1. Broadband Quality of Service Experience
Chennai, India
November 3 2009

2. Agenda
• Broadband: atwhat cost ?
– Helani Galpaya, LIRNEasia
• Innovation in Regulation: BB QoS monitoring
– Chanuka Wattegama, LIRNEasia
g
• Research Findings
– Prof Timothy Gonzalves TeNeT/IIT‐M
Prof. Timothy Gonzalves, TeNeT/IIT M
• Panel Discussion
– Chair Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala TeNeT/IIT M
Chair: Prof Ashok Jhunjhunwala, TeNeT/IIT‐M
– Operators

3. About LIRNEasia
About LIRNEasia
• “T i
“To improve the lives of the people of the emerging Asia‐
th li f th l f th i Ai
Pacific by facilitating their use of ICTs and related
infrastructures; by catalyzing the reform of laws, policies
f y y g f f p
and regulations to enable those uses through the conduct
of policy‐relevant research, training and advocacy with
emphasis on building in situ expertise
emphasis on building in‐situ expertise”
• A regional ICT policy and regulation think tank
– Scope: Asia (Pacific)
• Research focused, not project implementation (except
pilots)
• C
Current cycle research in: Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India,
t l h i Af h i t B l d h I di
Indonesia, Maldives, Pakistan, Philippines, Sri Lanka,
Thailand (‘SAPTI’)

4. Broadband : at what cost?
Some evidence from emerging Asia
Some evidence from emerging Asia
Helani Galpaya
Chennai, India
November 3 2009

5. Mobiles: high growth through market
mechanisms in Asia
Nepal
Bangladesh
Afghanistan
India
Pakistan
Sri Lanka
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140
CAGR 2003-08 Active SIMs/100 inhab 2008
Source: ITU, data as of end 2008

6. Lowest Total Cost of Ownership in the world in
South Asia
South Asia
Four S Asian countries in less-than-USD 5 TCO club among
less than USD
77 emerging economies (average TCO = USD10.88)

7. Helped by budget telecom model that is
characterized by…
• L ARPU’
Low ARPU’s
– Average ~USD 5 (Bangladesh USD 2 for some operators)
• Mostly (over 80%) prepaid
Mostly (over 80%) prepaid
– low cost of serving (no bills, electronic re‐load, minimal 1‐800
customer care) )
– low customer acquisition cost (~USD 3.5)
– low/no credit risk (pre‐paid and cash)
– Regional negotiations for equipment; managed networks;
• Low(er) Quality necessary feature in early stages
– “
“acceptable” call drop rates x2 of US/EU
bl ” ll d 2 f US/EU
• High margins for operators (decresing)

8. Has given access to basic voice services even to
those at the Bottom of the Pyramid (BOP) in Asia
Used a phone in the last 3
d h i h l 3 monthsth
Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
% of BOP (outer
95% 96% 86% 88% 79% 77 %
sample)
Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka
Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand
% of BOP (outer
82% 66% 65% 77% 38% 72%
sample)
• Sample of over 11,000 BOP (SEC D and E) citizens. Indian sample size over
3,500.
3 500

9. Even to the BOP Rural Areas in India
Even to the BOP Rural Areas in India
Last time respondent made/received a call (% of
BOP teleusers)
100%
90%
80%
70%
2‐3 months ago
60%
1‐2 months ago
50%
About a month ago
40%
2‐3 weeks ago
30% 1‐2 weeks ago
20% In the last one week
10% Yesterday / Today
0%
Urban Rural
India

10. Ownership is less impressive, but high…
Ownership is less impressive but high
Total phone ownership (% of BOP teleusers)
owners
91%
73%
63%
43% 41% 45%
Bangladesh
l d h Pakistan
ki India
di Sri Lanka
Si k Philippines
hili i Thailand
h il d
• Most choose to own a phone (rather than use others’ phones) for
convenience; cost is secondary
convenience; cost is secondary

11. …and growing. Highest growth in India
and growing Highest growth in India
Total BOP phone ownership: 2006 vs 2008 (% of BOP teleusers)
91%
131% 73% 77%
63%
increase 54%
43% 41% 45% 41%
36%
19%
2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008 2006 2008
Bangladesh Pakistan India Sri Lanka Philippines Thailand

12. But in Broadband, India falling far behind OECD
countries
Broadband penetration
itants
30
per 100 inhabi
25
d subscribers p
20
15
xed broadband
10
5
Total fix
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
India United Kingdom United States China Japan Germany

13. And compares only moderately against South
Asian peers
Broadband subscriber per 100 SAARC countries
100,
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Bangladesh Bhutan India Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

14. But even in the absence of 3G/“real‐mobile BB”
speeds, appetite for Mobile BB is high, and growing
Access to BB: fixed vs. mobile
140,000,000
120,000,000
120 000 000
100,000,000
80,000,000
80 000 000
60,000,000
1:19 ratio in favor of mobile
40,000,000
40,000,000
20,000,000
0
June 2008 September 2008 December 2008 March 2009 June 2009
Wireless subscribers capable of Accessing Data services/Internet
Fixed subscribers (all types)
( yp )

15. In the fixed BB world, DSL is dominates
In the fixed BB world DSL is dominates
“Broadband” Technology Market share
Quarter ending June 2009
Cable Modem Ethernet/LAN
7% 4% Fiber Wireless
Leased Line 1%
Other 0% 1%
0%
DSL
87%
Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL Other Cable Modem Leased Line

16. ….and has been growing, leaving other fixed
technologies behind
Technology Trend for Broadband ‐ India
7,000,000
6,000,000
, ,
5,000,000
Subscribers
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
‐
April– June 2008 July– September October– January– March April–June 2009
2008 December 2008
December 2008 2009
Ethernet/Lan Fiber Wireless DSL
Other Cable Modem Leased Line Radio

17. Pre‐conditions for high access and usage of BB
Pre conditions for high access and usage of BB
Coverage Regulatory barriers
exist (e.g. spectrum)
Affordable
Access Technology
Broadband
Growth Services - Reasonable QoSE
(e.g. IPTV, VoIP, e-ticketing, - Some evidence
e-governance etc)t ) provided today
-community access
Low cost Terminals -cheaper computers?
cheaper
-”mobile-like” terminals

18. Prices are generally headed in the right direction:
g y g
down. India has very competitive wholesale pricing
Annual cost in USD for a 2Mbps, 2km DPLC (tail cost)
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
‐
Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives
February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009

19. Retail prices also coming down: e.g. 2MBps
Business connection prices in India dropping
Annual cost in USD, 2Mbps Broadband business connection (unlimited
download)
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
Afghanistan Nepal Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives
February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009

20. Prices are low/reducing on basic residential
packages also. India on par with regional peers
Annual cost, 256kbps Broadband residential connection (unlimited
A l t 256kb B db d id ti l ti ( li it d
download)
8,000
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Afghanistan Nepal Bangladesh Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka Maldives
February 2008 October 2008 February 2009 October 2009

21. Mobile BB: India is not competitive, for obvious
reasons
Price per GB, 1Mbps speed, 1GB data limit mobile internet.
In USD
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Pakistan India Bhutan Sri Lanka
Sources: India, http://www.bsnl.in/service/3G/3G_files/3g.htm / INR 399 for Day/anytime 1GB of usage.
Pakistan (http://www.mobilinkinfinity.com/tariff/ Mobilink Infinity 5GB limit at 1MBps speed. Bhutan
http://www.druknet.bt/btelecom/GPRSEDGE3G.html . Pakistan http://www.mobitel.lk/broadband/postpaid_internet.html

22. But price comparisons need to be
done in relation to what the
consumer gets – i.e. actual
consumer gets i e actual
experienced speed per USD or
p p p
Rupee paid