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Demand likely to
improve in 2017
Parul Bhargava | Senior Analyst | Gurgaon
Tenant appetite for higher quality offices has been
reflected in new leases being executed at above-
market rates in select Grade A buildings. We expect
a similar trend in 2017. Due to a dearth of quality
office space in other technology-driven markets like
Pune and Bengaluru, we may see supply-led demand
in coming quarters resulting in increased absorption
volumes.
Forecast at a glance
Demand
Demand likely to remain skewed towards
Grade A buildings in preferred locations
Supply
Golf Course Extension Road likely to see
significant completions but no major new
supply in preferred micromarkets such as
Cyber City and Golf Course Road
Vacancy rate
Overall vacancy likely to remain stable;
MG Road and Cyber City may see a
further drop in vacancy due to lack of
upcoming supply in the near term
Rent
Overall rents should remain stable.
Select Grade A developments should
continue to command a premium over
the market rates.
Price
Capital values set to remain stable in the
short term as retail investment has come
to a halt after demonetisation
Soft leasing trend leads to a 30%
dip in gross absorption YOY
Gross absorption in the year 2016 was recorded at 3.87
million sq ft (359,534 sq meters). Despite an increase in
average deal size which rose from 31,300 sq ft (2,910 sq
metres) to 40,000 sq ft (3,715 sq metres), overall
absorption declined by about 30% during the year. While
the technology sector remained the key driver of office
leasing activity with a 32% share, the share reduced
significantly from the last year's number of 64%.The
share of financial services and manufacturing increased
to 20% and 11% respectively.
Absorption remained concentrated mainly on Sohna
Road, National Highway 8, Udyog Vihar due to their high
affordability. Cyber City and Golf Course Road gained
primarily due to their preferred status and accessibility
benefits.
Despite short-term tempered growth expectations in the
technology sector, growth plans were actively drawn up
by occupiers in 2016. Large IT occupier showed interest
in available Special Economic Zone (SEZ) projects as
well as upcoming corridors like the Golf Course
Extension due to a dearth of supply in other technology-
driven markets such as Pune and Bengaluru.
Rental values
Micromarkets Rental
Values*
QOQ
Changes
YOY
Change
MG Road 110 - 140 0% 0%
Golf Course Road 110 - 175 5.6% 1.8%
Institutional Sectors
(Sector 44,32,18)
60 - 90 0% 0%
Golf Course Road/
Sohna Road
60 - 80 3.7% 3.7%
National Highway 8 50 - 130 0% 0%
Udyog Vihar
& Industrial Areas
30 - 45 0% 7.1%
Manesar 38 - 45 0% 0%
DLF Cyber City (IT) 110 - 115 7.1% 13.6%
Source: Colliers International India Research
* Indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month
Colliers
GURGAON | OFFICE
16 January 2017
2 Colliers | 16 January 2017 | gurgaon | Office | Colliers International
In 2016, the institutional investors remained active in
Gurgaon and we witnessed a few investment
transactions including Burman GSC's purchase of a 51%
stake in Ascendas' Onehub project. Tata Realty bought
IT SEZ land from M3M group with a developable area of
3.0 million sq ft (278,709 sq metres) on Golf Course
Extension Road.
In a new trend, we witnessed the broadening of co-
working / shared office space portfolio in 2016. Players
such as Awfis, Regus and Smartworks expanded their
footprints on Golf Course Road in view of the upcoming
metro connectivity.
Gross Office Absorption in million sq ft
Source: Colliers International India Research
About 2.4 million sq ft (222,967 sq
meters) of new supply scheduled
for completion in 2017
In 2016, new supply came on stream mainly on Golf
Course Extension Road and Golf Course Road. Major
completions include DLF Horizon Centre 2 on Golf
Course Road adding over 1.02 million sq ft (94,761 sq
metres) of Grade A supply. Besides this, a couple of
small office towers were completed on Golf Course
Extension Road and Dwarka Expressway, together
adding about 1.6 million sq ft (148,644 sq metres) to the
total stock. Significant completions are scheduled in
2017 on Golf Course Extension Road including two more
towers in GYS Vision project and Spectrum One Towers
B&C admeasuring 1.2 million sq ft (111,483 sq meters)
area. Besides, about 1.2 million sq ft of IT SEZ supply is
also scheduled for completion in 2017 by developers
such as Ireo and Ascendas Singbridge. However, we
expect some deferment in the new supply on Golf
Course Extension as the vacancy levels are already
high.
About 9.0 million sq ft (836,127 sq meters) of office
space was available for lease in Gurgaon at end-2016
compared to 10.2 million sq ft (947,611 sq meters)
available at end-2015. Nearly 30% of this available stock
was located in the Udyog Vihar and Industrial Areas
followed by 22% on National Highway 8. Golf Course
Extension Road and Sohna Road together comprise
18% of the vacant stock while Manesar accounts for
11%.Golf Course Road, MG Road and Institutional
Sectors (Sector 44, 32 and 18) are left with limited stock
equating to 8%, 5% and 3% of vacant stock respectively.
Average rents inched up due to rise
in select Grade A buildings
Average rent for the overall market rose by around 3%
on a YOY basis in 2016. The strongest rent growth of
13% was observed in DLF Cyber City owing to dwindling
vacancy levels. Golf Course Road also registered a 2%
upsurge in rents as a new rapid metro system is set to
become operational by the end of the next quarter.
Newly completed buildings like GYS Vision and Pioneer
Urban Square Tower A & B on Golf Course Extension
attracted more attention from occupiers who were
seeking large floor plates for space efficiency and
affordable rents entailing a 3.7% increase in rents in the
micromarket on a YOY basis. Tenant appetite for higher
quality offices has been reflected in new leases being
executed at above market rates in select Grade A
buildings. We expect a similar trend in 2017.
Rental and Capital Values (INR)
Source: Colliers International India Research
Note. The above graph represents average Grade A rents per sq ft per
month and average capital values on per sq ft basis
On the infrastructure front, a detailed project report on a
metro link from Dwarka Sector 21 to IFFCO Chowk
connecting Bijwasan and Palam Vihar was approved this
year. In addition, the district planning committee
introduced the Transit Oriented Development (TOD)
Policy, which aims to bring extra FAR (Floor Area Ratio)
up to 3.5 along the metro corridor. Projects along the
Southern Peripheral Road (SPR), Northern Peripheral
Road (NPR) and Golf Course Road stand to benefit from
the TOD Policy in long run. In 2016, the Haryana
government slashed the circle rate (minimum value at
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Q42008
Q42009
Q42010
Q42011
Q42012
Q42013
Q42014
Q42015
Q42016
Q42017F
Q42018F
Q42019F
Rental Values Capital Values
3 Colliers | 16 January 2017 | gurgaon | Office | Colliers International
which commercial property can be registered) by 15%
considering the overall reduction in market values.
Colliers View
As almost 2.4 million sq ft (222,967 sq meters) of Grade
A supply is expected in the next six to eight months,
supply pressures should become more evident and push
vacancy upwards, keeping rents more or less stable in
the short term. Prime office buildings, barring a few
recent completions should command a premium over the
average rent.
We expect demand to remain healthy in the coming
quarters. Upgrading and expansion activities of
occupiers should continue to underpin demand in the
short term. Emerging players in the co-working space
will continue to expand their footprint taking up small to
mid-sized in vacant office premises in key micromarkets
like Golf Course Road, Cyber City, Udyog Vihar and
Sohna Road.
MAJOR TRANSACTIONS IN 2016
CLIENT BUILDING NAME AREA (SQ FT) LOCATION LEASE/SALE
MakeMyTrip Inc. Cyber City 150,000 Cyber City Lease
Amazon Ambience Corporate
Tower 2
150,000 NH-8 Lease
Home Credit Sewa Corporate Tower 150,000 Udyog Vihar Lease
Adidas Plot No 53, Sector 32 150,000 Sector 32 Lease
XL Catlin DLF Silokhera 150,000 Sohna Road Lease
Source: Colliers International
KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
BUILDING NAME DEVELOPER AREA (SQ FT) LOCATION POSSESSION
IREO City Phase 1 IREO 750,000 Golf Course Extension 2017
GYS Vision Tower B & C GYS 800,000 Golf Course Extension 2017
Source: Colliers International
Copyright © 2016 Colliers International.
The information contained herein has been obtained from
sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has
been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No
responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are
encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to
acting on any of the material contained in this report.
Notes:
1. Office Market: The prime business locations in Gurgaon are MG Road, Golf Course Road, Cyber City and Udyog Vihar. Manesar on the outskirts of
Gurgaon is also emerging as the city's new office destination.
2. Rents/Capital Value: Market average of indicative asking price for Grade A office space.
3. Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter.
4. All figures in the report are based on market information as on 25th December 2016.
For more information:
Surabhi Arora
Senior Associate Director
Research
Tel: +91 124 456 7500
Surabhi.arora@colliers.com
Vaibhav Mahurkar
Director
Office Services
Vaibhav.mahurkar@colliers.com
1st Floor, Techno polis
Building, Golf Course Road,
Sector 54
Gurgaon 122 002
India

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Demand likely to improve in 2017

  • 1. Demand likely to improve in 2017 Parul Bhargava | Senior Analyst | Gurgaon Tenant appetite for higher quality offices has been reflected in new leases being executed at above- market rates in select Grade A buildings. We expect a similar trend in 2017. Due to a dearth of quality office space in other technology-driven markets like Pune and Bengaluru, we may see supply-led demand in coming quarters resulting in increased absorption volumes. Forecast at a glance Demand Demand likely to remain skewed towards Grade A buildings in preferred locations Supply Golf Course Extension Road likely to see significant completions but no major new supply in preferred micromarkets such as Cyber City and Golf Course Road Vacancy rate Overall vacancy likely to remain stable; MG Road and Cyber City may see a further drop in vacancy due to lack of upcoming supply in the near term Rent Overall rents should remain stable. Select Grade A developments should continue to command a premium over the market rates. Price Capital values set to remain stable in the short term as retail investment has come to a halt after demonetisation Soft leasing trend leads to a 30% dip in gross absorption YOY Gross absorption in the year 2016 was recorded at 3.87 million sq ft (359,534 sq meters). Despite an increase in average deal size which rose from 31,300 sq ft (2,910 sq metres) to 40,000 sq ft (3,715 sq metres), overall absorption declined by about 30% during the year. While the technology sector remained the key driver of office leasing activity with a 32% share, the share reduced significantly from the last year's number of 64%.The share of financial services and manufacturing increased to 20% and 11% respectively. Absorption remained concentrated mainly on Sohna Road, National Highway 8, Udyog Vihar due to their high affordability. Cyber City and Golf Course Road gained primarily due to their preferred status and accessibility benefits. Despite short-term tempered growth expectations in the technology sector, growth plans were actively drawn up by occupiers in 2016. Large IT occupier showed interest in available Special Economic Zone (SEZ) projects as well as upcoming corridors like the Golf Course Extension due to a dearth of supply in other technology- driven markets such as Pune and Bengaluru. Rental values Micromarkets Rental Values* QOQ Changes YOY Change MG Road 110 - 140 0% 0% Golf Course Road 110 - 175 5.6% 1.8% Institutional Sectors (Sector 44,32,18) 60 - 90 0% 0% Golf Course Road/ Sohna Road 60 - 80 3.7% 3.7% National Highway 8 50 - 130 0% 0% Udyog Vihar & Industrial Areas 30 - 45 0% 7.1% Manesar 38 - 45 0% 0% DLF Cyber City (IT) 110 - 115 7.1% 13.6% Source: Colliers International India Research * Indicative Grade A rentals in INR per sq ft per month Colliers GURGAON | OFFICE 16 January 2017
  • 2. 2 Colliers | 16 January 2017 | gurgaon | Office | Colliers International In 2016, the institutional investors remained active in Gurgaon and we witnessed a few investment transactions including Burman GSC's purchase of a 51% stake in Ascendas' Onehub project. Tata Realty bought IT SEZ land from M3M group with a developable area of 3.0 million sq ft (278,709 sq metres) on Golf Course Extension Road. In a new trend, we witnessed the broadening of co- working / shared office space portfolio in 2016. Players such as Awfis, Regus and Smartworks expanded their footprints on Golf Course Road in view of the upcoming metro connectivity. Gross Office Absorption in million sq ft Source: Colliers International India Research About 2.4 million sq ft (222,967 sq meters) of new supply scheduled for completion in 2017 In 2016, new supply came on stream mainly on Golf Course Extension Road and Golf Course Road. Major completions include DLF Horizon Centre 2 on Golf Course Road adding over 1.02 million sq ft (94,761 sq metres) of Grade A supply. Besides this, a couple of small office towers were completed on Golf Course Extension Road and Dwarka Expressway, together adding about 1.6 million sq ft (148,644 sq metres) to the total stock. Significant completions are scheduled in 2017 on Golf Course Extension Road including two more towers in GYS Vision project and Spectrum One Towers B&C admeasuring 1.2 million sq ft (111,483 sq meters) area. Besides, about 1.2 million sq ft of IT SEZ supply is also scheduled for completion in 2017 by developers such as Ireo and Ascendas Singbridge. However, we expect some deferment in the new supply on Golf Course Extension as the vacancy levels are already high. About 9.0 million sq ft (836,127 sq meters) of office space was available for lease in Gurgaon at end-2016 compared to 10.2 million sq ft (947,611 sq meters) available at end-2015. Nearly 30% of this available stock was located in the Udyog Vihar and Industrial Areas followed by 22% on National Highway 8. Golf Course Extension Road and Sohna Road together comprise 18% of the vacant stock while Manesar accounts for 11%.Golf Course Road, MG Road and Institutional Sectors (Sector 44, 32 and 18) are left with limited stock equating to 8%, 5% and 3% of vacant stock respectively. Average rents inched up due to rise in select Grade A buildings Average rent for the overall market rose by around 3% on a YOY basis in 2016. The strongest rent growth of 13% was observed in DLF Cyber City owing to dwindling vacancy levels. Golf Course Road also registered a 2% upsurge in rents as a new rapid metro system is set to become operational by the end of the next quarter. Newly completed buildings like GYS Vision and Pioneer Urban Square Tower A & B on Golf Course Extension attracted more attention from occupiers who were seeking large floor plates for space efficiency and affordable rents entailing a 3.7% increase in rents in the micromarket on a YOY basis. Tenant appetite for higher quality offices has been reflected in new leases being executed at above market rates in select Grade A buildings. We expect a similar trend in 2017. Rental and Capital Values (INR) Source: Colliers International India Research Note. The above graph represents average Grade A rents per sq ft per month and average capital values on per sq ft basis On the infrastructure front, a detailed project report on a metro link from Dwarka Sector 21 to IFFCO Chowk connecting Bijwasan and Palam Vihar was approved this year. In addition, the district planning committee introduced the Transit Oriented Development (TOD) Policy, which aims to bring extra FAR (Floor Area Ratio) up to 3.5 along the metro corridor. Projects along the Southern Peripheral Road (SPR), Northern Peripheral Road (NPR) and Golf Course Road stand to benefit from the TOD Policy in long run. In 2016, the Haryana government slashed the circle rate (minimum value at 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 0 3000 6000 9000 12000 15000 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 Q42008 Q42009 Q42010 Q42011 Q42012 Q42013 Q42014 Q42015 Q42016 Q42017F Q42018F Q42019F Rental Values Capital Values
  • 3. 3 Colliers | 16 January 2017 | gurgaon | Office | Colliers International which commercial property can be registered) by 15% considering the overall reduction in market values. Colliers View As almost 2.4 million sq ft (222,967 sq meters) of Grade A supply is expected in the next six to eight months, supply pressures should become more evident and push vacancy upwards, keeping rents more or less stable in the short term. Prime office buildings, barring a few recent completions should command a premium over the average rent. We expect demand to remain healthy in the coming quarters. Upgrading and expansion activities of occupiers should continue to underpin demand in the short term. Emerging players in the co-working space will continue to expand their footprint taking up small to mid-sized in vacant office premises in key micromarkets like Golf Course Road, Cyber City, Udyog Vihar and Sohna Road. MAJOR TRANSACTIONS IN 2016 CLIENT BUILDING NAME AREA (SQ FT) LOCATION LEASE/SALE MakeMyTrip Inc. Cyber City 150,000 Cyber City Lease Amazon Ambience Corporate Tower 2 150,000 NH-8 Lease Home Credit Sewa Corporate Tower 150,000 Udyog Vihar Lease Adidas Plot No 53, Sector 32 150,000 Sector 32 Lease XL Catlin DLF Silokhera 150,000 Sohna Road Lease Source: Colliers International KEY UNDER CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS BUILDING NAME DEVELOPER AREA (SQ FT) LOCATION POSSESSION IREO City Phase 1 IREO 750,000 Golf Course Extension 2017 GYS Vision Tower B & C GYS 800,000 Golf Course Extension 2017 Source: Colliers International Copyright © 2016 Colliers International. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources deemed reliable. While every reasonable effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot guarantee it. No responsibility is assumed for any inaccuracies. Readers are encouraged to consult their professional advisors prior to acting on any of the material contained in this report. Notes: 1. Office Market: The prime business locations in Gurgaon are MG Road, Golf Course Road, Cyber City and Udyog Vihar. Manesar on the outskirts of Gurgaon is also emerging as the city's new office destination. 2. Rents/Capital Value: Market average of indicative asking price for Grade A office space. 3. Available Supply: Total Grade A office space being marketed for sale or lease in surveyed quarter. 4. All figures in the report are based on market information as on 25th December 2016. For more information: Surabhi Arora Senior Associate Director Research Tel: +91 124 456 7500 Surabhi.arora@colliers.com Vaibhav Mahurkar Director Office Services Vaibhav.mahurkar@colliers.com 1st Floor, Techno polis Building, Golf Course Road, Sector 54 Gurgaon 122 002 India