Presents a Web 2.0 investment strategy for business and government that aims to help you outperform the market by investing at a lower cost. 3 sections: a) Web 2.0 and the enterprise overview, why it's much harder than most people think, b) the Web 2.0 Adoption Curve model, how the Web 2.0/social networking will have a correction in 2010, and how this can be an opportunity for you, c) how you can adopt Web 2.0 at a lower cost than your competitors and create competitive advantage

1. Web 2.0 Investment Strategy
Outperform Rivals by Using Adoption Curve
University of Chicago Booth, 19 October 2009
Entire contents © 2008-09 by Christopher S. Rollyson

2. Agenda
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• One: Web 2.0 and the Enterprise
– The opportunity and the challenge
• Two: The Web 2.0 Adoption Curve
– How most of the market will adopt, at a high cost
• Three: A Web 2.0 Investment Strategy
– How you can adopt, at a lower cost by using the Web 2.0
Adoption Curve
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3. My Perspective
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• 20 years experience as management
consultant and line executive
• Expertise: disruptive innovation, strategy
and transformation
1 • Strategy and execution for game-changers:
Web 2.0 Java, e-business, SOA, Web 2.0, social networks
and the
Enterprise • Thought leader: 3 blogs in global top 10
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4. What I’ve Learned about Technology Disruptions
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1
1. In the beginning: small and fringe-y
– “Oh, - - - , my kids do that”
– “That’s for overcaffeinated people with too much
time on their hands”
1
Web 2.0
2. Isolated upsets and denials
– “- - -, no real company is going to (do business
on the Internet)”
2
3
and the
Enterprise 3. Tentative consideration
– “We may need a website--but only for some
departments”
4. Full acceptance
– “We need websites for most of our businesses”
– “Why don’t we build private websites for
customers and partners?”
4
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5. Social Networks & Web 2.0: Why the Disruption?
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• Many-to-many
• Rich asynchronous
1
• Social ecosystem
• Expertise economy
Web 2.0
Blog
Web 2.0
and the
Enterprise • Real-time, global
• Inexpensive Wiki
• Specific
• Digital, Fast
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6. The Relationship Life Cycle: Plummeting
Copyrighted Transaction Costs across the Board
material
1. Discovery
– Finding people with highly specific interests & needs
– Digital breadcrumbs everywhere when you know where to look
2. Invitation
1 – Initiating a relationship asynchronously
– Practice authenticity and transparency
Web 2.0
and the 3. Building
Enterprise
– Developing relationships with interactions
– Focus on building trust
4. Management
– Keeping up my relationship via meaningful interactions
– Online to prequalify
– Offline to build highest value
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7. Social Networking Meets the Enterprise
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Enterprise Social Networking
• Process-oriented • People-oriented
1
•
•
•
Organization
Involuntary
Channels, slow
! •
•
•
Collaborative
Voluntary
Transparent, fast
Web 2.0
and the • The multiplicities of push • Infinite pull, with strings
Enterprise
• Structured, siloed • Cross-boundary,
emergent
?
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8. BIG Idea
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Web 2.0 will transform
1 business because it
Web 2.0
and the
Enterprise
changes the economics of
relationships... but it’s work
to adapt to the enterprise
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9. The Web 2.0 Adoption Curve, 2009-2015
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You are here
2
Web 2.0
Adoption
Curve
How most of the market will evolve through 2015
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10. Discover, Hype & Experimentation, 2006-2009
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“Irrational exuberance”
• Shiny new toy: “cool”
• Provider-driven marketing
2 • Superficial stories
Web 2.0
Adoption • Not much responsibility
Curve
• No down side
• Meaningless “metrics”
• Widespread talk of investment
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11. Failure and Disappointment, 2010
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“Ignorant criticism”
• Demotion from silver bullet status
• Mainstream media backlash
2 • Disillusionment with “ROI”
Web 2.0
Adoption • No solid up side
Curve
• “Harder than we thought”
• Widespread de-investment
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12. Triumph and Pervasive Adoption, 2011-15
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“Maturing investment”
• Relationship-oriented
• Money follows trust
2 • Specific programs
Web 2.0
Adoption • Digital social networks enable
Curve
more communication
• Widespread ROI models
• Increased competition for
attention
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13. BIG Idea
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The adoption pattern is very
2
Web 2.0
predictable… just reflect on
Adoption
Curve
other disruptions you have
seen
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14. Risk Mitigation Enables More Aggressive Adoption
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Obvious Web 2.0 Risks Overlooked Web 2.0 Risks
• Negative word of mouth • Opportunity cost
• Embarrassment by not • Loss of competitiveness
3 being “with it” due to inferior collaboration
Web 2.0
Investment • Loss of brand value due to • Investment
Strategy
competitor success mismanagement & under-
investment
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15. Using the Adoption Curve to Outperform Rivals
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3
Web 2.0
Investment
Strategy
The power of risk mitigation
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16. Risk Mitigation Approach
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The Stages Techniques
• Assess • Rapid cycles
– Match goals with organization – Short feedback loops enable
and stakeholder realities fast correction, less waste
3 • Pilot • Transparency and inclusion
– Try social networking initiatives – Involve legal, PR, revenue
Web 2.0 in small chunks to manage risk owners and accounting early
Investment
Strategy – Learn & iterate in short cycles • Focus on external and internal
• Scale stakeholders
– Expand elements of effective – External focus on workstreams
pilots, expand scope and scale within the ecosystem
• Integrate – Explicit focus on change
– When you stabilize social • Budgeting
networking processes, – Structure pilots to minimize
integrate them with legacy need for normal ROI process
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17. Avoiding Common Pitfalls
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• Leading with technology
– Technology imposes process on people
and they don’t adopt
• Having fuzzy, non-actionable goals
3 – Results harder to track, and your initiative loses support
• Focus on what your firm needs rather than stakeholders
Web 2.0
Investment – SHs will not be stimulated and will not engage
Strategy
• Chunking innovation too large
– Spend too long on ROI discussions
• Depending too much on experts and vendors
– Web 2.0 is core; it needs to become your O/S
• Falling into the efficiency tech trap, not using portfolio
– Letting a monolithic tech solution be everything to everyone
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18. Investment Process
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1. Begin with due diligence
– Be explicit: what stakeholders do you want to engage?
– Understand the ecosystem: where do they interact most?
– Motivations: what is important to them?
3 2. Assess your capabilities
– What meaningful expertise can you contribute consistently?
Web 2.0
Investment – Identify organizational risks and barriers
Strategy
3. Start with small-but-important pilots, and measure constantly
– Small to manage cost risk and minimize ROI discussion
– Measure/adjust to catch mistakes quickly
– Build to last, and propagate skills
White Label Blogging
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19. Example Pilots
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• Blog outreach program
Blogging
• LinkedIn Group
• Microblogging
3
Web 2.0
• Facebook Group or Page
Investment
Strategy
• Cause-focused community
White Label
• YouTube campaign
• MySpace Site or Group
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20. Example: Social Network Roadmap Pilot
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Phase 1: Web 2.0 Phase 2: Web 2.0 Phase 3: Web 2.0
Ecosystem Audit Readiness Implementation
3 • Assess Web 2.0 • Define stakeholder • Design pilots to
environment activity/workstreams mitigate risk
Web 2.0
Investment • Identify stakeholder • Understand firm USP • Fast cycles with
Strategy characteristics and how transfers to rapid feedback
– Internal Web 2.0 venues • Small investments
– External • Assess resources to • Portfolio approach
• Web 2.0 analysis engage stakeholders • Knowledge transfer
focus
• Influencer analysis • Measure gaps
Requirements for Pilots
End
End
State
State Ecosystem vision Stakeholder vision Pilot design
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21. BIG Idea
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Web 2.0 is 21st century
2 dialtone: adoption is a
Web 2.0
Adoption
Curve
strategic necessity…
getting this right will
determine winners
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22. Resources to Help
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• The Social Network Roadmap
– Helps companies use Web 2.0 for innovation
– http://socialnetworkroadmap.com
– Currently rated #1 worldwide by Technorati
• The Global Human Capital Journal
– CEO/CMO/CIO journal for innovation Microblogs
3 – Currently rated #10 worldwide by Technorati
http://twitter.com/eglii
– http://globalhumancapital.org http://twitter.com/egtw
Web 2.0
Investment • The Executive’s Guide to Web 2.0 http://twitter.com/egfb
http://twitter.com/csrollyson
Strategy – EGLI blog currently rated #4 worldwide by Technorati
http://twitter.com/snroadmap
– EGTW management advice for Twitter, blogging http://plurk.com/user/csrollyson
– EGFB management advice for Facebook http://identi.ca/csrollyson
– http://executivesguide-web20.com http://kwippy.com/csrollyson
http://csrollyson/tumblr.com/
• Social networks
http://friendfeed.com/csrollyson
– http://www.linkedin.com/in/csrollyson
– http://www.facebook.com/csrollyson Other
– http://myspace.com/csrollyson
skype/IM - csrollyson
– http://tinyurl.com/orkut-csrollyson iphone - chris@rollyson.net
– http://tinyurl.com/xing-csrollyson iphone +1.312.925.1549
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