Arizona Broadband Policy Past, Present, and Future Presentation 3/25/24
Du Global Energy Overview 5 6 09
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3. Developed Countries vs. Developing Countries Population & GDP Growth Profile Economies need to grow consistently to avoid Recession USA : 06 pop. 307M India: 06 pop. 1,100M China: 06 pop. 1,280M Japan 06 pop. 127M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 2000 GDP: $ 9.8T 2030GDP: $20.8T -2-4% growth 2 nd in 1990 to 1 st in 2030 2000 GDP: $0.5T 2030GDP: $ 4.9T 6- 9% growth 8 -12% growth 2000 GDP: $1.1T 2030GDP: $ 14.3T 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 9 th in 1990 to 15 th in 2030 2000 GDP: $4.2T 2030GDP: $ 5.8T OECD* Europe: 06 pop. 400M 1990 to 2030 practically flat 2000 GDP: $11T 2030GDP: $20T -1-3% growth Adapted from IMF & Goldman Sachs data Population & Economic Growth specially from China will CAUSE….. India while projected to have the largest population in the world will have a much smaller GDP compared to China in 2030. China will be 70% of US GDP by 2030 without considering PPP… With PPP China will exceed US GDP *OECD abbr. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Brazil Russia
4. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT OECD Europe & USA Energy Usage Overview USA ‘ 06 pop. 307M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 Quadrillion Btu Steady Economic Growth in USA & OECD Europe CAUSES… …… increased demand for Energy … adapted from EIA databases OECD: 06 pop. 400M 1990 to 2030 practically flat 2000 GDP: $11T 2030GDP: $16T While 23 countries under OECD Europe have higher population & GDP than USA, it consumes 25% less energy & creates 40% more energy from renewables compared to USA & the gap has been increasing Issue # 1: USA Consumes 54% more energy/capita than OECD Europe while having the same GDP/Capita Profile 1990 2010 2030
5. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of rapid growth in developing countries China will consume more energy than USA by 2020 & by 2030 will consume 30% more energy than USA Jockeying for limited fossil fuel resources increases exponentially USA ‘ 06 pop. 307M ‘ 06 pop. 1,280M CHINA 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 Quadrillion Btu CAUSES Population & High Economic Growth in China and other developing countries CAUSES… …… Rapid Growth in Energy Consumption … adapted from EIA databases India is a non player as far as current energy generation trends and pollution it causes globally. 1990 2010 2030
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7. FOSSIL OIL STATUS QUO Limited Resources will Escalate Price and Energy Security Issues Exponentially Mid-East Oil Russia Canada As per IEA: The world has to invest $30 Trillion by 2030 to tap new oilfields as current ones dwindle to meet the increased demand. INCREASED DEMAND FOR LIMITED RESOURCES OF FOSSIL OIL WILL ESCALATE PRICES AND INCREASE ENERGY SECURITY ISSUES EXPONENTIALLY Intake figures are in Quadrillion Btu Number of years if current oil consumption Projections by EIA are followed Black Arrows are reliable sources to USA Red Arrows are not so reliable sources to USA USA prosperity will hit a wall every-time economy heats up Economic volatility & confrontations will escalate even more. Nigeria Venezuela Wall Street Article Nov 14 th 2008 Without imports US runs out of oil rapidly
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11. FOSSIL COAL STATUS QUO GHG FROM COAL BASED POWER PLANTS IN CHINA ARE MAJOR CONECERNS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE US has sufficient coal reserves for 200+ years The issue is cleaner energy 70% of China’s energy comes from Coal, the only fossil fuel China can tap cheaply internally. At the projected rate of consumption, China may run out of coal in less than 50 years. Very soon China will have to import Coal too. China is aggressively setting up its footprint in South Africa and Australia to tap its resources. On a given day in 2008, 25% of pollution in LA comes from China The world’s coal energy reserves are two times more than oil and gas reserves combined. USA needs to lead the world in finding innovative solutions to find clean coal technologies as the owner of world’s largest coal reserves . Japan faces an exponential pollution ISSUES from China compared to USA
12. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of Key Dynamics Shaping Energy & Climate Tsunami Energy Consumption in Quadrillion Btu China will consume more energy than USA by 2030 China exceeded USA in total CO2 emissions by 2008 and will emit double of USA by 2030 GLOBALLY, GHG emissions will double by 2030 From 1990 levels QBtu CAUSE SOURCES OF ENERGY EFFECT
13. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT Implications of Key Dynamics Shaping Energy & Climate Tsunami Energy Consumption in Quadrillion Btu China will consume more energy than USA by 2030 ‘ 06 pop. 307M ‘ 06 pop. 1,280M 3 rd in 1990 to 3 rd in 2030 1 st in 1990 to 2 nd in 2030 The Debate: per capita or absolute On per Capita Basis: USA emitted 5 times more CO2 than China in 2006 and will STILL emit twice as much in 2030 UNLESS WE CHANGE THE WAY WE GENERATE ENERGY QBtu CAUSE EFFECT Per Capita Data
14. The “FAT TAIL” by 2050- 2100 at the current trend rate of greenhouse gas release: There is a 99% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 3 degrees Celsius or 5.4 degrees Fahrenheit There is a 50% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 5.5 degrees Celsius or 10 degrees Fahrenheit The world will see severe environmental impact that may be irrevocable There is a 10% probability the Global Temperature will rise by 10+ degrees Celsius or 18 degrees Fahrenheit High likelyhood of Environmental Calamity impact that will be irrevocable For a more complete presentation please refer to “ Carbon Dioxide: What is Earth’s Point of No Return?” Alexander E. MacDonald, Director, NOAA ESRL See VSNI website: Data& Links & NOAA website for more .
15. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT What is the Take Away from the last Few Slides? Climate change is an EFFECT The way we use our energy is the CAUSE. Can we change the way we use our energy to create a vibrant economic growth engine AND cure climate change? Our future generation is depending on us. You treat the cause to change the effect We need a National Comprehensive Vision and Deployment Strategy. We need stretch goals to overcome our severe Economic & Environmental crisis. Stretch goals will take people out of their comfort zone, but has a deeply researched deployable strategy designed to overcome crisis of gigantic proportions…. Competing for the Future: Hamel & Prahalad
16. A STATUS QUO GLOBAL ENERGY SNAPSHOT What is the Take Away from the last Few Slides? Because of the policies of the past, USA does not have a comprehensive E nergy Vision & Deployment Strategy that realistically tackle the looming E nvironment Disaster, while reviving the E conomy We cannot change the past, but we can certainly control our destiny, even at this late hour. We just need resolve as a nation to take on stretch goals. To start the process we adapted the model from the German Advisory Council for Global Change, who seem to have one of the most aggressive vision for a comprehensive energy initiative to tackle climate change. WE NEED TO RAPIDLY TRANSITION TOWARDS CLEAN SUSTAINABLE ENERGY. WHERE IS USA SEI COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE WORLD?
17. Oil Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Biomass Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants Solar Thermal Heating Other Renewables Global Energy Usage:The German Comprehensive Vision By the German Advisory Council for Global Change Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year (equivalent) Germans represent in exajoules Energy from Fossil Fuels Energy from Renewable Fuels Note: Germans do not have any Fossil Fuel Resources $20Trillion $5 Trillion $10 Trillion
18. Oil Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Biomass Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants Solar Thermal Heating Other Renewables Global Energy Usage:The German Comprehensive Vision Overlaying the EIA trend-line on the GAC model and potential impact of GHG Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year (equivalent) Energy from Fossil Fuels Energy from Renewable Fuels 1950 CO 2 280 ppm 1850 CO 2 230 ppm? 2006 CO 2 380 ppm 2030 CO 2 500 ppm? 2050 CO 2 800 ppm? Current EIA USA , China & India Fossil Fuel Consumption Trend line
19. Countries with Leading Renewable Energy Initiatives & 2007 USA Energy Consumption Profile Hydropower: Norway 98% of electric 60% of total energy needs Nuclear: France 80% of electric 39% of total energy needs Wind & Solar: Germany Wind installed: 22.2 GW Solar PV Installed: 3.8GW >20% of Electric Bio fuels: Brazil 40% of Transportation fuel 11% of total energy needs USA is a poor second on all Renewable Energy components when compared to OECD Europe While still being the first by a huge margin for Fossil fuels. Offshore Wind Power: Denmark 30% of electric needs
20. Petroleum 11,664 B kWh Coal 6,682 B kWh Natural Gas 6,916 B kWh Nuclear Energy 2462 B kWh Renewable Energy 1,993 B kWh Transportation 8,499 B kWh Industrial 6,271 kWh Residential & Commercial 3,106 B kWh Electric Power 11,899 B kWh USA Primary Energy Consumption by Source & Sector for 2007 SOURCE SECTOR CONSUMPTION Adapted from EIA 51% 10% 30% 9% 100% 30% 34% 34% 3% 91% <1% 8% 2% 5% 24% 70% 96% 2% 2% 51% 1% 9% 2% 2% 37% 75% 17% 21% 9% 6% 9% Total= 29,717 B kWh Total= 29,776 B kWh OUTPUT 67% loss 3,970B kWh 40% 21.1% 10.4% 28.5% 8.3% 6.7% 22.5% 23.3% 39.3% ICE 82.4% loss 1,496B kWh 44%
21. Wind Solar Photovoltaic Solar Thermal Understanding the CSF’s for Power Parity Index for SEI A perspective adapted from Vinod Khosla’s presentation at NREL Forum Oct, 2008 Cost/W Time Coal 2020 6 Cents/KWh 12 Cents/KWh 30 Cents/KWh 2008 Relevance of Scale Relevance Cost Relevance of Technology Adoption Curve Need to Subsidize 2040? PPI = 1 PPI < 1 PPI = 5 We will need radical new innovations to go beyond 15% of Total Global Energy needs from Renewable Energy, and it needs to be sustainable: stand on its own legs and be economically compelling We can get to 15% of Total Global Energy Needs from Renewable Energy, especially Solar and Wind with current technologies by setting stretch goals & speed of deployment. * Need to work together
22. Renewable Energy Initiatives Powerful Stretch Goals for Renewable Energy Choices Eliminate Fossil Oil Use totally by 2020 Al Gore: Repower America? Shai Agassi Project Better Place RE<C - Eric Schmidt, Google Renewable Energy costs less than Coal
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24. Renewable Energy Initiatives Powerful Stretch Goals & Structured Approach to Economically Viable Sustainable Renewable Energy Choices
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27. Twenty years from now instead of fighting over a dwindling resource like fossil based oil to generate our energy that increases our pollution levels to the point of no return for our planet, we generate more and more clean, sustainable energy because it actually helps clean up the environment while fueling our economic growth. inv VEST plans to transform this imagination into reality. Imagine a paradigm shift: We believe the 30 million student community in USA in high schools, colleges and universities can be GAME CHANGERS in the way we currently generate and use our energy and help in the rapid transition to clean sustainable energy initiatives. Here is How we Plan to do it:
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30. Top Down Initiative SEI Marketplace Idea Exchange & Implementation Center Generate, debate, deploy Focused initiatives Among thought-leaders & Influencers AMBASSADORS THOUGHT LEADERS SUPPORTERS BOA Bottom-up Initiative Massive Ground Swell Support From Student & Citizens Communities SEI COMMUNITY PAGE What’s Hot, What’s Cool Challenge BOD GLOBAL NATIONAL inv VEST Business Model A Nonprofit Organization Launch 5/26/09 YE 2009 YE 2010 YE 2015 BOA 6 - 10 12 - .20 30 -50 100 Ambassadors 8 - 12 20 - 40 60 - 100 200 Thought Leaders 30 -50 100 - 300 400+ 1,000 Supporters 1,000 10,000 plus 100,000 plus 1 M+ Economic Impact & Funding $1- $3M $1M $50 - $100M $2M+ $200B Plus $20M
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32. The inv VEST Virtual Market Place Matrix for Sustainable Energy Initiatives Use this Matrix to Map & identify the right ambassadors and thought-leaders Functional Clusters Energy Clusters Visit www.invVEST.org to get to SEI market place, Strategy Papers & useful resources.
33. Vertical Clusters SEI Traits 0-10 BASE MAPPING TOOL: SEI Selection Criteria. 6 Traits Defined for Sustainable Energy (SE). The index of 0 means worst, 10 means best. If the energy source does not have the potential satisfy these six criteria It may not qualify for SEI, but it may still be a renewable energy source.
34. The Current State USA Energy Usage Projections USA will continue to rely heavily on fossil fuels
35. Oil Wind Hydropower Nuclear Gas Coal Biomass Solar Photovoltaic & Thermal Distributed: Home, Commercial Centralized: Power Plants Solar Thermal Heating Other Renewables Three Strategies We Plan To Use for USA focused inv VEST initiatives Adapting USA Centric Vision from German Advisory Council for Global Change Energy Consumption in Trillions of KWH/Year Dynamic 1: Fossil Fuel USE Shift Dynamic 2: Energy Efficiency & Conservation Reduce Total Global Energy Use Dynamic 3: Technology Enablers for faster economic parity to fossil fuels Time
36. Speicific Initatives for inv VEST SEI Initiative 3 Students & Citizens Community Groundswell in invVEST initiatives Will strongly influence Initiative 1 Breakthrough Solar Initiative Rooftop solar Initiative 2
37. The Outcome of successful inv VEST SEI Energy Usage shifts to SEI majority (65%)
38. Total energy needed globally is 100,000 times less than the amount of solar energy falling on earth. Solar Energy generates less than 0.05% of total global energy. If solar energy generates 25% of global energy, it needs to scale 10,000 times, creating a $3 Trillion Solar Energy Market. Focus on slicing the pie or make the pie exponentially bigger through massive scaling? Total energy need of the world Total energy from Sun falling on earth surface Total energy need of the world Current Solar Energy generated as % of total energy needs Initiative I: Solar Energy Opportunity Understanding the Exponential Size of the Pie
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41. Initiative I: Why Break Through Solar Initiative . Vital Statistics Country Germany Country USA Sate Colorado County Boulder Population 80M 307M 5.1M 400K GDP $3.5 T $14.5 T $241B $22B Solar Installed in 2008 1,800MW 340 MW 30MW 1MW? Equalized to USA GDP To match Germany 7,400 MW 123 MW 11 MW Breakthrough Solar For 2010 6,000 MW 120 MW ??? Breakthrough Solar For 2020 137 GW 18GW Investment next 7 yrs Return by 2030 $240B 1,200B Solar Revenue 2030 $1,400B $110B Savings from Oil -$20/B$ $3,000B Jobs 2030 3.8M 700,000
42. Colorado based Renewable Energy Initiatives Boulder Denver Golden Windsor Fort Collins School of Mines CU CSU Xcel NREL abound Solar Vestas Ascent Solar Conoco Philips 2010? UCD DU RMI Governor's Aggressive Energy Initiative NREL & Governor’s Aggressive Renewable Energy Initiative are the biggest reasons for spawning the industry… We now need to take it to the next level I-25 I-70 Primestar Solar More than 250 SEI based entities in Colorado and growing… Growing Opportunities for SEI savvy workforce & Management Visit www.invVEST.org Look for resources Under media center tab.
43. Initiative II: Energy Efficiency & Conservation * Guesswork, need to have real data Country USA State Colorado County Boulder* Community Superior* Population 307M 5.1M 400K 12,000 GDP $14.5 T $241B $22B $780M Energy Usage 29.5T kWh 490B kWh 38B kWh 1.1B kWh 1% Energy Saved in next 12 months 295B kWh 4.9B kWh 0.38B kWh 11 M kWh Approximate $ Value Energy saved $30B $500M $40M $1.2M Investment Required With avg. 3 years ROI $90B $1.5B $120M $3.6M Energy Saved in 2020 $360B $6B $480M $14.4M Jobs Created $ Value $120B $2B $160M $4.8M Jobs 2.4M 40,000 3,200 96
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46. “ Imagine a Handoff Clean Sustainable Energy Fueling our future economy, curing our environment… Thank You
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51. OUR VISION: Enabling Massive Scale Sustainable Energy Initiatives will generate the next vibrant economy while protecting our planet for future generations to enjoy. Together , we can.
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54. VSNI Renewable Energy Initiatives Where are we? A Global Perspective In 2005, Colorado consumed 1.43Quadrillion Btu/year or 1.4% of total US consumption China becomes the largest consumer of energy by 2020 Total CO 2 eq. emission Exceeded US in 2008. China will run out of coal & oil in less than 30 years
55. VSNI Renewable Energy Initiatives Where are we? A Global Perspective World’s highest %, using internal resources World’s highest %, using imported resources Significant exporter or abundant resource 4,022 6,704
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57. Renewable Energy Initiatives Strategic Approach to Economically Sustainable Renewable Energy Choices If solar performance & efficiencies track Moore’s Law for computing price performance, Solar installed cost and $/KWH will drop much more dramatically than this scenario. Will need exponential improvements in networked storage, smart grid technologies. Radical /Revolutionary Technology needed
58. Renewable Energy Initiatives Strategic Approach to Economically Sustainable Renewable Energy Choices Solar CSF: Replicating Moore's Law for Cost, Exponential improvement in storage & smart grid Algae CSF: GMO for exponential increase in yield & extraction efficiencies, economies of scale for bioreactors
59. GLOBAL ELECTRICITY USAGE USA, OECD Europe & China consumed 54% of global electricity produced Electricity constitutes 40% of Global Energy Consumption A Strong Case for Energy Efficiency & Conservation Programs USA consumes 53% more Electricity than OECD Europe Which has 25% more population and 15% more GDP Can we have quick wins with Energy Efficiency & Conservation? We can quickly ramp up 1,000,000 plus jobs, with attractive ROI