of Impact
• Multiple exclusive impacts
• Multiple impacts to multiple activities
11/15/13

13. Risk Register
11/15/13

14. Risk Register
11/15/13

15. Monte Carlo Simulation
• Range forms an envelope
• One segment is selected for each envelope
• Hidden critical paths revealed
7 8
Min
11/15/13
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Likely
Max

16. Monte Carlo Simulation
• Range forms an envelope
• One segment is selected for each envelope
• Hidden critical paths revealed
ITERATION
1
2
10 DAYS
9 DAYS
14 DAYS
3
17 DAYS
4
11 DAYS
5
7
6
DAYS
10 DAYS
7
12 DAYS
8
9 6 DAYS
…
7 8
Min
11/15/13
9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Likely
Max

17. PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology
• Risk Ready State
– Schedule : Sound logic
– Scheduling errors
• Risk Inputs
– Estimate Uncertainty:
“Quick Risk”
– Risk Events: risk register
• Risk Impacts
– Map risks to tasks
• Risk Analysis
– Monte Carlo Simulation
– Risk hot spots
11/15/13

18. PERT Master Risk Analysis Methodology
• Risk Response
– Determination of Contingency
– Mitigation Scenarios
– Probabilistic cashflow
11/15/13

19. Plan Validation: Schedule Check
11/15/13

20. Initial Risk Inputs – Quick Risk Analysis
11/15/13

21. Accuracy with Ease
11/15/13

22. Risk Outputs
11/15/13