Real estate market in 2013 made a good start. Despite economy slowdown and negative industrial production index market remained solid in Q1 with record investment volumes and strong sector performance. Political and macroeconomy trends in Russia become more or less shaped after turbulent year 2012 and micro level prospects are now more or less clear. Corporations are not planning any significant expansion and focus on operational efficiency. So relocations are well planned driven by solid reasoning.
Extraordinary investment market results (3.4 USD bn in Q1 2013) are driven by two large deals that were negotiated in 2012.
However despite good start of the year we do not change our forecast for 2013 because of the expected slowdown in Q2 and disruption of business caused by March events in Cyprus.
Cyprus jurisdiction used widely by Russian real estate companies and investors due to favorable double tax avoidance treaty, English legal system and flexibility of local banks. Bank crisis will not destroy this system but will disrupt investment activity until major issues are settled down. It is not clear so far will any other jurisdiction may compete with Cyprus for real estate operations, but undoubtly investors will explore other options.
In Q2 economy will face recovery of industrial production so after Q1 destocking half year figures will be similar to previous year. However real estate market will slow down a little bit in comparison with fast start of the year.
Major threat for real estate business is increasing currency risk. Growing budget deficit creates pressure on Ruble which may lead to exchange rate ajustment later this year. However so far it is unclear how government will handle this deficit. That is why our 2013 outlook remains basically unchanged.
Indicators to watch in Q2:
-Logistic construction volumes
-Office take up in Moscow
-Shopping centers footfall
2. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 1
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
INFORMATION RESOURCES
CWRUSSIA.RU
Market information, contacts news
MARKETBEAT.RU
Latest Marketbeat report, reports archive, interactive maps
ICUSHMAN
Mobile application for Commercial real estate
professionals, available at iTunes
SOCIAL NETWORKSWEB
3. INTERACTIVE MAPS
OFFICES SHOPPING CENTERS WAREHOUSES
You need Flash player installed and internet connection for the interactive map to run
Click to open in browser
4. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 3
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
AGENDA
MACROECONOMY
RETAIL
OFFICE
WAREHOUSE
LAND
CAPITAL MARKETS
6. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 5
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
RUSSIA 2013: THE ECOONOMY IS UNDER PRESSURE
Noticeable slowdown in Q1
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013
GDP growth,% CPI YoY,%
THE REAL ECONOMY HAS ALMOST STALLED IN Q1, WITH LESS THAN 1% GROWTH. IT WAS THE FORTH
CONSECUTIVE QUARTER OF THE ECONOMY SLOWDOWN.
THE INFLATION HAS STEADY UPWARDS TREND WITH A SOFTENING ACTIVITY IN THE ECONOMICS.
GDP vs. CPI GDP MAIN DRIVERS
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
TOTALGDP
CARGO
TRANSPORTATIONS
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
AGRICULTURAL
PRODUCTION
RETAILSALES
TELECOM
SERVICES
PAID
SERVICES
CONSUMERGOODS
ANDOTHERSERVICES
7. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 6
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
MACRO PERFORMANCE AND FORECASTS
Source: Ministry for Economic Development, URALSIB Capital, Renaissance capital
THE ECONOMY WILL LIKELY TO ACCELERATE IN Q2 AND FURTHER, HOWEVER THE GROWTH PACE WILL BE
LOWER THAN EXPECTED.
ON APRIL 12TH MINECON OFFICIALY UPDATED THE 2013 FORECAST, WHERE ECONOMY GROWTH WAS LOWERED
TO 2.4% FROM 3.6% FOR BASE SCENARIO. OTHER KEY ECONOMIC INDICATORS WERE DOWN BY 50 – 100 BPS.
ROSSTAT'S
ACTUAL
2012 2013 2013 2014 2015 2016 2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
GDP, % 3.4 0.9 * 2.4 3.7 4.1 4.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 4 4 -
CPI yoy, % 6.6 7.1 6.7 5.3 5.1 5.1 6.9 6.7 6.5 5.8 5.5
Industrial production, % 2.6 -1.5 * 2 3.4 3.4 3 2.8 2.9 2.9 4 4 -
Retail trade turnover, % 5.9 3 * 4.3 4.9 5 5 5.3 5.7 5.7 5.7 5 -
Fixed Investments, % 6.6 0.6 * 4.6 6.6 7.2 7.6 5.2 5.8 5.8 6.9 7.2 -
Disposable income, % 4.2 3.5 3 4.4 4.6 4.7 4 4.7 4.7 - - -
Real wages, % 8.4 5.2 4.5 5.2 6 6.2
Mining and extraction, % 1.1 -1.7 * 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.3
USD / RUR rate, avg. 31.1 31.1 31.1 32.4 33 33.7 31.6 31.3 31.4 31.4 32.5 -
URALS, USD / bbl 110.5 113.1 97 101 104 108 109.6 114.0 117.0 - - -
* January - February
MINISTRY FOR ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
URALSIB CAPITAL RENAISSANCE CAPITAL
8. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 7
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
WORLD MAIN ECONOMIES IN 2013
IMF forecast
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Brazil
China
India
Japan
Russia
Singapore
South Africa
United Kingdom
United States
EuroArea
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
Brazil
China
India
Japan
Russia
Singapore
South Africa
United Kingdom
United States
EuroArea
GDP GROWTH, % CPI, %
THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY IS COMPETITIVE ON THE WORLD’S SCENE.
ONE OF THE MAIN CHALLENGES OF 2013 WILL BE THE INTERNAL DEMAND.
9. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 8
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
RETAIL MARKET
2013 FORECAST
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN MOSCOW 180,000 sq m
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN REGIONS 1,600,000 sq m
PRIME RENTAL RATE INDICATOR 3,800 USD per sq m per annum, triple net
FORECAST UNCHANGED
10. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 9
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
RETAIL MARKET VOLUME
Russia is No.3 Retail Market in Europe
RETAIL TURNOVER IN EUROPE* RUSSIA RETAIL TURNOVER **
*Data of 2011, bn USD , GFK GeoMarketing
**Source: ROSSTAT
RUSSIAN RETAIL TURNOVER GROWTH CONTINUES TO DECELERATE BUT STILL ONE OF THE LARGEST IN EUROPE
AND IS ONE OF THE DRIVERS OF GDP GROWTH
France 556.875
Germany 548.1
Russia 534.6
United
Kingdom
459.54
Italy 332.505Spain 264.195
Turkey 170.1
Netherlands
130.275
Poland 110.025
Switzerland 108.27
Belgium 97.875
Sweden 94.5
Austria 66.15
Norway 61.155
Others** 60.615
Denmark 60.21
Finland 54.675
Portugal53.595
Greece 50.895
Czech Republic 42.12
Ireland 36.45
Romania 32.535
Hungary 31.86
Slovakia 18.36
Croatia 16.605
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Retail trade turnover growthYoY,% Real personal disposable income growth,%YoY
11. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 10
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
RETAILERS
Development plans
Fashion
20
Children goods
4
Consumer
electronics
1
Sport
goods
7
Footwear
2
Variety
store
3
•At the beginning of the year, retailers announced their growth strategies.
•Below is the summary of official announcements (either company’s press-releases or other open sources).
DATA: Open sources
DEVELOPMENT PLANS NUMBER OF
PLANNED NEW
WHEN WHERE
FAHSION, FOOTWARE, SPORTSWARE
Kari 330 2013 Russia, CIS,
Melon Fashion Group 100 2013 Russia,
Obuv' Rossii 60 2013 Russia
Mango (Mango Kids , Mango 55 2013 Russia
Inditex Group 50 2013 Russia
Jeans Lab, Select 25, Kids Garden,(Tashir 50 2013 Russia
Deseo 50 2013 Russia
Uniqlo 10 2013-2017 Russia
Nike/ Inventive Retail Group 10 2013 Russia
CHILDREN GOODS
ELC (Detskiy Mir) 57 2013 Russia
Guliver 13 2013 Russia, CIS
RESTAURANTS
McDonald’s 150 2013-2015 Russia
KFC 60-70 2013 Russia, CIS
ENTERTAINMENT
DreamWorks Animation/Regions 3 by 2015 Russia
DEVELOPMENT PLANS NUMBER OF
PLANNED NEW
WHEN WHERE
FOOD RETAILERS
X5 Retail Group 900 2013 Russia
Magnit 600 - 800 2013 Russia
Dixy 80 2013 North-West
Victoria (Dixy Group) 16 2013 Moscow
SPAR 40 - 50 2013 - 2016 Moscow
Miratorg 40 2013 North-West
O'key 35 2013 - 2016 Russia
Lenta 30 2013 - 2017 Moscow
Azbuka Vkusa 15 2013 - 2016 North-West
Auchan 10 2013 Russia
Prisma 10 2013 North-West
DIY
Leroy Merlin 15 2013-2018 Central
Metrika 10 2013 Tatarstan
ELECTRONIC
M.Video 35 2013 Russia
Eldorado 14 2013 Russia
Cash&Carry
Metro 7 2013 Russia
12. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 11
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
•In 2012 all the major new international
brands came to Russia mostly with
Russian retail partners. The direct
opining were rare.
•The typical new entrant is a retail
chain with an average size of the shop
from 30 to 300 sq m.
•80% of all brands are coming from
Europe. There are a few American
brands looking for Russian market
(such as Crate&Barrel, Forever 21 and
some other).
• New brands come to Moscow (or
St.Petersburg) initially with expansion
plans for the Russian Regions (mostly in
the “millionniki” cities)
•For most of other Russian cities the
potential is in the existing brands,
which are interested in regional
expansion.
NEW RETAILERS
Fashion, children good and some others
Fashion
20
Children goods
4
Consumer
electronics
1
Multi-Media
1
Restaurants,
cafes
4
Sport
goods
7
Homewear
2
Footwear
2
Variety
store
3
*
* Accessories – 2 stores* Total area 42,035 sq m
13. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 12
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
NEW RETAILERS
New reasons for shopping
EXISTINGOPERATORS
2013
22 3 71 3 22 8
SOON
Supermarket
Consumer
electronics
DIY Fashion Footwear Children Sport Homewear Restaurants,
cafes
Accessories Cosmetics
14. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 13
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
QUALITY RETAIL FORMATS in RUSSIA,
Q1 2013 (BY SQ M)
RETAIL FORMATS
Shopping centers dominate the market
RUSSIA RETAIL FORMATS
SHOPPING CENTRE
MIX-USE BUILDING / COMPLEX
DEPARTMENT STORE
RETAILWAREHOUSE
STREET RETAIL
RETAIL PARK
FASHION OUTLET
Mixed
Use
complex
11.9%
Outlet
centre
0.2%
Shopping
Centre
88.0%
UNDER CONSTRUCTION : BellaVita,
GLA 35,000 sq m
Noginsk / Electrostal / Pavlovsky Posad,
Service Management & Consulting
Solnechny, GLA 37,000 sq m
Saratov, Midland Development
FAHSION OUTLET
2011 2013
2012
RETAIL PARK
OutletVillage Belaya Dacha
(Phase 1), GLA 38, 000 sq m,
Moscow, Hines
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION:
Vnukovo OutletVillage
Phase 1, 16, 584 sq m,
Moscow, Diona
2013
UNDER
CONSTRUCTION:
Fashion House Outlet-
Mall, 28,760 sq m, Moscow,
Fashion House
Development
2013
Total GLA - 14.7 mn sq m in 506 retail stores
15. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 14
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
Moscow
24.0%
St.
Petersburg
14%
Krasnodar
4.3%
Ekaterinburg
4%
Samara
3.5%
Moscow
region
3%
Nizhnyi
Novgorod
3.0%
Omsk
2.6%
Kazan
2.6%
Rostov-
On-Don
2.5%
Other
36.4%
SHOPPING CENTERS, RUSSIA
Construction of shopping centers in Russia is booming
* Outlets are included, retail warehouses are excluded
QUALITY RETAIL STOCK SQ PER ‘000 INHABITANTS,
EOY 2012
QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS BY
REGIONS, EOY 2012 (BY SQ M)
0 200 400 600 800
Moscow
St.Petersburg
Novosibirsk
Ekaterinburg
NizhnyNovgorod
Samara
Omsk
Kazan'
Chelyabinsk
Rostov-on-Don
Ufa
Volgograd
Perm
Krasnoyarsk
Voronezh
Saratov
Krasnodar
Tolyatti
Barnaul
Ulyanovsk
Izhevsk
Vladivostok
Yaroslavl
Irkutsk
Tyumen
Khabarovsk
Orenburg
Novokuznetsk
Kemerovo
Ryazan
Astrakhan'
Penza
NaberegnieChelni
Lipetsk
Tula “Millionic” Cities Cities 500,000 +
16. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 15
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
SHOPPING CENTERS, RUSSIA
Expansion
QUALITY RETIAL SPACE ‘000 SQ M, RUSSIA (including Moscow)
• 5 shopping malls have been delivered in Q1 inVolgograd, Belgorod,
Murmansk,Orel, St. Petersburg.
•85 other are to be delivered in 49 Russian cities by the end of 2013.
NEW SHOPPING CENTERS, 2013
* Moscow projects are on the next slideAquarel’,Volgograd Kontinent, St Petersburgc MegaGrinn, Belgorod
1,828
1,620
1,895
1,561 1,635
1,426
1,872
229
1,600
2,873
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Announced developers plans CW Forecast New construction UTD
LOCATION PROPERTY NAME
RETAIL
GLA, SQ M
DELIVERY
THE LARGEST PROJECTS IN RUSSIA, GLA 30,000+
Volgograd Aquarel' 92,140 Q1 2013
Belgorod Megagreen 53,000 Q1 2013
Murmansk Volna 10,030 Q1 2013
Orel MegaGrinn (2 phase retail) 17,500 Q1 2013
St. Petersburg Kontinent 56,000 Q1 2013
Ufa Planeta 90,000 Q3 2013
Perm SC on Speshilova 75,000 Q4 2013
Ekaterinburg Evropeyskiy (former Prizma) 70,397 Q2 2013
Nizhnyi Novgorod Nebo 69,650 Q4 2013
Bryansk Sayani Park 68,000 Q4 2013
Novokuznetsk City Mall 63,000 Q4 2013
Yaroslavl Aura 62,550 Q4 2013
Irkutsk KomsoMall (former
Kontinental)
57,700 Q4 2013
Ufa M7 Mall 53,355 Q4 2013
St. Petersburg Londom mall (Felicita-
Kollontay (phase 2,3))
47,000 Q4 2013
Krasnoyarsk Ogni 45,000 Q2 2013
St. Petersburg Baltiyskaya zhemchuzhina 45,100 Q2 2013
Ekaterinburg Magnit 44,321 Q3 2013
Sterlitamak Fabri (2 phase) 42,000 Q4 2013
Saratov June 40,600 Q4 2013
Nizhnyi Novgorod Indigo 39,750 Q2 2013
St. Petersburg Mandarin 38,250 Q2 2013
Pavlovsky Posad Bella Vita power center 36,000 Q4 2013
Taganrog Eurasia (Grand city) 35,543 Q3 2013
Kostroma RIO 35,000 Q2 2013
Mytischi Krasny Kit (2 phase) 35,000 Q4 2013
Ufa UfaPlaza / exhibition center
Bashkortostan (1 phase)
31,000 Q4 2013
Novi Urengoi Solnechniy 31,000 Q4 2013
Syktyvkar June (Phase 1) 30,000 Q2 2013
St. Petersburg Monpasie (Industia Group
projects)
30,000 Q4 2013
TOTAL GLA OF SHOPPING CENTERS > 30,000 SQ M1,1.927,216
17. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 16
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
SHOPPING CENTERS – MOSCOW
Structural changes
QUALITY RETAIL, ‘000 SQ M, MOSCOW NEW SHOPPING CENTERS, 2013
•In Q1 there were no new
shopping malls
•The most valuable retail
space delivered in Moscow
in Q1 2013 is the
supporting retail area
(GLA 2,700 sq m) of White
Gardens office complex.
LOCATION PROPERTY NAME
RETAIL
GLA, SQ M
DELIVERY
MOSCOW Projects GLA 10,000 + sq m
RIO (Leninskiy) 57,000 Q3 2013
Shaiba 35,000 Q4 2013
Fashion House Outlet-Mall 28,760 Q2 2013
Otrada (phase 2) 22,020 Q2 2013
Favorit 21,900 Q4 2013
Moskvorechye 19,780 Q2 2013
Raikin Park (Raikin centre of 17,000 Q2 2013
Vnukovo Outlet Village
( h 1)
16,584 Q2 2013
VDNKh SC 15,000 Q2 2013
Brateevo Mall 15,000 Q2 2013
Vostochiy veter 14,000 Q4 2013
295,915
MOSCOW REGION Projects GLA 10,000 + sq m
Reutov Family Mall (Reutov Park) 36,375 Q3 2013
Pavlovsky Posad Bella Vita power center 36,000 Q4 2013
Mytischi Krasny Kit (2 phase) 35,000 Q4 2013
Korolev Gelios 22,500 Q2 2013
Odintsovo Dubki 20,000 Q2 2013
Krasnogorsk Komsomolec 19,160 Q4 2013
Solnechnogorsk Solnechniy 14,200 Q2 2013
Scherbinka Aquarel 11,250 Q2 2013
Lyubertsy Orbita 10,000 Q2 2013
204,485Total GLA
Total GLA
180
360
337
219
379
567
400
197
152
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
New construction UTD Announced developers plans CW Forecast
18. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 17
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
FOOTFALL, Q1 2010=100%
MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTERS
Quarterly monitoring
VACANCY RATE, %
* Cushman&Wakefield Research quarterly monitoring of 9 quality shopping centers (total GLA - 0.5 mn sq m).
These shopping centers have been opened more than one year ago and have the established catchment area.
•In Q1 footfall* of Moscow shopping malls decreased. Although
this is in accordance with seasonal trends (Q1 footfall is always
lower than in Q4) the decrease was more than expected (by
about 10%).
•The shopper conversion rate is close to the average level (which
is around 40% for monitored shopping centers) and in Q1 it was
46.9%.
•The vacancy rate for quality shopping centers* in Moscow remains
low as in Q1 was 1.2%. The increase in vacancy rate (from 0.4% in
Q4 2012 to 1.2 in Q1 2013) is because of typical for the beginning
of the year tenants rotation.
“SUCCESSFUL SHOPPERS”, %
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
40.3% 39.0%38.2%37.1%
44.3%
40.3%39.3%38.5%
34.8%
28.1%
41.2%
44.0%
40.9%
36.9%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1.7% 3.0% 1.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.4% 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 1.2%
Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
19. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 18
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
MOSCOW SHOPPING CENTERS : RENTAL RATES
Rental rates are stable
Q1 20132 prime retail indicator** is 3,800 USD
QUALITY SHOPPING CENTERS RETAIL GALLERY RENTAL RATES*
ANCHORS
<100 100 - 300 300 - 1,200 1,200 - 3,500 3,500-7,000
Food court $1,800-$2,000
Kiosks $5,000-$8,000
Restaurant $600-$1000 $700
Clothing $1,600 $1,200 $700 $400
Shoes $2,200 $1,700 $1,200 $800
White and Brown $500
Supermarket $500-$600
Hypermarket $250-$450
Cinema $250-$320
GLA, SQ M
BUSINESS
RETAIL GALLERY MINI ANCHORS
* US$ per sq m per annum, triple net
** Prime retail indicator—base asking rental rate for the 100-200 sq m gallery unit at the ground floor of the prime shopping centers, US$ per sq m per annum, triple net
20. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 19
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
MOSCOW HIGH STREETS : RENTAL RATES
High streets are becoming more important
HIGH STREET USD / sq m / annum 2013 TREND
1st Tverskaya Yamskaya $1,500 - $3,000 up
Arbat $2,000 - $4,000 up
Garden Ring $1,500 - $3,000 up
Kutuzovsky Prospekt $1,500 - $3,500 up
Kuznetsky Most $2,000 - $4,000 up
Leningradsky Prospekt $1,200 - $2,200 up
Leninsky prospect $1,500 - $2,500 up
Prospect Mira $1,200 - $2,500 up
Novy Arbat $1,200 - $3,000 up
Petrovka $2,500 - $4,500 up
Pyatnitskaya $1,200 - $2,800 up
Tverskaya $3,000 - $6,000 up
Stoleshnikov per. $4,000 - $6,000 up
•In Q1 footfall* of Moscow shopping malls decreased.Although this is in
accordance with seasonal trends (Q1 footfall is always lower than in Q4)
the decrease was more than expected (by about 10%).
•The shopper conversion rate is close to the average level (which is
around 40% for monitored shopping centers) and in Q1 it was 46.9%.
•The vacancy rate for quality shopping centers* in Moscow remains low
as in Q1 was 1.2%.The increase in vacancy rate (from 0.4% in Q4 2012
to 1.2 in Q1 2013) is because of typical for the beginning of the year
tenants rotation.
21. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 20
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
LEASE TERMS
Behind the rent
ITEM COMMENT
LeaseTerms Standard lease terms for gallery tenants are between 3-5 years, break options are rare. For anchor
tenants (including fashion anchors) lease terms are up to 20 -25 years and break option is becoming
popular.
Rental Payment Rents are typically payable monthly in advance.Turnover / percentage rents are increasingly seen in
shopping centres. Rental rates are generally calculated in USD, Euro or commercial units are used. In
less quality shopping centres rental rates are calculated in RUR.
Rent Deposit The rent deposit required in quality shopping centres is typically between 1 – 3 months rent equitant.
Indexation Annual indexation is typical between 3-10% or at a level of USD / EU CPI.The practice of premium /
key money payments is seldom seen in Russia. Rent reviews are rare on the market.
Service Charges Service charge is payable by tenants at either an “open book” basis or more common as a fixed cost.
Utilities payments are charged on consumption.Building insurance is normally charged back to tenant
via service charge.
Other costs VAT 18%
Local property taxes are not payed separately, they are generally included in the service charges.
23. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 22
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
OFFICE MARKET
2013 MOSCOW FORECAST
NEW CONSTRUCTION 700,000 sq m
TAKE-UP 1,900,000 sq m
VACANCY RATE 15.4%
CLASS A AVERAGE RENTAL RATE 820 USD per sq m per year, triple net
FORECAST CHANGED: NEW CONSTRUCTION INCREASED from 500,000 sq m to 700,000 sq m
24. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 23
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
TAKE-UP (’000 sq m)
DEMAND
High turnover
•In total, office take up levels were positive in Q1 with over 450,833 sq m transacted.
•Demand is steady as tenants look to consolidate or renegotiate leases.
•Tenant demand is concentrated in recently finished offices. In Q1 the proportion of pre-leases stood at 1% of gross take up (the
same situation was observed in 2012 when pre-leases were less than 5% from all deals).
80%
83% 75% 86% 86% 79% 80%
92%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
ClassA Class B (B+and B-)
Forecast ClassA Forecast Class B (B+ and B-)
Share of lease deals
25. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 24
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
TAKE-UP (mn sq m) AND NUMBER OF DEALS
DEMAND
High turnover, decreasing net absorption
• The share of big deals (with the rentable area more than 2,000 sq m) was around 50% in the last 6 years.
• But the total number of deals is increasing. More and more small tenants (demanding for less than 500 sq m
office) are closing deals in quality office building.
• Overall, in Q1 there were 797 transactions conducted in 340 quality office buildings.
47% 59% 66% 50% 51% 59% 47% 37%
1.14
1.50
1.74
0.73
1.28
1.94
1.99
0.44
1,075
1,092
1,137
751
1,336
1,731 2,573
797
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013
Take-up < 2,000 sq m (%) Take-up > 2,000 sq m (%)
Number of transactions
26. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 25
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
ABSORPTION vs. NEW CONSTRUCTION (mn sq m)
DEMAND
Absorption
• Absorption is in line with new construction.
* Net absorption—represents the change in the occupied stock within a market during the period.
Calculation: X – Y = Net Absorption.
X = Current stock – current vacancy
Y = Previous stock (same quarter, previous year) – previous vacancy (same quarter, previous year)
1.49
2.17
1.39
0.88
0.65
0.55
0.23
1.35
1.81
0.63
0.74 0.76
0.43
0.25
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 2013
New construction Absorption
27. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 26
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
OFFICE STOCK
New construction
• In total, 14 office buildings were delivered in Q1 with a total rentable area of 259,544 sq m. 84 % of this new office space is
currently available for lease.
• Most new constructions of class A are concentrated in the Central Business District, with most class B in OtherTrading Areas
(OTA).
• We increased the volume of new construction forecast for 2013 from to 700,000 sq m from 520,000 sq m expected earlier. Our
estimates remain relatively conservative.
NEW CONSTRUCTION (’000 SQ M) (%) NEW CONSTRUCTION 1Q 2013 BY SUBAREAS
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Q1 2013
Downtown Class A Downtown Class B Central Class B OTA Class B
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
New construction, A New construction, B (B+ and B-)
Forecast Class A Forecast Class B (B+ and B-)
28. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 27
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
AVAILABILITY
VACANCY RATE
• During Q1 2013, the average vacancy rate in existing quality office buildings in Moscow was stable at average level of 12.14%.
Class A availability was stable and was 16.4% (16.6% in Q4 2012), while Сlass B vacancy rate was 11.13% (11.4% in Q4 2012).
• At present, vacant space exists throughout a third of Moscow’s quality office buildings (in 552 buildings out of 1,780).
4% 4%
12%
22%
21%
16%
14%
18% 18%
17%
3%
4%
6%
11% 11%
9% 10%
13%
14% 15%
Q1: 16.6%
Q1: 11.6%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
Vacancy rate A Vacancy rate B
29. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 28
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
AVERAGE RENTAL RATE BY SUBAREAS 1Q 2013
RENTAL RATE
711
935
1088
731
645
734
796
820
840
900
529
646
807
509
414 444 466 470 500 540
Q1:$850
Q1:$520
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 F2013 F2014 F2015
Class A Class B (B+and B-)
RENTAL RATE
755
477
432
579
498
350
Class B fitted out
Class B shell & core
1104
854
1166
839
570
Downtown
Central
OTA
Class A fitted out
Class A shell & core
• After a stable 2012, positive dynamics were observed in average rental rates in the 1st quarter.
• In Q1, Class A average rent has grown to $850 per sq m (triple net) per annum (from average $790 in 2012 and $820 in Q4 2012).
• Asking rents of more than $1,500 are increasing in occurrence for Class A buildings with internal modifications.
• In Q1 2013 the average Class B rental rate also increased from $490 to $520 per sq m.
• Prime rents remain at US $1,200 per sq m (triple net) per annum for the best office “trophy” premises in the Moscow market.
* Base asking rental rates, USD per sq m per annum, weitghted average for deals closed within the period, triple net
30. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 29
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
RENTAL RATES BY
OFFICE SUBMARKETS
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MOSCOW OFFICE MARKET NET ABSORPTION
31. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 30
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
WAREHOUSE & INDUSTRIAL
2013 FORECAST
NEW CONSTRUCTION IN MOSCOW 1.2 mn sq m
FORECAST UNCHANGED
32. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 31
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
MOSCOW SUPPLY
New construction of quality warehouses (Classes A and B)
Q1 2013
–New construction 138,000 sq m
2013
–Total pipeline 1,200,000 sq m
• The vacancy rate in class A remains stable
at 1% since Q3 2011
• Vacancy rates in qualityW&I properties
will remain stable in the short-term
outlook.
0
200
400
600
800
1 000
1 200
1 400
1 600
1 800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
35. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 34
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
DEMAND STRUCTURE
Moscow region
DEMAND STRUCTURE, MOSCOW REGION
Q2 2012 - Q1 2013
• The majority of transactions in W&I segment are carried out by retail companies, which are also the market
leaders in terms of leased sq m.
TYPES OF TRANSACTIONS BY SIZE, MOSCOW
REGION, ‘000 sq m
0
5
10
15
20
25
Distributor Logistic Other Producer Retailer
Distributor
27%
Logistic
16%
Other
1%
Producer
15%
Retailer
41%
36. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 35
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
DEMAND
Take-up
The amount of leased and purchased
warehouse space in the Moscow region
in Q1 2013 amounted to 145,000 sq m,
volume of transactions in regions amounted
to 51,000 sq m.
The volume of transactions in Q1 2013 was
lower than in 2012, but almost equal to the
average figures of 2008-2012.
According to our forecast the volume of
transactions in Moscow region in 2013 will
be about 1 mn sq m in Moscow region.
The expected volume of regional
transactions is 250,000 - 300,000 sq m.
0,00
200,00
400,00
600,00
800,00
1 000,00
1 200,00
1 400,00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
Moscow Regions Forecast
37. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 36
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
REGIONS
Regional rental rates, USD per sq m per annum, triple net
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
St. Petersburg Ekaterinburg Rostov-On-Don
CITY
Avg base rental
rates,
USD / annum
Avg leased area,
sq m
Moscow 130-140 10,000-15,000
St. Petersburg 125-135 2,000-10,000
Ekaterinburg 110-115 5,000-10,000
Nizhnyi Novgorod 115-120 3,000-5,000
Samara 110-115 3,000-5,000
Kazan 90-100 3,000-5,000
Rostov-On-Don 115-120 3,000-5,000
Krasnodar 110-120 3,000-5,000
Novosibirsk 110-115 2,000-5,000
Ufa 90-100 3,000-5,000
39. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 38
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
MOSCOW REGION
Stable, growing market
MOSCOW REGION AVERAGE INDUSTRIAL
LAND PRICE, mn USD/ha
PRICE FOR INDUSTRIAL LAND IN
MOSCOW REGION by direction
PRICE,
mn USD / ha
Dmitrovskoe shosse A104 0.5-1.5
Yaroslavskoe shosse M8 0.5 - 1.5
Gorkovskoe shosse M7 0.5 - 1.2
Novoryazanskoe shosse M5 0.5-1.2
Kashirskoe shosse M4 0.6 - 1.5
Simferopolskoe shosse M2 0.8 - 1
Kaluzhskoeshosse shosse A101 1-1.5
Kievskoe shosse M3 1-2
Minskoe shosse M1 1-1.5
Novorizhskoe shosse M9 2-4
Leningradskoe shosse M10 1.5-2.5
ROAD
1,87
1,07
1,38
1,4
1,4
1,5
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F
40. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 39
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
MOSCOW REGION
Land prices
DISTANCE FROM MKAD
PRICE, mn USD /
ha
MKAD 2.5 - 3
5 km 1 – 1.5
15 km 0.6 - 0.8
30 km 0.4 - 0.6
50 km 0.3 - 0.5
41. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 40
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
CAPITAL MARKETS
2013 FORECAST
TOTAL VOLUME OF INVESTMENTS US$ 8 bn
FORECAST UNCHANGED
42. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 41
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET
2013 HAS STARTED POLITIVELY FOR THE
ENTIRE PROPERTY MARKET AND FOR
INVESTMENT MARKET AS WELL
THE AVERAGE VOLUME OF INVESTMETNS PER
QUARTER HAS ALMOST DOUBLED SINCE 2007
THE OFFICE AND RETAIL SHARE ACCOUNTS
FOR ~40% EACH
MOSCOW OFFICE AND RETAIL
CAPITALIZATION RATES SHOWED SMALL
DOWNWARDS CORRECTION:
OFFICE 8.50%
RETAIL 9.25%
W&I 11.5%
INVESTMENTSVOLUMES YoY % CHANGE
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Q1'13
CBR refinancing rate Office prime
Shopping center prime W&I Prime
CAPITALIZATION RATES
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
-200%
-100%
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
2008Q1
2008Q2
2008Q3
2008Q4
2009Q1
2009Q2
2009Q3
2009Q4
2010Q1
2010Q2
2010Q3
2010Q4
2011Q1
2011Q2
2011Q3
2011Q4
2012Q1
2012Q2
2012Q3
2012Q4
2013Q1
YoY % change Office % of total Retail % of total
43. CUSHMAN & WAKEFIELD 42
MARKETBEAT
Q1 2013
RECORD VOLUME OF
INVESTMENT IN Q1 2013 (3.4
BILLION USD) WAS REACHED
PRIMARILY DUE TO TWO
LARGE DEALS NEGOTIATED IN
2012.
OUR FORECAST FOR 2013 IS
8 BN US$
THE MARCH CRISIS IN CYPRUS
WILL DEPRESS INVESTMENT
ACTIVITY FOR 1-2 MONTHS.
WE LEAVE OUR 2013 FORECAST
UNALTERED
RUSSIAN INVESTMENT MARKET
Russian Investments split