Colliers toronto office leasing market report 2014
1. FALL 2013 | OFFICE
toronto ontario
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL | MARKET REPORT
Greater Toronto Area Overview
MARKET INDICATORS
2013 Q2
*
2013 Q3
INVENTORY
NET ABSORPTION
VACANCY RATE
ASKING NET RENT
ADDITIONAL RENT
*change in comparison to previous quarter
www.colliers.com/toronto
*
Although The Greater Toronto Area office market has shown signs of softening, the
vacancy rate continues to decrease reaching record lows at 5.8 percent this quarter,
compared with 6.3 percent one year ago. The Downtown vacancy rate took a much
sharper decline, hitting an all-time low of 3.9 percent this quarter, compared with 5.1
percent at this time last year.
With the significant amount of new development on the horizon, most tenants are
trying to hit the 2016-2017 opportunistic window to renegotiate their leases or make
major real estate decisions, when vacancy is expected to near the double digits.
Many tenants who don’t have the luxury of renegotiating a lease in that time period
are trying to secure short-term extensions now in order to take advantage of that
ideal timeframe.
2. MARKET REPORT | FALL 2013 | OFFICE | TORONTO
Downtown
GTA Markets
Downtown Toronto continues to show strong
demand for office space with a very slight
change in the vacancy rate since last quarter.
The Financial Core is following a similar trend
showing a slight decline in vacancy from 4.6
percent to 4.4 percent, indicating that demand
is steady for office space in this submarket.
Tenants looking for space over 100,000 square
feet will find 5 opportunities in buildings that
are currently under construction compared
to 3 opportunities that are available in built
office properties. The 3 opportunities that are
presently being listed for built properties are a
result of Marsh Mercer and RBC pre-leasing
space in new builds. Marsh Mercer is leaving
161 Bay Street and 70 University Avenue to
relocate to 120 Bremner Boulevard which will
be completed in the third quarter of 2014.
GTA East
GTA North
Central East
Midtown
Downtown
Central North
LAKE ONTARIO
GTA West
$23.63
82,585
3.9%
DOWNTOWN
OFFICE
STATISTICS
Wgt Avg. Asking
Net Rent
Absorption 2013 Q3
Vacancy Rate
A major factor in the growth of office demand
within the Downtown core is largely due to
the growth of the Financial Services sector,
GTA | HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE & FORECAST | Q3 2003 - Q3 2014F
GTA
Net Absorption
Vacancy Rate
Asking Net Rent
25
25
FORECAST
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
-
(5)
3
4
1
2
3
2004
4
1
2
3
2005
(10)
P. 2
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
4
1
2
3
2006
4
1
2
3
2007
4
1
2
3
2008
4
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
2012
4
1
2
3
2013
4
1
2
3
2014
0
-5
-10
Asking Net Rent ($)/Vacancy Rate (%)
Net Absorption (100,000 SF)
20
3. MARKET REPORT | FALL 2013 | OFFICE | TORONTO
implementing the initial stages of The Big
Move project, a proposal to improve traffic
congestion and transit mobility as part of a
25-year, $50-billion regional plan.
which has been expanding even during the
Canadian economic recovery.
Construction has just begun at 351 King
Street East and 100 Adelaide Street West.
The Globe and Mail signed on as the lead
tenant to occupy 134,975 square feet of space
at 351 King Street East, now called the Globe
and Mail Centre. With Ernst & Young set to
occupy the top 10 floors as the lead tenant for
100 Adelaide Street West, the property name
has been changed to the E&Y Tower.
In the coming years we can expect to see
landlords of current builds focusing on
repositioning older assets to compete with
the challenges posed by new supply by either
spending capital on retrofitting older spaces
or reducing rental rates. The downtown
market continues to experience strong
business growth and positive absorption
which has resulted in historic vacancy lows
for the market. With the significant amount of
new supply on the horizon, it is expected that
vacancy rates will rise over the next several
years.
Demand has been driven by an arrival of
young professionals and residents into
the Downtown core, which is exhibited
by heavy construction in both residential
and commercial builds. With the continued
movement towards the core, infrastructure is
a major player in successfully accommodating
this growing urban landscape. The Premier
of Ontario and the Minister of Transportation
have committed $11.5 billion to begin
GTA DOWNTOWN | HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE & FORECAST | Q3 2003 - Q3 2014F
Downtown
Net Absorption
Asking Net Rent
Vacancy Rate
30
12
FORECAST
25
8
20
6
15
4
10
2
5
0
-2
3
4
1
2
3
2004
4
1
2
3
2005
4
1
2
3
2006
4
1
2
3
2007
4
1
2
3
2008
4
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
2012
4
1
2
3
2013
4
1
2
2014
3
0
Asking Net Rent ($)/Vacancy Rate (%)
Net Absorption (100,000 SF)
10
-5
-4
-10
-6
-15
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL |
P. 3
4. MARKET REPORT | FALL 2013 | OFFICE | TORONTO
Midtown
The Midtown market continues to see low
vacancy rates, reaching 5.0 percent this
quarter. The Yonge and Bloor Class A office
submarket vacancy rate has climbed to 6.2
percent, moderately higher than the 4.0
percent reported twelve months ago. Average
net rental rates have dropped in Class A
office space listed at $24.58 this quarter, only
a slight decrease since last quarter.
build and 50 Bloor Street West, a condo and
commercial build, both still awaiting rezoning
approval from the City of Toronto.
With the flurry of condo development
happening in the Midtown market, landlords
can hope to see an increased focus on the
construction of new office space if demand
remains strong in the coming years.
Demand for residential space in Midtown
continues to drive developer interest in new
condo construction. One Bloor East, a mixeduse skyscraper which is currently under
construction, will deliver 75 storeys of condo
space as well as a proposed 100,000 square
feet of retail space to the market by December
2014. There have also been proposals for
two new developments in the midtown
market: Casa III, a 100,000 square foot office
$17.56
25,473
5.0%
MIDTOWN
OFFICE
STATISTICS
Wgt Avg. Asking
Net Rent
Absorption 2013
Vacancy Rate
MIDTOWN | HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE & FORECAST | Q3 2003 - Q3 2014F
Midtown
Net Absorption
Asking Net Rent
Vacancy Rate
20
FORECAST
Net Absorption (100,000 SF)
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
-1
3
4
1
2
3
2004
4
1
2
3
4
2005
1
2
3
2006
4
1
2
3
2007
4
1
2
3
2008
4
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
2012
4
1
2
3
2013
4
1
2
3
2014
0
-5
-2
-3
-15
-4
P. 4
-10
-20
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
Asking Net Rent ($)/Vacancy Rate (%)
4
5. MARKET REPORT | FALL 2013 | OFFICE | TORONTO
GTA North
The GTA North market continues to
experience positive absorption with just
over 55,000 square feet this quarter, a
significant portion of which was Toshiba’s
78,774 square foot relocation to 75
Tiverton Court in the Hwy 404/Hwy 407
submarket.
Just over 60,000 square feet will be added
to the total inventory of the GTA North
market as 191 Creditview Road is set to be
complete by the end of this year, which has
been entirely pre-leased.
$15.20
55,233
5.9%
GTA NORTH
OFFICE
STATISTICS
Wgt Avg. Asking
Net Rent
Absorption 2013 Q3
Vacancy Rate
GTA NORTH | HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE & FORECAST | Q3 2003 - Q3 2014F
GTA North
Net Absorption
Asking Net Rent
Vacancy Rate
5
FORECAST
25
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
3
4
1
2
3
2004
4
1
2
3
2005
4
1
2
3
2006
4
1
2
3
2007
4
1
2
3
2008
4
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
2012
4
1
2
3
2013
4
1
2
3
0
Asking Net Rent ($)/Vacancy Rate (%)
Net Absorption (100,000 SF)
4
2014
-1
-5
-2
-10
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL |
P. 5
6. MARKET REPORT | FALL 2013 | OFFICE | TORONTO
GTA East
The GTA East market didn’t experience
much activity this quarter, which is quite
typical of this market. The vacancy rate
continues to rise and several small suites
becoming vacant contributed to the
negative absorption this quarter. The GTA
East market still proves to be a popular
destination for those requiring an industrial
component in their space.
GTA EAST
OFFICE
STATISTICS
-112,272
Absorption 2013 Q3
$12.07
Wgt Avg. Asking
Net Rent
The vacancy rate posted a significant
rise settling at 10.6 percent this quarter,
continuing to have the highest vacancy rate
of all GTA markets. At just over 5.5 million
square feet, the smallest changes within
this market can greatly affect the overall
numbers. The GTA East market offers the
lowest asking net rental rates in the GTA,
average at $12.07 and $26.89 net and gross
(respectively).
10.6%
Vacancy Rate
GTA EAST | HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE & FORECAST | Q3 2003 - Q3 2014F
GTA East
Net Absorption
Net Asking Rent
Adjusted Vacancy Rate
4
FORECAST
20
15
2
10
1
5
0
3
4
1
2
3
2004
4
1
2
3
2005
4
1
2
3
2006
4
1
2
3
2007
4
1
2
3
2008
4
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
2012
4
1
2
3
2013
4
1
2
3
0
2014
-1
-2
-10
-3
P. 6
-5
-15
| COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL
Asking Net Rent ($)/Vacancy Rate (%)
Net Absorption (100,000 SF)
3
7. MARKET REPORT | FALL 2013 | OFFICE | TORONTO
GTA West
With the recently awarded LEED-EB Gold
certification, Mississauga Executive Centre
has proven to be popular, with Element Fleet
Management taking 48,000 square feet at 4
Robert Speck Parkway, accounting for over
70 percent of the submarket’s total absorption
this quarter.
The GTA West market posted a high positive
absorption this quarter at 161,904 square
feet, with the Mississauga City Centre and
Meadowvale submarkets being the main
contributors.
This market continues to be the ideal location
for many tenants looking to locate in the
Suburban market. Recent large transactions
in the area include SNC Lavalin, Royal Sun
Alliance, Novartis Animal Health, Russell
Metals, West 49, Price Waterhouse Coopers
and several other companies looking to
locate or expand their offices in this desirable
location.
The Burlington submarket remains especially
tight with few planned developments on the
horizon, but added tenant demand for the
area. With no big block opportunities over
20,000 square feet, and only 1 building
added to the inventory since 2010, this
market will need to build some new supply
if it intends on keeping up with its GTA West
counterparts.
There were two new developments completed
this quarter in the Oakville and Meadowvale
submarkets, adding over 110,000 square feet
to the total inventory. There are quite a few
new developments in the pipeline set to be
completed in the next few quarters, roughly
adding a little over 800,000 square feet to
the GTA West office inventory, with about 25
percent already pre-leased.
$15.39
147,676
8.2%
GTA WEST
OFFICE
STATISTICS
Wgt Avg. Asking
Net Rent
Absorption 2013 Q3
Vacancy Rate
GTA WEST | HISTORICAL PERFORMANCE & FORECAST | Q3 2003 - Q3 2014F
GTA West
Net Absorption
Asking Net Rent
Adjusted Vacancy Rate
8
FORECAST
20
15
4
10
2
5
0
3
4
1
2
3
2004
4
1
2
3
2005
4
1
2
3
2006
4
1
2
3
2007
4
1
2
3
2008
4
1
2
3
2009
4
1
2
3
2010
4
1
2
3
2011
4
1
2
3
4
2012
1
2
3
2013
4
1
2
3
0
2014
-2
-5
-4
-10
-6
Asking Net Rent ($)/Vacancy Rate (%)
Net Absorption (100,000 SF)
6
-15
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL |
P. 7