Presented at Urban Transportation Summit 2010, Kuwait, 11 October 2010

1. Challenges to Mass Transit
Implementation and Methods to
Support Project Viability and Success:
Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities
Richard Di Bona
LLA Consultancy Ltd, Hong Kong
Urban Transportation Summit 2010
Kuwait City, 11 October 2010

2. Contents
1. Introduction: Mass Transit, Rapid
Development
2. Urban form and development density
3. Inter-modal integration: “social need” &
“legacy” networks versus “mode shifting”
4. Uncertainty and forecast perspectives
5. Value-capture opportunities
6. Transport policy: short term constraints and
long term opportunities
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

3. What do we mean by mass transit?
• Commuter rail
• Metro/ MRT/ MTR
• LRT (Light Rail or Light Rapid Transit)
• Monorail
• Tram
• Bus Rapid Transit
Any other terms or forms?
Some issues specific to certain systems (e.g. track
sharing (rail), signal coordination)
But many basic principles are pretty similar
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

4. Examples of Mass Transit
Hong Kong Dubai Tianjin, China
Soure: wikipedia.org Source: wikipedia.org
Bangkok (Skytrain) Bangkok (Subway) Tehran
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

5. Examples of LRT & Monorail
Tuen Mun, Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur (Putra/ Kelana Jaya LRT)
Source: wikipedia.org
Mashhad LRT, Iran Kuala Lumpur Monorail
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

6. What defines “rapid development”?
Once again, many possible definitions.
For example:
• Rapid population growth (people or %)
• Rapid economic growth (demand for travel
and cars escalating)
• Substantial redevelopment: new population
&/or business centres; new satellite towns
• Often all of the above at once!
Any other types?
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

7. Cost versus Capacity
Source: Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA; World Bank
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

8. Urban Form & Development Density
• Determines realistic potential patronage and
requirements for feeder services
• High density, ribbon development is ideal
• Concentrates demand onto corridors, either:
– Naturally (Hong Kong); or,
– Strong advance planning (Curitiba, Brazil)
• Strong planning coordination (Singapore)
• Does your city have an appropriate
institutional framework to plan, co-ordinate,
manage land use-transit interaction?
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

9. High Density Ribbon Development
Above and Right: Hong Kong
Below: Curitiba, Brazil (Curitiba courtesy of Alan Cannell)
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

10. Relationship to City Development
Above and Right: Curitiba, Brazil
Below: Mashhad, Iran
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

11. Urban Form & Development Density
• High density within/ near to mass transit
corridor(s) and especially stations
• Insert mass transit close to (through) existing
high density areas
• Maximises system catchment
• Moving forwards, concentrate on Transit
Oriented Development (“TOD”)
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

12. Urban Form & Development Density
• When “retro-fitting” mass transit, routes may
broadly follow alignments of key highways:
– Abu Dhabi Metro along middle of Island (forthcoming);
– Dubai Metro with Sheikh Zayed Highway; and,
– Hong Kong MTR along Nathan Road (Kowloon) &
Connaught/ Queen’s/ Hennessy Roads (HK Island)
Left & Centre: Hong Kong
Below: Abu Dhabi (source: Abu Dhabi Surface
Transport Master Plan, Abu Dhabi DOT)
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

13. Inter-Modal Integration
Fractal approach:
• Begin with strategic routes/ demand analysis
• Then feeder modes/ routes
• Potential congestion issues (transit & traffic)
• Then work downwards to “short distance”
issues: station interchange and pedestrian –
short distance issues often under-prioritised
Interchange is undesirable relative to point-to-
point journeys, so minimise inconvenience
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

14. Inter-Line Integration/ Rivalry
Where different lines are developed by different
concessionaires, sadly there is a track-record of
concessionaires wrongly believing that they are
in competition with one another!
• Interchange made difficult, both vertically
and/ or horizontally
• Resistance to common ticketing/ fares system
• Undermines strategies to integrate transit
• Retro-fitting interchange is difficult and costly
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

15. Inter-Line Integration/ Rivalry
Examples include:
• Kuala Lumpur (horizontal & vertical):
– Putra/ Kelana Jaya LRT
– Star/ Ampang LRT
– Monorail
• Bangkok (primarily vertical):
– BTS Skytrain
– MRTA Blue Line Subway
• Manila (primarily horizontal):
– LRT lines: walkway between systems, not integrated
Malaysia has now nationalised all 3 lines. Future
lines now predicated upon better interchange
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

16. Inter-Modal Integration: Short Distance
To interchange at KL Sentral Station from Monorail:
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

17. Pedestrian Designs: Tehran & Mashhad
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

18. Pedestrian Designs: KL Monorail
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

19. Climate / Air-Conditioning
Without Air-
Conditioning:
Bangkok Skytrain (left)
KL Monorail (right)
Air-Con at
some/ all
stations:
Bangkok Blue Line
(left)
KL Kelana Jaya LRT
(right)
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

20. Inter-Modal Integration: Phasing
As cities develop and as transport networks are
implemented, especially rapid transit lines:
• Strategic demands will evolve
• Feeder requirements will evolve
• Principal of building up public transport demand:
buses until rapid transit implemented
• Congestion issues may change
• Don’t forget to design interchanges and
pedestrian links for every phase of development
Remember: in rapidly evolving cities, patterns are
prone to change and subject to uncertainty
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

21. Inter-Modal Integration
A possible check-list (not complete):
• How easy to change platforms? Ideally, cross-
platform – try to avoid long walks
• Minimise vertical distances
• How easy to interchange with bus or taxi?
• How good are the buses? Comfort, frequency,
routes, speed, interchange rebates?
• How good are bus waiting areas?
• Pedestrian crossings (safety vs. too many steps)
Which of these can be realistically captured in
transport models?
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

22. Legacy Networks: Social Need vs Mode Shift
Cities may have bus networks tailored to how
the cities used to be structured, not structured
to today’s or tomorrow’s transport demands
• Existing routes amended
• Short-distance add-on routes
• Passengers may have to make numerous
interchanges
• Often characterised by many small operators
and/or government-controlled bureaucratic
operators
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

23. Legacy Networks: Social Need vs Mode Shift
Re-organisation may face political resistance
And can be complex: re-organising all at once:
• Franchises;
• Route structures;
• Modes (e.g. minibus, shared taxi);
• Depot/ terminal/ interchange locations; and,
• Possibly, also regulatory institutions.
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

24. Legacy Networks: Social Need vs Mode Shift
Raises fundamental questions:
• Affordable social need transport; or
• Attractive transport to persuade drivers out of
their cars?
Twin-networks are a theoretical answer, but
hard to implement in practice (competition,
coordination, branding)
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

25. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives
Transport demand forecasts in general are
beset with uncertainty, including:
• Land use/ planning data
• Economic growth
• Population growth
• Vehicle ownership
• Transport policy variables, including tolls and
fares
• Timing of competing & feeder routes
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

26. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives
• In rapidly developing cities all of these
variables are inherently more uncertain
• And in many (most?) cases, there is not a
tradition of robust data collection and
modelling spanning decades (Hong Kong and
Singapore are rare exceptions)
• Remember: transport models are tools to
assist decision making, not substitutes for
evaluation!
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

27. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives
A wide range of scenarios should be evaluated,
in terms of:
• Possible land use, economic, population
growth, etc
• Network configurations (affecting any route
under consideration)
• Transport policy options
Both to aid in deciding on land use, network,
policy and to evaluate demand envelope of
projects
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

28. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives
A spread of probability:
• Central Case (for transport planning)
• Low Case (for financing) – remember ramp up!
• High Case (for station design/ system sizing)
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

29. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives
Central Case
Low Case
Maximum Likely
Demand Model
2015 2020 2025 2030
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

30. Value-Capture Opportunities
• Property development (Hong Kong model)
• Shops in stations (but don’t congest stations)
• Advertising, but perhaps not too much:
– Livery adverts can interfere with branding
– Obtrusive advertising can be unpopular
• Joint ticketing
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

31. Transport Policy
In the long term anything is possible:
• Great opportunities, perhaps
• But consider what is feasible
As, in the short term constraints are the norm:
• Political unacceptability of “stick” measures on
car usage
• Election cycles: can de-rail initiatives
• Resistance to reorganisation
• Takes time to reform institutions
• Land resumption/ compensation/ resettlement
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

32. Transport Policy: Institutions
• Institutions are often a legacy of old
structures and norms
• Unclear, overlapping, conflicting or missing
responsibilities
• Unable to cope with rapid change, to respond
quickly
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

33. Transport Policy: Institutions
• Problems in rapidly developing countries
• Unclear, overlapping, conflicting or missing
responsibilities
• Unable to cope with rapid change, to respond
quickly
• Successful re-organisations have happened,
e.g. Singapore LTA and in recent years many
in the Middle East, e.g. UAE NTA, Dubai RTA,
Abu Dhabi DOT, and Prasarana in Malaysia
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

34. Transport Policy: Key Questions
• How bold must you be with policy to be
sustainable and support rapid transit?
• How bold can you be with policy to be
sustainable and support rapid transit?
• If you cannot be bold enough within the
current environment, then change will be
required before it is too late!
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

35. Concluding Comments
• It could be said that problems in rapidly
developing cities are as per other cities
• But the scale of problems is often far greater
and growing more quickly than in more
stable cities
• However, new land use developments
present the opportunity to “design in” rapid
transit (TOD)
• Rapid development can sometimes better
spur the adoption of supporting policies
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

36. Thank You
Richard Di Bona
Director, LLA Consultancy Ltd (Hong Kong)
and Independent Consultant
richard@lla.com.hk; rfdibona@yahoo.com
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities