Presentation by Cristina Tirado, DVM, PhD, Director of the Center for Public Health and Climate Change, at the 2012 Agriculture and Rural Development Day in Rio de Janiero, Learning Event No. 8, Session 2: Ensuring nutrition while fostering healthy and sustainable eating patterns.

1. Reshaping food access and consumption
patterns to ensure nutritional needs while
fostering healthy and sustainable eating habits
worldwide
Cristina Tirado von der Pahlen, DVM, MS, PhD
PHI Center for Public Health and Climate Change

2. Global Environmental and Climate Change
Climate change
Stratospheric Diverse pathways
Land degradation
ozone depletion
Agro-ecosystem
UV exposure
Productivity
Nutrition & Health
Conflict
Decline in Water
ecosystem quantity Altered
services and safety precipitation
Loss of Biodiversity Freshwater decline
ecosystem function
Adapted from WHO, 2003

3. Summary of Direction, Magnitude, and Certainty
of Projected Health Impacts (IPCC: 2007)
Negative Impact Positive Impact
Very High Confidence
Effects on geographic range & incidence of
malaria
High Confidence
Undernutrition & consequent disorders
Injuries, deaths, disease - Extreme events
(heatwaves, floods, droughts, fires, etc)
Cardio-respiratory diseases - poor air quality
Cold-related deaths
Medium Confidence
Diarrhoeal diseases

4. The human face of climate change
925 million people suffer from long-term hunger
By 2080 1 - 3 billion people will experience water scarcity
200 to 600 million, hunger (IPCC 2007)

5. Calorie availability in 2050 is likely to decline throughout the
developing world resulting in 21% more undernourished
children
Number of Malnourished Children in Sub-Saharan Africa (millions)

6. Copyright: Barry Popkin
• Chronic, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) cause 63%
of global deaths (35 million), 80% in LIMIC.
• Total deaths due to NCDs are projected to rise to 52
million by 2030.
• Some 1 billion adults and 20 million children are
estimated to be overweight.
• Diets low fruit and vegetable intake – high saturated
fats and low physical activity
www.unscn.org

7. Growth in per capita consumption of
meat to 2030 Source: Msangi and Rosegrant, 2011

8. Green House Gas emissions by food -
(Weber and Mathews, 2009)

9. To meet the recommended target of reducing UK emissions from
the concentrations recorded in 1990 by 80% by 2050
 necessary to reduce livestock production in 30%
the burden of ischaemic heart disease of reducing 30%
consumption of animal products would decrease by about 15% in
the UK and 16% in São Paulo city

10. Assessing the Environmental Impacts of
Consumption and Production (UNEP,2010)
“As the global population surges towards a
predicted 9.1 billion people by 2050, western
tastes for diets rich in meat and dairy products are
unsustainable”
“global shift towards a vegan diet is
vital to save the world from hunger, fuel poverty and
the worst impacts of climate change”

11. Dietary Recommendations Swedish National
Food Admin. (2009)
Meat (beef, lamb, Eat less, reduce portion size.
pork, chicken) Eat locally produced and grass fed animals
Fish and shellfish choose seafood with sustainable eco-labels
From stable fish stocks
Fruits, Seasonal and locally produced
vegetables, and Pesticide free and organic
leguminoses Fiber rich & leguminoses
Potatoes, cereals Locally grown – reduce rice intake
Cooking fat Choose rape seed and olive oil– reduce palm
Water Choose tap water
Locally produced/packed

12. Sustainable diets
Co-benefits
• Healthy – diet rich in fruits & vegetables
(400gr/day) can save 2.7 million lives
• Environmentally sustainable
• Socially equitable
A Win-Win situation and common goal

13. Child malnutrition under base-line and diet
scenarios for High Income countries, Brazil & China
Msangi and Rosegrant 2011

14. Comprehensive impact assessments
multiple co-benefits
EC Group of Ethics in Science and Technology Agriculture (2008)
Sustainability
Food & nutrition Life cycle
Security Ethics Assessments
Socio-economic Health Impact
Fair Trade Assessments

15. Health Indicators for sustainable
agriculture, food and nutrition security
Health outcomes:
•anemia in women of reproductive age;
•stunting in children under 5 years;
•obesity in children under 5 and in adults;
Food access and dietary quality and sustainable foods production:
•adequate access to protein supply;
•excessive adult saturated fat consumption;
•household dietary diversity; and
Food market/trade policies supporting health and sustainability:
•countries that have phased out use of antibiotics as growth promoters;
•health impact assessment in agricultural policies, trade plans.
•compliance with food safety standards

16. •

17. “Creating a climate for Health…”
http://www.climatehealthconnect.org/

18. Climate change impacts on children stunting
(Lloyd et al. 2012)
• relative increase in moderate stunting of
1% to 29% in 2050 compared to a future without
climate change.
• Severe stunting estimated to increase by 23%
(central sub- Saharan Africa) to 62% (South
Asia).