1. EU Roles as a Global Security
Actor in the Future
EU Roles as a Global
Security Actor in the
Future
Foresight Security Scenarios
Todor Tagarev, Valeri
13/03/2012
Ratchev, Uwe Nerlich
2. Work in progress
This presentation reflects FOCUS research
work in progress
Do not refer to examples of scenarios and/or
roles made in this presentation!
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4. WP6.2 tasks for CSDM & CESS
1. “Scenarios from politics”: Provide an explanation
why the EU has come up with defining the
‘Petersberg tasks’ up to the Lisbon Treaty
2. “Projection”: Extrapolate current trends, drivers, …
and lessons learned (till 2020-2025)
3. Exploratory foresight: Explore the space of context
scenarios up to 2035 and respective future roles of
the EU as a global security actor
This presentation addresses the third task
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6. Research Process (WP6)
Scoping the
problem space
Context
А1
scenarios and
roles А2 Security rese -
arch scenarios
А3
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8. Develop Context Scenarios (A2.1)
Identify
relevant
factors Identify and
describe
distinct 'states' Assess
probabilities of
distinct 'states' Assess
compatibility
of 'states'
Identify plausible
combinations of
factors Select
representative
combinations Write the texts of
the scenarios
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9. Relevant factors
A. Global context
B. Globalisation and economic growth
C. Security environment
D. Societal Demographics & Migration
E. EU Modalities
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10. Global context
A1. Dominant global competitions
A2. Multiple mutual dependencies
A3. Disruptive potentials
A4. Regional dynamics
A5. Flattening world
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11. Globalisation and economic growth
B1. Accelerated globalisation and growth
B2. Cyclic globalisation and growth
B3. Retarded globalisation and growth
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17. Complexity
6-7 factors
Number of states:
– Distinct
– Mutually exclusive
Exhaustive
Number of combinations: NA*NB*NC*ND*…
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18. Practical considerations
Level of complexity suitable for participatory
foresight
Ns = NA + NB + NC + ND + …
Number of pairs ~ Ns2
Here – 5 factors, 19 states
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19. Context scenarios
0 – “most probable”
2-3 alternative scenarios
Plausible
Span [the more demanding part of] the
problem space
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20. Definition of roles
Dimensions
Possible values along the dimensions
Plausible combinations of values
Selection of distinct combinations, spanning
[potentially] the space of security research
requirements
Plausible explanation for the emergence of a
particular role in certain context
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22. Potential EU roles
“Guarantor of energy supply”
a3b4c1d7e2
(add aspects of the comprehensive approach)
“Cyber role”
“Role in /protecting assets in/ outer space”
“Protect SLOC”
…
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23. In conclusion
Tension between elaborating a framework for
dedicated research and one for soliciting the
opinion of outside experts and potential end
users
Need for a decision making chain that could
be tracked
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24. http://www.focusproject.eu
FOCUS is co-funded by the European
Commission under the 7th Framework
Programme, theme "security", call
FP7-SEC-2010-1, work programme topic 6.3-2
"Fore sighting the contribution of security
research to meet the future EU roles".
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