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Analysis of Agricultural Water
     Productivity ( WP-3)

        Bharat Sharma
     Basin focal Project on
      Indo-Gangetic Basin
Water Productivity – The Concept


        Water productivity (WP) is “the physical mass of
        production or the economic value of production measured
        against gross inflow, net inflow, depleted water, process
        depleted water, or available water” (Molden, 1997, SWIM
        1). It measures how the systems convert water into goods
        and services. The generic equation is:

                        3        3  Output derived from water use (kg/m 2 or $/m 2 )
Water Productivity (kg/m or $/m ) =
                                                 Water input (m 3 /m 2 )




                                                                               2
Why map water productivity ?



The overarching goal of Water Productivity assessment is
to identify opportunities to improve the net gain from water
by either:

• increasing the productivity (physical/ economic) for the
same quantum of water; or

• reduce the water input without or with little productivity
decrease.



                                                               3
Basin WP Mapping – What to Care ?


• Magnitude of agricultural and water
  productivity;
• Spatial variation of WP;
• Scope for improvement: How much and
  where;
• Irrigated vs. rainfed;
• Crop vs. livestock and fisheries.



                                            4
Basin WP: Multi-indicators

• Land productivity
   – Individual crop yield (kg/m2)
   – Standardized gross value production (SGVP) ($/ha)
• Livestock and fisheries
   – Production ($)

• Water use (IWMI water accounting framework)
   –   Available water (m3)
   –   Irrigation diversion (m3)
   –   Potential ET (mm)
   –   Actual ET (mm)

• Water productivity
   – Combination of above productivity (numerator)
     and water use (denominator)
                                                         5
Basin WP: The Methodology


• Basin WP initial assessment

• Sub-catchment modeling and verification

• Scaling up-down




                                            6
District level WP Estimates based on Crop Productivity
           Census data and Consumptive Use Estimates




Source: Upali & Sharma, 2008

                                                                    7
Trends in Water Productivity in Rice,
         Bangladesh Districts (1968-2004)


KHARIF                    RABI                   ALL




                                                       8
Irrigation canal commands in Punjab (Pakistan) and spatial variation
in annual actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in Punjab for year 2004-05
       (using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land, SEBAL)




                                                                  9
Sampling variation in productivity
                                                                Average Farm Size in Rechna Doab
                                   14
                                                          12
                                   12                                                                                     10.7
                                                                              10.4

                                   10                                                               9.3




                Farm Size (Ha)
                                            8

                                            6

                                            4

                                            2

                                            0
                                                        Upper              Middle                Low er           Overall Rechna

                                                                                                            Average Farm Area (ha)

                                                                Land Distribution Pattern in Rechna Doab
                                                50
                                                45
                                                40




                         Percentage Share
                                                35
                                                30
                                                25
                                                20
                                                15
                                                10
                                                 5
                                                 0
                                                     Landless Less than   1.01 to    2.01 to3   3.01 to5   5.01 to10    10.01     Greater
                                                                1 ha      2.0 ha        ha         ha         ha       to20 ha    than 20
                                                                                                                                    ha
                                                                            Farm Categories

                                                               Percent Households                   Percent Share of Land




                                                                                                                                 10
Cropping intensity across Rchna-Doab



                                    250


                                    200




               Cropping Intensity
                                    150


                                    100


                                     50


                                      0




                                          11
Annual Water Use
Patterns from Major
Sources across
Sub-divisions of
Rechna Doab




                12
Basin WP Initial Assessment
                              Agricultural productivity calculation flow chart

          Census               Crop group/           Time series
      production data           LULC map             MODIS data


     Crop productivity                             Biomass estimate
     map (district wise)                              (pixel wise)

                                                                                    GT data

                                                              Yield
                                                                                 Census data
                            Disaggregation*                 Biomass
                                                                                Literature info.
                                                          Harvest index
                                                                                                      Livestock         Fishery
                                                                                 MODIS NPP         Production*price Production*price
                           Crop productivity map
                             (kg/m2, pixel wise)
     Local and
international prices

                        Crop standardized gross
                                                                                                            productivity map
                         value productivity map
                                                                                                         ($/m2, district average)
                            ($/m2, pixel wise)




                                                                         Agricultural
                                                                      productivity map
                                                                      ($/m2, pixel wise)
                                                                                                                                    13
Basin WP Initial Assessment


                Agricultural productivity calculation flow chart




                 Disaggregation*   from district wise average yield value
                                   to pixel wise average yield value


The disaggregation procedure takes district wise average yield from census
data. Assuming harvest index (HI) does not vary for same crop, the yield of pixel
i is calculated as:

                                                           Biomass of pixel i
            Yieldpixel i = Average yield of district   *   Average biomass



                                                                                    14
Basin WP Initial Assessment
   Water depletion estimate flow
                chart
                                               *SSEB: Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model
                        MODIS Land Surface
Points weather data                            SSEB assumes linear relationship between latent heat flux
                         Temperature data
                                               (ET) and land surface temperature (Gabriel et al., 2007). Hot
                                               pixels and cold pixels are identified to represent no ET and
                                               maximum ET.
Points reference ET

          Kc                                                                    TH − Tx
                                                                 ET frac      =
Points potential ET
                             Evaporative                                        TH − TC
                        fraction map (SSEB*)


                                                            ETact = ET0 ∗ ET frac
               Actual ET map
                   (mm)                                    ETact – the actual Evapotranspiration, mm.
                                                           ETfrac – the evaporative fraction, 0-1, unitless.
                      Seasonal time series
                                                           ET0 – Potential ET, mm.

               Water depletion                             Tx – the Land Surface Temperature (LST) of pixel x
                 map (mm)                                  from thermal data.
                                                           TH/TC – the LST of hottest/coldest pixels.


                                                                                                               15
Sub-catchment Modeling and Links to
                                     Basin WP Assessment

                                                    Time series
              Data input                                                        Weather data
                                                    Landsat data



         Agro-hydrological                           Biomass
                                                                          SEBAL           SSEB
          Model (OASIS)                              modeling                                    Validation


                                                  Biomass estimate
                                                     (pixel wise)
                                   Validation

Water accounting                                    Yield estimate
                           yield                                               Actual ET maps
  components                                            (kg/m2)


                                                                                 Validation

              Model unit                                             Landsat                          Basin MODIS
             Average WP                                              WP map                             WP map




                                                           Verifications



                                                Water productivity values, variations,
      scenarios                                  factors and potential assessment
                                                                                                                    16
Dataset
             Weather data                                  Agricultural data

•   58 weather stations
•   Data period: 1995-2007 (more to come)
                                                            •   District wise crop area and
•   Item: daily mean, max, min temperature; mean sea            production
    level pressure; mean humidity; precipitation; mean
    & max wind speed.
                                                            •   State wise livestock and fishery
                                                                production
                                                            •   Local and international prices




                                                                                             17
Dataset            ..
                   LULC Map
10km, GIAM, 1999    1km, USGS, 1992-1993    500m, Thenkabail et al, 2005




                                                                18
Dataset
    MODIS 250m 16 day NDVI mega-dataset (2006)




                                                 19
Dataset                     .
MODIS 1km 8 day Land surface temperature mega-dataset (2006)




Note: Curve breakdown is due to existence of clouds


                                                       20
Dataset               ..
Groundtruthing (8th -17th Oct, 2008)

   Rice (cultivated)
                                       Dual irri. Canal system




                                          •    Across Indus-Gangetic
                                               river basin
                                          •    >2700km covered
                                          •    175 samples
                                                 –   LULC
                                                 –   Cropping pattern
                                                 –   Agricultural productivity
                                                 –   Water use (surface/GW)
                                                 –   Social-economic survey




                                                                         21
   Cotton                                     Rice mixed with tree plantation
22

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Analysis of agricultural water productivity in the Indo-Ganges Basin

  • 1. Analysis of Agricultural Water Productivity ( WP-3) Bharat Sharma Basin focal Project on Indo-Gangetic Basin
  • 2. Water Productivity – The Concept Water productivity (WP) is “the physical mass of production or the economic value of production measured against gross inflow, net inflow, depleted water, process depleted water, or available water” (Molden, 1997, SWIM 1). It measures how the systems convert water into goods and services. The generic equation is: 3 3 Output derived from water use (kg/m 2 or $/m 2 ) Water Productivity (kg/m or $/m ) = Water input (m 3 /m 2 ) 2
  • 3. Why map water productivity ? The overarching goal of Water Productivity assessment is to identify opportunities to improve the net gain from water by either: • increasing the productivity (physical/ economic) for the same quantum of water; or • reduce the water input without or with little productivity decrease. 3
  • 4. Basin WP Mapping – What to Care ? • Magnitude of agricultural and water productivity; • Spatial variation of WP; • Scope for improvement: How much and where; • Irrigated vs. rainfed; • Crop vs. livestock and fisheries. 4
  • 5. Basin WP: Multi-indicators • Land productivity – Individual crop yield (kg/m2) – Standardized gross value production (SGVP) ($/ha) • Livestock and fisheries – Production ($) • Water use (IWMI water accounting framework) – Available water (m3) – Irrigation diversion (m3) – Potential ET (mm) – Actual ET (mm) • Water productivity – Combination of above productivity (numerator) and water use (denominator) 5
  • 6. Basin WP: The Methodology • Basin WP initial assessment • Sub-catchment modeling and verification • Scaling up-down 6
  • 7. District level WP Estimates based on Crop Productivity Census data and Consumptive Use Estimates Source: Upali & Sharma, 2008 7
  • 8. Trends in Water Productivity in Rice, Bangladesh Districts (1968-2004) KHARIF RABI ALL 8
  • 9. Irrigation canal commands in Punjab (Pakistan) and spatial variation in annual actual evapotranspiration (ETa) in Punjab for year 2004-05 (using Surface Energy Balance Algorithm for Land, SEBAL) 9
  • 10. Sampling variation in productivity Average Farm Size in Rechna Doab 14 12 12 10.7 10.4 10 9.3 Farm Size (Ha) 8 6 4 2 0 Upper Middle Low er Overall Rechna Average Farm Area (ha) Land Distribution Pattern in Rechna Doab 50 45 40 Percentage Share 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Landless Less than 1.01 to 2.01 to3 3.01 to5 5.01 to10 10.01 Greater 1 ha 2.0 ha ha ha ha to20 ha than 20 ha Farm Categories Percent Households Percent Share of Land 10
  • 11. Cropping intensity across Rchna-Doab 250 200 Cropping Intensity 150 100 50 0 11
  • 12. Annual Water Use Patterns from Major Sources across Sub-divisions of Rechna Doab 12
  • 13. Basin WP Initial Assessment Agricultural productivity calculation flow chart Census Crop group/ Time series production data LULC map MODIS data Crop productivity Biomass estimate map (district wise) (pixel wise) GT data Yield Census data Disaggregation* Biomass Literature info. Harvest index Livestock Fishery MODIS NPP Production*price Production*price Crop productivity map (kg/m2, pixel wise) Local and international prices Crop standardized gross productivity map value productivity map ($/m2, district average) ($/m2, pixel wise) Agricultural productivity map ($/m2, pixel wise) 13
  • 14. Basin WP Initial Assessment Agricultural productivity calculation flow chart Disaggregation* from district wise average yield value to pixel wise average yield value The disaggregation procedure takes district wise average yield from census data. Assuming harvest index (HI) does not vary for same crop, the yield of pixel i is calculated as: Biomass of pixel i Yieldpixel i = Average yield of district * Average biomass 14
  • 15. Basin WP Initial Assessment Water depletion estimate flow chart *SSEB: Simplified Surface Energy Balance Model MODIS Land Surface Points weather data SSEB assumes linear relationship between latent heat flux Temperature data (ET) and land surface temperature (Gabriel et al., 2007). Hot pixels and cold pixels are identified to represent no ET and maximum ET. Points reference ET Kc TH − Tx ET frac = Points potential ET Evaporative TH − TC fraction map (SSEB*) ETact = ET0 ∗ ET frac Actual ET map (mm) ETact – the actual Evapotranspiration, mm. ETfrac – the evaporative fraction, 0-1, unitless. Seasonal time series ET0 – Potential ET, mm. Water depletion Tx – the Land Surface Temperature (LST) of pixel x map (mm) from thermal data. TH/TC – the LST of hottest/coldest pixels. 15
  • 16. Sub-catchment Modeling and Links to Basin WP Assessment Time series Data input Weather data Landsat data Agro-hydrological Biomass SEBAL SSEB Model (OASIS) modeling Validation Biomass estimate (pixel wise) Validation Water accounting Yield estimate yield Actual ET maps components (kg/m2) Validation Model unit Landsat Basin MODIS Average WP WP map WP map Verifications Water productivity values, variations, scenarios factors and potential assessment 16
  • 17. Dataset Weather data Agricultural data • 58 weather stations • Data period: 1995-2007 (more to come) • District wise crop area and • Item: daily mean, max, min temperature; mean sea production level pressure; mean humidity; precipitation; mean & max wind speed. • State wise livestock and fishery production • Local and international prices 17
  • 18. Dataset .. LULC Map 10km, GIAM, 1999 1km, USGS, 1992-1993 500m, Thenkabail et al, 2005 18
  • 19. Dataset MODIS 250m 16 day NDVI mega-dataset (2006) 19
  • 20. Dataset . MODIS 1km 8 day Land surface temperature mega-dataset (2006) Note: Curve breakdown is due to existence of clouds 20
  • 21. Dataset .. Groundtruthing (8th -17th Oct, 2008) Rice (cultivated) Dual irri. Canal system • Across Indus-Gangetic river basin • >2700km covered • 175 samples – LULC – Cropping pattern – Agricultural productivity – Water use (surface/GW) – Social-economic survey 21 Cotton Rice mixed with tree plantation
  • 22. 22