Presentation by Pramod Aggarwal, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, India. 4 May 2010.

1. Enhancing the Adaptive Capacity of
Indian Agriculture to Climate Change:
Opportunities and Constraints
Pramod Aggarwal
Indian Agricultural Research Institute
New Delhi, India

2. Agriculture led development in India
 Food production increased from 65 in
1960s to 230 million tons in 2008
 Land saved - more than 50 million ha
 Calorie intake increased from 1900 to
2500 Kcal/capita/day
 Poverty decreased in rural areas from
51% (in 1977) to 27% (in 2004)
 Human development index improved
from 0.41 (in 1972) to 0.619 (in 2007-08)

3. And yet problems persist
 1/4th of the world’s hungry
 40% of the world’s malnourished
children and women
 Lagging in meeting MDGs
 Given a choice, 40% farmers would
like to leave farming (NSSO, 2005)

4. Climate change may further compound
the situation
2020 2050 2080
Source: IPCC2007; Adapted from Krishna
kumar et al. 2009

5. Assessing vulnerability of Indian agriculture to climate
change: Controlled environment facilities at Delhi

6. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Wheat

7. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Maize

8. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Sorghum

9. Climate change impacts on crop yields in India:
Soybean

10. These impact assessments
have uncertainties
 Possible errors in climate models, crop
models and data used
 No link with change in future irrigation
water availability
 No consideration of weather extremes
 Future technological developments, (e.g.
in crop improvement), and socio-
economic scenarios not considered

11. Projected impacts of climate
change on Indian agriculture
 Increase in CO2 to 550 ppm increases yields of
most C3 crops by 10-20%.
 A 1oC increase in temperature may reduce yields
of many crops by 0-7%. Much higher losses at
higher temperatures.
 Productivity of most crops to decrease only
marginally/remain unaffected by 2020 but
decrease by 10-40% by 2100.
 Possibly some improvement in yields of
chickpea, winter maize, sorghum and millets.
 Less loss in potato, mustard and vegetables in
north-western India due to reduced frost
damage.

12. Climate change may also
provide new opportunities
 Apple yields in
Himachal have
decreased due to
inadequate chilling
 Apple cultivation
shifted upwards
 Farmers changed to
vegetables earning
more income
 New varieties with
lesser chilling
requirement being
introduced

13. Adapting agriculture to climate change:
Setting goals of adaptation
• Indian national agricultural policy aims a:
• Growth rate of 4% per annum
• Growth based on efficiency and conservation of resources
• Growth that is inclusive and equitable
• Goals of adaptation
• Producing more (diversified) food to meet demand
• Stabilizing production in climate stressed seasons
• Raising input use efficiency to address the increasing
competition for land, water, capital, and labour
settlements
• Greater focus on poor

14. Adapting to climate change by raising crop production:
Large yield gaps in crops provide an opportunity
Biological
potential yield
Yield gap2: Limited by
climate, soil, and
irrigation
Demand
Biophysical 2020
Yield gap1: Limited by potential yield
crop management,
pests, and risk
management
approaches Current yield

15. Agronomic options can meet goals of
adaptation in short-term

16. Adaptation/mitigation options may not always be
economically viable: Example of N use efficiency in rice
Cost
of
one
kg N
in
urea
Pathak, H. (2010) Nutr. Cycling Agro-ecosystem.

17. National Food Security Mission
Aims to bridge yield gaps
 Launched in 2007
in 311 districts to
raise production
by 20 million tons:
 Better seeds
 Assured inputs-
nutrients, irrigation,
machinery
 Farmers training
 Demos

18. Climate change may limit the potential
adaptation window of current technologies

19. Managing current and future short-term climatic
risks is crucial
 70% of land under cultivation
prone to drought
 12% of land (40 million
hectares) to floods
 8% of land (8,000 km
coastline) to cyclones
 A major disaster occurs
every 2-3 years
 30 million people affected
annually
Source: Ministry of Agriculture, GOI: BMTPC, Ministry of Urban Development, GOI

20. Short periods of drought can cause large
yield losses: Sorghum in Rajasthan

21. Adaptation to increasing climatic risks:
Assisting farmers to cope with current climatic risks
 Providing value-added weather services
 Weak weather infrastructure; data protocols, storage, access and
dissemination
 Promoting insurance for climatic risk management
 scientific and economically validated schemes; weather derivatives;
awareness
 Facilitating community partnership in food, forage and seed banks
 Technical know-how; capital costs; reduced acceptance if successive years
are risk free
 Compensating farmers for environmental services
 Technical know-how; costs of production go up
 Sharing experiences across similar regions
 Validation in new scenarios of development and climate risks

22. Policy responses have consistently evolved
with successive drought events
Drought
Events
1877 1965 1972 1979 1987 2002 2009
Major Policy Famine Green Employ Contingency Watershed Improved weather
Codes Revolution ment Crop Approach forecasts and their
Interventions
and FCI GenerationPlan applications
Programmes
Scarcity Drought Drought Water Knowledge
relief relief management management management
Each round represent Each round represent around
death of one million fifty million people affected Source: ADPC/MOA
people

23. Drought early warning and response
system has been conceptualized
RAINFALL MONITORING RESERVOIR WATER BUDGETING
CENTRAL
R
E
STATE FOOD / NUTRITION SECURITY
S NATIONAL
E CROP
R WEATHER DISTRICT EMPLOYMENT GENERATION
V WATCH
O GROUP
I SUB-DISTRICT DRINKING WATER
R
CROP MONITORING VILLAGE CATTLE CARE
Early Warning Response Programs
Source: MOA

24. Despite such policy responses, climatic risks
still cause considerable loss
Poverty (2005) Human capital
Key reasons Population at $2/day or less literacy rate
 Widespread
poverty
 Limited
human capital
 Poor
governance
including
limited
stakeholder
analysis, and
dissemination Green 1-10, Yellow 11-50, Red > 50
of knowledge

25. Conclusions
1. Large yield gaps in all crops is an opportunity for
meeting food demand in future even in the face of
increasing climatic risks.
2. In short-term, several options relating to technology
transfer and adoption can help improve adaptive
capacity. Later, better adapted genotypes will be
needed.
3. Climate change may provide new opportunities for
growing crops in regions/periods not considered
suitable earlier. Need to manage them.
4. Problems related to poverty, governance, institutions,
and human capital limit agriculture growth today and
can also limit adaptation to increasing climatic risks.

26. Some observations on the proposed
Mega Program on climate change
 Clear identification of stakeholders:
 Farmers
 Policy Planners
 Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon markets)
 Stakeholders interest in adaptive capacity:
 Understanding vulnerabilities of the region
 Overall enhancement of adaptive capacity (not agriculture
alone)
 Short-term action plans
 Integrated, region specific solutions; and not by themes.

27. Some observations on the proposed
Mega Program on climate change
 New partnerships are required:
 Other science departments (earth
sciences, e.g.)
 Development departments (e.g. irrigation
and disaster management agencies)
 Industry (e.g. insurance, carbon
marketing)
 Cooperatives (e.g. for food, seed and feed
banks)