1. 1/13/20099:13 PM Pacific
I want to focus on the very short-term to see if I can make Elliott wave sense out of the
dramatic whipsaws today. Here is a 60 minute update showing the detailed substructure
of the 3 waves (A-B-C) down. The ratios are very good for both 5 wave segments.
I account for today’s action with an extended 3rd wave in the C wave. It is not clear
however, if following the 3rd wave is wave 4 and 5, or an expanded flat (a-b-c) in
progress. If it is an expanded flat the most probable c wave extension will go to 882 and
be followed by a 5th wave that could go to 853. More whipsaw action. With the count
revision today and an extension to 882 before turning lower, 853 becomes a probable
turning point if we then break lower.
On the other hand, if we completed 5 waves, then 882 is also a good first target but
should be followed by a retracement then an extension higher. Therefore, taking out 882
is a good indicator that we will go higher in the very short-term.
2. 1/13/20099:13 PM Pacific
If we cannot reach 882 before turning down and taking out the low, then I expect that the
selling will gather steam and 832 (shown as a 1.618 extension) on the chart is the
probable next target down.
Another repeat from last night is the bounce off the Bollinger band and a hammer
reversal bar.
My bias is that we make the turn back up and extend the zigzag, but patience for a clearer
signal (either way) is in order.
TMD/DW
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