1. Understanding Voting
Dr. Christopher S. Rice
University of Kentucky

3. Models of Voting Behavior
• The sociological model
• The social-psychological model
• The rational choice model

4. Sociological Model

5. Columbia Model

6. (cc) 2007 flickr user Roadsidepictures

7. Group-Level
Characteristics
Determine Voter
Preference (cc) 2005 Flickr user hometownzero

8. Socio-Economic
(cc) 2008 Flickr user Loungerie
Status (SES)

9. Religion
(cc) 2008 Flickr user Brandon Brubaker

10. Where You
Live (cc) 2005 flickr user archibald jude

11. Who Votes?
Higher incomes.
Very young unlikely to vote.
Unemployed have a very low rate of
turnout.
Latinos have especially low turnout
rate, but it is increasing.
More educated more likely to vote.

16. Problems

17. WHY?

18. y

19. n

20. Socio-Psychological
Model

21. Columbia Model

22. (cc) 2006 flickr user thesyemism
Individual, not Group, Attitudes

23. Vote Choice Criteria
Prospective Retrospective
Voting Voting
(Issues) (Performance)
Party ID Candidate Image

24. 5 Things To Know
Decision Rule
Information Required
Voter Rationality
Elite Accountability
Problems

25. Vote Choice Criteria
Prospective Retrospective
Voting Voting
(Issues) (Performance)
Party ID Candidate Image

26. Prospective Voting
(Issues)
Decision Rule
Information Required
Voter Rationality
Elite Accountability
Problems

27. Vote Choice Criteria
Prospective Retrospective
Voting Voting
(Issues) (Performance)
Party ID Candidate Image

28. Retrospective Voting
(Performance)
Decision Rule
Information Required
Voter Rationality
Elite Accountability
Problems

29. Vote Choice Criteria
Prospective Retrospective
Voting Voting
(Issues) (Performance)
Party ID Candidate Image

30. Party ID
Decision Rule
Information Required
Voter Rationality
Elite Accountability
Problems

31. Vote Choice Criteria
Prospective Retrospective
Voting Voting
(Issues) (Performance)
Party ID Candidate Image

32. Candidate Image
Decision Rule
Information Required
Voter Rationality
Elite Accountability
Problems

33. Rational
Actor
Model

34. V=B>C

35. ?
?
(cc) 2008 Flickr user gutter

36. Information Costs
What does it cost in time,
money, effort to be informed?

37. +I = B > C

38. -I = B < C

39. Expected Benefits
benefits X probability of affecting
the outcome of the vote

40. Heuristics
(Cognitive Shortcuts)

41. (cc) 2005 Flickr user Roadsidepictures

42. Too Much Information =
Higher Information Costs

43. Problems

44. PROBLEMS
• Theory a poor match with reality
• Can lead to errors: non-optimal decisions vs. “reasonable”
• Information can make a difference
• Rational for individuals to be uninformed, but
collectively it’s irrational.
• Ignores costs at the collective level
• More informed public = more accountable elites
• Uninformed public susceptible to manipulation.

45. Michigan Model FTW!