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Story Line ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Climate as an Exemplar of a Science-Intensive Issue of International Affairs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
First, The Science
Natural Greenhouse Effect ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
There’s Only One Earth, so We Can’t Do a Controlled Experiment – and the Future Hasn’t Happened Yet So Detection, Attribution, and Prediction All Depend on Models
How Do Climate Models Work? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
So What’s the Problem? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Models Must Include Human Contribution in Order to be Able to Explain Past Records of ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
Impacts of Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
Regional Impacts: Developing Countries Bear the Brunt of Climate Change ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This will Change U.S. Geography – Although No one Is Sure Exactly How
Regional Impacts: Europe ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regional Impacts: Africa ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Regional Impacts: Asia ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
 
Possibility of Major Sea Level Rise ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
This Would Happen to Florida if the Antarctic Ice Sheet Melts
Another Outside but Scary Possibility: Changes in the Thermohaline Circulation that Warms Europe
We Don’t Yet Know ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
It’s Also Possible but Unlikely that the Impact of Global Warming will be Minor or Even Beneficial. Would You Like to Take this Risk? Or Would You Prefer to Take Precautions?
 
Turning the Battleship ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
New Technology Will Help ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
The Inter-Governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Attacks on the IPCC Reports ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Kyoto Protocol ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Underlying Ethical Issue : Who Should Pay the Costs of Precautionary Measures? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
US Senate (1998) Refuses (95-0) to Ratify Kyoto  Protocol Unless LDCs Agree to  Conservation Targets. Newly Installed Bush Administration Abandons Kyoto Protocol on the Grounds of  Damage to Economy  ‘ Inadequate Science.’ Little Net Reduction in Emissions Refusal to Try to Improve Kyoto Furiously  Resented by Europeans
Present Situation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Policies for Reducing Emissions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Post-Kyoto Regime Now Being Negotiated
Cap-and-Trade Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Existing Emissions Markets ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Technical Post-Kyoto Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Post-Kyoto Non-Technical Issues ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Bali Action Plan (2008): Basis for Post-Kyoto Regime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
An International Conference in Copenhagen in December Begins to Negotiate Post-Kyoto Regime ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Take-Home Lessons  (STIA) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Take-Home Lessons  (International Relations) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
We Will Return to these Issues When We Discuss Energy.

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GU STIA305 04

  • 1.  
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 6.
  • 7.  
  • 8.  
  • 9.  
  • 10.  
  • 11.  
  • 12.  
  • 13.  
  • 14.  
  • 15. There’s Only One Earth, so We Can’t Do a Controlled Experiment – and the Future Hasn’t Happened Yet So Detection, Attribution, and Prediction All Depend on Models
  • 16.
  • 17.
  • 18.  
  • 19.
  • 20.  
  • 21.  
  • 22.
  • 23.  
  • 24.
  • 25. This will Change U.S. Geography – Although No one Is Sure Exactly How
  • 26.
  • 27.
  • 28.
  • 29.  
  • 30.  
  • 31.  
  • 32.
  • 33. This Would Happen to Florida if the Antarctic Ice Sheet Melts
  • 34. Another Outside but Scary Possibility: Changes in the Thermohaline Circulation that Warms Europe
  • 35.
  • 36. It’s Also Possible but Unlikely that the Impact of Global Warming will be Minor or Even Beneficial. Would You Like to Take this Risk? Or Would You Prefer to Take Precautions?
  • 37.  
  • 38.
  • 39.
  • 40.  
  • 41.  
  • 42.
  • 43.
  • 44.
  • 45.
  • 46. US Senate (1998) Refuses (95-0) to Ratify Kyoto Protocol Unless LDCs Agree to Conservation Targets. Newly Installed Bush Administration Abandons Kyoto Protocol on the Grounds of Damage to Economy ‘ Inadequate Science.’ Little Net Reduction in Emissions Refusal to Try to Improve Kyoto Furiously Resented by Europeans
  • 47.
  • 48.
  • 49. Post-Kyoto Regime Now Being Negotiated
  • 50.
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53.
  • 54.
  • 55.
  • 56.
  • 57.
  • 58. We Will Return to these Issues When We Discuss Energy.

Notas del editor

  1. FAQ 2.1, Figure 2. Summary of the principal components of the radiative forcing of climate change. All these radiative forcings result from one or more factors that affect climate and are associated with human activities or natural processes as discussed in the text. The values represent the forcings in 2005 relative to the start of the industrial era (about 1750). Human activities cause significant changes in long-lived gases, ozone, water vapor, surface albedo, aerosols and contrails. The only increase in natural forcing of any significance between 1750 and 2005 occurred in solar irradiance. Positive forcings lead to warming of climate and negative forcings lead to a cooling. The thin black line attached to each colored bar represents the range of uncertainty for the respective value. (Figure adapted from Figure 2.20 of this report.)