The role of state in broadband development - Alison Gillwald

The Role of the State in Broadband Development Alison Gillwald Executive Director Research ICT Africa & Adjunct Professor University of Cape Town, Graduate School of Business, Management of Infrastructure Reform and Regulation Programme. DIRSI Young Scholars Programme Lima 18 May 2011

Research ICT Africa ,[object Object],[object Object]

Outline ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

ICTs and MDGs ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Telecom investment & economic growth ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Telecommunications revenue as % of GDP Source: World Bank, IC4D database 2010 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 South Africa 5,17 6,38 7,43 .. .. Senegal 6,84 7,81 8,96 9,75 .. Brazil 3,37 4,15 4,62 4,61 .. China 3,30 3,19 3,06 2,88 .. India 2,28 2,42 2,02 .. .. Kenya 4,34 4,74 4,05 6,05 6,32 Turkey 2,78 2,60 2,27 2,51 2,27 Tunisia 4,08 4,28 4,17 4,20 4,33 Korea, Rep. 4,62 4,67 4,70 4,65 4,72

ITU Broadband Commission Report 2010

Average retail price for basic broadband in Sub-Saharan Africa $366 p/m vs. $40 in Europe (and India) (Mark Williams (2008) Broadband for Africa, infoDev) Per 100 inhabitants Mobile broadband subscriptions 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Africa - 0.1 0.3 1.0 3.0 3.6* Arab States 0.1 0.2 0.8 3.3 6.2 9.7* Asia & Pacific 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.5 5.7 7.1* CIS - - 0.7 1.8 19.5 25.9* Europe 3.9 9.0 17.8 25.9 35.3 46.3* The Americas 0.4 1.4 6.2 10.3 16.4 24.2* Estimated Internet users Africa 2.2 3.0 3.6 5.9 8.8 9.6* Arab States 8.0 10.6 13.8 16.9 20.5 24.9* Asia & Pacific 9.5 10.7 13.6 16.6 19.5 21.9* CIS 10.7 12.9 18.4 25.2 35.7 46.0* Europe 45.9 49.4 54.7 59.0 61.8 65.0* The Americas 36.3 39.2 44.8 46.3 50.4 55.0* Fixed broadband subscriptions Africa - 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2* Arab States 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.2 1.7 2.3* Asia & Pacific 2.2 2.7 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.7* CIS 0.6 1.3 2.3 4.5 6.1 8.7* Europe 10.8 14.6 18.3 20.6 22.2 23.9* The Americas 7.2 9.1 10.9 12.4 13.5 15.5* Source: © INTERNATIONAL TELECOMMUNICATION UNION, 2010. Updated on 21 October 2010.

Source: RIA SA Communications Sector Performance Review 2009 Mobile vs fixed broadband in South Africa

Total Cost of Mobile Ownership

Policy reform outcomes ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Broadband Communications Supply Chain Adapted by author from Williams, 2010

Undersea cable developments Capacity of Undersea Cables Source: Steve Song, Shuttleworth Foundation 2010

Terrestrial backbone challenge - Arising broadband policy questions ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Backbone extension strategies Ownership and management Investment US$ 2010 Ethiopia 10 000km network jointly built by government and Chinese vendor ZTE Incumbent 2billion Cote d ’ Ivoire 2000 km fibre optic network Cote d ’ Ivoire Telecom (incumbent) 90m Kenya Private sector contracted to build 5000km fibre optic network Telkom Kenya (incumbent) 60m 4000km complete Kenya Data Networks (Private) 2009 Altech provided 39.5m South Africa Network has expanded to 12250km (trunk) Infraco Broadband Limited (wholly owned by the state) (Telkom ) 2006/2008: 19m (funding from DPE) 2009/2010: 34.7m 5000km network (trunk & metro) MTN, Neotel and Vodacom (co-build) 300 m 2200km dark fibre laid (metro) Dark Fibre Africa (Private) 300 m Uganda Huawei contracted to rollout 2100 km of fibre in three phase (concession – BOT) Uganda Telecom (incumbent) 106.59m

State sector relations – political economy of reform ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Developmental State Characteristics of success developmental state (East Asian Tigers – Japan, through to Korea, Taiwan, Singapore) Johnson (1989), Castells (1999), Evans (1995), Haggard (2004), Woo Cummings (1999), Schneider (1999) Singh (1999) Makandawire (2000) Khan (2002) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],VS

Telecom Regulatory Environment Efficient Inefficient

Summary of SA telecom market Source: ITU 2010

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Market Concentration Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (using customer market share) Source: Vodacom & MTN Annual Reports, CellC press releases, authors ’ own calculations

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Market structure - Ownership Source: Research ICT Africa 2010 Sector Performance Review

South Africa - state owned broadband company ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Incorporation of power and transport communications networks into new state owned broadband company... ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Network investment and development...

Internet usage in South Africa Source: RIA South African 2007/8 ICT Household and Individual User Survey

Performance Internet | Usage ,[object Object],Households with a working computer and internet connection in Africa Source: RIA ICT Access and Usage Household and Individual Survey 2007-2008 Proportion of household with Internet access at home Source: ITU 2010

[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Performance Broadband | Access Broadband subscribers per 100 inhabitants, in OECD graph 2009

[object Object],Performance Broadband | Price Minimum Subscription Price, USD for OECD countries, October 2009, compared to SA South Africa's lowest (left of bar) & highest (right of bar) broadband prices compared to OECD

Policy and regulatory issues arising ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

New broadband policy – October 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

New broadband policy - 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

Key factors for success ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

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References ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]

The role of state in broadband development - Alison Gillwald

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The role of state in broadband development - Alison Gillwald