Presented at China RailWorld Summit 2011, Beijing, China, 14 January 2011

1. Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks
for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects
捷运项目的体制、規劃和需求風險
Richard Di Bona, LLA Consultancy Ltd, Hong Kong
狄保华, LLA顾问有限公司,香港
5th Annual China RailWorld Summit 2011, Beijing, 14 January 2011
第五届中国轨道世界大会2011,北京, 2011年1月14日

2. Contents目录
1. Introduction: Mass Rapid Transit Forms
介绍: 捷运系统
2. Institutional Buy-In, Co-ordination & Conflict
公共机构购入、合作和冲突
3. Planning & Integration: Do’s, Don’t’s & Risks
计划及整合: 守则及风险
4. Demand Risks
需求风险
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

3. What do we mean by mass transit?
甚么是集体运输?
• Commuter rail
通勤铁路
• Metro/ MRT/ MTR
地下铁道/捷运/地铁
• LRT, Monorail or Tram
轻铁
• Bus Rapid Transit
巴士捷运
• Personal Rapid Transit
个人捷运
Some system-specific issues , but many basic
principles are pretty similar
虽然某些系统有个别问题，但基本原则十分相似
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

4. Examples of Mass Transit
捷运例子
Hong Kong 香港 Dubai杜拜 Tianjin, China 天津
Soure: wikipedia.org Source: wikipedia.org
Bangkok (Skytrain) Bangkok (Subway) Tehran
曼谷(空中列车) 曼谷(地下铁) 伊朗 德黑兰
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

5. Examples of LRT & Monorail
轻铁及单轨例子
Tuen Mun, Hong Kong Kuala Lumpur (Putra/ Kelana Jaya LRT)
香港屯门 吉隆坡(Putra/ Kelana Jaya轻铁)
Source: wikipedia.org
Mashhad LRT, Iran伊朗马什哈德轻铁 Kuala Lumpur Monorail吉隆坡单轨
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

6. Hierarchies & Networks
层次结构及网络
Within larger cities, it is common to have:
常见于大城市:
•Multiple lines for a type of rapid transit
多行类型的捷运
•Multiple types of rapid transit
多种类型的捷运
•Supporting modes & lines – feeders
支持模式及线路-支线:
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

7. Hierarchies & Networks
层次结构及网络
Remember:
请记住:
•One line only serves origins and destinations
directly accessible to it
每条路线只服务直达的起点和目的地
•With a network, the % of trips which can be
served grows rapidly
在一个网络，旅程的百分比可迅速增长
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

8. Cost versus Capacity
成本与容量
捷运
单轨
轻铁
巴士捷运
Source: Montassar DRAIEF-SYSTRA; World Bank
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

9. Institutional Issues
公共机构问题
1. Which bodies could be relevant?
识别相关公共机构
2. What are their strengths and weaknesses?
公共机构的优势和弱点
3. Do institutions collaborate and cooperate or
do they compete?
公共机构应合作或是竞争?
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

10. Examples of Relevant Institutions
相关公共机构例子
Bodies which may be relevant institutions:
相关公共机构:
•City government departments, councils
市政府部门、议会
•Central government
中央政府
•Police
警方
•Transport operators (public, private or partnerships)
交通运输经营者(公营、私营或合伙)
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

11. Relevant Institutions Defined As:
相关公共机构定義:
Any body with responsibility for planning,
implementation, operation of rapid transit or
for enforcement of transport policy or
legislation
所有单位皆有规划、履行、运作捷运或强制
执行交通政策或立法的责任
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

12. Institutional Strengths & Weaknesses
公共机构的优势和弱点
Do institutions collectively possess capabilities
required for existing and new modes?
公共机构是否对现有和新的模式要求拥有能力呢?
•Planning, design & construction
规划、设计及施工
•Operation & maintenance
运行及保养
•Performance monitoring & improvement
表现监测和改善
•Integration with other lines and modes
与其他线路及模式整合
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

13. Institutional Strengths & Weaknesses
公共机构的优势和弱点
Do institutions just have responsibility or do
they also have authority?
公共机构是有责任及权力吗?
Where in-house capabilities weak, can they at
least manage outsourced provision?
内部能力弱，至少他们能管理外包吗?
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

14. Values, Objectives & Priorities
价值观、目标及优先权
• Are common policies, values and objectives
shared between institutions?
公共机构之间有共同的政策、价值观及目标吗?
• Or are there conflicting priorities or even
conflicting objectives?
有优先权或目标的冲突吗?
• If potentially conflicting priorities are identified,
then it is possible to find a collaborative solution,
within the context of overarching civic transport
policy
在总体城市交通政策中，如果潜在冲突的优先事
项确定后，则有可能找到协作的解决方案
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

15. Values, Objectives & Priorities
价值观、目标及优先权
• Metro operators want to maximise their lines’ patronage
地铁运营商希望能大量增加线路乘客
• Bus operators wish to maximise bus patronage
巴士运营商希望能大量增加巴士乘客
• Traffic police wish to minimise traffic congestion
交通警察希望能大量减少交通交通挤塞
• But they should share objective of maximising transport
efficiency, effectiveness and public transport mode share
但他们应有提高运输效率、效益及公共交通共享的共同
目的
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

16. Hierarchy and Values
层次结构和价值观
• A public transport system may include many
modes, such as: rail, metro, bus, walking; even
cycling, taxis & cars (park & ride)
公共交通系统模式包括: 铁路、地铁、巴士、
步行；甚至单车、的士和汽车(停车换乘)
• Essential to see each mode or line in its place
有必要看各模式及线路
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

17. Hierarchy and Values
层次结构和价值观
• Do not forget about the first and last part of a
journey – usually walking
记住旅程的第一和最后的部分 –通常是步行
• Think from the perspective of the passenger
由道路使用者的角度设想
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

18. Example: Bangkok, Thailand
例子:泰国 曼谷
• 14 or 15 agencies involved in rapid transit
14-15不同的机构参与捷运
• Conflicting objectives
目标冲突
• Conflicting loyalties (e.g. political loyalties)
忠心冲突(政治忠心)
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

19. Example: Bangkok, Thailand
例子:泰国 曼谷
• Hard to secure and enforce agreements:
难以保证和执行协议:
– Bus network restructuring (from competing to
feeder routes)
巴士网络重组(接驳路线竞争)
– Other lines seen as competing (vertical and
horizontal segregation at supposed interchanges)
与其他线路竞争 (隔离纵向和横向交汇处)
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

20. Example: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
例子:马来西亚 吉隆坡
• Had similar problems to Bangkok:
与曼谷的问题相似:
– outcome was poor integration of existing LRT lines
导致现有的轻铁线路缺乏整合
• But now reorganised transport administration
under a unified authority (Prasarana)
但现在有一个统一的运输管理机构(Prasarana)
重组
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

21. Example: Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
例子:马来西亚 吉隆坡
• New MRT lines being developed to improve
interchange
新捷运线改善转乘
• National transport policies also being aligned
with pro-public transport objectives
国家运输政策亦赞同公共运输目标
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

22. Planning Issues
规划问题
• Macro-level: Urban form & development density;
socio-economics (population, car ownership)
宏观:
城市形态及发展密度；社会经济因素(人口增长、
汽车拥有)
• Meso-level: Integration between systems; scope for
strategic pedestrian networks
细观: 系统之间的整合；策略性行人网络范围
• Micro-level: Interchange facilities; pedestrian
accessibility
微观: 转乘设施；行人可达性
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

23. Urban Form & Development Density
城市形态及发展密度
• Determines realistic potential patronage and requirements
for feeder services
确定接驳服务实际潜在的乘客和要求
• High density, ribbon development is ideal: demand
concentrates in corridors: Naturally (Hong Kong) or by strong
planning (Singapore, Curitiba)
高密度与带状发展是理想的:走廊的集中需求:自然发生(香
港)或有强力规划推进(新加坡、巴西 库里提巴)
• Use Transit Oriented Development (“TOD”)
公交导向发展
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

24. High Density Ribbon Development
密度高的带状发展
Above and Right: Hong Kong
Below: Curitiba, Brazil (Curitiba courtesy of Alan Cannell)
上图、右图:香港
下图:巴西 库里提巴(Curitiba courtesy of Alan Cannell)
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

25. Relationship to City Development
城市发展的关系
Above and Right: Curitiba, Brazil
Below: Mashhad, Iran
上图、右图:巴西 库里提巴 下图:伊朗 马什哈德
Challenges to Mass Transit Implementation and Methods to Support Project
Viability and Success: Experience in Rapidly Developing Cities

26. Fractal Approach to Integration of Modes
综合运输
• Begin with strategic routes/ demand analysis
由策略路线 /需求分析开始
• Then feeder modes/ routes
接驳方式/路线
• Potential congestion issues (transit & traffic)
潜在的交通挤塞问题
• Then work downwards to “short distance”
issues
然后下调至“短距离”的问题
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

27. Short Distance & Interchange Issues
短距离和转乘问题
• Station interchange and pedestrian aspects
often forgotten or under-prioritised
车站转乘和行人–往往是被忽略或是次考虑
• Interchange is undesirable relative to point-to-
point journeys, so minimise inconvenience
对于点至点的旅程來說，转乘是不受欢迎的，
所以应尽量减少不便
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

28. Inter-Modal Integration: Short Distance
综合运输:短距离
To interchange at KL Sentral Station from Monorail:
在吉隆坡中央火车站转乘单轨铁路:
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

29. Pedestrian Designs: Tehran & Mashhad
行人设计:德黑兰和马什哈德
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

30. Pedestrian Designs: KL Monorail
行人设计:吉隆坡单轨
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

31. Climate / Air-Conditioning
气候 /空调
Without Air-Conditioning:
Bangkok Skytrain (left)
KL Monorail (right)
无空调:
曼谷空中列车(左图)
吉隆坡单轨(右图)
Air-Con:
Bangkok Blue Line (left)
KL Kelana Jaya LRT (right)
部分/所有车站有空调:
曼谷蓝线(左图)
吉隆坡Kelana Jaya
轻铁 (右图)
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

32. Inter-Modal Integration: Phasing
综合运输:阶段
As cities develop and as transport networks are
implemented, especially rapid transit lines:
随着城市发展和交通网络的实施(捷运线路):
•Strategic demands will evolve
逐步形成策略需求
•Feeder requirements will evolve
逐步形成支线要求
•Congestion issues may change
拥塞的问题可能会改变
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

33. Inter-Modal Integration: Phasing
综合运输:阶段
• Principal of building up public transport demand:
buses until rapid transit implemented
主要建设公共交通的需求：巴士直到实施捷运
• Don’t forget to design interchanges and pedestrian
links for every phase of development
在每阶段的发展，不要忘了设计交汇处和行人通道
Remember: in rapidly evolving cities, patterns are
prone to change and subject to uncertainty
请记住：在迅速发展的城市，模式很容易受不确定的
因素影响而改变
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

34. Inter-Modal Integration Check-List
综合运输检查清单
• How easy to change platforms?
Ideally, cross-platform – try to avoid long walks
转月台有多容易?
理想:跨月台-避免远途
• Minimise vertical distances
垂直距离最小化
• How easy to interchange with bus or taxi?
转乘巴士或的士有多方便?
• How good are bus waiting areas?
巴士候车区有多好?
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

35. Inter-Modal Integration Check-List
综合运输检查清单
• How good are the buses? Comfort, frequency,
routes, speed, interchange rebates?
公共汽车有多好?舒适、频率、路线、速度、转乘
折扣?
• Pedestrian crossings (safety vs. too many steps)
行人过路处(安全与过多步伐)
Which of these can be realistically captured in
transport models?
其中哪些可以实质地从运输模式找到呢?
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

36. Legacy Networks
传统网络
Cities may have bus networks tailored to how the cities
used to be structured, not structured to today’s or
tomorrow’s transport demands
城市的巴士网络可能是根据旧有的城市结构定制，而
不是为今天或未来的交通需求而定制
Sometimes justified on “social need” – but this will not
persuade car users out of their car
有些时候是以“社会需要”为道理 -但这不會说服汽车
用户从他们的车走出來
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

37. Legacy Networks: Characteristics
传统网络:特色
• Existing routes amended slightly
稍微修订现有路线的
• Short-distance add-on routes
短距离附加路线
• Passengers have to make numerous interchanges
乘客可能要进行许多转乘
• Often, many small operators and/or government-
controlled bureaucratic operators
往往是带有许多小型经营者和/或政府控制的官僚
机构特色
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

38. Demand Risks 需求风险
Transport demand forecasts in general are
beset with uncertainty, including:
运输需求预测一般是受不确定性困扰，包括:
•Economic growth
经济增长
•Population growth
人口增长
•Vehicle ownership
汽车拥有
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

39. Demand Risks 需求风险
Further risks include:
进一步的风险包括:
•Land use/ planning data (where things grow)
土地利用/规划数据(增长)
•Transport policy variables, including tolls and
fares
多变的运输政策，包括收费及票价
•Timing of competing & feeder routes
时间竞争及接驳路线
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

40. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives
不确定性与预测展望
• In rapidly developing cities all of these variables are
inherently more uncertain
在快速发展的城市，这些可变因素更为不确定
• Robust data collection and modelling over decades is
rare (Hong Kong and Singapore are exceptions)
罕有跨越数十年的健全数据采集和模型
(香港和新加坡是罕见的例外)
• Remember: transport models are tools to assist
decision making, not substitutes for evaluation!
请记住：运输模型是协助决策的工具，不是评价替
代品!
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

41. Uncertainty & Forecast Perspectives
不确定性与预测展望
A wide range of scenarios should be evaluated:
一个广泛的方案，应就以下方面受评价:
•Land use, economic, population growth, etc
土地利用、经济、人口增长等
•Network configuration (affecting any studied route)
网络配置(考虑任何路线的影响)
•Transport policy options
交通政策选择
Both to aid in deciding on land use, network, policy and to
evaluate demand envelope of projects
既要帮助决定土地使用、网络、政策和评估需求的项目
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

42. Spread of Probabilities
概率分布
• Central Case (for transport planning)
中央事例（交通运输规划）
• Low Case (for financing) – remember ramp up!
低事例（融资）-记住斜坡向上!
• High Case (for station design/ system sizing)
高事例（车站设计/系统规模）
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

43. Demand Envelope 需求
Central Case
中央事例
Low Case
低事例
Maximum Likely
Demand Model
最大可能的
需求模式
2015 2020 2025 2030
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

44. Value-Capture Opportunities
价值获得机会
• Property development (Hong Kong model)
物业发展（香港模式）
• Shops in stations (but don’t congest stations)
车站商店（但不会使车站拥挤）
• Advertising, but perhaps not too much:
广告宣传，但不要太多:
– Livery adverts can interfere with branding
制服式的广告会干扰品牌
– Obtrusive advertising can be unpopular
突兀的广告可能不受欢迎
• Joint ticketing
联合售票
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

45. Transport Policy 交通政策
Long term: anything possible: But what is feasible?
长远而言，任何事情都可会发生: 但什么是可行？
Short term constraints:
短期而言是会有限制:
•Unpopularity of restraints (e.g. road pricing)
不受欢迎的限制 (如: 道路使用收費)
• Takes time to reform organisations, overcome
resistance
公共机构改革和克服阻力需要时
•Land resumption/ compensation/ resettlement
收回土地/补偿/安置
Demand forecasts must reflect uncertainty and risk
需求预测必须反映出不确定性和风险
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

46. Concluding Comments: Institutions
总结:公共机构
Institutions should:
公共机构应：
•Share objectives
共享目标
•Collaborate, not compete
合作，而不是竞争
•Have the authority to perform their responsibilities
拥有权力去履行责任
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

47. Concluding Comments: Planning
总结:规划
Planning factors:
规划因素：
• Urban form & development density aligned with
rapid transit
城市形态和发展密度与捷运一致
• Integration not competition between lines and
modes
要融合而不是在路线和模式之间的竞争
• Remember pedestrians
记得道路使用者也是因素之一
• Design-in Transit Oriented Development (TOD)
公交导向发展设计
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

48. Concluding Comments: Demand Risks
总结:需求风险
• Are data available for robust forecasting (e.g.
bus data to plan metro)
数据能否用于健全的预报(如:以巴士数据去
规划地铁)
• Previous forecast performance of existing
models
之前的预测与现有模型的表现
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

49. Concluding Comments: Demand Risks
总结:需求风险
• Multiple forecast cases: financing (low); safe
design (high)
多个预测事例：融资(低) ;安全设计(高)
• Economic and financial risks:
经济和金融风险：
– interest rates, construction, maintenance, power
costs, opening delays
利率、建造、维修、电力成本、延迟开始时间
– Ramp-up following opening (revenue shortfall)
跟随开始使用上升(财政收入不足)
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

50. Concluding Comments: Demand Risks
总结:需求风险
Also to be incorporated into forecasts/ models:
也应纳入预测/模型
•Institutional risks:
制度性风险：
– likelihood of bus restructuring & proper service integration
巴士的重组或服务之间适当整合的可能性的
– Changes in transport policy and enforcement thereof
运输政策的变化及其与执法
•Future build-out of city:
建设未来城市:
– How many “committed” or “proposed” developments will occur?
多少“承诺”或“建议”的发展将发生?
– what will their occupancy levels be?
他们的占用率会是怎样呢？
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

51. Concluding Comments: Risks
总结:风险
Remember, given the pace of growth in China
and elsewhere in East Asia, there is high upside
and downside risk in any forecasts
请记住，鉴于在中国和东亚其他地区的
增长步伐，任何的预测皆有高有利和不利的
风险
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects

52. Thank You
谢谢
Richard Di Bona 狄保华
Director, LLA Consultancy Ltd (Hong Kong)
and Independent Consultant
董事, LLA顾问有限公司(香港)及独立顾问
richard@lla.com.hk; rfdibona@yahoo.com
+852-2831-9191; +86-21-3362-6611
Institutional, Planning and Demand Risks for Urban Mass Rapid Transit Projects