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Is there a Rational Basis for the Extremist View on Climate Change? GR Weber, PhD Consulting Atmospheric Scientist Essen, Germany THE 2008 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE  MARCH 2 - 4, NEW YORK, USA
Main drivers of the climate debate ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Some of the key elements of the extremist view
[object Object],-  Projected warming by 2100 depends to a large extent on assumed socio-economic factors as eg population growth, economic growth, energy use   -  For the presently observed equivalent CO 2  concentration (CO 2  plus other ghg) the forcing is about  75 per cent of a CO 2  doubling ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Is there a significant chance of a temperature increase greater than 3°C by 2100? ,[object Object]
„ Projected average global surface warming at the end of the 21st century is 1.1 – 6.4 °C “ IPCC 1990  IPCC 2001  IPCC 2007  Observed SA90  SRES  SRES  1987 - 2006 Projected Temperature Increase (°C per dec)  .30  .14 - .58  .11 - .64  .15 +/- .05  )4 Greenhouse Forcing (in W m-² dec-¹)  .75  .41 - .91  .41 - .91  .37  )3 CH 4  Concentration (increase in % pa)  .87  - .12 - .78  -.12 - .78  .30  )2 CO 2  Concentration (increase in % pa)  .80  .36 -.96  .36 - .96  .45  )1 )1  From Mauna Loa data )2  Higher in the 1980s, lower since 1990, no increase since 1999  following IPCC, 2007 )3  Higher in the 1980s, lower in the 1990s and 2000s, following Hansen and Sato, 2004; )4  Lower value is radiosonde and satellite data of troposphere 0 - 8 km, higher value surface data
Growth Rates of GHG Forcing (Wm-2 year-1) Source: Hansen und Sato 2004
Is sulphate cooling a realistic explanation of the difference between observed/modelled temperature trends? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Other explanations for differences observed/modelled   ,[object Object],-  Cloud feedback/effects may not be as large as modelled
[object Object],[object Object],Is the observed warming in recent decades entirely due to man-made global warming? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
MSU 2LT Satellite Temperature Trends 1979 - 2006;  Latitudinal Averages
El Niño  -  Winter-SOI  -  La Niña Tropospheric Temperatures 300/1000 in the Northern Hemisphere and  SOI variations 1961 - 2000: Warm El Niños and cool La Niñas Data Source: Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
Intensity of the Polar Vortex and Tropospheric Temperatures 300/1000 in the Mid-Latitudes 40 - 60 °N in Winter (1976 - 2000) Data Source: Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
Data Source: Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Significant increase of extreme weather events (model projections )
Source: Ruth McDonald, 2006
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],22 April 2005 Oslo Met. Institutt Storm tracks and Climate change Lennart Bengtsson Tropical Storms and Climate Change
Source: Ruth McDonald, 2006
[object Object],[object Object],Have extreme events already increased as a result of global warming? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Extreme events (observations):  Tornados and Hurricanes Source: US NOAA
Fraction of Annual Extreme Precipitation from Total (following Karl and Knight, 1998) as a Function of Annual US Historical Climate Network Temperatures Temperature Departure from Long -Term Average (contiguous US)
Source: German Weather Service, Annual Climatological Data Trends of extreme precipitation in  Germany since 1953
Source: German Weather Service, Annual climatological data Annual Average Temperatures vs. Extreme Precipitation in Germany since 1953
JJA precipitation departures in Germany 1900-2002: no long-term trends (in mm) Data Source: Linke und Baur, Meteorologisches Taschenbuch,  and up-dates by Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Is there a significant chance of a large sea-level rise due to significant melting of Greenland and/or Antarctic ice?
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Summary

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Weber conference on Climate Change

  • 1. Is there a Rational Basis for the Extremist View on Climate Change? GR Weber, PhD Consulting Atmospheric Scientist Essen, Germany THE 2008 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON CLIMATE CHANGE MARCH 2 - 4, NEW YORK, USA
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6. „ Projected average global surface warming at the end of the 21st century is 1.1 – 6.4 °C “ IPCC 1990 IPCC 2001 IPCC 2007 Observed SA90 SRES SRES 1987 - 2006 Projected Temperature Increase (°C per dec) .30 .14 - .58 .11 - .64 .15 +/- .05 )4 Greenhouse Forcing (in W m-² dec-¹) .75 .41 - .91 .41 - .91 .37 )3 CH 4 Concentration (increase in % pa) .87 - .12 - .78 -.12 - .78 .30 )2 CO 2 Concentration (increase in % pa) .80 .36 -.96 .36 - .96 .45 )1 )1 From Mauna Loa data )2 Higher in the 1980s, lower since 1990, no increase since 1999 following IPCC, 2007 )3 Higher in the 1980s, lower in the 1990s and 2000s, following Hansen and Sato, 2004; )4 Lower value is radiosonde and satellite data of troposphere 0 - 8 km, higher value surface data
  • 7. Growth Rates of GHG Forcing (Wm-2 year-1) Source: Hansen und Sato 2004
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. MSU 2LT Satellite Temperature Trends 1979 - 2006; Latitudinal Averages
  • 11. El Niño - Winter-SOI - La Niña Tropospheric Temperatures 300/1000 in the Northern Hemisphere and SOI variations 1961 - 2000: Warm El Niños and cool La Niñas Data Source: Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
  • 12. Intensity of the Polar Vortex and Tropospheric Temperatures 300/1000 in the Mid-Latitudes 40 - 60 °N in Winter (1976 - 2000) Data Source: Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
  • 13. Data Source: Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
  • 14.
  • 16.
  • 18.
  • 19. Extreme events (observations): Tornados and Hurricanes Source: US NOAA
  • 20. Fraction of Annual Extreme Precipitation from Total (following Karl and Knight, 1998) as a Function of Annual US Historical Climate Network Temperatures Temperature Departure from Long -Term Average (contiguous US)
  • 21. Source: German Weather Service, Annual Climatological Data Trends of extreme precipitation in Germany since 1953
  • 22. Source: German Weather Service, Annual climatological data Annual Average Temperatures vs. Extreme Precipitation in Germany since 1953
  • 23. JJA precipitation departures in Germany 1900-2002: no long-term trends (in mm) Data Source: Linke und Baur, Meteorologisches Taschenbuch, and up-dates by Met. Inst. Free University of Berlin
  • 24.
  • 25.