The document provides contextual analysis of recent political, economic, social, technological, demographic, and geographic trends on both national and worldwide scales, highlighting specific trends in red and blue that informed brainstorming and futurecasting activities. Examples of cultural sharing practices are analyzed and organized based on the individuals, communities, actions, and values involved, while opportunities for design intervention are identified by examining leverage points where small changes could lead to large shifts in systems.

1. contextualizing trend analysis
with andrew whitcomb + claire kohler
political economic social technological demographic/geographic
Less political compromise in the United States United States Economic Bubbles More women working, all age groups Wireless communication Worldwide population increase
U.S. Presidential Spending by Candidates
(trade in products or assets with inflated values) 5.3 billion in 1990, 6.8 billion in 2009.
2008: $1,324,000,000 1995-2001: Dot-Com bubble Affects living arrangements and home Mobile phone subscriptions increased to 69.04
2004: $717,000,000 2008: Housing market bubble environments of children per 100 people in 2009 (from 42.22 in 100, 2006; 1 Worldwide population growth rate decreasing
2000: $343,000,000 in 100, 1994).
1996: $240,000,000 United States (and world?) shift from Female employment increased 3% from 1994–2005, 5% for 1.7% in 1990, 1.2% in 2009.
manufacturing workforce to information and many countries, as much as 20% (for developed countries) Faster computing
2008, Columbia, 4.8 million participate in 365 protests orches- technology driven Gender wage gap closing: 28% avg difference in incomes, 1980. Negative growth in many Eastern European countries, higher
trated through facebook 18% avg difference, 2004. Microprocessor transistor counts in CPUs doubled growth in lower-income countries
Number of working-age immigrants in the United States has every two years since 1971.
2009, in Moldova a 10,000 person protest is organized through swelled, from 14.6 million in 1994 to 29.7 million in 2010; in Global life expectancy increasing
twitter Changing female educational ambition and achievement
2007 the percentage of highly skilled workers overtook that of More universal access (internet)
lower-skilled workers 65 years in 1990, 67.2 in 2009
1945, United Nations forms to facilitate international relations More diverse families
and work towards world peace 1995: World trade organization is created to facilitiate free Larger number of internet users: 16 million in mid Most African nations holding steady, increasing very slightly,
trade Falling marriage rates: From 1970–2004, from over 8 marriages 1990s, to over a billion by 2006. 27.1% of world or decreasing in past 20 years, often well under global avg.
1993, European Union officially established as political and per 1,000 ppl each year, down to to only 5. population by 2009.
economic partnership between European countries The Fairtrade Labelling Organizations International (FLO), cre- Rise in urbanization
ated in 1997 Rising divorce: From 1970–2004, rates doubled Broadband access has risen sharply: OECD aver-
1999, Several countries in the European adopt a common cur- age around 17% 29% of world pop. lived in urban centers in 1950, 49% in 2005,
rency: the “euro” Between March 2007 and March 2008, global Rise in single-parent households projected 60% in 2030. Developed countries generally have
food prices increased an average of 43 percent, Information overload higher proportion of urban population but developing coun-
June 2009, First meeting of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) Increase in “reconstructed families,” parents found new part- tries higher urbanization rate. (In the past 40 years, India’s
held, the partnership is meant to improve per capita income according to the International Monetary Fund. ner or children move between parents urban population has grown by more than 350%.)
Growing number of websites: from 18,000 in 1995 to 100 mil-
and living conditions. The four nations contain 42% of the lion in 2007. 90% of growth occurred since 2000.
world’s population but only 15% of its GDP Social security funding could cease by 2017 Rapidly falling births Emergence of “”megacities”” in 21st century (pop > 10 mil-
Digital revolution (economic also?) lion). Currently there are 21 megacities. Challenges: slums,
2001-2011: United States engages in military action against 2010 unionization rate in United States at 11.9, down from 12.3 Some sections of society maintain more traditional family homelessness, gentrification, traffic congestion, urban sprawl,
Afghanistan, Iraq percent in 2009 and 20.1 percent in 1983, when there were 17.7 patterns pollution.
million union members. The peak unionization rate was 35 More universal access (internet)
percent during the mid-1950s (NC has lowest rate at 3.2)
2011: Rioting in London coordinating using mobile technology; Evolving values Broadband access has risen sharply: OECD Need to allow people to feel that they can escape the metropo-
clean-up operations supported by thousands on Twitter and lis (although they still may be inside it): limit feeling of being
Facebook 1944 World Bank is created; World Bank provides loans to Stronger secular-rational values are associated with the average around 17% “trapped” in a city
developing countries. Official goal of the WB is reduction of decline in religious engagement, and other orientations are
Wisconsin limits collective bargaining rights of union workers: poverty closely linked to it: less deference to authority; greater toler- Information overload What makes a city a great place to live? Small-scale neigh-
Law eliminates most collective bargaining for most public ance to divorce, abortion, euthanasia, and suicide; and lower borhoods, green spaces, efficient transportation (bike- and
unions. Workers will contribute more toward health insurance 1980s and 1990s dramatic rise in NGOs; The NGO sector is now pedestrian-oriented as well as vehicular), nurturing small and
the eighth largest economy in the world — worth over $1 tril- nationalism.
and pensions. Bargaining limited to negotiating wages; unions informal businesses as well as corporations (vibrant public
required to hold a vote of members every year to continue. lion a year globally. It employs nearly 19 million paid workers, spaces), low crime rates, sanitation
not to mention countless volunteers[1]. NGOs spend about Stronger self-expression means lower emphasis
$US15 billion on development each year, about the same as the on economic and physical security and more on Health
World Bank subjective well-being and quality of life.
Obesity: 23% in 1990, 34% in 2009 (US)
2009, introduction of Bitcoins: Digitally signed transactions, Other related orientations are: lower stress
with one node signing over some amount of the currency on diligence and hard work, and more on
to another node, are broadcast to all nodes in a peer-to-peer Diabetes: 2.7% in 1990, 6.6% in 2009 (US). 70% of
network imagination and tolerance as important values to people with diabetes globally live in developing
teach. countries. Global diabetes rate expected to rise
from 6.4% in 2010 to 7.8% in 2030 (438 million
Less social interaction people).
Engagement appears to be growing in places where it is high HIV/AIDS: emerged in 1970s, but only became an issue with
and declining in some of the places where it is low; in other first cases in the US. Little knowledge or understanding of
words the differences in social activity between countries are sexual behaviors in Africa meant that disease spread quickly
getting wider. and has taken several decades to begin to slow the number of
new cases per year.
trend analysis
Decreasing involvement in traditional organizations like
churches and trade unions. Bioterrorism a 21st century threat (anthrax, smallpox)
Membership of voluntary organisations is high and growing Unprecedented rate of new diseases: one or more per year.
around recent
in the Nordic region and certain other European countries, is Due to vast population growth, inhabiting areas that were
stable or fluctuating elsewhere, but seems to be falling in the previously uninhabited, rapid urbanization, intensive farming
United Kingdom, some Central Eastern European countries, practices, environmental degradation, and misuse of antimi-
nation- and world-
Portugal and Turkey. The same country pattern emerges for crobials, which has disrupted the equilibrium of the microbial
an indicator of more deliberate engagement - undertaking world. Also, huge amount of air traffic means that diseases can
unpaid voluntary work. spread to other continents within hours. (SARS is good exam-
wide patterns
ple: a previously unknown disease that had no geographical
Asking the question, “Do you in general trust other people?” affinity, incubated silently over a week, mimicked symptoms
(to be answered “yes” or “you can’t be careful enough”) reveals of other diseases, took heaviest toll on hospital staff, and killed
and statistics acted as a jumping again in the Nordic countries and the Netherlands that gener-
alised trust is high, even rising, while in several Southern and
10% of those infected. The perfect modern disease.)
Central Eastern European countries it is lower and falling.
off point for analyzing cultural Increased number of mainstay antimicrobials that are failing
due to viruses evolving, becoming drug resistant (XDR-TB
Low levels of organization membership broadly go hand-in-
examples of sharing. Specific hand with low levels of trust.
(extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis) a good example—a
huge threat in Sub-Saharan Africa.)
trends highlighted in red informed Education? Threat of chemical disasters also a more modern develop-
ment (Chernobyl, nuclear plant failures in Japan because of
contextualizing brainstorming and earthquake)
other activities. Blue highlighted Increasing need for global collaboration in order to identify,
prevent, contain, and control outbreaks (this applies to health
trends were referenced in the later threats from natural disasters as well). Sharing research,
knowledge, materials important to prevent global outbreak.
futurecasting phase of work. Vaccines, technology must not be available only to the
wealthy.
Widespread panic can spread quickly via internet—but also
makes concealment of outbreaks impossible for gov’ts. Inter-
national Health Regulations (2005) authorize WHO to take into
account information sources other than official notifications.

2. contextualizing characteristics
with andrew whitcomb + claire kohler
characteristics of sharing communities
organic affinity diagram suggests circular movement, interaction, and relationships between varying points on rings.
individuals: people who share
siblings athletes newcomers
individuals parents farmers music listeners
neighbors contributors designers
teachers/educators bloggers bus/train/subway riders
scientists mentors city leaders
communities scholars
actions communities: groups of people who share
families unions sports teams and fans
governments hobby groups religious communities
values nations
professional organizations
clubs/school-sponsored
groups
social networks
online dating services
actions: how they share
giving/taking tagging reusing
reselling contributing repurposing
communicating swapping retelling stories
commenting lending
values: why they share
qualities of sharing motivations for sharers qualities of sharers
communities environmental health altruism
balance between rules personal health trust
& freedom save money passionate about cause
clearly defined feel good pride in mission
expectations generate extra cash honesty
stories/legends reputation
educating newcomers
looking out for the
greater good
shared language

3. leverage points indicate opportunities for design to intervene in systems and facilitate change. contextualizing leverage points with andrew whitcomb + claire kohler
Higher leverage points indicate greater degrees of change. We found areas of design most suited to address the leverage points, and themes
within examples of specific points of intervention.
leverage points design’s ability to influence themes found in examples
PARADIGM SHIFT
system design: NON-PHYSICAL COMMUNITIES
SELF-ORGANIZATION trends-communal,
national, global INDIVIDUAL EMPOWERMENT
CHANGING THE RULES + CHOICE
CRITICAL NODES
experience design: INFORMATION USAGE
INFORMATION how we collect + use
information INFORMATION GATHERING/
FEEDBACK LOOPS DISSEMINATION
STOCKS & FLOWS
product design: IDLING CAPACITY
STRUCTURE tangible objects + tools
ASSEMBLY LINE PRODUCTION
AMOUNTS/QUANTITIES

4. contextualizing yields
with andrew whitcomb + claire kohler
combining leverage points with the
characteristics of community diagram
yielded a way to measure impact among specific examples. We contended that
examples and themes within the central rings that reached to the highest leverage
points would find the most profound impact, and would provide the most timely
design opportunities. We might identify further design needs by examining how
examples and themes can be pushed to function at higher leverage points.
non-physical
communities
ex: communities no
longer based on
proximity
information
use ex: publication of
product footprints
information
gathering &
dissemination
ex: GPS monitoring
of buses
idling capacity
ex: self check-out

5. futurecasting storyboard
futurecasting opportunities for sharing
with marysol ortega + michael carbaugh
“Meals with Meaning” follows the Dawsons, a family of three that enjoys eating together.
Jared is a 9 year old with Type I Diabetes. Kelly, a single mother, enjoys cooking Kelly keeps busy as an Accountant and is Kelly discovers an online system that
family meals for her two sons, Jared and often rushed to cook. recommends meals for families, even
Daniel. taking dietary restrictions into account.
The Dawsons find a recipe that everyone A few days later, Kelly is in a hurry and After Jared suffers from a reaction, Kelly Jared is now 14 years old. The platform has expanded to offer more
is excited about. has to bring home fast food. On the way uses the website to seek help balancing recipes and connects the Dawsons to
to soccer, Kelly forgets to bring Jared’s Jared’s diet. other families.
insulin.
The Dawsons meet the Johnsons and Jared gets ice cream with a friend after Kelly is in a hurry that evening and has After dinner, Kelly is surprised to find out
begin tele-cooking together. Jared meets school and doesn’t tell him mom. to bring home fast food. that Jared isn’t feeling well.
a new friend, Jeremy.

6. futurecasting storyboard
futurecasting opportunities for sharing
with marysol ortega + michael carbaugh
“Meals with Meaning” follows the Dawsons, a family of three that enjoys eating together.
Jared admits that he grabbed ice cream Kelly explains to Jared that he needs to The platform has a special app for teen- Jared is 19 and a Freshman in college. Jared enjoys cooking with his roomates;
after school with a friend. take responsibility for his own health. agers that Jared tries out. the platform is now more robust and
integrated into their refrigerator.
Jeremy, Jared’s childhood friend, invites After their meal, Jared sends his mom Jared goes on his first college date and Lisa enjoys her meal with Jared. While Lisa goes to the bathroom, Jared
him and his roomates to tele-cook. a message with his recent vitals. He is gets his favorite meal, spaghetti. realizes he has been eating a lot of carbs.
proud that he is being responsible.
The platform measures the nutritional Lisa asks Jared to get ice cream. Lisa lets Jared know that he shouldn’t be Lisa and Jared hold hands.
content of Jared’s meal and alerts him hesitant to watch his nutrition around
that he is at risk for hyperglycemia. her.

7. theorizing principle
rebecca knowe
statement
By incorporating the principle of feedback into user-friendly systems, designers can promote a culture of
ownership and belonging within the groups the systems serve. If users feel a sense of belonging when
interacting with others in a system, they will continue to engage with it. The process of continually
gathering and incorporating their feedback can lead the system to evolve into what users most want
and need it to be. Feedback also strengthens the relationship between designers and users of a system,
promoting dialogue and allowing both parties to share with each other more freely.
feedback
description
community members
Rather than designers of a system making decisions as to what users need and
from want based on their personal assumptions and preferences, by structuring the
system to garner feedback from actual users, the designers can make changes
users will more likely respond positively to. When feedback is incorporated
into a system as part of its inherent structure, this can assure the system's
should be integral to designed longevity. Those who use the system will know best what they need from
it, so users are key sources for important knowledge of how the system can
systems and research processes function better. Designers should incorporate systemic processes that both
solicit feedback and respond to feedback. Structures for gathering and using
used to create them community member feedback must be incorporated into both the research
process and into the designed system. Structure will be needed to most
efficiently get feedback from its source to the influencers who can change the
system, while an openness and free-flowing culture of dialogue will also be needed to ensure honest
and accurate feedback. The cultivation of a shared language will enable designers and users to converse
platforms for sharing should continually be more usable freely about needed changes to a system.
by the communities they serve, adapting to the ways the rationale
community changes over time. Design of a platform should continually be more usable by the community it serves, adapting to the
ways the community changes over time.
Users will have greater trust in the designers behind a system
community members will have greater trust in the Closer relationship between designers and user population (dialogue)
designers behind a system when their feedback is valued
example
and incorporated. If members of an interdisciplinary team wanted to archive new aspects of their meetings within a
collaborative system, it would be important for the system's designer to understand their feedback.
systems for feedback promote closer relationships through This feedback would need to come throughout the entire lifetime of the system—from conception
to implementation to modification during use. A system for feedback could enable a dialogue that
dialogue between designers and community members. promotes needed changes at each point in the lifetime of the system. Continually updating the system
to meet users' needs will increase its relevancy to their lives and ensure its use.
incorporating feedback into the research and design of a implications
system will promote a culture of ownership and belonging Users will need to be willing to engage with the feedback affordances
Users will need to feel that their feedback is valued.
in the community. Users will expect their feedback to be valuable to the operation of a system

8. theorizing process
rebecca knowe
research & analysis synthesis & prototyping
designers reflect guide interpret iterate
on current landscape community members community design changes
enabling community in research procedure member findings according to community
feedback
synthesize member directives
test
synthesize test
research findings to changes to system
decide most needed for closest match to
changes feedback
participants reflect describe iterate
through interviewing most common and preferred changes
other community important interview to system using
members topics prototyping tools
broadcast broadcast
research changes &
findings to redesigns to
community community
vehicles for feedback
Research/analysis phase: designers guide activities
community members in researching one another’s Reflecting is collaborative
most pressing needs. Designers publish research Description is generated by users
findings for the community to review. Synthesis is collaborative
Synthesis/prototype phase: community members Iteration is generated by designers/programmers phases roles
use specialized interface tools to redesign the Testing is collaborative Reflection on current state/problem Designers
system in the ways that best seem to meet the Description of problem Programmers
community’s common needs. Designers make flow Synthesis of feedback Participants
changes and broadcast news of the changes for Cyclical and ongoing throughout lifetime of Iteration of solutions Stakeholders (community founders)
community members to test and review. community Testing Webmaster/moderator

9. theorizing method
rebecca knowe
overview
participant participant Design researchers act as consultants to guide users of the system through conducting their own
research. Community members interview one another to discover what the most pressing problems
or needed changes to the system are, using interview guides of suggested questions and topics, also
understanding that they may cover other areas as deemed significant. Designers assist community
members in organizing the data to determine the most common priorities
for action. (Based on the “practitioner-as-researcher” method, a type of action
interview guide science/action inquiry research, by Bensimon/Polkinghorne.)
Participants would be given the following questions to ask
interview partners, with instructions to record one another’s In the next phase, using the research findings, community members and
answers either digitally or in writing. Instructions on designers engage together in prototyping. Community members use the
interviewing could be given via worksheets or mobile devices. significant areas for action to drive their own redesigns of the relevant system
structures. This would take place using a set of interface prototyping tools
allowing members to move and change the system components. Members
what do you think draws people who discussed the relevant topics in their interviews are given access to the
prototyping tool, where they may create iterations of rearrangements or
to use the system? redesigns to the section of the system in question. Designers would respond to
members’ prototype redesigns by incorporating members’ ideas into revision
iterations of the system, consulting prototype creators where necessary for
what makes them continue using it? clarity. Together the designers and community members would test and revise
the system until both parties are satisfied with the changes.
how do you typically use the system? purpose
Designers can know what users are needing in their own words, according to their own organization/
representation of the reality they deal with.
in the past have you ever thought
about how the system could be better application
Used during research/analysis and prototype/synthesis phases
used in any way?
setting
Can be deployed online or within the system/platform
have you encountered any specific
problems while trying to use the roles
Designers and other stakeholders must be involved to direct the user research work
system?
technique
Could be initiated by contacting most involved/active/interested members of the community. members
what route would you use to give interview one another in person or online.
feedback on the system’s strengths
instrument
and weaknesses? Interview guide for community members to interview one another
results
what kind of feedback would you Reported by users to designers; designers take suggestions for changes to system
expect to hear? Designer can learn what changes are most important to users and why