1. Current and near-term emissions impacts of
plug-in electric vehicles
Marcus Alexander, EPRI
Manager, Vehicle Systems Analysis
Net Zero Cities
October 23, 2013

2. • Background
• Recent emission trends
• Future potential
• Wrap-up
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3. • Background
• Recent emission trends
• Future potential
• Wrap-up
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4. How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?
• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can
reinforce other transportation initiatives:
– Vehicle downscaling
– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing
– Mass transit
– Freight delivery efficiency
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5. How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities?
• From a transportation standpoint, electrification can
reinforce other transportation initiatives:
– Vehicle downscaling
– Car sharing / bike sharing / anything sharing
– Mass transit
– Freight delivery efficiency
• From an energy standpoint, electrification decouples
energy generation from energy use, allowing:
– Diversification
– Fleet emissions reductions
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6. How do electric vehicles fit into Net Zero Cities
• This discussion will focus on
personal cars
• It’s important to remember
that for these, the primary
competition is between
electricity and gasoline
• The analysis looks at
‘conventional’ electricity as a
starting point
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7. • Background
• Recent emission trends
• Future potential
• Wrap-up
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8. Recent emissions trends
• Grid emissions of criteria pollutants like NOx and SO2 have
decreased rapidly as regulations have tightened.
• Grid emissions of CO2 have decreased, but not as rapidly.
• It is unclear what will happen as explicit CO2 regulations
are implemented, but there is significant potential for
reductions.
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9. Generation sources (National)
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10. SO2 emissions reductions
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11. NOx emissions reductions
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12. CO2 emissions reductions
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13. CO2 emissions reductions
50 mpg
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14. Generation sources (NW-Central)
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15. • Background
• Recent emission trends
• Future potential
• Wrap-up
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16. Future potential
• Current policy will significantly decrease NOx emissions,
SO2 emissions, and other emissions not described above.
• CO2 emissions are expected to decrease under current
policy.
• There is the potential for significant CO2 reductions under
different policy scenarios.
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17. Projected SO2 emissions (preliminary)
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18. Projected NOx emissions (preliminary)
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19. Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)
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20. Projected CO2 emissions (preliminary)
50 mpg
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21. • Background
• Aggregation levels
• Recent emission trends
• Future potential
• Wrap-up
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22. Wrap-up
Marcus Alexander
malexander@epri.com
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23. Backup: Non-road applications
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24. EPRI Non-road Electric Transportation Program
Airports
Warehouses
– Ground support
– Forklifts
equipment
– Truck
– Ground power
refrigeration units
Mining
Truck Stops
– EV’s and Conveyers
– Shore Power
Rail
– On-board power
– Locomotives,
Seaports
cranes
– Cranes
Agriculture
– All terrain vehicles
– Cargo handling
– Tractors
– Ships/Dredges
Construction
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25. Backup: Aggregation levels
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26. Aggregation levels
• Looking at statewide emissions doesn’t work well; there is
too much sharing of electricity between states.
• National emissions are generally the best way to look at
trends, but doesn’t provide regional detail, which can be
quite interesting.
• For its REGEN model, EPRI created a set of region
definitions that group states into blocks that represent
electricity flows
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27. State emissions intensity
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28. State electricity trade
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29. REGEN regions
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30. REGEN regions
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31. Backup: 2 decades of emissions
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32. SOx
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33. NOx
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34. CO2
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35. Backup: Net emissions and air
quality changes (from 2007
study)
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36. Net Changes in Criteria Emissions Due to
PHEVs (2030 modeling)
100,000
Power Plant Emissions
• Emissions under caps (SO2,
NOx, Hg) are essentially
unchanged
0
-50,000
Emissions (tons)
• Primary PM emissions
increase (defined by a
performance standard)
50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
-250,000
Vehicle Emissions
-300,000
• NOx, VOC, SO2, PM all
decrease
• Significant NOx, VOC
reductions at vehicle tailpipe
• Reduction in refinery and
related emissions
© 2013 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
-350,000
-400,000
SOx
NOx
VOC
PM
On-Road Vehicle
-7,716
-236,292
-234,342
-9,255
Refinery and Other
Stationary
-23,549
-20,076
-17,804
-3,282
0
-1,293
-103,323
-101
-16,284
58,916
0
49,434
-47,549
-198,745
-355,469
36,796
Distributed Upstream
Power Plant
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37. Air quality impacts of PEVs
Change in 8-Hour Ozone Design Value (ppb)
PHEV Case – Base Case
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38. PHEVs Improve Overall Air & Water Quality
Reduced Deposition of Sulfates, Nitrates, Nitrogen, Mercury
Change in U.S. Deposition Flux (Units Specified Below)
50,000
0
-50,000
-100,000
-150,000
-200,000
-250,000
Sulfate (ton)
Nitrate (ton)
Nitrogen (ton N)
Mercury (g)
Benefit above Threshold
-41,472
-45,490
-32,413
-146,370
Benefit below Threshold
-12,416
-20,995
-22,784
-90,202
Disbenefit above Threshold
23,211
1,581
0
19,712
Disbenefit below Threshold
4,562
3,396
233
28,693
-26,114
-61,508
-54,963
-188,166
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