Colliers International is pleased to release the latest quarterly report: RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET OVERVIEW, INDIA - FEB 2012.
During 4Q 2011, the rental pegged up in almost all the major markets across India except Bengaluru and Chennai, this could attributed to the demand supply gap. Looking forward, demand is likely to witness moderate growth amid a weaker global economic outlook.
For feedback on this report please contact:
Surabhi Arora MRICS
Associate Director, Research
surabhi.arora@colliers.com
Sachin Sharma
Assistant Manager, Research
Sachin.sharma@colliers.com
2. 4Q 2011 | THE KNOWLEDGE
Research report
SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
research & forecast Report
India RESIDENTIAL market
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
• As per the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projections GDP growth rate was recorded at 6.9%
for 4Q 2011. The estimates by various agencies project the growth rate within a range of 7% to
8% for 2011-2012, suggesting a moderation in the growth process.
• Provisional Wholesale Price Index as reported by Ministry of Finance was 7.47% for December
2011. This quarter there was a slight decline in primary inflation due to the decrease food
inflation which stood at -3.36%.
• In 4Q 2011, RBI did not increase repo rates. It further stated that there will not likely be any
further increase to the policy rates, provided headline inflation moderates as is expected. The
repo rate is currently at 8.5%.
ECONOMIC BAROMETER
Dec-10 Dec-11 • The Department of Industrial Policy and Promotion (DIPP) recorded FDI inflow for the period
April to October, 2011 in Housing & Real Estate at INR 2,130 crores; which is a 2/3rd reduction
REPO RATE 6.25% 8.50% from the highs of the years 2008-09 and 2009-10. The Housing and Construction sector
contribution to the total FDI has also reduced to 2.31% from to 7% in the previous year.
REVERSE REPO RATE 5.25% 7.50%
• In 4Q 2011, Indian Rupee (INR) fell further by approximately 10% against the US Dollar to close
CRR 6.00% 6.00%
at INRs 54.40 to 1.00 USD on 29th December 2011. The Rupee also weakened against the Euro
INFLATION 9.47% 7.47% dropping by approximately 5% to close the quarter at INRs 70.99 to 1.00 Euro.
Home Loan Rate* 8.00% 11.00% • ualified Foreign Investor can now directly invest in the Indian Equity Market. The investment
Q
limit is to 5% and 10% for individual and QFIs respectively of their paid up capital of the company
that they establish in India.
Return on Alternative Investments ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Dec-10 Dec-11 YoY %
12.0
Change
Gold 20,496 28,041 36.81% 10.0
SILVER 45,346 51,168 12.84% 8.0
In Percentage
Fixed Deposit
6.0
(= 1 year)** 8.50% 9.25% 8.82%
EQUITY 20,389 15,836 -22.33% 4.0
REALTY INDEX 2,856 1,497 -47.57%
2.0
* SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan upto INR 50 Lakhs.
0.0
** For amount below INR 1 Crore
Jan ‘08
Feb ‘08
Mar ‘08
Apr ‘08
May ‘08
Jun ‘08
Jul ‘08
Aug ‘08
Sep‘08
Oct‘08
Nov ‘08
Dec ‘08
Jan ‘09
Feb ‘09
Mar ‘09
Apr ‘09
May ‘09
Jun ‘09
Jul ‘09
Aug ‘09
Sep‘09
Oct‘09
Nov ‘09
Dec ‘09
Jan ‘10
Feb ‘10
Mar ‘10
Apr ‘10
May ‘10
Jun ‘10
Jul ‘10
Aug ‘10
Sep‘10
Oct‘10
Nov ‘10
Dec ‘10
Jan ‘11
Feb ‘11
Mar ‘11
Apr ‘11
May ‘11
Jun ‘11
Jul ‘11
Aug ‘11
Sep‘11
Oct ‘11
Nov ‘11
Dec ‘11
(-2.0)
Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate Cash Reserve Ratio Wholesale Price Index
Source: Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
3. THE KNOWLEDGE | 4q 2011 | residential | Mumbai
mumbai 4Q 2011 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
CAPITAL VALUE
• In 4Q 2011, various projects/phases of the
projects were completed in Mumbai, including 70,000
60,000
“Kalpataru Aura” at Ghatkopar by Kalpataru 50,000
developers and “Lodha Bellissimo” by Lodha 40,000
Group at Mahalaxmi. 30,000
20,000
INR per sq ft
10,000
• This quarter, the Mumbai real estate market 0
witnessed the launch of several residential
Khar
Malabar Hill, Altamount
Road, Carmichael Road
Breach Candy, Napeansea
Road, Peddar Road
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
Worli
Prabhadevi
Bandra
Santacruz
Juhu
Andheri
Powai
projects, such as “Hill Crest” by Hubtown
Ltd., “Aria” by Parinee Developers, “Island
City Centre” by Bombay Realty, “Tripolis” by
Ekta World and “Green Acres” by Nirman
Relators. Lodha Group also launched its
mix use development project called “New
MUMBAI Cuffe Parade”, on its 23-acre land parcel in
Wadala. This land was purchased in 2010 at CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
approximately INR 4,500 crore.
CITY RESIDENTIAL BAROMETER 75,000
• The residential market remained subdued, 65,000
3Q 2011 4Q 2011 and fewer transactions were recorded during 55,000
45,000
the quarter on account of an unstable global 35,000
RENTAL VALUE economy and rising interest. Capital values 25,000
INR per sq ft
remained stable in almost all the micro
CAPITAL VALUE 15,000
markets except for a few locations such as 5,000
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
Breach Candy, Napeansea Road, Peddar Road,
Worli, Prabhadevi, Andheri and Powai where Breach Candy, Khar Colaba, Cuffe Andheri
Napeansea Road, Parade
capital value values witnessed an increase in Peddar Road Prabhadevi Bandra Worli
Santacruz Malabar Hill, Altamount Road, Carmichael
the range of 3 to 6% quarter on quarter.
Juhu
Road
• The premium residential lease market
remained active at locations such as Malabar
4Q 2011 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
COLLIERS RESIDEX 4Q 2011 - MUMBAI Hill, Altamount Road, Carmichael Road, Breach
RENTAL VALUE
Candy, Napeansea Road, Peddar Road, Khar,
150 Juhu and Powai. These locations observed an Malabar Hill, Altamount Road,
appreciation in rental values in the range of
Carmichael Road
140 Breach Candy,
Powai 200 Napeansea Rd.,
130
1 % to 3% quarter on quarter. 150
Peddar rd.
120
110 Andheri 100
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
100 • The state government has decided to provide 50
90 an additional 0.33 Floor Space Index (FSI) 0
80
in suburbs of Mumbai. The FSI would Juhu Prabhadevi
70
60
be available to the developer on paying a
50 premium. Currently, the state government Santacruz Worli
2Q2008
4Q2008
2Q2009
4Q2009
3Q2008
3Q2009
allows an FSI of 1 in the suburbs and 1.33 in
2Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2010
1Q2010
2Q2011
4Q2011
3Q2011
1Q2011
Khar Bandra
Rebase to 100 the island city. INR per Sq ft Per Month
NEW PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession Rate (Per Sq.ft.)*
Aria Juhu Vile Parle Development Parinee Developers 4Q 2014 23,000
Green Acres Malad East Nirman Relators 4Q 2016 8,500
Hill Crest Jogeshwari Vikhroli Link Road Hub Town 2Q 2014 9,500
Island City Center Dadar East Bombay Realty 4Q 2016 37,500
Tripolis Goregaon West Ekta World 4Q 2016 10,500
Note: * As quoted by developer
p. 3 | Colliers International Colliers International | p. 3
4. THE KNOWLEDGE | 4Q 2011 | residential | delhi
Delhi 4Q 2011 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
CAPITAL VALUE
• During 4Q 2011, several redevelopment
residential projects were ready for possession 100,000
90,000
in locations such as Anand Niketan, Vasant 80,000
Vihar, Westend, Defence Colony and Malcha 70,000
60,000
Marg. 50,000
40,000
30,000
INR per Sq Ft
• No new project was launched during 4Q 20,000
10,000
2011. 0
Vasant Vihar
Sunder Nagar
Anand Niketan,
Prithviraj Road,
Aurangzeb Road
Chanakya Puri
Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
Shanti Niketan,
Westend
Panchashila, Anandlok,
Niti Bagh, SDA
Friends Colony,
Maharani Bagh
Greater Kailash
I & II, South
Extension
• Capital values for premium residential
properties observed a minor appreciation in
the range of 2% to 5% quarter on quarter
across all the micro markets. This could be
attributed to the limited premium supply and
delhi scope of development.
CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
• Due to continuous demand from expatriates
CITY RESIDENTIAL BAROMETER and officials of MNC and Indian Corporate 90,000
for prime residential properties, rental values
80,000
70,000
3Q 2011 4Q 2011 recorded an increase in the range of 7 to 60,000
10% quarter on quarter across all the micro
50,000
40,000
RENTAL VALUE markets, except for a few location such as 30,000
INR per Sq Ft
20,000
Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road, where rates
CAPITAL VALUE 10,000
remained stable. 0
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
• The Delhi state cabinet has hiked the circle
Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Sunder Nagar Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
Chanakya Puri Shanti Niketan, Westend
rates for the second time this year in Delhi. Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh
The circle rate hike was highest in category Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar
‘A’ (Anand Niketan, Bhikaji Cama Place,
Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh, Nehru Place
etc.) at 250% while in B (Defence Colony,
4Q 2011 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL average
COLLIERS RESIDEX 4Q 2011 - DELHI Greater Kailash, Green Park, Hauz Khas etc.),
RENTAL VALUE
C (Civil Lines, East of Kailash, Kalkaji, Lajpat
150 Nagar etc.) and D (Anand Vihar, Dwarka,
140 Janakpuri,Karol Bagh etc.) category areas the Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
160
130
circle rates increased by 100%. Earlier this Anand Niketan,
Vasant Vihar
140
120 Chanakya Puri
120
year in February, the circle rates increased up
100
80
110
60
100 to 100% in various categories. Greater 40
Kailash I 20
90 & II, South 0 Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
Extension Sunder Nagar
80
70
60 Friends Colony, Shanti Niketan, Westend
Maharani Bagh
50
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA
Rebase to 100 INR per Sq ft Per Month
NEW PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession Rate (Per Sq.ft.)*
Kings Court Greater Kailash- II DLF 1Q 2015 36,000
Queens Court Greater Kailash- II DLF 1Q 2015 26,000
Capital Greens Shivaji Marg DLF 2Q 2015 14,000
Winter Hills Dwarka Morh Umang Realtech 4Q 2013 7,000
Note: * As quoted by developer
p. 4 | Colliers International Colliers International | p. 4