1. Q3 2011 | Office
NORTH AMERICA
HIGHLIGHTS
Office Space Markets Far From Robust,
But Growing Nonetheless
ROss J. MOORE Chief Economist | USA
MARkET INdICATORs
Relative to prior period U.S. office markets posted another quarter of modest growth with slightly stronger demand and a mod-
est drop in vacancy. The much-anticipated recovery in the U.S. office market, however, remained largely
Q3 Q4
2011 2011* absent, with many businesses reluctant to commit to more space given the uncertainty in both the
domestic and global economies. With only modest economic growth and uneven employment gains, the
VACANCy outlook for the U.S. office space market is far from certain, which means rents are unlikely to show any
appreciable change for at least the next twelve months.
NET ABsORPTION
By comparison, Canadian markets enjoyed a reasonably good quarter on the back of a slightly more
CONsTRuCTION upbeat economy and a comparatively buoyant job market. Going forward, both the U.S. and Canadian
economies are expected to remain sluggish by historic standards, with little prospect of any material
RENTAl RATE
change in light of the global macroeconomic backdrop. Given the uncertainty surrounding the European
*Projected sovereign debt crisis and the accompanying stresses in the banking sector, demand for office space is
highly unlikely to increase from levels experienced in the last few quarters. The U.S. economy should
escape a double-dip recession, but growth is anticipated to remain in the 1.0 to 2.0 percent range.
Based on year-to-date gains in occupied space, San Francisco (including the San Francisco Peninsula)
is a clear standout among the nation’s office markets, but a number of others are seeing reasonably
u.s. OffICE MARkET
suMMARy sTATIsTICs, Q3 2011 good gains in occupancy, including Charleston, Charlotte, Dallas–Ft. Worth, Houston, New York,
Orange County, San Diego, San Jose, Seattle and Washington, DC. Also somewhat positive is the
Vacancy Rate: 15.22% nineteen-month-long gain in private-sector employment, averaging 136,000 jobs per month. Furthermore,
Change from Q2 2011: –0.09
continued on page 6
Absorption: u.s. OffICE MARkET Q3 2009 – Q3 2011
9.4 Million Square Feet
Office vacancies are
New Construction: 16.00 expected to continue
20 15.67 15.64
15.61 to trend down, but
4.3 Million Square Feet 15.46 15.39 15.30 15.5
Million Square Feet
10 14.85 14.98 15.22 oversupply conditions
Vacancy (%)
15.00
Under Construction:
15.15 will remain in many
14.50
32.4 Million Square Feet 0 markets for some
14.00
time to come.
-10 13.50
Asking Rents Per Square Foot
Q2 2010
Q4 2010
Q3 2010
Q1 2010
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q1 2011
Q2 2009
Q3 2009
13.00
(Change from Q2 2011): -20
12.50
Downtown Class A: $39.86 (2.3%)
-30 12.00
Suburban Class A: $25.55 (-1.9%)
Absorption Completions Vacancy
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5. highlights | Q3 2011 | office | north AmericA
uNITEd sTATEs | dOwNTOwN OffICE | ClAss A
AVERAGE ANNuAl QuARTERly ANNuAl
EXIsTING VACANCy VACANCy ABsORPTION ABsORPTION QuOTEd RENT CHANGE IN CHANGE IN
INVENTORy (sf) RATE (%) RATE (%) Q3 2011 yTd 2011 (usd Psf) RENT RENT
MARkET sEPT 30, 2011 JuNE 30, 2011 sEPT 30, 2011 (sf) (sf) sEPT 30, 2011 (%) (%)
Detroit, MI 11,416,000 14.74 16.03 (136,000) 150,000 22.50 (0.4) (1.0)
Grand Rapids, MI 1,567,000 20.21 22.34 0 5,000 21.00 5.2
Indianapolis, IN 9,776,000 12.17 12.55 (37,000) 34,000 19.40 1.5
Kansas City, MO 9,889,000 18.38 17.82 55,000 238,000 19.60 0.5 (6.1)
Minneapolis, MN 14,090,000 13.11 12.43 52,000 106,000 15.20 4.3
Omaha, NE 3,418,000 4.32 4.32 0 (25,000) 19.10 1.5
St. Louis, MO 10,755,000 14.73 15.91 (188,000) (203,000) 18.10 0.5 (5.0)
St. Paul, MN 3,433,000 8.86 8.99 (4,000) 12,000 13.40 (5.3)
MIdwEsT TOTAl/AVERAGE 150,727,000 14.83 14.88 (140,000) 741,000 24.76
wEsT
Bakersfield, CA 700,000 5.50 4.99 4,000 7,000 17.40 0.0 0.0
Boise, ID 2,038,000 5.75 6.46 (14,000) (27,000) 18.60 3.3 3.3
Denver, CO 20,569,000 11.99 13.01 (210,000) (87,000) 27.80 1.1 5.9
Fresno, CA 1,058,000 12.87 11.50 15,000 (22,000) 24.60 0.0 0.0
Honolulu, HI 4,709,000 13.27 14.21 (44,000) (93,000) 35.30 (0.3) (1.0)
Las Vegas, NV 808,000 11.26 9.12 36,000 3,000 33.70 4.5 (3.4)
Los Angeles, CA 17,734,000 15.63 14.98 116,000 (51,000) 38.50 0.0 (1.2)
Oakland, CA 10,198,000 10.49 11.20 (72,000) (127,000) 30.70 0.0 (1.2)
Phoenix, AZ 9,555,000 22.25 19.87 227,000 160,000 23.70 (0.6) (16.3)
Pleasanton/Walnut Creek, CA 7,950,000 19.36 16.94 193,000 116,000 27.60 5.5 5.5
Portland, OR 13,157,000 7.17 6.89 95,000 217,000 24.90 0.5 2.3
Reno, NV 548,000 21.10 17.32 31,000 100,000 23.30 3.2 (1.0)
Sacramento, CA 9,062,000 9.68 9.59 148,000 179,000 32.10 (0.7) (1.2)
San Diego, CA 7,254,000 18.89 17.36 111,000 (16,000) 28.30 (1.3) (3.3)
San Francisco, CA 52,333,000 14.01 12.66 656,000 1,315,000 38.40 4.0 6.0
San Jose/Silicon Valley, CA 3,365,000 30.91 31.60 (20,000) (69,000) 32.00 0.4 (7.6)
Seattle/Puget Sound, WA 32,337,000 18.33 17.22 359,000 660,000 30.50 3.0 7.0
Stockton, CA 2,774,000 22.19 20.25 14,000 (90,000) 20.50 (5.0) 11.8
wEsT TOTAl/AVERAGE 196,150,000 14.90 14.12 1,643,000 2,176,000 32.02
u.s. TOTAl/AVERAGE 1,022,893,000 14.35 14.46 443,000 8,068,000 39.90 weighted 2.26 2.36
27.40 equal 1.10 -3.32
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6. highlights | Q3 2011 | office | north AmericA
Office Space Markets Far From Robust, EMPlOyMENT, PROfEssIONAl & BusINEss sERVICEs
But Growing Nonetheless
100
Continued from page 1
office-using employment was relatively robust during the JulySeptember 80
Month to Month Change, thousands
period, with professional and business employment in particular up 3.4 percent
year-over-year (September). 60
u.s. office vacancies continue to drift lower. The U.S. national office vacancy
40
rate fell slightly during the July to September period, shifting nine basis points
lower (100 basis points equals one percent) to finish the quarter at 15.22
percent. During the third quarter, downtown vacancies increased six basis 20
points to register 13.90 percent at quarter end, while suburban office vacancies
dropped 16 basis points to average 15.87 percent. Over the past 12 months, the 0
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-10 Jul-11
U.S. national office vacancy rate has fallen 39 basis points. In the third quarter,
the flight to quality was particularly evident in Class A suburban markets -20
where vacancies shrank 50 basis points. Canadian office vacancy rates were
also mixed with the national central business district (CBD) vacancy rate
2010 2011
falling 54 basis points to 5.82 percent while suburban vacancies increased Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
16 basis points to 9.03 percent.
Office absorption positive for sixth the consecutive quarter. The U.S. office ABsORPTION (sf) | sElECT dOwNTOwN MARkETs | Q3 2011
market registered a sixth consecutive quarter of rising occupancy. Third-
quarter absorption came in at 9.4 million square feet (MSF). The composition 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000
of this quarter’s absorption was highly skewed to suburban markets, whereas
Midtown Manhattan
last quarter two-thirds of total absorption was in downtown markets. Standout
markets in the third quarter included Dallas-Ft. Worth, Houston, Midtown San Francisco
Manhattan, Orange County, Raleigh, Sacramento, San Francisco, San Diego,
Silicon Valley, suburban Detroit and suburban Washington, DC. Continuing a Seattle
trend seen over the past few quarters, Class A buildings continued to attract
Boston
“move-up” tenants: in particular, suburban Class A absorption totaled
8.0 MSF, or just over 85 percent of overall absorption. Canadian markets also Chicago
recorded an increase in occupied space during the third quarter, with absorp-
Houston
tion totaling 4.7 MSF. This was a healthy increase from the 3.6 MSF recorded
in the second quarter. Philadelphia
suburban rents take a further down-leg, CBd rents rise slightly. After small Washington, DC
decreases in the second quarter, CBD rents posted a modest increase and
suburban rents drifted lower in the most recent three-month period. Third-
quarter data shows Class A CBD rents increased 2.3 percent to average $39.86
per square foot. Class A suburban rents moved lower, dropping 1.9 percent to
ABsORPTION (sf) | sElECT suBuRBAN MARkETs | Q3 2011
average $23.55 per square foot. Of the 60 downtown markets tracked, 33 saw
rents decrease, 20 saw rents increase and seven held steady. In the 60 sub-
0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
urban markets, 29 markets saw rents drop, 24 rose and seven held steady.
Canadian downtown office rents moved substantially higher during the third Dallas
quarter, with Class A CBD rents increasing 6.1 percent while suburban Class
A rents increased 1.9 percent. Houston
Office construction remains at record-low levels. Third-quarter office com- San Jose/Silicon Valley
pletions totaled just 4.3 MSF—a modest drop from the second quarter when
Raleigh/Durham
5.7 MSF were brought online—leaving year-to-date new supply at 15.5 MSF.
Construction underway increased by just 2.0 MSF relative to the second quar-
San Diego
ter, with 32.4 MSF in various stages of development. Construction activity
remains exceptionally low by historic standards, and well below the cyclical Denver
high reached in the second quarter of 2008 when 121 MSF was underway.
The Canadian office market added a modest level of new construction during Raleigh/Durham
the third quarter, with the completion of 1.7 MSF square feet with another 7.3
Northern New Jersey
MSF underway.
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12. highlights | Q3 2011 | office | north AmericA
CANAdA | suBuRBAN OffICE | All INVENTORy
EXIsTING NEw suPPly uNdER VACANCy VACANCy ABsORPTION ABsORPTION
INVENTORy (sf) Q3 2011 CONsTRuCTION RATE (%) RATE (%) Q3 2011 yTd 2011
MARkET sEPT 30, 2011 (sf) (sf) sEPT 30, 2011 JuNE 30, 2011 (sf) (sf)
Calgary, AB 23,437,000 0 732,000 9.19 11.01 (470,000) 152,000
Edmonton, AB 8,940,000 0 40,000 13.31 13.48 167,000
(15,000)
Guelph, ON 1,374,000 17,000 0 3.79 4.82 2,000 3,000
Halifax, NS 6,388,000 53,000 90,000 10.41 9.43 89,000 127,000
Montreal, QC 23,771,000 150,000 0 9.41 9.55 99,000 186,000
Ottawa, ON 20,956,000 318,000 0 7.74 8.02 234,000 (143,000)
Regina, SK 659,000 0 0 0.14 0.14 0 3,000
Toronto, ON 68,351,000 138,000 727,000 7.64 7.10 1,085,000 1,992,000
Vancouver, BC 27,273,000 0 785,000 10.75 10.59 44,000 138,000
Victoria, BC 3,573,000 0 113,000 10.18 8.54 0 66,000
Waterloo Region, ON 6,316,000 332,000 175,000 7.71 12.55 1,000 58,000
CANAdA TOTAl/AVERAGE 191,037,000 1,008,000 2,662,000 8.86 9.03 1,069,000 2,749,000
CANAdA | suBuRBAN OffICE | ClAss A
VACANCy VACANCy AVERAGE ANNuAl QuARTERly ANNuAl
EXIsTING RATE (%) RATE (%) ABsORPTION ABsORPTION QuOTEd RENT CHANGE CHANGE
INVENTORy (sf) sEPT 30, JuNE 30, Q3 2011 yTd 2011 (CAd Psf) IN RENT IN RENT
MARkET sEPT 30, 2011 2011 2011 (sf) (sf) sEPT 30, 2011 (%) (%)
Calgary, AB 10,829,000 7.94 10.63 (291,000) 349,000 40.00 5.3 23.1
Guelph, ON 838,000 0.86 3.20 (2,000) (7,000) 26.00 7.1
Halifax, NS 2,675,000 8.52 7.64 26,000 32,000 29.10 4.0 8.9
Montreal, QC 13,336,000 7.77 7.87 88,000 198,000 30.00 0.0 25.0
Ottawa, ON 11,944,000 7.80 8.04 264,000 276,000 30.00 0.2 (0.2)
Regina, SK 659,000 0.14 0.14 0 3,000 28.50 0.0 16.3
Toronto, ON 30,652,000 8.81 7.35 650,000 1,075,000 30.00 0.3 (4.9)
Vancouver, BC 13,132,000 13.07 10.88 287,000 350,000 38.30 0.0 4.3
Victoria, BC 817,000 8.67 8.93 0 (2,000) 40.00 0.0 21.2
Waterloo Region, ON 2,745,000 8.42 16.85 72,000 102,000 23.70 8.2 (8.9)
CANAdA TOTAl/AVERAGE 87,628,000 8.89 8.68 1,093,000 2,377,000 32.30 weighted 1.91 4.34
31.60 equal 2.18 6.34
Glossary
Inventory – Includes all existing multi- or single- New supply – Includes completed speculative and Cap Rate – (Or going-in cap rate) Capitalization
tenant leased and owner-occupied office properties build-to-suit construction. New supply quoted on a rates in this survey are based on multi-tenant
greater than or equal to 10,000 square feet (net net basis after any demolitions or conversions. institutional grade buildings fully leased at market
rentable area). In some larger markets this minimum rents. Cap rates are calculated by dividing net
size threshold may vary up to 50,000 square feet. Annual Quoted Rent – Includes all costs associated operating income (NOI) by purchase price.
Does not include medical or government buildings. with occupying a full floor in the mid-rise portion of
a Class A building inclusive of taxes, insurance, Note: sf = square feet
Vacancy Rate – Percentage of total inventory maintenance, janitorial and utilities (electricity Psf = per square foot
physically vacant as at the survey date including surcharges added where applicable). All office rents CBd = central business district
direct vacant and sublease space. in this report are quoted on an annual, gross per
square foot basis. Rent calculations do not include
Absorption – Net change in physically occupied sublease space.
space over a given period of time.
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