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COPA * COGECA The Outlook for EU agriculture Brüssel, 29th June 2011 Session II Market outlook for selected sectors, opportunities and constraints to productivity and the Contribution of input suppliers The Dairy sector Dr. Stefan Weber LMS Landwirtschaftsberatung , Rostock-Germany
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Analysis of the milk market Dr. Stefan Weber
EU 27: Exports of Milk Products ,[object Object],2010 in 1.000 to, January-December 2009 *einschließlich Butter öl Butter* Käse VMP MMP KDM Molken- pulver Kasein Quelle: ZMB nach Eurostat Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
Increase in purchasing power and demand for milk-products in emerging economies Market situation / development Percentage change in GDP (2011) Quelle: World Bank, DMK Seite Dr. Stefan Weber 8,7% 7,7% 4,7% 5,3 % 4,3% 4,0% 1,4% 3,0% 4,0% 2,8% ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Development in global Milk-Production towards 2019 Market- situation / -development GUS, Ozeanien, Asien, Rest Nordamerika EU Development of Production of Raw Materials in Mio. kg 2019 +165,3 Mrd kg 2009 -2019 Quelle: OECD, FAO, DMK Seite Dr. Stefan Weber ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
World Demand – Forecast by OECD/FAO ,[object Object],Development of demand worldwide 1.000 t Cheese Butter MMP VMP Quelle: OECD-FAO 2010: Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019, DMK Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
Distribution of world population on the continents ,[object Object],World Population 2004: 6,4 Mrd. World Population 2050: 9,3 Mrd. Asien Asien Afrika Afrika EU EU Quelle: Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
In future, the world's growing population will be supplied with high-quality food ,[object Object],World Population 2050: 9,3 Mrd Zunahme in Mio. Quelle: Deutsche Stiftung Weltbevölkerung Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
Population development in Germany until 2050 ,[object Object],85 80 75 70 65 60 Population in Mio. Quelle: Grundlage: Variante 6 - W1: "relativ alte" Bevölkerung; Geburtenhäufigkeit: leicht fallend, Lebenserwartung: hoch, Wanderungssaldo: 100 000 Basis: 31.12.2005; Quelle: Destatis 2006 Seite Dr. Stefan Weber
State of Play of the german agricultural sector? Shares of the EU-27 agricultural production 2008-2009 (in%) Quellen: AMI Dr. Stefan Weber
Cost of milk production in comparison to the european average , ct/kg ECM Quelle: EDF Dr. Stefan Weber
Milk production in kg/ha LF: Dr. Stefan Weber *) Für Rheinland-Pfalz, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Sachsen und Thüringen liegen keine Milchleistungsdaten auf Kreisebene vor. Berechnung: Milchkuh (Kreis) * Ø Milchleistung (Bundesland) / ha LF (Kreis) Quelle: Lassen et al. 2008 vTi. kg je ha LF *) < 500 501 – 1.000 1.001 – 1.500 1.501 – 2.000 2.001 – 3.000 > 3.000
Germany as a location for milk– by Region Dr. Stefan Weber Quelle: Situationsbericht BV, BZA DLG Forum Spitzenbetriebe
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlock for the milk market I.! Dr. Stefan Weber
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Outlock for the milk market II. ! Dr. Stefan Weber
Dr. Stefan Weber

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Stefan Weber

  • 1. COPA * COGECA The Outlook for EU agriculture Brüssel, 29th June 2011 Session II Market outlook for selected sectors, opportunities and constraints to productivity and the Contribution of input suppliers The Dairy sector Dr. Stefan Weber LMS Landwirtschaftsberatung , Rostock-Germany
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  • 10. State of Play of the german agricultural sector? Shares of the EU-27 agricultural production 2008-2009 (in%) Quellen: AMI Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 11. Cost of milk production in comparison to the european average , ct/kg ECM Quelle: EDF Dr. Stefan Weber
  • 12. Milk production in kg/ha LF: Dr. Stefan Weber *) Für Rheinland-Pfalz, Baden-Württemberg, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Sachsen und Thüringen liegen keine Milchleistungsdaten auf Kreisebene vor. Berechnung: Milchkuh (Kreis) * Ø Milchleistung (Bundesland) / ha LF (Kreis) Quelle: Lassen et al. 2008 vTi. kg je ha LF *) < 500 501 – 1.000 1.001 – 1.500 1.501 – 2.000 2.001 – 3.000 > 3.000
  • 13. Germany as a location for milk– by Region Dr. Stefan Weber Quelle: Situationsbericht BV, BZA DLG Forum Spitzenbetriebe
  • 14.
  • 15.

Notas del editor

  1. Analog zu den Entwicklungen der Produktion wird für den Zeitraum 2008-2017 weltweit ein jährliches Nachfragewachstum von etwa 2,1% für VMP, 2,0% für Butter, 1,7% für MMP und 1,3% für Käse prognostiziert. Es ist jedoch davon auszugehen, dass Angebot und Nachfrage nicht linear und konstant ansteigen werden, sondern dass es immer wieder auch zu temporären Verschiebungen am Weltmilchmarkt kommen kann. Die EU wächst nur bei Käse, ansonsten deutliche Rückgänge.