No hay notas en la diapositiva.
-observed global warming since mid-20 th century is ‘very likely’ the result of human activities -the response of natural and biological systems to the regional manifestations of this warming are being observed on every continent
-regardless of the success of mitigation efforts, we are committed to further global warming as a result of past emissions -and the pace of climate change is ‘very likely’ to increase over the 21 st century -the best estimate is that global average temperatures will increase 1.8 to 4.0 degrees by 2100 -the response of environmental systems to this warming will continue for centuries -what are the implications for tourism?? … this was the first question we examined
Figure shows the 2005 baseline emissions and the growth trajectory under ‘BAU’ scenario … again 2.5X as large in 30 years -three mitigation scenarios are also shown, where we change the assumptions of the ‘BAU’ scenario to show the potential for change in the tourism sector -in the first scenario we keep projected growth the same and just improve the technical energy efficiency in all three sub-sectors transport, accom. and activities subsectors -in the 2 nd scenario we keep air travel constant with 2005 and shift future growth in tourism transport toward modes with the lowest emission factors per pkm and increase LOS, while keeping all growth in visitation -final scenario we both improve combine the two scenarios and achieve -68% … importantly this translates into the only scenario with absolute reduction of emissions vs 2005, which is consistent with targets discussed at the recent Vienna Climate Change Talks’ … this shows that the goal of decoupling the anticipated large growth in tourism visits from growth in CO2 emissions is quite possible, but requires more than just technical improvements in EE The Technical Efficiency Scenario reduced CO2 emissions by 36% Emissions in the Modal-Shift and LOS Scenario were 43% lower than BAS for 2035, Notably, when the two scenarios were combined, CO2 emissions were reduced to 16% below the 2005 baseline and RF even by 55%.