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CompTIA Market Intelligence | January 29, 2013




IT Industry Outlook 2013
IT Industry Business Confidence Unchanged
Heading Into 2013; Outlook Slightly More Promising
 CompTIA’s IT Industry Business Confidence Index is calculated on a 100-point scale, using an aggregation of three
 metrics: 1). Opinions of the U.S. economy, 2). Opinions of the IT industry, and 3). Opinions of one’s company.
            64.0
            62.0
            60.0
            58.0
            56.0
            54.0
            52.0
            50.0
            48.0
            46.0
            44.0


                                                                                                                *6-month forecast

                                                       Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
U.S. Economy Component of Index
      Continues to Negatively Affect Sentiment
CompTIA’s IT Industry Business Confidence Index is calculated on a 100-point scale, using an aggregation of three
metrics: 1). Opinions of the U.S. economy, 2). Opinions of the IT industry, and 3). Opinions of one’s company.
           72.0
                              U.S. Economy               IT Industry                Your Firm
           68.0

           64.0

           60.0

           56.0

           52.0

           48.0

           44.0

           40.0

           36.0


                                                                                                               *6-month forecast

                                                      Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
Gap in Sentiment Between Micro-Size and
           Larger IT Firms Persists
   Micro = Less than 10 employees    Medium = 100 to 499 employees           Data depicts overall IT Industry
   Small = 10 to 99 employees        Large = 500+ employees                  Business Confidence


                                    59.8
          57.3         57.6                                 57.9                                                    57.9
                                                                               56.0              55.9
53.0




Micro    Small Medium Large                            HW or SW IT or Biz SPs, VARs                               Other
firms    firms  firms firms                             Vendors Consulting or MSPs

                                                   Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
Even Under Pessimistic Scenario, Many
                     Expect Positive IT Industry Growth
                                   U.S. IT Industry Revenue Forecast: Distribution of Opinions
                                                         Midpoint =
                   -12% growth                           0% growth                                    +12% growth




Optimistic scenario:
90% NET positive growth forecast
4% Flat growth forecast
6% NET negative growth forecast

Pessimistic scenario:
53% NET positive growth forecast
16% Flat growth forecast
31% NET negative growth forecast
                                                                                                                 Shaded area =
                                                                                                                 Optimistic
                                                                                                                 scenario



   Line = Pessimistic
   scenario


                                                            Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
IT Firms Balance Cost Cutting, Staffing & Innovation
Expected change in spending/investment over next 6 months

                                              Planned                     No                              Planned
                                              Decrease                  Change                            Increase
Investments in new products or business lines      7%                    51%                                  43%

          Staffing levels in technical positions   12%                      48%                                40%

                     Technology expenditures       10%                      52%                                 38%

                                   Cost cutting    7%                      57%                                   36%

   Staff training or professional development       14%                         55%                                31%

         Marketing/advertising expenditures         14%                         56%                                31%

     Staffing levels in non-technical positions     13%                           61%                                26%

                                Business travel          27%                             52%                           21%

   Capital expenditures (e.g. non technology)           20%                            61%                             19%



                                                   Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
CompTIA Consensus IT Industry Growth Forecasts
                    Global IT Industry Revenue Forecast                                    U.S. IT Industry Revenue Forecast
                    2013 Optimistic projection:    5.2%                                    2013 Optimistic projection:    4.9%
                    2013 Pessimistic projection:   0.7%                                    2013 Pessimistic projection:   0.6%
                    2013 Midpoint projection:      3.0%                                    2013 Midpoint projection:      2.9%

                    8.0                                                                    8.0
                    7.0                                                                    7.0
Growth Rate Range




                                                                       Growth Rate Range
                    6.0                                                                    6.0
                    5.0                                                                    5.0
                    4.0                                                                    4.0
                    3.0                                                                    3.0
                    2.0                                                                    2.0
                    1.0                                                                    1.0
                    0.0                                                                    0.0
                           2010     2011     2012     2013                                        2010     2011     2012     2013


                                                             Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
Some Threats Subside, but Fear of a Stalled Recovery and
 Weak Spending Continue to Worry Industry Executives
                                    Stalled recovery                                                          48%
                                                                                                                    52%

              General lack of confidence/paralysis                                                37%
                                                                                                        43%

                          Weak corporate demand                                             33%
                                                                                           32%

                          Weak consumer demand                                             32%
                                                                                             34%

 Unexpected shock (e.g. fiscal cliff, oil price spike)                                   31%
                                                                                  25%

                            Government regulation                                       30%
                                                                                  25%

      IT industry squeezed by decreasing margins                                        29%
                                                                                           32%

                                Lengthy sales cycles                             24%
                                                          0
                                                          NA
                             Domestic competition                          20%
                                                                         18%                                   2013
                  Labor prices/availability of talent                      19%
                                                                                 23%

                             Stock market volatility                     18%
                                                                                  25%
                                                                                                               2012
                  Competition from overseas firms                        17%
                                                                       15%

                            Access to credit/capital                    17%
                                                                                  25%

      Disruptive technologies or business models                 11%
                                                                        17%

                               Weak export market            7%
                                                               9%

                                                  Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
Majority of Channel Expects to Undergo at Least a
Moderate Degree of Business Transformation in 2013
  Degree of Business Transformation                       Degree of Business
       Expected During 2013                           Transformation Correlated
                                                          with Company Size

                                                    NET high + moderate business transformation

                                                    73%             Large IT firms
                52%                                 73%             Medium-size IT firms
                          36%
                                                    63%             Small IT firms
      12%
                                                    50%             Micro-size IT firms

     High    Moderate     Low
    Degree    Degree     Degree

                                      Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
IT Industry Employment vs. IT Occupation Employment




                             IT                     IT
                          Industry              Occupation
                        Employment             Employment


An estimated 5.0 million workers                      An estimated 4.16 million workers
were employed in the U.S.           Within the IT     were employed in core IT
information technology industry                       occupations, across the full
in 2012. This includes technical
                                   industry, there    spectrum of U.S. industry sectors
and non-technical positions.         are many IT      and the government sector. This
                                    occupations.      figure includes non-
                                                      employers, such as the self-
                                                      employed.
About this Research
CompTIA’s IT Industry Outlook 2013 provides an overview of the size, shape and growth factors of the information
technology (IT) industry.

The study consists of three sections, which can be viewed independently or together as chapters of a
comprehensive report. The enclosed slides are a sampling of the content found in the report.

Section 1: IT Industry Market and Workforce Overview
Section 2: 2013 IT Industry Forecasts
Section 3: 2013 IT Industry Trends

This quantitative study consisted of an online survey fielded to IT industry executives and professionals during late
December 2012. It was conducted as part of CompTIA’s quarterly IT Industry Business Confidence Index. A total of
518 IT industry companies participated in the survey, yielding an overall margin of sampling error at 95% confidence
of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Sampling error is larger for subgroups of the data.

As with any survey, sampling error is only one source of possible error. While non-sampling error cannot be
accurately calculated, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the survey design, collection and processing of
the data to minimize its influence.

CompTIA is responsible for all content contained in this series. Any questions regarding the study should be directed
to CompTIA Market Intelligence staff at research@comptia.org.

CompTIA is a member of the Marketing Research Association (MRA) and adheres to the MRA’s Code of Market
Research Ethics and Standards.
Want to know more?

As the voice of the IT industry, CompTIA has
hundreds of tools, market intelligence reports and




                                                     comptia.org
business training programs to help IT channel
organizations grow through
education, certification, advocacy and
philanthropy.

Check it out at www.comptia.org.

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CompTIA IT Industry Outlook 2013

  • 1. CompTIA Market Intelligence | January 29, 2013 IT Industry Outlook 2013
  • 2. IT Industry Business Confidence Unchanged Heading Into 2013; Outlook Slightly More Promising CompTIA’s IT Industry Business Confidence Index is calculated on a 100-point scale, using an aggregation of three metrics: 1). Opinions of the U.S. economy, 2). Opinions of the IT industry, and 3). Opinions of one’s company. 64.0 62.0 60.0 58.0 56.0 54.0 52.0 50.0 48.0 46.0 44.0 *6-month forecast Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 3. U.S. Economy Component of Index Continues to Negatively Affect Sentiment CompTIA’s IT Industry Business Confidence Index is calculated on a 100-point scale, using an aggregation of three metrics: 1). Opinions of the U.S. economy, 2). Opinions of the IT industry, and 3). Opinions of one’s company. 72.0 U.S. Economy IT Industry Your Firm 68.0 64.0 60.0 56.0 52.0 48.0 44.0 40.0 36.0 *6-month forecast Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 4. Gap in Sentiment Between Micro-Size and Larger IT Firms Persists Micro = Less than 10 employees Medium = 100 to 499 employees Data depicts overall IT Industry Small = 10 to 99 employees Large = 500+ employees Business Confidence 59.8 57.3 57.6 57.9 57.9 56.0 55.9 53.0 Micro Small Medium Large HW or SW IT or Biz SPs, VARs Other firms firms firms firms Vendors Consulting or MSPs Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 5. Even Under Pessimistic Scenario, Many Expect Positive IT Industry Growth U.S. IT Industry Revenue Forecast: Distribution of Opinions Midpoint = -12% growth 0% growth +12% growth Optimistic scenario: 90% NET positive growth forecast 4% Flat growth forecast 6% NET negative growth forecast Pessimistic scenario: 53% NET positive growth forecast 16% Flat growth forecast 31% NET negative growth forecast Shaded area = Optimistic scenario Line = Pessimistic scenario Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 6. IT Firms Balance Cost Cutting, Staffing & Innovation Expected change in spending/investment over next 6 months Planned No Planned Decrease Change Increase Investments in new products or business lines 7% 51% 43% Staffing levels in technical positions 12% 48% 40% Technology expenditures 10% 52% 38% Cost cutting 7% 57% 36% Staff training or professional development 14% 55% 31% Marketing/advertising expenditures 14% 56% 31% Staffing levels in non-technical positions 13% 61% 26% Business travel 27% 52% 21% Capital expenditures (e.g. non technology) 20% 61% 19% Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 7. CompTIA Consensus IT Industry Growth Forecasts Global IT Industry Revenue Forecast U.S. IT Industry Revenue Forecast 2013 Optimistic projection: 5.2% 2013 Optimistic projection: 4.9% 2013 Pessimistic projection: 0.7% 2013 Pessimistic projection: 0.6% 2013 Midpoint projection: 3.0% 2013 Midpoint projection: 2.9% 8.0 8.0 7.0 7.0 Growth Rate Range Growth Rate Range 6.0 6.0 5.0 5.0 4.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 8. Some Threats Subside, but Fear of a Stalled Recovery and Weak Spending Continue to Worry Industry Executives Stalled recovery 48% 52% General lack of confidence/paralysis 37% 43% Weak corporate demand 33% 32% Weak consumer demand 32% 34% Unexpected shock (e.g. fiscal cliff, oil price spike) 31% 25% Government regulation 30% 25% IT industry squeezed by decreasing margins 29% 32% Lengthy sales cycles 24% 0 NA Domestic competition 20% 18% 2013 Labor prices/availability of talent 19% 23% Stock market volatility 18% 25% 2012 Competition from overseas firms 17% 15% Access to credit/capital 17% 25% Disruptive technologies or business models 11% 17% Weak export market 7% 9% Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 9. Majority of Channel Expects to Undergo at Least a Moderate Degree of Business Transformation in 2013 Degree of Business Transformation Degree of Business Expected During 2013 Transformation Correlated with Company Size NET high + moderate business transformation 73% Large IT firms 52% 73% Medium-size IT firms 36% 63% Small IT firms 12% 50% Micro-size IT firms High Moderate Low Degree Degree Degree Source: CompTIA 2013 Outlook Study | Base: 518 executives at U.S. IT firms
  • 10. IT Industry Employment vs. IT Occupation Employment IT IT Industry Occupation Employment Employment An estimated 5.0 million workers An estimated 4.16 million workers were employed in the U.S. Within the IT were employed in core IT information technology industry occupations, across the full in 2012. This includes technical industry, there spectrum of U.S. industry sectors and non-technical positions. are many IT and the government sector. This occupations. figure includes non- employers, such as the self- employed.
  • 11. About this Research CompTIA’s IT Industry Outlook 2013 provides an overview of the size, shape and growth factors of the information technology (IT) industry. The study consists of three sections, which can be viewed independently or together as chapters of a comprehensive report. The enclosed slides are a sampling of the content found in the report. Section 1: IT Industry Market and Workforce Overview Section 2: 2013 IT Industry Forecasts Section 3: 2013 IT Industry Trends This quantitative study consisted of an online survey fielded to IT industry executives and professionals during late December 2012. It was conducted as part of CompTIA’s quarterly IT Industry Business Confidence Index. A total of 518 IT industry companies participated in the survey, yielding an overall margin of sampling error at 95% confidence of +/- 4.4 percentage points. Sampling error is larger for subgroups of the data. As with any survey, sampling error is only one source of possible error. While non-sampling error cannot be accurately calculated, precautionary steps were taken in all phases of the survey design, collection and processing of the data to minimize its influence. CompTIA is responsible for all content contained in this series. Any questions regarding the study should be directed to CompTIA Market Intelligence staff at research@comptia.org. CompTIA is a member of the Marketing Research Association (MRA) and adheres to the MRA’s Code of Market Research Ethics and Standards.
  • 12. Want to know more? As the voice of the IT industry, CompTIA has hundreds of tools, market intelligence reports and comptia.org business training programs to help IT channel organizations grow through education, certification, advocacy and philanthropy. Check it out at www.comptia.org.

Notas del editor

  1. Q13
  2. Q7