Presentation by Avery Cohn, Maria Bowman, David Zilberman and Kate O’Neill, Workshop on Institutional arrangements for forest-agriculture boundaries, August 2011

1. The Viability of Cattle Ranching Intensification in Brazil as a Terrestrial Climate Change Mitigation Strategy Avery Cohn1,2, Maria Bowman1, David Zilberman1 and Kate O’Neill1 |IFRI-CCAFS Special Issue| IFPRI| Washington D.C. | 8/26/2011 1 University of California, Berkeley 2avery.cohn@gmail.com

2. Findings Science and data gaps create uncertainty about the viability of cattle ranching intensification as a climate mitigation strategy with livelihoods benefits. To be verifiable, cattle ranching intensification programs (CRIPs) should fund better cattle systems data and science. Viability is strongly contingent on the system boundary of the analysis conducted. Consistency is important, entirely normative choices are inevitable. How short is the short run? 2

3. Motivation Several emerging terrestrial climate mitigation strategies depend on “land sparing” by intensifying cattle ranching in Brazil (Gouvello, 2010;Embassy of Brazil, 2010; Ecofys, 2011) . But are Brazilian cattle ranching intensification programs (CRIPs) viable “land sparing” strategies? 3

4. By Intensification we mean Land Use Intensification any combination of production or management practices that leads to all or part of the Brazilian cattle sector producing more cattle products per land unit. This could mean boosting non-land inputs, boosting output, boosting the quality of the land input, or some combination of these things. This doesn’t necessarily mean feedlots 4

5. Intensificationlandsparingghg mitigation rationale ~200 million cattle in Brazil ~200 million hectares of pasture = ~1 cow/hectare !! Can an intensification policy reduce deforestation and spare land (Green, 2005; de Gouvello et al., 2010)? 5

6. Origins of the focus on intensification Pasture associated with 80% of deforestation in Brazil ~0.8=Pi/Di where for Amazonian census tract i, P=pasture area in 2006 agricultural census and D is cumulative deforestation classified by PRODES, 2004-2006. “Pasture is responsible for almost 80% of total deforestation in the legal Amazon [of Brazil]” (Federal Government of Brazil, 2004; Bustamante et al. 2009; Greenpeace, 2010) Cattle Ranching intensification a keystone of Brazilian climate change mitigation plans (Gouvello, 2010 ) 6

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8. Ranching central to GHG reductions pledged in Brazil’s NAMAs 8

9. Semi-intensive alternatives exist 9

10. Somewhat widespread adoption of intensive technologies is already underway 10 Source: IBGE, 2006

11. Pitfalls (1): Uncertainty Source: Cohn et al., In Prep. Pasture productivity estimates (in tDM/ha/yr) 11

12. Pitfalls (2a): Intensification leaks Cohn & O’Hare (In Preparation)use survey research to show that in MatoGrosso State, Brazil 5-20% of revenue spent on farming goes to expansion (land purchases or new rental properties). Agricultural capital is mobile. Farms on the forest frontier don’t have higher extensification investments. Subsidizing intensification could increase short—run deforestation. 12

13. Pitfalls (2b): Subsidy Could Cause Land Sparing Abroad (Mha 2010-2030) Boosting cattle density in Brazil could greatly reduce global greenhouse gas emissions from land use change, but not by sparing Brazilian land for forests and fuels. According to our simulation, subsidizing greater cattle density in Brazil might increase substantially the amount of cattle products Brazil produces, but might not actually prevent an increase in the overall area of pasture in Brazil. The mechanism for reduced emissions is displacement of cattle production and associated deforestation in other countries 13

14. Pitfalls (3): Rangeland Performance Metrics Needed tonsDM/ha (ILRI estimates) 14

15. Findings Science and data gaps create uncertainty about the viability of cattle ranching intensification as a climate mitigation strategy with livelihoods benefits. To be verifiable, cattle ranching intensification programs (CRIPs) should funds cattle systems data and science. Viability is strongly contingent on the system boundary of the analysis conducted. Consistency is important, entirely normative choices are inevitable. How short is the short run? 15

16. References Angelsen, A. (2010). Policies for reduced deforestation and their impact on agricultural production. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Bustamante, M., Nobre, C., & Smeraldi, R. (2009). Estimating Recent Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Cattle Raising in Brazil. São Paulo, Brazil: Friends of the Earth, Brazilian Amazon. Cohn, A., Mosnier, A., Havlik, P., Valin, H., Obersteiner, M., & O'Hare, M. (In Preparation). Cattle Ranching Intensification Policies in Brazil Can Spare Land in Other Countries. Cohn, A., & O'Hare, M. (In Preparation). Agricultural Intensification Processes on Large Farms In MatoGrosso State, Brazil: Climate Costs and Benefits Correa, E., Costa, F., de MeloFilho, G., & de Aragao Pereira, M. (2006). Improved Production Systems for Beef Cattle in MatoGrosso do Sul State (Portuguese). Campo Grande, Brazil: The Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation. da Silva, H., Koehler, H., Moraes, A., Guimarães, V., Hack, E., & Carvalho, P. (2008). Análise da viabilidadeeconômica da produção de leite a pasto e com suplementosnaregião dos Campos Gerais-Parana. Cienc. Rural, 38(2), 445-450. Ecofys. (2011). Certification Module for Low Indirect Impacts Biofuels: Field testing version Embassy of Brazil. (2010). Brazil's Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Activites. from http://unfccc.int/files/meetings/cop_15/copenhagen_accord/application/pdf/brazilcphaccord_app2.pdf Federal Government of Brazil. (2004). Action Plan for the Prevention of Deforestation in the Amazon (Portuguese). Relatôrio da Presidéncia da República, Casa Civil, Retrieved October, 12, 2009, from http://www.planalto.gov.br/casacivil/desmat.pdf Gouvello, C. (2010). Brazil Low Carbon Country Case Study. Washington D.C.: World Bank: Sustainable Development Department of the Latin America and Caribbean Region. Green, R., Cornell, S., Scharlemann, J., & Balmford, A. (2005). Farming and the Fate of Wild Nature. Science, 307(5709), 550-555. Greenpeace. (2009). Slaughtering the Amazon. Washington DC: Greenpeace International. Rueda, B., Blake, R., Nicholson, C., Fox, D., Tedeschi, L., Pell, A., et al. (2003). Production and economic potentials of cattle in pasture-based systems of the western Amazon region of Brazil. Journal of Animal Science, 81(12), 2923. Vilela, D., Lima, J., Resende, J., & Verneque, R. (2006). Desempenho de vacas da raçaholandesaempastagem de coastcross. R. Bras. Zootec, 35(2), 555-561. 16