IBM 2010 Global Technology Outlook - Presentation at IBM Systems Technical University – Lyon, France - 25-29 October, 2010

1. IBM Systems Technical University – Lyon, France - 25-29 October, 2010
“A Global Technology Outlook from a
Systems & Technology Group perspective”
Claude Riousset
Executive IT Architect
IBM Systems & Technology Group
« Lite version »
© 2010 IBM Corporation
Global Technology Outlook 2010 - Do not Distribute

2. “Today, innovation is about much more than new
products. It is about reinventing business processes
and building entirely new markets that meet
untapped customer needs.
Most important, as the Internet and globalization
widen the pool of new ideas, it's about selecting and
executing the right ideas and bringing them to
market in record time.”
2006………… 2009
A Radical Rethink of R&D
IBM has launched a major initiative to
capitalize on the changes. It's forming tieups
with governments, universities, and companies
globally to harness new ideas and pursue
promising avenues of research.
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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3. IBM Research
~3,000 employees
China
Zurich Tokyo
Almaden Watson Haifa
Austin India
IBM Research Lab
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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4. Evolution of IBM Research
Collaboration for a
Smarter
Planet
Integrated
Solutions
Research Agenda
Services
Software
Hardware
1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2008
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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5. IBM Research: Collaborative Innovation
China Pangoo
Zurich Tokyo
Almaden Watson Haifa
Austin India
IBM Research Lab
Global, Smarter Planet Collaborations
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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6. A diversity of disciplines
Behavioral Electrical
Computer Science
Science Chemistry Engineering
Materials
Mathematical Science Service Science
Science Physics
Science & Business &
Engineering Management
Technology Business
Innovation Innovation
Social Demand Innovation
Innovation
Social & Economics &
Cognitive Markets
Sciences
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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7. A Culture of Innovation – External Recognition
9 US National Medals
of Technology 5 US National 6 Turing Awards
5 Nobel Laureates Medals of Science
Copper Chip Silicon-on-
Technology Insulator
Nuclear
SiGe DRAM Magnetic
High Temperature Electron Tunneling Basis for
Superconductivity Effect Resonance MRI today High Performance Computing
Techniques First woman recipient in the history of
Scanning Tunneling Microscope this prestigious ACM award
22 Members in 64 Members in National 10 Inductees in
National Academy of > 400 Professional Academy of National Inventors Hall
Sciences Society Fellows Engineering of Fame
AAAS APS IEEE
ACM AVS IOP
ACS ECS OSA
Laser-etched hair based on excimer
laser surgery – foundation for LASIK
surgery
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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8. 17 Consecutive Years of Patent Leadership
2009 US Patent Leaders
5000 4914
4000
Number of Patents
3000 2906 >3x
>15x
2000
1537
1273
1000
289 250 208 141 43
0
IBM Microsoft Intel HP Apple EMC Oracle Google Accenture
Source: IFI Patent Intelligence © 2010 IBM Corporation
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9. A legacy of world-class research
2009 Nano MRI
2008 World’s First Petaflop Supercomputer
2005 Cell
2004 Blue Gene/L
2003 Carbon Nanotubes
1997 Copper Interconnect Wiring
1997 Deep Blue
1994 Silicon Germanium (SiGe)
1987 High-Temperature Superconductivity
1986 Scanning Tunneling Microscope
1980 RISC
1971 Speech Recognition
1970 Relational Database
1967 Fractals
1966 One-Device Memory Cell
1957 FORTRAN
9
1956 RAMAC © 2010 IBM Corporation

10. 10 Research Contributions Over the Last 10 Years
Services WebSphere Systems Database
Technology Management Technology
Supercomputing Mainframe System Unix Systems
Technology Technology Technology
Silicon Storage
Game Processor
Technology Technologies
Technology
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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11. By 2011, the world will store 10X the Data stored in 2006, BUT,
1,800
10x
1,600 growth in Data
over five years
1,400
RFID,
Exabytes
1,200
1,000
Digital TV,
MP3 players,
800 Digital cameras,
Camera phones, VoIP,
600
Medical imaging, Laptops,
smart meters, multi-player games,
400
Satellite images, GPS, ATMs, Scanners,
Sensors, Digital radio, DLP theaters, Telematics ,
200 Peer -to-peer, Email, Instant messaging, Videoconferencing,
CAD/CAM, Toys, Industrial machines, Security systems, Appliances
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Internet connected devices will grow by 2000X, from 500M to 1 Trillion,
and each will demand that someone “listen”.
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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12. Dominant Technology Trends
Conventional CMOS scaling benefits are diminishing.
A Conventional CMOS scaling benefits are diminishing.
B C
Transistor performance Power is limiting practical Single thread performance is
scaling to continue, but at a performance slowing dramatically
slower rate
Relative
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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13. The Core Issue Then and Now; Power
As Classical Scaling Ends, Innovation Accelerates
CPU
1
L2 Cache
CPU
2
Multi-Core SoC / eDRAM
Module Heat Flux (watts/cm2)
14 “Lower-Power” Multicore
CMOS
12
Innovation Required
Bipolar
10 Power4
8
6 Junction
Transistor
4 Integrated Water
Circuit Cooling
2
Vacuum
tube
IBM
360
?
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Year of Announcement 3D Integration
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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14. Holistic Design; Innovation at All Levels of Systems Stack
Clouds Help improve Data Center efficiency
System
Management Allow better asset utilization
Hybrid Systems Enhance emerging workload consolidation
Security Provide trusted computing
10G Ethernet Enable network fabric convergence
3D Integration Revolutionize chip packaging
Flash Increase system performance and efficiency
Multi-core
Processors Change hardware system design
Computational
Lithography Extend CMOS density scaling
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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15. Innovation Across Novel Materials, Structures, Processes, and
Architecture Continues …
Airgap
3D Chip
Stacking
eDRAM
High-k
Frozen SiGe
Chip
Immersion
Dual Core Nanophotonic
Switch
Atomic
Strained Molecular Storage
Silicon Processing
SOI Nanotube
Copper Slowing IC
Self Speed of
Assembly Light
Highest
Carbon Resolution
Atomic Nanotube STEM
Manipulation Transistors
Nobel Prize, STM
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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16. IBM demonstrates 100GHz graphene transistor
Feb 7th 2010 , IBM researchers announced that
they managed to open up a bandgap for
graphene-based field-effect transistors, but
they're now already back to show off what that's
made possible: a 100GHz graphene transistor.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2010/02/05/ibm_graphene_transistor/
Le graphène est un cristal bidimensionnel
(monoplan) carbone dont l'empilement constitue
le graphite. Les électrons se déplacent sur le
graphène à une vitesse de 1 000 km/sec, soit 30
fois la vitesse des électrons dans le silicium.
Grâce encore à ses propriétés de cristal
bidimensionnel, un transistor de graphène ne
s'échauffe pas.
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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17. DNA transistor: breakthrough fast sequencing & low cost
The sequence of 3 billion chemical units
("letters") that compose a person's genome
contains many of the clues for that person's
health care. A necessary step towards
unfolding those clues and usher the era of
personalized medicine is to be able to read
those letters, and to do so in fast and cheap
way.
Research challenge is to create a solid state
device, functionalized with addressable
electrodes, that reads the sequence of DNA
letters as a single DNA molecule translocates
through a pore of nanometer size in one day
and for less than $1000.
17 © 2010 IBM Corporation
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18. GTO 2010, the genetic map
18 © 2010 IBM Corporation
GTO 2010

19. 2010 Global Technology Outlook
Industry Transformation
1. Enabling Technologies for Healthcare Transformation
Evidence-based medicine, payment-for-outcomes
Analytics & Optimization
2. Orchestrating the Smarter Planet
Models and model orchestration enable integrated operation and optimization
Software &
Services
3. Software Technology Trends
New development models, tools and methods transforming the SW industry
4. Future of Legacy
Tools & services to “Identify, Improve and Operate” legacy
Systems & Infrastructure
5. Convergence of IT and Wireless Infrastructure
IT enabled wireless infrastructure optimizations
6. Workload Optimized Systems
HW, SW co-design, integration, optimization
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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20. Smarter Traffic - Stockholm Congestion Management
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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21. Petascale achieved 2008 . . . Exascale new target
Exascale possibilities for a smarter planet
More than doubling the world's oil reserves
exascale computing could predict with incredible
accuracy the location of oil deposits, increasing
those recovery rates to as high as 70%.
Predicting and fighting pandemics in real-time
exascale systems can turn around disease
prediction, identification and cures in real time,
allowing doctors to outrun the epidemics of
tomorrow.
Real-time analysis of oceans of financial
services data
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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22. Reservoir projects: Resources and Services Virtualization without barriers
2010 Research challenges:
1. Ease of Integration
2. Hypervisor Independence
3. Scalability
4. Image Provisioning
5. Boundaryless Placement and
Migration
6. Virtual Java Service Container
(VJSC)
http://62.149.240.97/ © 2010 IBM Corporation
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23. Client needs and workloads are definitely not unique
Mixed Workloads Parallel Data Structures with
Updates to shared data and work queues Analytics
Type 1 Type 3
Characteristics vary: Application Usage Pattern SLA Data Structure
Highly Threaded Applications Small Discrete Application
Instances
Type 4
Type 2
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One size DOES NOT fit all © 2010 IBM Corporation

24. An Application Specific Solution
Stream Computing, aka How not to drown in data
A new paradigm for ultra low latency and high throughput in-motion analytics
Continuous Ingestion Continuous Queries /Analytics on data in motion
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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25. Streams Processing Building Blocks
Transform
NYSE
Dynamic
VWAP
P/E Ratio
Calculation
Calculation
Annotate
10 Q
Millions of Events
Earnings
Extraction
Correlate Join P/E
SEC Edgar Earnings with
Moving Aggregate
Average Impact
Caption Calculation
Caption
Extraction
Caption Earnings
Extraction Earnings
Extraction Topic Related
Earnings Earnings
Topic
Filtration Related
News News
Topic
Filtration Related
News Trade
Speech Analysis Join
Video News Speech
Recognition
Filtration News
Analysis Decision
Video News Speech
Recognition Analysis
Video News Recognition
Hurricane
Hurricane Forecast
Hurricane
Model 1 Hurricane Hurricane
Weather Forecast
Hurricane Hurricane
Risk Industry
Data Model 2
Forecast
Hurricane Impact
Encoder Impact
Weather Data Extraction Model …
Forecast
Model N
Filter Classify
< 1 millisecond latency
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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26. TD Bank reference
Building a next generation trading platform
Identify and execute trades
Process over 5M events per second
with average latency of 150
microseconds
Expand to incorporate content
feeds, news text, audio, video, to
establish greater context for better
decisions
CIO TD Bank "TD Bank Financial Group worked with IBM Research to develop a first-of-a-kind
architecture capable of consuming, analyzing and acting on real-time market data while maintaining
sub-millisecond response times even under extreme data loads”
© 2010 IBM Corporation
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27. Life-Changing When Applied in Medicine
University of Ontario Institute of Technology
A Research Project to monitor premature infants in the ICU
Correlating blood oxygenation with
blood pressure to predict “Baby
crashing”
Nosocomial Infection Prediction
– Monitoring heart rate variability with
other information to predict sepsis
– Alarms up to 24 hours earlier
than by experienced ICU Nurses
http://www.youtube.com/ibmhealthcare © 2010 IBM Corporation
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28. What makes IBM’s approach so unique?
Cloud
FLEXIBLE
Smart Business
Services and DELIVERY
Systems
CHOICES
Integrated
Service Management
INTEGRATED
SERVICE
MANAGEMENT Infrastructure-wide Virtualization
Workload Optimized Systems
System Software
System z Power Systems System x Storage Data Center A WORKLOAD
Networking
OPTIMIZED
Technology Leadership APPROACH
…..looking at IT service delivery from the business’ perspective.
28 © 2010 IBM Corporation

29. 29 © 2010 IBM Corporation