1. Some Reasons
Why Emergencies
Create Challenging
Environments
David Alexander
University College London

2. Complex interactions take place
between cause and effect.

3. Physical Environment Social
(including natural, (including cultural,
built, technological)
Liabilities political, economic
Risk Susceptibility
Attributes
VULNERABILITY
Capabilities
Resistance Resilience
Source: McEntire 2001

4. Organisational Political Natural
systems: systems: systems:
management decisions function
Hazard Vulnerability
Resilience
Social Technical
systems: systems:
behaviour malfunction

5. Vulnerability
Total: life is
generally precarious
Economic: people lack
adequate occupation
Technological/technocratic: due
to the riskiness of technology
Delinquent: caused by
corruption, negligence, etc.
Residual: caused by
lack of modernisation
Newly generated: caused by
changes in circumstances

6. Knowledge
Knowledge of
of hazards
community
and their
vulnerability
impacts
DRR
Knowledge
of coping
Disaster capacity and
Risk resilience
Reduction

7. Uncertainty cannot always be
transformed into probability or fact.

8. Indeterminacy Climate
change
Collateral Cascading
vulnerability effects
Interaction Secondary
between risks disasters
"Fat-tailed" (skewed)
distributions Probability
of impacts

9. THE KNOWN
DETERMINISM
Cause Effect
PROBABILITY
Grey (constrained uncertainty)
area Cause Single, multiple
or cascading effects
PURE UNCERTAINTY
Causal relationship
unknown
THE UNKNOWN

10. Organisation for disaster risk reduction
must be integrated across broad areas
of science and public administration.

11. Disaster Risk Reduction
Resilience
Civil Contingencies Management
Civil Protection
Disaster
Management
Broader Changing
scope and objectives
outcomes of emergency
management

12. Population
(community) Plans,
protection procedures,
protocols
Hazard
forecasting, Major event
monitoring, management
etc.
Human and
material
Incident resources
management

13. Top-down
Evolving Large
strategic technological
situation hazards
Instability Complex
threats hazards
'Na-tech'
Civil Defence (hybrid)
Civil Protection hazards
Enhanced Natural
natural hazards hazards
Evolving Major
climate geophysical
change events
Bottom-up

14. Community disaster planning
Volunteerism Donations
Self-organisation Community
resources
Organisation Resources
Imposed Governmental
organisation resources
Laws, protocols, directives
Standards, norms, guidelines International resources

15. needs to be needs to be shortened
lengthened
impact
warning
and emergency
evacuation management
and rescue repair of
preparation basic
for the isolation services recovery and
next event reconstruction
needs to be
Risk reduction and disaster mitigation strengthened

16. Technical Organisational Social
Hazard Decision
to warn Warning
Scientists Administrators General
Public
Risk
Evaluation communication Protective
action
The warning process

17. Technology creates
a revolution in
disaster response
and resilience,
but it also creates
new vulnerability.

18. Sociocentrism Technocentrism
Technology
as risk
individual mitigation
Cultural filter
family
Research,
peer group
development
organisation
and investment
community
in technology
society
international Technology
as a source
of vulnerability

19. Technology
as a source of
risk reduction
Benign Ceaseless
development
Malignant of technology
Technology as Technology
an inadvertent as a deliberate
source of risk source of risk
Risk
Cultural
management
filter
practices

20. Perception Knowledge
Risk
assessment
Risk Risk
Disaster
management analysis
threat
Risk
Institutional communication Adaptation
learning

21. Recovery from disaster is a political
as much as a technical process.

22. DESTRUCTION OF HOUSING EVACUATION
PRECAUTIONARY SEMI-PERMANENT PERMANENT
pending survey pending repair pending resettlement
SPONTANEOUS SOLUTIONS
INFORMAL SHELTER BUSES AND AUTOMOBILES PUBLIC BUILDINGS
ORGANISED FIRST-AID
TENTS MOBILE TRAILERS HOTELS SPONSORED OUT- MIGRATION
ORGANISED RESETTLEMENT
with temporary urbanisation of the site
PREFAB CONTAINER HOMES PREFAB CHALET-STYLE HOUSING UNITS
ORGANISED RECONSTRUCTION
with permanent reurbanisation of the site
RECONSTRUCTION PLANS, HEARINGS, APPEALS
REDEVELOPMENT NEW DEVELOPMENT

23. Good
Amelioration (functionality
maintained)
Suff- Reco-
ering Transitional very
Earth- Permanent
housing and
quake reconstruction
settlement
Public image Bad
of politicians (functional
National problems)
Political Political impact
Regional Elections
response on reconstruction
Local
A reconstruction model

24. Experience Change and
and theory innovation
Learning
• Unexpected
event
processes
• New Lesson to Lesson
circumstance learned
be learned
• Error
• New
practice
Improved
Recognition and safety
comprehension

25. BENIGN (healthy)
at the service of the people
IDEOLOGY interplay dialectic CULTURE
MALIGN (corrupt)
at the service of vested interests
Justification Development
[spiritual, cultural, political, economic]

26. MAGNITUDE
EVENTS
& FREQUENCY
LAG
SCIENCE KNOWLEDGE
LAG
IMPLEMENTATION
LEGISLATION LAG
CUMULATIVE
COMPLIANCE
LAG

27. Sustainability is at the heart of resilience.

28. SUSTAINABILITY
disaster risk reduction
RISKS
daily: unemployment, poverty, disease, etc.
major disaster: floods, storms, quakes, etc.
emerging risks: pandemics, climate change
resource consumption
stewardship of the environment
economic activities
lifestyles
SUSTAINABILITY

29. Hazards
and risks:
disaster
preparedness Uncertain
future:
Governance:
long-term
democratic Livelihoods:
trends
participation diversity
climate
in decision and security
change
making
capacity
to adapt
RESILIENCE:
managing risks
adapting to change
securing resources

30. Thank you for
your attention!
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