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Social policy response to financial crisis
             in small states




                         Naren Prasad
         International Institute for Labour Studies, ILO
                          London 7 July 2009
Commonwealth Meeting: Sustainable development in small states in a turbulent
Social Policy
• Social policy “is state intervention that
  directly affects social welfare, social
  institutions and social relations. It involves
  overarching concerns with redistribution,
  production, reproduction and
  protection and works in tandem with
  economic policy in pursuit of national
  social and economic goals”
            » UNRISD. 2006. Transformative social policy:
              lessons from UNRISD Research, (p. 1)
• 16 lessons!
A UN Report of 1957

• Social policy should not be treated “as a
  housemaid whose function is to tidy up human
  suffering and insecurity left in the wake of
  economic development”.
• Social objectives should be built in on an equal
  footing with economic objectives into
  comprehensive social and economic planning”
     • Report on a Co-ordinated Policy regarding Family Levels of
       Living, United Nations, 1957, Sales no. 57.IV.7 (p. 18). ).
Recovering from the crisis:
         A Global Jobs Pact
•   Accelerating employment creation, jobs
    recovery & sustaining enterprises
•   Building social protection systems & protecting
    people
•   Strengthening respect for international labour
    standards
•   Social dialogue: Bargaining collectively,
    identifying priorities, stimulating action
…the way forward:
Shaping a fair and sustainable globalization
GJP: Generating growth
• Stimulus packages
  • Boosting demand
  • Wage maintenance
• Supporting enterprises
• Green investments
• Effective & efficient regulation to
  promote employment generation
GJP: Protecting employment
  • Employment-oriented stimuli
     • Public works & job guarantees, training & skills development,
       and employment services
  • Supporting enterprises to retain workforce
  • Supporting job creation in enterprises, especially
    smaller businesses
  • Protecting labour standards & strengthening labour
    inspection
     • freedom of association, the right to organize & collective bargaining
     • prevention of forced labour, child labour & discrimination at work

… aiming for full and productive employment
Mauritius: Saving jobs
– Riding our the global crisis: saving bobs-
  protecting people-preparing fro recovery
– Stimulus package
   • saving jobs
      – 2,700 jobs saved through the Mechanism for Transitional
        Support, by helping enterprises that are at the breakdown point,
        3000 indirectly
   • Public infrastructure
   • Manufacturing Adjustment and SME Development Fund (500
     million rup, 0.2% of GDP)
   • Save jobs 4 billion rup (1.7% GDP)
      – 14.7 billion to stimulate economy (6.1% GDP)
      – 27.4 bn rup for infrastructure & transportation development
        (12% of GDP)
          » 126.3 bn rup over 10 yrs PPP
Mauritius: GDP growth



+6.0

+5.0

+4.0

+3.0
                                        GDP
+2.0                                    textile
                                        tourism
+1.0

+0.0
       2006       2007    2008   2009
-1.0

-2.0
GJP: Guaranteeing social
                protection/security
• Introducing cash transfer schemes for the poor
• Guaranteeing basic social protection for all
   •   access to health care
   •   income security for the elderly & persons with disabilities
   •   child benefits
   •   income security combined with public employment guarantee
       schemes
• Extending the duration & coverage of unemployment
  benefits
• Protecting temporary & non-regular workers
• Avoiding deflationary wage spirals
Why social security?
• Social security
  – Human rights (article 22 of UDHR)
        – “Everyone.. has the right to social security.. through national
          effort and international co-operation …”.
  – plays a crucial role in protecting people from risks
    such as income loss, sickness or old age
  – Old age, work injury, sickness & maternity,
    unemployment benefit, family assistance, other cash
    transfers
  – it can boost demand, create consumer confidence
    and create employment in crisis times
Guaranteeing social protection

Type of social protection       Social protection instrument    Role in Crisis


Protective                      Social transfers                Immediate protection and relief
(social assistance)             Disability benefits                from       poverty     and
                                Pension schemes                    deprivation
                                Social services
Preventive                      Social transfers                Prevents damage     to   coping
(insurance)                     Social insurance                    strategies
                                Livelihood diversification
                                Saving clubs
Promotive                       Social transfers                Promotes resilience through
(Economic opportunities)        Access to credit                   livelihood   diversification
                                School feeding                     and improves security
                                Public works program

Transformative                  Promotion of minority rights    Transforms social relations to
(addressing underlying social   Anti-discrimination campaigns       reduce exclusion
    vulnerabilities             Social funds
Social security: Current status
• 20% of population covered by social
  security globally
• Developed countries
  – Generous welfare system
    • Social democratic: Nordics
    • Conservative: Europeans
    • Liberal: Anglo-saxons
• Developing countries
    • Underdeveloped, informal employment
Old age social security
• Pensions have a strong redistributive effect, and in reducing
  poverty
    – But in developing countries, pensions only to formal sector


                Distribution of public social spending by quintlies
                     (average for 9 Latin American countries)

           70
           60
           50
                                                              Education
           40
                                                              Health
       %




           30
                                                              Social Security
           20
           10
           0
                   I       II       III      IV       V
Pension coverage
    100

    90
    80
    70
    60
%




    50
    40
    30
    20
    10
     0
                              Bolivia


                                                  Indonesia


                                                                      Thailand




                                                                                                                                                         OECD (30)
                                                                                                        Sri Lanka
                                                                                                                    Argentina




                                                                                                                                                                                                                               Japan
           Pakistan




                                                                                                                                                                                                              Australia
                      India




                                                                                 Philippines




                                                                                                                                                                                        Canada
                                                                                               Mexico




                                                                                                                                                                               France
                                        Vietnam




                                                                                                                                                                     Germany
                                                                                                                                                 Korea
                                                              China




                                                                                                                                                                                                 Italy
                                                                                                                                Brazil




                                                                                                                                                                                                         US


                                                                                                                                                                                                                          UK
          – In Asia only 20% of the population have access to health care,                                                               Chile
            30% of the elderly receive pensions, 20% of those unemployed
            receive some kind of unemployment benefit such as training,
            public works (UNESCAP 2009).
          – Latin America, less than 30% of the labour force are covered by
            any pension (Rofman & Lucchetti 2006).
Pension in small states
         12



                                                       MUS          SYC

                               WSM



                                                                          CYP       MLT
               10




                                BLZ
Pensio n index




                              BHS                             BRB

                                                TT O
    8




                                              KNA
                                        LCA  VCT        DMA
                                          GRD
                                      GUY
                              JAM
         6




                        PNG




                     FJI
         4




                    SLBVUT     KIR


                    0                              5                        10            15
                                                Social welfare spen ding (% GD P)
% GDP
                  0                              10               20                    30              40


                                                                       19. 9678


                                                                        20.3219


                      . 831954
                                                                                                             Africa



                                   4.3324




Revenue
                           2.46081




                                                                             21. 5771


                                                                             21. 6607




Expenses
                                 3. 85301


                                    4. 97327


                                 3.55251
                                                                                                             Latin America




                                                                  17.9332


                                                                   18.5321




Social security
                      1.09747
                                                                                                             Asia




                                      5. 45578


                                 3.55732




                                                                                             32. 8386
Education




                                                                                             33.2248


                                                       12. 4736


                                      5.5799


                                            6. 37722
                                                                                                             High income




Health
                                                                                                                             Current levels of revenue & spending
Revenue, expenses % social security in small states
    50
    4030
   % GDP
20  10
    0



             BRB




                            CY P




                                                        DV




                                                                   MUS
                                         JA M
                   CPV




                                                 KNA




                                                             MLT




                                                                             PNG
                                   FJI




                                                                                            TO
                                                                                    SYC
                                                       M




                                                                                           T
                         revenue                expenses                 social security
Developing/small countries social security

• Social security (& labour standards)
  – Too expensive - unaffordable
  – First we need development
• Universal pension
  – Mauritius (1958), Namibia (1990), Samoa (1990),
    Bolivia (1996), Botswana (1996) and the City of
    Mexico (2001)
• Near-universal pension
  – South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cost Rica and
    Uruguay
Social security: Its possible…
– Suppose a country provides…
   • Universal pension
      – 30 % GDP per capita to all 65+
   • Basic health
      – 300 medical staff to 10,000 people
   • Child benefit
      – 15% GDP per capita to all children 0-14
   • Social assistance/employment scheme
      – 30% of GDP per capita to the poor,
      – 10% of working age population for 100 days per year
– What will it cost…..?
Basic social security (% GDP)

         6

         5
                                               Its possible for small states
         4

         3
%




         2

         1

         0




                                                                                       dia



                                                                                                  l
                                          ea



                                                    a



                                                                 l
                                  pia
                         on




                                                               ia




                                                                                                pa




                                                                                                                       am
                                                                               sh




                                                                                                               n
                                                              ga
            so




                                                 ny




                                                                                                            ta
                                                             an
                                          in




                                                                                     In
                       ro




                                                                                             Ne
                                                                             de
          Fa




                                                           ne
                                h io




                                                                                                                   etn
                                               Ke




                                                                                                        kis
                                        Gu




                                                          nz
                    me




                                                                          la
                                                         Se
                              Et




                                                                                                      Pa
         ina




                                                                                                                   Vi
                                                        Ta


                                                                        ng
                 Ca
      rk




                                                                      Ba
    Bu




                                                  pension   health   child    assistance
GJP: Recovering with
employer-employee dialogue
• To reduce social tensions
• To inspire confidence in the results
  achieved
• To promote decent work solutions
What social policy works
• Evidence shows…
  – Minimum old age pensions and cash transfers to
    families seem to have the biggest poverty impact with
    the lowest transactions costs
  – Employment intensive schemes
     • Public infrastructure renewable energy sources, waste
       management, low cost housing, sanitation, etc
     • Micro, small and medium-sized enterprise support
     • Skills development
     • Youth employment schemes
     • Improved public employment services
G-20 stimulus packages, 2008-2010
         %GDP (PPP-weighted)
Shaping a fair and
        sustainable globalization
• Using the decent work agenda to create a
  sustainable future
     • Social protection, job creation, social dialogue, standards
• Investing in a green recovery
• Ensuring developing countries have the fiscal
  space to stimulate their economies
• Reforming the financial sector
  • to serve the real economy, promote sustainable
    enterprises & decent work, and protect people’s
    savings and pensions
Conclusion
• Social policy & economic policy goes hand in hand
• Universal provision of social security
   – This is perhaps the only message you should take home and
     influence your policy makers….
• Tends to be universal policies
• Multiple roles of social policy
   – nation building, promoting development
   – Production, protection, reproduction, distribution
• Democratic and good governance
   – No 1:1 relation, but democracy provides space for social
     articulation of interests
• Governments associated with social justice
Conclusion
– State-led provision of social services
   • Education, health,
   • Strong political leadership and will to improve
     welfare of citizens
      – State capacity & infrastructure to deliver
      – State as organizer, provider, ability to regulate & stimulate
        non-state actors
– Countries with high growth tend to have better
  social policies
History….some reflections
• Preamble 1919
  – Whereas universal and lasting peace can be
    established only if it is based upon social
    justice;
  – … provision for old age and injury
Philadelphia 1944

• labour is not a commodity
• poverty anywhere constitutes a danger to prosperity
  everywhere
• it is a responsibility of the ILO to examine and consider
  all international economic and financial policies
• policies in regard to wages and earnings, calculated to
  ensure a just share of the fruits of progress to all, and in
  need of such protection;
• the extension of social security measures to provide a
  basic income to all in need of such protection and
  comprehensive medical care

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Crisis Smallstates2

  • 1. Social policy response to financial crisis in small states Naren Prasad International Institute for Labour Studies, ILO London 7 July 2009 Commonwealth Meeting: Sustainable development in small states in a turbulent
  • 2. Social Policy • Social policy “is state intervention that directly affects social welfare, social institutions and social relations. It involves overarching concerns with redistribution, production, reproduction and protection and works in tandem with economic policy in pursuit of national social and economic goals” » UNRISD. 2006. Transformative social policy: lessons from UNRISD Research, (p. 1) • 16 lessons!
  • 3. A UN Report of 1957 • Social policy should not be treated “as a housemaid whose function is to tidy up human suffering and insecurity left in the wake of economic development”. • Social objectives should be built in on an equal footing with economic objectives into comprehensive social and economic planning” • Report on a Co-ordinated Policy regarding Family Levels of Living, United Nations, 1957, Sales no. 57.IV.7 (p. 18). ).
  • 4. Recovering from the crisis: A Global Jobs Pact • Accelerating employment creation, jobs recovery & sustaining enterprises • Building social protection systems & protecting people • Strengthening respect for international labour standards • Social dialogue: Bargaining collectively, identifying priorities, stimulating action …the way forward: Shaping a fair and sustainable globalization
  • 5. GJP: Generating growth • Stimulus packages • Boosting demand • Wage maintenance • Supporting enterprises • Green investments • Effective & efficient regulation to promote employment generation
  • 6. GJP: Protecting employment • Employment-oriented stimuli • Public works & job guarantees, training & skills development, and employment services • Supporting enterprises to retain workforce • Supporting job creation in enterprises, especially smaller businesses • Protecting labour standards & strengthening labour inspection • freedom of association, the right to organize & collective bargaining • prevention of forced labour, child labour & discrimination at work … aiming for full and productive employment
  • 7. Mauritius: Saving jobs – Riding our the global crisis: saving bobs- protecting people-preparing fro recovery – Stimulus package • saving jobs – 2,700 jobs saved through the Mechanism for Transitional Support, by helping enterprises that are at the breakdown point, 3000 indirectly • Public infrastructure • Manufacturing Adjustment and SME Development Fund (500 million rup, 0.2% of GDP) • Save jobs 4 billion rup (1.7% GDP) – 14.7 billion to stimulate economy (6.1% GDP) – 27.4 bn rup for infrastructure & transportation development (12% of GDP) » 126.3 bn rup over 10 yrs PPP
  • 8. Mauritius: GDP growth +6.0 +5.0 +4.0 +3.0 GDP +2.0 textile tourism +1.0 +0.0 2006 2007 2008 2009 -1.0 -2.0
  • 9. GJP: Guaranteeing social protection/security • Introducing cash transfer schemes for the poor • Guaranteeing basic social protection for all • access to health care • income security for the elderly & persons with disabilities • child benefits • income security combined with public employment guarantee schemes • Extending the duration & coverage of unemployment benefits • Protecting temporary & non-regular workers • Avoiding deflationary wage spirals
  • 10. Why social security? • Social security – Human rights (article 22 of UDHR) – “Everyone.. has the right to social security.. through national effort and international co-operation …”. – plays a crucial role in protecting people from risks such as income loss, sickness or old age – Old age, work injury, sickness & maternity, unemployment benefit, family assistance, other cash transfers – it can boost demand, create consumer confidence and create employment in crisis times
  • 11. Guaranteeing social protection Type of social protection Social protection instrument Role in Crisis Protective Social transfers Immediate protection and relief (social assistance) Disability benefits from poverty and Pension schemes deprivation Social services Preventive Social transfers Prevents damage to coping (insurance) Social insurance strategies Livelihood diversification Saving clubs Promotive Social transfers Promotes resilience through (Economic opportunities) Access to credit livelihood diversification School feeding and improves security Public works program Transformative Promotion of minority rights Transforms social relations to (addressing underlying social Anti-discrimination campaigns reduce exclusion vulnerabilities Social funds
  • 12. Social security: Current status • 20% of population covered by social security globally • Developed countries – Generous welfare system • Social democratic: Nordics • Conservative: Europeans • Liberal: Anglo-saxons • Developing countries • Underdeveloped, informal employment
  • 13. Old age social security • Pensions have a strong redistributive effect, and in reducing poverty – But in developing countries, pensions only to formal sector Distribution of public social spending by quintlies (average for 9 Latin American countries) 70 60 50 Education 40 Health % 30 Social Security 20 10 0 I II III IV V
  • 14. Pension coverage 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 0 Bolivia Indonesia Thailand OECD (30) Sri Lanka Argentina Japan Pakistan Australia India Philippines Canada Mexico France Vietnam Germany Korea China Italy Brazil US UK – In Asia only 20% of the population have access to health care, Chile 30% of the elderly receive pensions, 20% of those unemployed receive some kind of unemployment benefit such as training, public works (UNESCAP 2009). – Latin America, less than 30% of the labour force are covered by any pension (Rofman & Lucchetti 2006).
  • 15. Pension in small states 12 MUS SYC WSM CYP MLT 10 BLZ Pensio n index BHS BRB TT O 8 KNA LCA VCT DMA GRD GUY JAM 6 PNG FJI 4 SLBVUT KIR 0 5 10 15 Social welfare spen ding (% GD P)
  • 16. % GDP 0 10 20 30 40 19. 9678 20.3219 . 831954 Africa 4.3324 Revenue 2.46081 21. 5771 21. 6607 Expenses 3. 85301 4. 97327 3.55251 Latin America 17.9332 18.5321 Social security 1.09747 Asia 5. 45578 3.55732 32. 8386 Education 33.2248 12. 4736 5.5799 6. 37722 High income Health Current levels of revenue & spending
  • 17. Revenue, expenses % social security in small states 50 4030 % GDP 20 10 0 BRB CY P DV MUS JA M CPV KNA MLT PNG FJI TO SYC M T revenue expenses social security
  • 18. Developing/small countries social security • Social security (& labour standards) – Too expensive - unaffordable – First we need development • Universal pension – Mauritius (1958), Namibia (1990), Samoa (1990), Bolivia (1996), Botswana (1996) and the City of Mexico (2001) • Near-universal pension – South Africa, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Cost Rica and Uruguay
  • 19. Social security: Its possible… – Suppose a country provides… • Universal pension – 30 % GDP per capita to all 65+ • Basic health – 300 medical staff to 10,000 people • Child benefit – 15% GDP per capita to all children 0-14 • Social assistance/employment scheme – 30% of GDP per capita to the poor, – 10% of working age population for 100 days per year – What will it cost…..?
  • 20. Basic social security (% GDP) 6 5 Its possible for small states 4 3 % 2 1 0 dia l ea a l pia on ia pa am sh n ga so ny ta an in In ro Ne de Fa ne h io etn Ke kis Gu nz me la Se Et Pa ina Vi Ta ng Ca rk Ba Bu pension health child assistance
  • 21. GJP: Recovering with employer-employee dialogue • To reduce social tensions • To inspire confidence in the results achieved • To promote decent work solutions
  • 22. What social policy works • Evidence shows… – Minimum old age pensions and cash transfers to families seem to have the biggest poverty impact with the lowest transactions costs – Employment intensive schemes • Public infrastructure renewable energy sources, waste management, low cost housing, sanitation, etc • Micro, small and medium-sized enterprise support • Skills development • Youth employment schemes • Improved public employment services
  • 23. G-20 stimulus packages, 2008-2010 %GDP (PPP-weighted)
  • 24. Shaping a fair and sustainable globalization • Using the decent work agenda to create a sustainable future • Social protection, job creation, social dialogue, standards • Investing in a green recovery • Ensuring developing countries have the fiscal space to stimulate their economies • Reforming the financial sector • to serve the real economy, promote sustainable enterprises & decent work, and protect people’s savings and pensions
  • 25. Conclusion • Social policy & economic policy goes hand in hand • Universal provision of social security – This is perhaps the only message you should take home and influence your policy makers…. • Tends to be universal policies • Multiple roles of social policy – nation building, promoting development – Production, protection, reproduction, distribution • Democratic and good governance – No 1:1 relation, but democracy provides space for social articulation of interests • Governments associated with social justice
  • 26. Conclusion – State-led provision of social services • Education, health, • Strong political leadership and will to improve welfare of citizens – State capacity & infrastructure to deliver – State as organizer, provider, ability to regulate & stimulate non-state actors – Countries with high growth tend to have better social policies
  • 27. History….some reflections • Preamble 1919 – Whereas universal and lasting peace can be established only if it is based upon social justice; – … provision for old age and injury
  • 28. Philadelphia 1944 • labour is not a commodity • poverty anywhere constitutes a danger to prosperity everywhere • it is a responsibility of the ILO to examine and consider all international economic and financial policies • policies in regard to wages and earnings, calculated to ensure a just share of the fruits of progress to all, and in need of such protection; • the extension of social security measures to provide a basic income to all in need of such protection and comprehensive medical care