1. TREB Market Update
Toronto Condo Network
Presented By: Jason Mercer, TREB Senior Manager of Market Analysis
April 15, 2011
2. Bank of Canada held the line on rates, but hikes are on the way
Outlook for the Bank of Canada's Target for the
Overnight Lending Rate
7% Bank of Canada Target for the Overnight Rate
6% 3-Month T-Bill
5% 3-Month T-Bill (Forward Rates)
4%
3%
2%
1%
0%
Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
3. The five-year fixed mortgage rate will increase as well
Outlook for the Average Five-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate
10%
9%
8%
7%
6%
5% Still Room for Discounting
ING Direct (April 13/11)
4%
3% Five Year Fixed Rate Mortgage
2% Five Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Forecast
1% Five Year Government of Canada Bond
Five Year GoC Bond (Forward Rates)
0%
Source: Bank of Canada, Toronto Real Estate Board
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
5. Incomes are rising in the GTA
Annual Growth Rate for Average Weekly Earnings
5%
4.7%
4%
4.4%
4.2%
3.6%
3%
3.5%
3.2%
3.0%
3.0%
2%
2.5%
0.8%
2.1%
1.6%
1.3%
1.5%
1%
0%
-1%
-1.0%
-2%
Source: Statistics Canada (Historic); TREB (Forecast)
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
6. Affordability is a key indicator for the direction of price and sales
TREB Affordability Indicator
Share of Average Household Income Used for Mortgage Principal and Interest,
Property Taxes and Utilities on the Averaged Priced GTA Resale Home
55%
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board Data and Calculation; Statistics Canada
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
7. TorontoMLS® sales forecast
TorontoMLS® Sales (Annual)
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
8. TorontoMLS® average selling price forecast
Average TorontoMLS® Selling Price
$500,000
$400,000
$300,000
$200,000
$100,000
$0
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
9. First Quarter 2011 Condo Apartment Statistics – All TREB Districts
Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By TREB Area Condo Apartment Price by Bedroom Type (All Districts)
$400,000
Average Selling Price
$350,000
Median Selling Price
$300,000
1389
$250,000
Central TREB Districts
$200,000
2423 East TREB Districts
$150,000
North TREB Districts
$100,000
519 West TREB Districts
$50,000
$0
657 Bachelor One Bedroom Two Bedroom Three Total
Bedroom
Source: TREB Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Share of Total Condo Apartment Sales By Bedroom Type Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range
0-199,999
7%
200K-299,999
300K-399,999
Selling Price Range
400K-499,999
Bachelor 500K-599,999
One Bedroom 600K-699,999
42%
700K-799,999
49% Two Bedroom
800K-899,999
Three Bedroom 900K-999,999
1,000,000+
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
Number of Sales
Source: TREB Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
10. Share of condo apartment sales varied by district in the first quarter
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
11. Average condo apartment prices varied by district in the first quarter
% Over/Under the Average TREB Condo Apartment Price
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
12. Downtown Core – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary
Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Downtown
Core)
0-199,999
200K-299,999
300K-399,999
Selling Price Range
400K-499,999
500K-599,999
600K-699,999
Downtown Core 700K-799,999
800K-899,999
900K-999,999
1,000,000+
0 200 400 600 800
Number of Sales
Source: TREB
Price By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core) Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Downtown Core )
$1,200,000
Average Selling Price Bachelor 84
$1,000,000 Median Selling Price
One Bedroom 375
$800,000
One Bedroom + 388
$600,000
Two Bedroom 279
$400,000
Two Bedroom + 140
$200,000
Three Bedroom 9
$0
Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total 0 100 200 300 400 500
Source: TREB Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
13. North York City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary
Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (North York City
Centre)
0-199,999
200K-299,999
300K-399,999
Selling Price Range
400K-499,999
500K-599,999
North York City 600K-699,999
700K-799,999
Centre 800K-899,999
900K-999,999
1,000,000+
0 100 200 300
Number of Sales
Source: TREB
Price By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre) Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (North York City Centre)
$500,000
Average Selling Price Bachelor 1
$450,000
$400,000 Median Selling Price
One Bedroom 111
$350,000
$300,000 One Bedroom + 116
$250,000
$200,000 Two Bedroom 162
$150,000
Two Bedroom + 98
$100,000
$50,000 Three Bedroom 35
$0
Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total 0 50 100 150 200
Source: TREB Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
14. Mississauga City Centre – First Quarter Condominium Apartment Summary
Condo. Apartment Sales by Price Range (Mississauga
City Centre)
0-199,999
200K-299,999
300K-399,999
Selling Price Range
400K-499,999
Mississauga 500K-599,999
City Centre 600K-699,999
700K-799,999
800K-899,999
900K-999,999
1,000,000+
0 100 200 300
Number of Sales
Source: TREB
Price By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre) Condo Sales By Bedroom Type (Mississauga City Centre)
$300,000
Average Selling Price Bachelor 0
$250,000 Median Selling Price
One Bedroom 47
$200,000
One Bedroom + 96
$150,000
Two Bedroom 104
$100,000
Two Bedroom + 104
$50,000
Three Bedroom 21
$0
Bach. 1 Bd 1 Bd + 2 Bd 2 Bd + 3 Bd + Total 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Source: TREB Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
15. Rental Market
Number of Units Listed Increases in Rental Listings and Transactions
3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009
3,500 • Following the trend for condominium apartment completions in the
2010 2009
last four months of 2010, the number of rental units listed on the
3,000
TorontoMLS® system increased.
2,500
• While the number of rental units listed increased, so too did the
2,000
number of rental transactions, suggesting that there are a growing
1,500 number of households looking to rent condominium apartments.
1,000 • Average rents remained more or less flat compared to 2009.
500 Because demand kept up with supply, we did not see any
0 widespread downward pressure on rents.
Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre
Source: TREB
Number of Units Rented Average One-Bedroom Rents
3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009 3rd Trimester 2010 vs. 3rd Trimester 2009
2,000 $2,000
2010 2009 2010 2009
$1,600
1,500
$1,200
1,000
$800
500
$400
0 $0
Downtown Core North York City Centre Mississauga City Centre All TREB Downtown Core North York City Mississauga City
Centre Centre
Source: TREB Source: TREB
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011
16. Strong condo completions have resulted in a more balanced market
Condominium Apartment Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio and
Median Price Growth (All Areas)
70% Annual Median Price Change (Right Scale) 25%
Annual Median Price Growth
60% Sales-to-Active Listings Ratio (Left Scale) 20%
Sales-to-Active Listings ratio
50% 15%
40% 10%
30% 5%
20% 0%
10% -5%
0% -10%
Source: Toronto Real Estate Board
Toronto Condo Network April 15, 2011