Colliers research has come up with its latest knowledge report India Residential Property Market Overview, May 2012. For more detailed information kindly download the report. You will surely find the report an interesting and informative read.
2. 1Q 2012 | THE KNOWLEDGE
Research report
SYDNEY CENTRAL BUSINESS DISTRICT
research & forecast Report
India RESIDENTIAL market
MACRO ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
• During 4Q 2011 GDP grew at 6.9 % in real terms suggesting a moderation in growth in comparison
to preceding two quarters. The finance minister presented India’s Union Budget 2012 -13 this
quarter projecting a GDP growth rate of 7.6% for 2012-13.
• The headline inflation figure moderated from 8.3% in December 2011 to 6.6 and 6.95% in
January and February 2012, respectively. Keeping in view the moderation in inflation rate the
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reduced the CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio) by 50 basis points in January
for the first time since one and a half year. A further reduction of 75 basis point was made in
March 2012. The current CRR rate is 4.75%.
ECONOMIC BAROMETER • The Budget remained silent on most of the major real estate related issues. It did however
mentioned that efforts are on to arrive at a political consensus on the issue of allowing 51%
Mar-11 Mar-12 Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in multi-brand retailing.
REPO RATE 6.50% 8.50%
• The Budget aims to provide impetus to affordable housing by providing various incentives to both
developers and end users. For example the External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) is allowed
REVERSE REPO RATE 5.50% 7.50%
for low cost housing projects which would help developers to raise debt at a lower rate.
CRR 6.00% 4.75%
• From an end user perspective, the budget provides few incentives including, Service tax
INFLATION 9.68% 6.95% exemption for construction service related to residential dwelling and low cost mass housing up
to an area of 60 sq mtr under the scheme of affordable housing. The existing scheme of interest
1
Home Loan Rate 10.25% 11.00% subvention of 1% for housing loans up to INRs 15 lakh (where the cost of the house does not
exceed INR 25 lakhs), was extended by one more year.
Return on Alternative Investments ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Mar-11 Mar-12 YoY %
12.0
Change
Gold 20,730 27,300 31.69% 10.0
SILVER 52,450 56,014 6.80%
8.0
2
Fixed Deposit 9.5% 9.25% -0.25%
6.0
EQUITY 18,167 17,675 -2.71%
REALTY INDEX 2,054 1,821 -11.31% 4.0
2.0
In Percentage
1
2
SBI Home Loan Rate for Loan upto INR 50 Lakhs.
0.0
For a period of more than one year and amount below INR 1 Crore
Jan ‘08
Apr ‘08
Jul ‘08
Oct‘08
Jan ‘09
Apr ‘09
Jul ‘09
Oct‘09
Jan ‘10
Apr ‘10
Jul ‘10
Oct‘10
Jan ‘11
Apr ‘11
Jul ‘11
Oct ‘11
Jan ‘12
(-2.0)
Repo Rate Reverse Repo Rate Cash Reserve Ratio Wholesale Price Index
Source: Colliers International India Research
www.colliers.com
3. THE KNOWLEDGE | 1q 2012 | residential | Mumbai
MUMBAI 1Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
CAPITAL VALUE
• his quarter several new residential projects
T
were launched in Mumbai including a 70,000
60,000
few premium residential projects such as 50,000
“Imperia” by Raheja Universal, and “ITC Glory” 40,000
and “Aquino” by Rohan Lifescapes. All of 30,000
these new launches were located in western 20,000
INR per sq ft
10,000
suburbs and were priced in the range of INR 0
22,000 to 32,500 per sq ft.
Khar
Malabar Hill, Altamount
Road, Carmichael Road
Breach Candy, Napeansea
Road, Peddar Road
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
Worli
Prabhadevi
Bandra
Santacruz
Juhu
Andheri
Powai
• Construction activities remained slow and no
new supply was added to the prime residential
stock in Mumbai.
• Buyer’s sentiments remained cautious on the
MUMBAI backdrop of the current economic scenario
and fewer transactions were recorded during CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
the quarter.
CITY RESIDENTIAL BAROMETER 75,000
• apital values for prime residential properties
C 65,000
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 in western suburbs such as Bandra,
55,000
45,000
Santacruz, Andheri, Khar and Juhu recorded 35,000
RENTAL VALUE an increase in the range of 3 to 9%. On the 25,000
INR per sq ft
contrary, properties located in South Central 15,000
CAPITAL VALUE
locations observed downward pressure on 5,000
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
capital values and saw a marginal correction
quarter-on-quarter. Breach Candy, Khar Colaba, Andheri
Napeansea Road, Cuffe Parade
Peddar Road Prabhadevi Bandra Worli
Powai Malabar Hill, Santacruz
• Due to steady demand for high-end rental
Juhu
Altamount Road, Carmichael Road
premises, rental values for prime residential
properties witnessed marginal increase in the
range of 1 to 2% quarter-on-quarter in most
1Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
COLLIERS RESIDEX 1Q 2012 - MUMBAI of the micro-markets barring locations such
RENTAL VALUE
as Worli, Andheri, Juhu and Powai where
140 rental values remained stable on account of Malabar Hill, Altamount Road,
ample supply.
Carmichael Road
130 Breach Candy,
Powai 200 Napeansea Rd.,
120 Peddar rd.
150
110
Andheri 100
Colaba, Cuffe Parade
100
50
90
0
80
Juhu Prabhadevi
70
60
Santacruz Worli
50
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
Khar Bandra
Rebase to 100 INR per Sq ft Per Month
NEW PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession Rate (Per Sq.ft.)*
Aquino Prabhadevi Rohan Lifescapes 4Q 2015 32,500
Imperia Lower Parel Raheja Universal 4Q 2016 23,000
ITC Glory Parel Rohan Lifescapes 4Q 2014 22,000
Kanakia Skywalk Malad East Kanakia Group 4Q 2016 9,500
Note: * As quoted by developer
p. 3 | Colliers International Colliers International | p. 3
4. THE KNOWLEDGE | 1Q 2012 | residential | delhi
Delhi 1Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
CAPITAL VALUE
• he new residential supply in the premium
T
segment remains restricted, as only a few 100,000
90,000
redevelopment projects were completed this 80,000
quarter. Similarly no new residential projects 70,000
60,000
were launched this quarter, except for a few 50,000
40,000
redevelopment projects undertaken by local 30,000
INR per Sq Ft
developers. 20,000
10,000
0
• apital value of prime residential properties
C
Vasant Vihar
Sunder Nagar
Anand Niketan,
Prithviraj Road,
Aurangzeb Road
Chanakya Puri
Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
Shanti Niketan,
Westend
Panchashila, Anandlok,
Niti Bagh, SDA
Friends Colony,
Maharani Bagh
Greater Kailash
I & II, South
Extension
appreciated in the range of 5 to 10% across
all the micro markets in 1Q 2012. However,
buyers’ sentiments remained cautions due to
prevailing uncertainties in economy.
delhi • Demand for premium residential properties
remained consistent in South Delhi’s much CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
sought after locations such as Prithviraj
CITY RESIDENTIAL BAROMETER Road, Aurangzeb Road, Chanakya Puri, Golf 90,000
Links, Jor Bagh and Sunder Nagar, however,
80,000
70,000
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 in Shanti Niketan, Westend, Panchashila, 60,000
Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA, Friends Colony,
50,000
40,000
RENTAL VALUE Maharani Bagh, Greater Kailash I & II, South 30,000
INR per Sq Ft
20,000
Extension, Anand Niketan and Vasant Vihar
CAPITAL VALUE 10,000
rents appreciated in the range of 2 to 9%. 0
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
• n order to facilitate smooth travel between
I
Golf Links, Jor Bagh, Sunder Nagar Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
Chanakya Puri Shanti Niketan, Westend
the two cities, Delhi and Gurgaon, the Delhi Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA Friends Colony, Maharani Bagh
Development Authority (DDA) has planned to Greater Kailash I & II, South Extension Anand Niketan, Vasant Vihar
develop three Urban Extension Roads (UERs)
connecting Dwarka to Palam Vihar, Najafgarh
to Dhansa and Nelson Mandela Road to MG
1Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL average
COLLIERS RESIDEX 1Q 2012 - DELHI Road.
RENTAL VALUE
140
• he Delhi government has given its in-
T
130 principle approval for developing a monorail Prithviraj Road, Aurangzeb Road
200
120 corridor of 10.8 kms in Trans-Yamuna area. Anand Niketan,
Vasant Vihar
160
Chanakya Puri
110
This monorail line is expected to link between 120
80
100
Shastri Park metro station and Trilokpuri via Greater 40
90
Laxmi Nagar in East Delhi and will have 12
Kailash I
& II, South 0 Golf Links, Jor Bagh,
80 Extension Sunder Nagar
70
stations. It is proposed to be functional by end
60
of 2017.
Friends Colony, Shanti Niketan, Westend
Maharani Bagh
50
1Q2008
2Q2008
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
Panchashila, Anandlok, Niti Bagh, SDA
Rebase to 100 INR per Sq ft Per Month
Ongoing Projects
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession Rate (Per Sq.ft.)*
Kings Court Greater Kailash- II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 36,000
Queens Court Greater Kailash- II DLF Ltd. 1Q 2015 26,000
Capital Greens Shivaji Marg DLF Ltd. 2Q 2015 14,000
Winter Hills Dwarka Morh Umang Realtech 4Q 2013 7,000
Note: * As quoted by developer
p. 4 | Colliers International
5. THE KNOWLEDGE | 1q 2011 | residential | gurgaon
gurgaon 1Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
CAPITAL VALUE
• arious projects / phases of projects were
V
offered for possession during this quarter 15,000
including “DLF Belaire”, “DLF Park Place” 12,000
and “DLF Mangnolias” at Golf Course Road 9,000
developed by DLF Ltd and “Tatvam Villa”
6,000
developed by Vipul Ltd located at Sohna
INR per sq ft
Road.
3,000
0
Golf Course Road
Sohna Road & Ext
DLF Phase I
Sushant Lok
NH - 8
• n 1Q 2012, the projects launched included,
I
“Gurgaon Greens” by Emaar MGF, “Amstoria”
by BPTP, “Centrum Park” by India Bulls Ltd,
“Colour Coding” by 3C Universal, “Provence
Estate” by Krrish Group and Imperia Esfera
by Imperia Group. All of these projects were
gurgaon located in the sectors adjoining the Dwarka
Expressway and were launched in a price CAPITAL VALUE TRENDS
range of INR 4,000-5,000 per sq ft.
CITY RESIDENTIAL BAROMETER 18,000
• s compared to the previous quarter, capital
A 16,000
14,000
4Q 2011 1Q 2012 values for prime residential properties 12,000
recorded an marginal increase in the range of 10,000
8,000
RENTAL VALUE 2 to 4% across all micro markets, barring a 6,000
few locations such as DLF Phase-1 and NH-8,
INR per sq ft
4,000
CAPITAL VALUE 2,000
where capital values remained stable quarter- 0
3Q2008
4Q2008
1Q2009
2Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
on-quarter on the account of muted demand.
NH-8 Sohna Road & Ext
• ental values for prime residential properties
R Golf Course Road Sushant Lok
increased in the range of 2 to 9% quarter- DLF Phase I
on-quarter in locations such as DLF Phase 1,
Golf Course Road, Sohna Road & Extension
and Sushant Lok due to increasing demand
1Q 2012 PREMIUM RESIDENTIAL AVerage
COLLIERS RESIDEX 1Q 2012 - GURGAON from multinational corporations as well as
RENTAL VALUE
domestic companies.
150
• n a bid to improve infrastructure in the
I
Golf Course Road
140
80
130
newly-developing sectors on the Golf Course 60
120
110
Extension Road and Dwarka Expressway, the 40
100 State Government has allocated INR 1,394 NH-8
20
Sohna Road & Ext
90 crore for various infrastructure projects such
0
80
as strengthening roads and developing water
70
60
supply and sewage systems.
50
4Q2008
1Q2009
3Q2009
4Q2009
1Q2010
2Q2010
3Q2010
4Q2010
1Q2011
2Q2011
3Q2011
4Q2011
1Q2012
2Q2009
DLF Phase I
Sushant Lok
Rebase to 100 INR per Sq ft Per Month
NEW PROJECTS
Project Name Location Developer Name Tentative Possession Rate (Per Sq.ft.)*
Amstoria Sector 102 BPTP Ltd. 4Q 2015 11,000
India Bulls Real Estate
Centrum Park Sector 110 4Q 2013 4,500
Ltd.
Colour Coding Sector 89 3C Universal 4Q 2016 4,000
Gurgaon Greens Sector 102 Emaar MGF 4Q 2016 5,000
Imperia Esfera Sector 37 C Imperia Group 1Q 2015 3,500
Provence Estate Gurgaon-Faridabad Road Krrish Group 4Q 2015 6,750
Note: * As quoted by developer
Colliers International | p. 5