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Research into Development: CIAT and
     CRS’s special relationship

            Andy Jarvis and Andre Zandstra
                    9th April 2013




         Since 1967 / Science to cultivate change   www.ciat.cgiar.org
The greatest food security
challenge ever in human history:

  How to feed a growing population
    with scarce land and water,
    a fast-changing climate, and
     inadequate investment in
        agricultural research!
CIAT: A partner in global research for a
          food secure future


• One of the 4 Centers that started the CGIAR, (founded in 1967)
  and currently operates from Kenya, Vietnam, and Colombia (HQ)
• Our mission is to reduce hunger and poverty, and improve
  human health in the tropics through research aimed at
  increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture
• 400 professional staff, 200 scientists working across Africa, Asia,
  and Latin America. Annual budget close to $100USM
CIAT is aligned with the
             CGIAR research portfolio
• CIAT is Lead Center of CCAFS and
  contributes to 11 other CGIAR Research
  Programs, including Genebanks
• About 90% of CIAT’s research agenda is
  fully integrated into the CGIAR Research
  Portfolio
• CIAT contributes to all four System Level
  Outcomes
• The focused diversity of CIAT’s research
  agenda enables the Center to position
  itself strongly within the CGIAR research
  portfolio
Improving agriculture and
              changing lives across the tropics




      Cali,




 Since the 1960s, with a                            Since the 1980s, with
current focus on Central   Since the 1980s, with   activities now in China,
America, Colombia, and      activities now in 11       Vietnam, Laos,
       the Amazon            African countries     Cambodia, and Thailand
Focus of CIAT’s research for development

                      Natural
Productivity                                Policy
                     Resources
       Bean             Soil Health &      Climate Change
                        Productivity
  Tropical Forages
                                               Gender

                     Restoring Degraded
      Cassava
                         Landscapes
                                          Linking Farmers to
                                               Markets
       Rice
                          Carbon
 Genetic Resources     Sequestration
                                          Impact Assessment
Examples of Impacts

• Over 5.3 million rural households in sub-
  Saharan Africa have adopted modern bean
  varieties over the last 17 years, generating
  benefits worth nearly US$200 million
• Adoption of improved cassava varieties in
  Thailand and Vietnam has nearly reached
  90%, creating benefits worth almost $12
  billion over the last 20 years
• Improved forages now cover an area
  estimated at 25.4 million hectares in tropical
  America, generating huge benefits through
  improved livestock production – estimated
  at $1 billion in Colombia, for example
• Nearly 60% of Latin America’s rice area is
  planted to improved rice, with benefits
  valued at $860 million from 1967 to 1995
  alone
CIAT and CRS: A Special Relationship
• Staff rotation : CIAT -> CRS!
• Joint projects:
    • Tortillas on the Roaster
    • Learning Alliances
    • Borderlands
    • Green Water Initiative 2
    • Coffee Under Pressure
    • Carbon insetting
    • Seed systems, soils etc.
• Mutual leveraging of expertise, partners and approaches
Leb by




Climate Change, Agriculture and
     Food Security (CCAFS)
     CGIAR Research Program




                                  1 January 2013
Leb by



Global alliance
15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices




  Lead center - CIAT




                                             1 January 2013
Liderado por



  Objectives

Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation
and mitigation practices, technologies and
policies for agriculture and food systems.

Support the inclusion of agricultural issues
in climate change policies, and of climate
issues in agricultural policies, at all levels.

Commit to data availability, cross-center
cooperation, and making an impact on
both the global and regional level.




                                                      1 January 2013
CCAFS Framework
                         Adapting Agriculture to
                     Climate Variability and Change

 Technologies, practices, partnerships and
 policies for:
                                                        Improved
  1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate                Environmental     Improved
     Change                                              Health           Rural
  2. Adaptation through Managing                                       Livelihoods
     Climate Risk                                                                       Improved
  3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation                                                   Food
                                                                                         Security
       4. Integration for Decision Making
          • Linking Knowledge with Action
          • Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis
            and Planning
          • Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis


                                                          Enhanced adaptive capacity
                                                             in agricultural, natural
                                                          resource management, and
                                                                 food systems

                                                                                         1 January 2013
Place-based field work
                                          Sur de Asia:
                                          Lider Regional

                                          Pramod Aggarwal
      Africa del Oeste
      Lider Regional

      Robert Zougmoré




                                                           Africa del Este
                                                           Lider Regional

                                                           James Kinyangi
                 Latinoamerica:
                 Lider Regional

                 Ana Maria Loboguerrero




                                                                             1 January 2013
THE VISION
To adapt farming
systems, we need
to:
• Close the
production gap by
effectively using
                      Progressive
current
technologies,
practices and
                       Adaptation
policies
• Increase the bar:
develop new ways
to increase food
production
potential
• Enable policies
and institutions,
from the farm to
national level
THE VISION
• Climate-related
risk impedes
development,
leading to chronic
poverty and
dependency
• Actions taken
now can reduce
                           Risk
vulnerability in the
short term and
enhance resilience
                       Management
in the long term
•Improving current
climate risk
management will
reduce obstacles
to making future
structural
adaptations.
VISION          Pro-poor
Short-term:
Identifying
options feasible
                    Mitigation
for smallholder
mitigation and
trade-offs with
other outcomes
Long-term:
Addressing
conflict between
achieving food
security and
agricultural
mitigation
VISION
•Provide an
analytical and
diagnostic
                    Integration
framework,
grounded in the
policy context
• Synthesize
lessons learned
•Effectively
engage with rural
stakeholders and
decision makers
•Communicate
likely effects of
specific policies
and interventions
•Build partners’
capacity
Agriculture and Rural Development Day:
    Engaging world policy leaders in the climate change dialogue

•Agriculture and Rural
Development Day 2011 +
                                               The analysis What Next for
2012 brought together                          Agriculture After Durban? was co-
several hundred policy-                        authored by a group that includes
                                               members of the Commission on
makers, farmers, scientists                    Sustainable Agriculture and Climate
and development experts                        Change. It was covered by media
                                               outlets worldwide.
from around the world
•Recommendations to the
UNFCC COP-17 conference in
Durban, South Africa, Rio+20
and Qatar COP-18
•Organized by CCAFS and
partners
Analogue Tool: Finding Tomorrow’s agriculture
                    today
Methodology development                                        Regional trainings
                                           Katmandu
                                            Dakar
                                              Nairobi




 http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/Analogues/
                                                • 15 countries
                                                • 70 local researchers
                                                • WP:Climate Analogues: Finding
                                                tomorrow's agriculture today
Farms of in Tanzania
                                FOTF the future
                   Journey to Yamba’s plausible futures
Analogue study Tour
Villages visited                                                                   Starting point
                                                           Lushoto
                                                           Mbuzii
                                                           Yamba


                                                            Kinole
                                                      Morogoro



                                         Mwitikilwa
-Market value chain social                                   -Weather station visit
enterprise visit                                             - Bean trial visit
- Input supply Stockists        Njombe                       - Tree nursery visit


                                             Nyombo
                                                                     Sepukila Village:
                                                                     -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and
                                                                     water conservation technique
                                                                     -Coffee nursery
                                                                     -Stoves
                                                                     Masasi Village:
                                                                     -Water source
                                          Mbinga                     -Fish pond
                                                                     -Biogas
                                                                     Mtama Village:
                                                                     - Bee keeping
Leb by

Climate smart villages:
Key agricultural activities for managing risks




                                                     1 January 2013
Where do we work?



CCAFS sites               Main crops                  Main livestock
                                                        (forages)
                 Maize        Beans      Wheat     Beef cattle       Goats
Borana(ET)
                (96.6%)      (86.4%)    (33.1%)      (93.2%)        (77.8%)
                 Maize      Sorghum      Beans        Goats      Chicken/hens
Nyando (KE)
                (99.2%)      (73.3%)    (34.4%)      (66.9%)        (61.2%)
                 Maize        Beans    Tomatoes   Chicken/hens    Dairy cows
Usambara (TZ)
                (87.1%)       (75%)      (29%)       (82.1%)        (56.4%)
                                         Sweet
Albertine       Cassava      Beans                Chicken/hens
                                       potatoes                  Pigs (63.1%)
Rift (UG)       (78.6%)     (68.4%)                  (82.5%)
                                        (59.8%)
Leb by




      Lushoto (Tanzania)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
  0




                        1 January 2013
Lushoto (Tanzania)

Weather reasons for adapting
                                                     Changes in land use and crop management
              a)   More erratic rainfall
                                                     - introduction of new, higher yielding crop varieties of maize, beans
              b)   ↘ overall rainfall (88%)
                                                       and tomatoes
              c)   ↗ amount of rainfall (39%)
              d)   more frequent droughts (71%)
                                                     - switching to disease resistant varieties of cassava, bananas and
              e)   earlier start of the rains 77%)
                                                       maize
              f)   Later start of rains (65%)
Drivers
• Availability of high yielding varieties
more resistant to pest and diseases
• More profitable market prices.
• Less productive land
Gender Dimensions

• Why consider gender?
   o To develop appropriate adaptation strategies for both male
     and female farmers (to ensure inclusion of female farmers)
• Findings (Context Specific)
   o Gender division of labor
   o Decision-making
   o Control and Access of Resources
Gender Division of Labor
Overall, men and women tend to report that
they themselves do most of the tasks

                     Women’s Reporting              Men’s Reporting

                                                                      Men
                                                                      Women
                                                                      Boys
                                                                      Girls


•   Examples:
     – Spraying was reported as a men’s task, and
     – Weeding mainly as a women’s task
Decision-Making
•   Across all 4 sites:
     – Women report that men make most decisions
     – Men report more decisions are taken jointly




     –                                         Example: Nyando, Kenya

             Women’s Reporting                            Men’s Reporting


                                                                            Men
                                                                            Women
                                                                            Together
Playing out transformative climate smart
adaptation in CCAFS benchmark sites in
East Africa: When, where, how and with
whom?
Persons and items distribution




Rash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made
Determinants of the degree
                        of adaptation – Poisson
                            regression model

Variable                               Coefficient                P-value
Lnage                                  -0.259                     0.034**
Help                                   0.281                      0.019**
Years of schooling                     0.025                      0.014**
Ln total asset value                   0.060                      0.096*
Government influence                   0.364                      0.002***
Less land productivity                 0.164                      0.060*
Ability to hire farm labour            0.231                      0.031**
Constant                               2.135                      0.002***
                                       Wald chi2(20)=104.63; p=0.000
                                       Alpha = 0.12
                                       N=131

Dependent variable = number of adaptation strategies undertaken
Getting to grips with climate adaptation:
            The right choices
Var. Carioca




Var. Jamapa    Var. Calima
                             Evaluating varietal adaptation
Likely yield with different planting dates
Modelling potential losses from extreme
 events with different planting dates
Benefits of potential adaptation options:
        conservation agriculture




                                     % yield loss
                % water deficit
Tortillas on the Roaster (TOR): Cambio Climático
y sistema de producción de maíz-frijol en Centroamérica.




  Un proyecto en colaboración con:
   Financiado por: The Howard G. Buffett Foundation
Cuales son las zonas que necesitan alta atención?


              Áreas donde los sistemas de producción de los cultivos de
              fríjol pueden ser adaptados
              Adaptation-Spots (mas del 25% perdida de producción)
              Enfocarse en la adaptación de los sistemas de
              producción.

              Áreas donde estos cultivos de fríjol ya no son una opción
              Hot-Spots (mas del 50% perdida de producción)
              Enfocarse en la diversificación de medios de
              subsistencia.

              Nuevas áreas donde aumenta la producción de los cultivos.
              Pressure-Spots
              Migración de agricultura– Riesgo de deforestación!
Results: Hot-spots for beans production areas in Central America
Tortillas on the Roaster (TOR): Cambio Climático
y sistema de producción de maíz-frijol en Centroamérica.
Se dedujeron cinco estrategias de adaptación a nivel de finca!

  Intensificación Sostenible: Dirigido a aumentar la productividad física, preservando los
  recursos naturales (tierra y agua) en sistemas productivos (Eco-eficiencia)

  Diversificación: Aumentar la cantidad de fuentes de consumo y los ingresos
  procedentes de la agricultura.

  Expansión: Expandir las dotaciones de los diferentes tipos de capitales.
  Incremento de ingresos no agrícolas: incrementar las fuentes de ingresos diferentes a
  los que están ligados a la agricultura.

  Abandonar la agricultura como estrategia de vida: La familia abandona la agricultura
  como fuente de consumo he ingresos.




   Un proyecto en colaboración con:
   Financiado por: The Howard G. Buffett Foundation
Rewarding for Ecosystem Services
        in watersheds
Different groups want different things
• Downstream
  o Urban dwellers want clean, reliable water supplies
  o Lowland farmers want cheap, reliable irrigation water
  o Tourists want clean, attractive water
• Midstream
  o Hydropower companies want reliable low-silt water
    without having to invest in large storage reservoirs
• Upstream
  o Highland communities want to live better
  o Citizens want to preserve highland ecosystem services
Peruvian case study, Canete River watershed – Current situation
                      Ecosystemanduse (m3/s)
                          River flow land uses
                          Water service provision
(4000-5800
Upper basin
(4000-5800
(4000-5800
Upper



                           (Water yield (mm))
               Extensive degrading0 grazing, subsistence
               agriculture     1111-1507
                         (mostly from springs)

               Hydropower company
                              51-256
Middle basin
(350 – 4000
(350 – 4000
(350 – 4000




               Shrimp growers

                                250, 64

               Urban dwellers 0-50
(0-350)
(0-350)
Lower basin
(0-350)




               Water inefficient commercial agriculture
               Tourists (rafting)
Desired situation
                Investment in
 (4000-5800
 Upper basin




                productive
                alternatives
 Middle basin
 (350 – 4000




                Watershed’s           Transfer part
                socioeconomic         of their
                asymmetries might     benefits
                be balanced by this
                benefit-sharing
                mechanism
 (0-350)
 Lower basin
Research outputs and
       intermediate project outcomes
• Conceptual approach:
  Adopted by MINAM …
  Is not only about paying for
  improving the delivery of
  the ESS but also about
  rewarding for ESS already
  being delivered (positive
  externalities)


                                    Recently presented by
                                 Vice-Ministry of Environment
                                         (Nov, 2012)
Linking Farmers to Markets

Under what conditions can market linkages be an effective tool
  for rural poverty reduction for gender and socially
  differentiated actors?

Iterative process of design, testing and documentation of
   approaches for inclusive business models, R4D platforms
   and public policies in Latin America, E. Africa and S.E. Asia
AMBITIOUS DESTINATIONS,
        FEW ROADS
Donors, business and civil society are in broad consensus on
benefits of linking smallholders to markets.

• Many islands of success but few cases of sustained, transformational
  change that benefit women, minorities and the rural poor.
• The concept is clear but HOW to achieve beneficial and sustained
  market access is not.
• Need to understand appropriate roles for public, private and civil society
  actors
Supply chain policies in Colombia                                         CUADRO 4
                                                           10 ORGANIZACIONES DE LAS CADENAS PRODUCTIVAS:
                                                                      ANALISIS DE FOCALIZACIÓN
                                              FOCALIZACIÓN               Aguacate             Arroz          Cacao              Caucho        Cítricos
                                              GEOGRÁFICA               Y Yha NBI Y            Yha NBI   Y    Yha NBI      Y      Yha NBI    Y  Yha NBI
                                              % Población con NBI                                                                  
                                                                                                  
                                              % Población Rural con
                                                                                                                         
                                              NBI                                                   
                                              Índice Desarrollo
                                                                                                                           
                                              Humano
                                              Índice Gini de Tierras
                                                                                                                             
                                              2009                                                                              
                                              Índice Gini de
                                                                                                                                   
                                              Propietarios 2009                                                               
                                              Núm. Intervenciones
                                              USAID (Programas                                                                            
                                                                                                                               
                                              MIDAS y ADAM)
                                              Núm. Intervenciones
                                              MADR (Oportunidades
                                                                                                                             
                                              Rurales y Alianzas
                                              Productivas)
                                              FOCALIZACIÓN                   Fique        Fruticola       Guayaba               Mango           Platano
                                              GEOGRÁFICA                Y    Yha NBI    Y Yha NBI       Y Yha NBI         Y     Yha NBI     Y    Yha NBI
                                              % Población con NBI                                                   
                                                                                                                               
                                              % Población Rural con
                                                                                                                     
                                              NBI                                                                                
                                              Índice Desarrollo
                                                                                                                                   
                                              Humano                                                                          
                                              Índice Gini de Tierras
                                                                                                                           
                                              2009                                                                             
                                              Índice Gini de
                                                                                                                           
                                              Propietarios 2009                                                                
                                              Núm. Intervenciones
                                              USAID (Programas                                                                    
                                                                                                                               
                                              MIDAS y ADAM)
                                              Núm. Intervenciones
                                              MADR (Oportunidades
                                                                                                                          
                                              Rurales y Alianzas
                                              Productivas)




  Policy density (# chains) by Department   Social performance by supply chain

                                               Quantitative macro analysis
                                                                                                                                                           I
                                        R   (policies & development outcomes)
                                                                                                                                                           n
                                        e
                                                                                                                                                           c
                                        s
                                               Qualitative meso analysis                                                                                   i
                                        e
                                            (why does the policy work /fail?)                                                                              d
                                        a
                                                                                                                                                           e
                                        r
                                                                                                                                                           n
                                        c
                                                Household level surveys                                                                                    c
                                        h
                                            (what does it mean for the poor?)                                                                              e
Policy performance by Department
Sustainable trading relationships




 Common methods

                    Training & testing the approach
                        (10 pilots in 5 countries)


                            Build data
                     (Common metrics, tools, data)


                  Engage leverage points for outcomes
                      (BiNGOs, MNCs, Donors, etc.)
Site-Specific Agriculture (SSA)
Environmental characterization of the production                       Observations made by farmers according to their
system                                                                 particular circumstances




                                                Farmers’ production
                                                    experiences




                                                       SSA
                                     Modern
                                                                        Principles of
                                  information
                                                                        operational
                                   technology
                                                                          research




                                                           Kg/Arbol   Temperatura   Edad

                              Analysis of the Observations to optimize the system
Site-specific Agriculture Based on Farmers
                  Experiences (SSAFE)
•More than 3000 experiments characterized



                                        • Bridging the yield gap
                                        • Optimizing the production system




•Providing insights on How, What and Where to grow through the SSAFE
Informatic platform (optimal zones /crops, management practices)

• More than 3500 farmers enrolled in the program
•By implementing where and how to grow, estimated return on research
investment : US 315 million /year

                             www.ciat.cgiar.org   Agricultura Eco-Eficiente para Reducir la Pobreza
Opportunities for institutionalising the special
                 relationship
 • Use of our research products
    – You need solutions, and we need adoption of our “solutions”
    – Tell us what you need to know to better direct your efforts
 • Continued and enhanced collaboration on a project basis:
    – Research backstopping
    – Joint learning approaches on development impact
 • Joint project development
    – Second round of CGIAR Research programs: big projects co-designed
      CIAT/CRS, co-funded, co-implemented
    – 20-21 June Montpellier major CGIAR partnership meeting to co-design
      US$10-20m big projects
    – From the CRS side?
 • To start with, a joint MOU CIAT-CRS
    – Focal points on both sides
    – Monitoring of progress, annual reflection on new opportunities
CIAT: Science to Cultivate Change




Website: www.ciat.cgiar.org      Follow us:   http://twitter.com/ciat_
Blog: www.ciatnews.cgiar.org/en/
                                              http://www.facebook.com/ciat.ecoefficient

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CIAT's Special Relationship with CRS

  • 1. Research into Development: CIAT and CRS’s special relationship Andy Jarvis and Andre Zandstra 9th April 2013 Since 1967 / Science to cultivate change www.ciat.cgiar.org
  • 2. The greatest food security challenge ever in human history: How to feed a growing population with scarce land and water, a fast-changing climate, and inadequate investment in agricultural research!
  • 3. CIAT: A partner in global research for a food secure future • One of the 4 Centers that started the CGIAR, (founded in 1967) and currently operates from Kenya, Vietnam, and Colombia (HQ) • Our mission is to reduce hunger and poverty, and improve human health in the tropics through research aimed at increasing the eco-efficiency of agriculture • 400 professional staff, 200 scientists working across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. Annual budget close to $100USM
  • 4. CIAT is aligned with the CGIAR research portfolio • CIAT is Lead Center of CCAFS and contributes to 11 other CGIAR Research Programs, including Genebanks • About 90% of CIAT’s research agenda is fully integrated into the CGIAR Research Portfolio • CIAT contributes to all four System Level Outcomes • The focused diversity of CIAT’s research agenda enables the Center to position itself strongly within the CGIAR research portfolio
  • 5. Improving agriculture and changing lives across the tropics Cali, Since the 1960s, with a Since the 1980s, with current focus on Central Since the 1980s, with activities now in China, America, Colombia, and activities now in 11 Vietnam, Laos, the Amazon African countries Cambodia, and Thailand
  • 6. Focus of CIAT’s research for development Natural Productivity Policy Resources Bean Soil Health & Climate Change Productivity Tropical Forages Gender Restoring Degraded Cassava Landscapes Linking Farmers to Markets Rice Carbon Genetic Resources Sequestration Impact Assessment
  • 7. Examples of Impacts • Over 5.3 million rural households in sub- Saharan Africa have adopted modern bean varieties over the last 17 years, generating benefits worth nearly US$200 million • Adoption of improved cassava varieties in Thailand and Vietnam has nearly reached 90%, creating benefits worth almost $12 billion over the last 20 years • Improved forages now cover an area estimated at 25.4 million hectares in tropical America, generating huge benefits through improved livestock production – estimated at $1 billion in Colombia, for example • Nearly 60% of Latin America’s rice area is planted to improved rice, with benefits valued at $860 million from 1967 to 1995 alone
  • 8. CIAT and CRS: A Special Relationship • Staff rotation : CIAT -> CRS! • Joint projects: • Tortillas on the Roaster • Learning Alliances • Borderlands • Green Water Initiative 2 • Coffee Under Pressure • Carbon insetting • Seed systems, soils etc. • Mutual leveraging of expertise, partners and approaches
  • 9. Leb by Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) CGIAR Research Program 1 January 2013
  • 10. Leb by Global alliance 15 CG centers and ~70 regional offices Lead center - CIAT 1 January 2013
  • 11. Liderado por Objectives Identify and develop pro-poor adaptation and mitigation practices, technologies and policies for agriculture and food systems. Support the inclusion of agricultural issues in climate change policies, and of climate issues in agricultural policies, at all levels. Commit to data availability, cross-center cooperation, and making an impact on both the global and regional level. 1 January 2013
  • 12. CCAFS Framework Adapting Agriculture to Climate Variability and Change Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for: Improved 1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Environmental Improved Change Health Rural 2. Adaptation through Managing Livelihoods Climate Risk Improved 3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation Food Security 4. Integration for Decision Making • Linking Knowledge with Action • Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis and Planning • Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural resource management, and food systems 1 January 2013
  • 13. Place-based field work Sur de Asia: Lider Regional Pramod Aggarwal Africa del Oeste Lider Regional Robert Zougmoré Africa del Este Lider Regional James Kinyangi Latinoamerica: Lider Regional Ana Maria Loboguerrero 1 January 2013
  • 14. THE VISION To adapt farming systems, we need to: • Close the production gap by effectively using Progressive current technologies, practices and Adaptation policies • Increase the bar: develop new ways to increase food production potential • Enable policies and institutions, from the farm to national level
  • 15. THE VISION • Climate-related risk impedes development, leading to chronic poverty and dependency • Actions taken now can reduce Risk vulnerability in the short term and enhance resilience Management in the long term •Improving current climate risk management will reduce obstacles to making future structural adaptations.
  • 16. VISION Pro-poor Short-term: Identifying options feasible Mitigation for smallholder mitigation and trade-offs with other outcomes Long-term: Addressing conflict between achieving food security and agricultural mitigation
  • 17. VISION •Provide an analytical and diagnostic Integration framework, grounded in the policy context • Synthesize lessons learned •Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers •Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions •Build partners’ capacity
  • 18. Agriculture and Rural Development Day: Engaging world policy leaders in the climate change dialogue •Agriculture and Rural Development Day 2011 + The analysis What Next for 2012 brought together Agriculture After Durban? was co- several hundred policy- authored by a group that includes members of the Commission on makers, farmers, scientists Sustainable Agriculture and Climate and development experts Change. It was covered by media outlets worldwide. from around the world •Recommendations to the UNFCC COP-17 conference in Durban, South Africa, Rio+20 and Qatar COP-18 •Organized by CCAFS and partners
  • 19. Analogue Tool: Finding Tomorrow’s agriculture today Methodology development Regional trainings Katmandu Dakar Nairobi http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/Analogues/ • 15 countries • 70 local researchers • WP:Climate Analogues: Finding tomorrow's agriculture today
  • 20. Farms of in Tanzania FOTF the future Journey to Yamba’s plausible futures Analogue study Tour Villages visited Starting point Lushoto Mbuzii Yamba Kinole Morogoro Mwitikilwa -Market value chain social -Weather station visit enterprise visit - Bean trial visit - Input supply Stockists Njombe - Tree nursery visit Nyombo Sepukila Village: -Matengo pits: Traditional soil and water conservation technique -Coffee nursery -Stoves Masasi Village: -Water source Mbinga -Fish pond -Biogas Mtama Village: - Bee keeping
  • 21. Leb by Climate smart villages: Key agricultural activities for managing risks 1 January 2013
  • 22. Where do we work? CCAFS sites Main crops Main livestock (forages) Maize Beans Wheat Beef cattle Goats Borana(ET) (96.6%) (86.4%) (33.1%) (93.2%) (77.8%) Maize Sorghum Beans Goats Chicken/hens Nyando (KE) (99.2%) (73.3%) (34.4%) (66.9%) (61.2%) Maize Beans Tomatoes Chicken/hens Dairy cows Usambara (TZ) (87.1%) (75%) (29%) (82.1%) (56.4%) Sweet Albertine Cassava Beans Chicken/hens potatoes Pigs (63.1%) Rift (UG) (78.6%) (68.4%) (82.5%) (59.8%)
  • 23. Leb by Lushoto (Tanzania) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 January 2013
  • 24. Lushoto (Tanzania) Weather reasons for adapting Changes in land use and crop management a) More erratic rainfall - introduction of new, higher yielding crop varieties of maize, beans b) ↘ overall rainfall (88%) and tomatoes c) ↗ amount of rainfall (39%) d) more frequent droughts (71%) - switching to disease resistant varieties of cassava, bananas and e) earlier start of the rains 77%) maize f) Later start of rains (65%) Drivers • Availability of high yielding varieties more resistant to pest and diseases • More profitable market prices. • Less productive land
  • 25. Gender Dimensions • Why consider gender? o To develop appropriate adaptation strategies for both male and female farmers (to ensure inclusion of female farmers) • Findings (Context Specific) o Gender division of labor o Decision-making o Control and Access of Resources
  • 26. Gender Division of Labor Overall, men and women tend to report that they themselves do most of the tasks Women’s Reporting Men’s Reporting Men Women Boys Girls • Examples: – Spraying was reported as a men’s task, and – Weeding mainly as a women’s task
  • 27. Decision-Making • Across all 4 sites: – Women report that men make most decisions – Men report more decisions are taken jointly – Example: Nyando, Kenya Women’s Reporting Men’s Reporting Men Women Together
  • 28. Playing out transformative climate smart adaptation in CCAFS benchmark sites in East Africa: When, where, how and with whom?
  • 29. Persons and items distribution Rash model (Campell, 1963): Attitude towards change = number + difficulty of change made
  • 30. Determinants of the degree of adaptation – Poisson regression model Variable Coefficient P-value Lnage -0.259 0.034** Help 0.281 0.019** Years of schooling 0.025 0.014** Ln total asset value 0.060 0.096* Government influence 0.364 0.002*** Less land productivity 0.164 0.060* Ability to hire farm labour 0.231 0.031** Constant 2.135 0.002*** Wald chi2(20)=104.63; p=0.000 Alpha = 0.12 N=131 Dependent variable = number of adaptation strategies undertaken
  • 31. Getting to grips with climate adaptation: The right choices
  • 32. Var. Carioca Var. Jamapa Var. Calima Evaluating varietal adaptation
  • 33. Likely yield with different planting dates
  • 34. Modelling potential losses from extreme events with different planting dates
  • 35. Benefits of potential adaptation options: conservation agriculture % yield loss % water deficit
  • 36. Tortillas on the Roaster (TOR): Cambio Climático y sistema de producción de maíz-frijol en Centroamérica. Un proyecto en colaboración con: Financiado por: The Howard G. Buffett Foundation
  • 37. Cuales son las zonas que necesitan alta atención? Áreas donde los sistemas de producción de los cultivos de fríjol pueden ser adaptados Adaptation-Spots (mas del 25% perdida de producción) Enfocarse en la adaptación de los sistemas de producción. Áreas donde estos cultivos de fríjol ya no son una opción Hot-Spots (mas del 50% perdida de producción) Enfocarse en la diversificación de medios de subsistencia. Nuevas áreas donde aumenta la producción de los cultivos. Pressure-Spots Migración de agricultura– Riesgo de deforestación!
  • 38. Results: Hot-spots for beans production areas in Central America
  • 39. Tortillas on the Roaster (TOR): Cambio Climático y sistema de producción de maíz-frijol en Centroamérica. Se dedujeron cinco estrategias de adaptación a nivel de finca! Intensificación Sostenible: Dirigido a aumentar la productividad física, preservando los recursos naturales (tierra y agua) en sistemas productivos (Eco-eficiencia) Diversificación: Aumentar la cantidad de fuentes de consumo y los ingresos procedentes de la agricultura. Expansión: Expandir las dotaciones de los diferentes tipos de capitales. Incremento de ingresos no agrícolas: incrementar las fuentes de ingresos diferentes a los que están ligados a la agricultura. Abandonar la agricultura como estrategia de vida: La familia abandona la agricultura como fuente de consumo he ingresos. Un proyecto en colaboración con: Financiado por: The Howard G. Buffett Foundation
  • 40. Rewarding for Ecosystem Services in watersheds
  • 41. Different groups want different things • Downstream o Urban dwellers want clean, reliable water supplies o Lowland farmers want cheap, reliable irrigation water o Tourists want clean, attractive water • Midstream o Hydropower companies want reliable low-silt water without having to invest in large storage reservoirs • Upstream o Highland communities want to live better o Citizens want to preserve highland ecosystem services
  • 42. Peruvian case study, Canete River watershed – Current situation Ecosystemanduse (m3/s) River flow land uses Water service provision (4000-5800 Upper basin (4000-5800 (4000-5800 Upper (Water yield (mm)) Extensive degrading0 grazing, subsistence agriculture 1111-1507 (mostly from springs) Hydropower company 51-256 Middle basin (350 – 4000 (350 – 4000 (350 – 4000 Shrimp growers 250, 64 Urban dwellers 0-50 (0-350) (0-350) Lower basin (0-350) Water inefficient commercial agriculture Tourists (rafting)
  • 43. Desired situation Investment in (4000-5800 Upper basin productive alternatives Middle basin (350 – 4000 Watershed’s Transfer part socioeconomic of their asymmetries might benefits be balanced by this benefit-sharing mechanism (0-350) Lower basin
  • 44. Research outputs and intermediate project outcomes • Conceptual approach: Adopted by MINAM … Is not only about paying for improving the delivery of the ESS but also about rewarding for ESS already being delivered (positive externalities) Recently presented by Vice-Ministry of Environment (Nov, 2012)
  • 45. Linking Farmers to Markets Under what conditions can market linkages be an effective tool for rural poverty reduction for gender and socially differentiated actors? Iterative process of design, testing and documentation of approaches for inclusive business models, R4D platforms and public policies in Latin America, E. Africa and S.E. Asia
  • 46. AMBITIOUS DESTINATIONS, FEW ROADS Donors, business and civil society are in broad consensus on benefits of linking smallholders to markets. • Many islands of success but few cases of sustained, transformational change that benefit women, minorities and the rural poor. • The concept is clear but HOW to achieve beneficial and sustained market access is not. • Need to understand appropriate roles for public, private and civil society actors
  • 47. Supply chain policies in Colombia CUADRO 4 10 ORGANIZACIONES DE LAS CADENAS PRODUCTIVAS: ANALISIS DE FOCALIZACIÓN FOCALIZACIÓN Aguacate Arroz Cacao Caucho Cítricos GEOGRÁFICA Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI % Población con NBI           % Población Rural con               NBI  Índice Desarrollo              Humano Índice Gini de Tierras          2009   Índice Gini de      Propietarios 2009     Núm. Intervenciones USAID (Programas             MIDAS y ADAM) Núm. Intervenciones MADR (Oportunidades              Rurales y Alianzas Productivas) FOCALIZACIÓN Fique Fruticola Guayaba Mango Platano GEOGRÁFICA Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI Y Yha NBI % Población con NBI         % Población Rural con                NBI  Índice Desarrollo              Humano     Índice Gini de Tierras                 2009    Índice Gini de                  Propietarios 2009    Núm. Intervenciones USAID (Programas                      MIDAS y ADAM) Núm. Intervenciones MADR (Oportunidades                      Rurales y Alianzas Productivas) Policy density (# chains) by Department Social performance by supply chain Quantitative macro analysis I R (policies & development outcomes) n e c s Qualitative meso analysis i e (why does the policy work /fail?) d a e r n c Household level surveys c h (what does it mean for the poor?) e Policy performance by Department
  • 48. Sustainable trading relationships Common methods Training & testing the approach (10 pilots in 5 countries) Build data (Common metrics, tools, data) Engage leverage points for outcomes (BiNGOs, MNCs, Donors, etc.)
  • 49. Site-Specific Agriculture (SSA) Environmental characterization of the production Observations made by farmers according to their system particular circumstances Farmers’ production experiences SSA Modern Principles of information operational technology research Kg/Arbol Temperatura Edad Analysis of the Observations to optimize the system
  • 50. Site-specific Agriculture Based on Farmers Experiences (SSAFE) •More than 3000 experiments characterized • Bridging the yield gap • Optimizing the production system •Providing insights on How, What and Where to grow through the SSAFE Informatic platform (optimal zones /crops, management practices) • More than 3500 farmers enrolled in the program •By implementing where and how to grow, estimated return on research investment : US 315 million /year www.ciat.cgiar.org Agricultura Eco-Eficiente para Reducir la Pobreza
  • 51. Opportunities for institutionalising the special relationship • Use of our research products – You need solutions, and we need adoption of our “solutions” – Tell us what you need to know to better direct your efforts • Continued and enhanced collaboration on a project basis: – Research backstopping – Joint learning approaches on development impact • Joint project development – Second round of CGIAR Research programs: big projects co-designed CIAT/CRS, co-funded, co-implemented – 20-21 June Montpellier major CGIAR partnership meeting to co-design US$10-20m big projects – From the CRS side? • To start with, a joint MOU CIAT-CRS – Focal points on both sides – Monitoring of progress, annual reflection on new opportunities
  • 52. CIAT: Science to Cultivate Change Website: www.ciat.cgiar.org Follow us: http://twitter.com/ciat_ Blog: www.ciatnews.cgiar.org/en/ http://www.facebook.com/ciat.ecoefficient

Notas del editor

  1. Managing the risk associated with climate variability is integral to a comprehensive strategy for adapting agriculture and food systems to a changing climate. Since many of the projected impacts of climate change are amplifications of the substantial challenges that climate variability already imposes on agriculture, better managing the risk associated with climate variability provides an immediate opportunity to build resilience to future climate change
  2. how to achieve climate change mitigation in ways that benefit poor farmers and examines the trade-offs that mitigation may involve, especially with the intensification of agriculture.Two windows of opportunity exist for pro-poor mitigation. The first is the design of low net emissions agricultural development pathways. 3.1: Evaluate lowest carbon footprints for: food production, adaptation, energy production, sustainable intensification, poverty alleviation + Assess impacts of current policies + Develop coherent vision to guide agric dvlptThe second is increasing the capacity of the poor (including men and women) to benefit from carbon financing, including carbon markets. Working on developing on farm technological options for mitigation and landscape implications 3.3 : Test technological feasibility of smallholder mitigation on farms developing incentives and institutional arrangements 3.2: Test feasibility of carbon market for smallholders + Assess potential non-market options + Assess impacts on marginalized groups and women
  3. 4.1: Linking Knowledge to ACTIONRegional scenarios + Vulnerability assessments + Approaches to decision making informed by good science + Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups 4.2 : Data and Tools for analysis and planning: Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts + Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development 4.3: Refining Frameworks for Policy ANALYSIS Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, and international transactions + Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies
  4. Analogue tourParticipatory videos
  5. We wanted to include a gender dimension in this study in order to ensure that any recommendations would be inclusive (in terms of gender and other social divisions). Specifically, we include women farmers (both as household heads and within male headed households) so that their needs and perspectives are taken into account; otherwise there may be an unintentional bias towards male farmers.The gender analysis focuses on three components…The findings of the gender, the socio-economic and the bio-physical analysis are often context specificExamples: Borana, Ethiopia is different than other E. Africa—traditionally pastoralNyando, Kenya—two distinct agro-ecological zones within the CCAFS siteNot only gender differences but other socio-economic and bio-physical differences
  6. nwcrpIntroduced a new cropnwvarIntroduced a new variety of cropshcyIntroduced a short cycle varietylgcyIntroduced a long cycle varietydrtlIntroduced a drought tolerant varietyfdtlIntroduced a flood tolerant varietydstlIntroduced a disease tolerant varietypsrsIntroduced a pest resistant varietyexarExpanded cropping areardarReduced cropping areastirStarted irrigationspbrStopped burningincrIntroduced intercroppingcrcvIntroduced cover cropsmcctIntroduced micro-catchmentsbundIntroduced bunds / ridgesmulcIntroduced mulchingterrIntroduced terracesstlnIntroduced stone lininghedgIntroduced hedgesctplIntroduced contour ploughingrotaIntroduced crop rotationelppIntroduced early land preparationelptIntroduced early plantingltptIntroduced late plantingmnftStarted using or increased use of mineral fertilizermncpStarted using or increased use of mineral fertilizerumphStarted using pesticides / herbicidesumipIntroduced integrated pest managementumcmIntroduced integrated crop management
  7. “Tortillas ontheRoaster” trata de predecir cambios específicos a nivel local a los que se encuentran expuestos los sistemas de producción de maíz y frijol, cambios a los que las productores pueden responder y actuar con medidas concretas de adaptación.Para alcanzar los objetivos principales se siguen un camino metodológico que comienza con la "reducción de escala" de los modelos climáticos globales a nivel local seguido de la predicción del crecimiento de las plantas de maíz y frijol y la producción bajo condiciones climáticas futuras. Se hace esto para los cuatro países en los que puede asignar todos los cambios en la producción de maíz y frijol e identificar la ubicación con diferentes grados de impacto. Con base en estos lugares podemos cuantificar las consecuencias socio-económicas para el sustento de la población respectiva y la cadena de valor. En base a estos análisis, podemos desarrollar una adaptación adecuada y también algunas estrategias de mitigación para la región.El mapa constituye el producto más importante del proyecto TOR de términos de referencia hasta el momento. La información condensada en este mapa es muy útil para un número de diferentes actores y tomadores de decisiones, las agencias de desarrollo y de la comunidad de donantes. Enrojo se encuentran los hot-spots con un mayor impacto a la producción con escenarios del clima futuro: mas que 50% disminuye el rendinimiento de rijol en estas zonas. Las naranjas son zonas que tienen una perdida del rendimiento pero un potencial para adaptación. Los puntos de presión (verde) se merecen la atención a través de las autoridades respectivas por que son zonas donde aumenta la productividad al futuro y son zonas de bosque en el presente.
  8. 1. Conceptual approach: ES-based BSM do not only seek for improving the delivery of ESS but also seek for a transfer of resources as a form of rewarding for water-related ecosystem services that are already being provided satisfactorily. (classic PES definition only accepts schemes where there is additionality in the provision of the service)
  9. Currently working with:BiNGOs (Big international NGOS) in 5 countries in development (outcome, outcome, outcome) projects worth over US$ 20m USDIn discussions with World Bank and MADR to use the approach to assess 370+ Productive Alliances in Colombia with a specific focus on the effectiveness of business linkage approaches to poverty reduction for families graduating from conditional cash transfer programs and living in post conflict situations.In discussions with Unilever for use in 3 pilots to help reach their goal of incorporating 500,000 small producers into their supply chains by 2020.In discussions with SABMiller for use in Zambia to assess local sourcing models for barley, maize, cassava with possible extension to 7 additional countries