Using future scenarios is a valuable complement to the strategy and strategic thinking process....these two presentations aim to provide a high-level overview of the approach and potential value to be gained.

1. Strategy Planning and Executing with Future Scenarios Improving decision making and strategic paths to creating the futurePart 2 - A Process Framework 1

2. What do we mean by strategy? 2

3. 3 What do we mean by strategic thinking? Grundy 1994

4. The traditional strategy process cycle... 4 “Most companies have an annual cycle of strategic planning reviews...” - however - “...strategies are rarely made in conference rooms but are more likely to be cooked up informally and often in real time.” McKinsey Quarterly – Tired of Strategic Planning? Henry Mintzberg : The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning

5. Creating a new cycle and approach 5 How do we transform the traditional approach into conversations and dialogue that prepare senior managers for real-time strategy making

6. 6 “The ability to learn faster than your competitors may be your only sustainable competitive advantage.” Arie de Geus

7. So what then is the purpose? The tools of conventional strategic analysis are still required – however – they have another purpose 7 “We do this so that we have prepared minds.” Extracted from “Creating Strategy in an unknowable Universe”. - Eric D. Beinhocker. HBS Working Knowledge series

8. What then is the purpose? 8 “...to provide the context for making real-time decisions and to help deal with all the uncertainties they know will come their way...” “...the point is not predicting the future...but a learning exercise to prepare for a future that was inherently uncertain.” This shift in perspective implies a rethinking and redesign of the strategy process and the outcomes it needs to deliver Extracted from “Creating Strategy in an unknowable Universe”. - Eric D. Beinhocker. HBS Working Knowledge series

10. Create a forum in which decision makers are intensely aware of the key strategic issues – and spend adequate time understanding them

11. Be driven by facts and analysis – not opinions – and based on well researched preparation prior to strategy conversations

12. Have decision makers fully engaged in the preparation of contextual information

13. Use separate decision making forums – to avoid overburdening the strategy process with short term budgets and targets

14. Maximise engagement and participation across the organisation – both top-down and bottoms-up9 build “prepared minds” - challenge assumptions - increase innovativeness Set the context for the design and delivery of a portfolio of initiatives

15. 10 A Process Framework – High Level Assess Context Make it Work Develop , select and design key strategies and priorities Where do we want to be? What Progress are we making Where are we now? What future possibilities do we face? How do we get there?

17. Environmental

18. Economic

19. Social

21. Competitor

22. Technology

23. Strategic partners

25. Portfolios

26. Strengths

27. WeaknessesDecide on Portfolio of Initiatives 11

28. 12 A Process Framework - Overview Macro Analysis Political - Economic - Social - Technological - Regulatory - Environment Destination Vision and Goals IT Portfolios, Landscapes & Lifecycles, Strengths & Weaknesses Future Scenarios Internal Analysis Blended Business & IS Strategy Strategic Resource Allocations Manage Portfolio Mix Trigger events that indicate how future environment is evolving Develop Approve Deliver Manage Execution and Throughput Customers – Competitors – Markets – Strategic Partners Micro Analysis

29. 13

30. 14 If you are interested in exploring or applying this further – then contact me : david.a.carson@diageo.com +44 (0)7803855573