5. Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities,
Mega Regions and Mega Corridors
MEGA
MEGA CITY MEGA REGIONS CORRIDORS
City With A Minimum Cities Combining With The Corridors
Population Of 5 Million Suburbs To Form Connecting Two Major
Regions. (Population Cities or Mega Regions
EXAMPLE: Greater
over 10 Million)
London EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-
EXAMPLE: Shenzhen-Guangzhou
Johannesburg and in China (Population
Pretoria (forming “Jo- 120 Million)
Toria”)
5
6. Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts
Smart Cities Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility
Smart Diamond to define Smart city
‘S”
Governance
‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business
‘S’ City
Planning ‘S’ Buildings
Source: Frost & Sullivan
These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’
‘S’ Mobility Mobility of the future
‘S’
Energy
‘S’ ICT
‘S’ Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure
‘S‘ City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion
Charging
‘S’ Information Communication & Technology Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet
Technologies
Legend: City’s Infrastructure City’s User community City’s Green Ecology
6
7. Over 40 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2020
Amsterdam
London
Boulder
Tianjin
GIFT
San Francisco Göteborg
Stockholm
Reykjavik Oslo Hammarby Sjöstad Songdo
Montreal Clonburris Copenhagen
Vancouver
St Davids
Seattle Toronto Freiburg
Portland
Paris Dongtan
Treasure Island Barcelona Changsha
Destiny
Coyote Springs Meixi Lake
Khajuraho
Arcosanti Babcock Ranch
Pune Singapore City
Bogota Kochi
Waitakere, N.Z.
Curitiba
Cape Town
Moreland, Australia
Masdar
Cities built from scratch
Existing eco cities
Existing eco megacities
7
8. “Smart” Market Opportunity : Convergence of Technology Will Lead to
Convergence of Competition
Energy/Infrastructure
Players
• T&D Technology
• Power Electronics
• Renewable Energy
• Integrated Distribution Management
• Substation Automation
• AMI-Enabled Metering
• Etc.
• IP Networks
• Digital Technology
• Analysis Software • Building Automation
• Wireless Communication • Demand-Side Management
• Technology Integration • Connectivity of devices
• Network Security • Monitoring and Sensing
• Etc. • Smart Grid Integration
• Etc.
IT Players Automation/Building
Control Players
Source: Frost & Sullivan.
8
10. E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be
Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020
Total 30 million – 2 Wheelers Total 10 Million – 4 Wheelers
(2020) (2020)
Sanyo Enacle XM 3000 Electric Moped The GEM Peapod The Smith Newton
10
11. Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter
New Fields
Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel
Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs
and Government
Integrator
Utilities OEMs
(e.g Better Place)
Key Key
Responsibility: Responsibility:
Development of Promotion of EV
Charging Supplies use
Infrastructure Development of
infrastructure to
performing
distribute their
batteries
energy
Infrastructure
Charging supplier System/Battery
Station Government
Manufacturers
Manufacturers
11
12. Example of Products/Services Portfolio That Can be Offered by an
Integrator in the E-Mobility Market
Telematics &
Charging
Batteries E-Mobility Vehicles Electricity other value
Stations
Services
added services
• Manufacturing & • Battery Leasing • Energy • Subscription • Data Aggregator (
Sales Model Subscription based Energy working with other
Packages service Scheme partners)
• Installation & • Refurbishing
Maintenance • Extended E-
• Battery
mobility solution
Possible Revenue
• Recycling • Load Management management
• Charge Payment e.g. vehicle sharing
services
Program /
Subscription based • Battery 2nd life
Streams
services • investment in • Advanced booking
• Offering After-
renewable energy of charging stations
• Battery Sales services –
• Revenues from such as wind farms
Swapping and gain carbon
value added
services credits
• V2V and V2G
• Extend to other • Market green Communication
E-mobility solutions such as • Premium revenues
• Premium revenues solutions Solar panels to E-
via Renewable via Peak Power Vs
Mobility client base Off Peak Charging • Added value
Energy Vs Non
service (POIs,
Renewable Energy
• Premium revenues Diagnostics, etc)
• Premium revenues • Battery via Renewable
Integration • Recycling and
via Peak Power Vs Energy Vs Non
Refurbishing
Off Peak Charging Renewable Energy
• Level 1 Vs Level 2
Vs Level 3 Charging
Source: Frost & Sullivan
12
14. World Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Gen Y Population -
Around 61% from Asia Alone
2010 2 World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020 2020
1.8 Around 37% of Gen Y 7.55 Billion
Population Will Live in India
1.6 and China Alone 1.2
6.83 Billion
0.47
1.4
0.16
Population in Billion
0.09
1.2 2.1
0.19
0.07
1 0.47 0.57
0.33
0.8
0.63 0.22
2.56
0.12
0.6
0.37 0.44
0.23
0.21 0.51
0.4
0.07
0.13 0.26
0.22
0.2 0.44
0.36 0.33
1.69
0.11
0.22
0.14 0.07 0.13
0
Africa Rest of Asia Latin America, North America Europe India China
Caribbean and
Oceania
65 Years and Above 35-64 15-34 0-14
Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34
Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations
Years
14
17. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest
and Lifestyle
Personalization Techno Savvy Civic and Demanding and
and and Connected Environmentally Impatient – “Fast
Individualization 24 X 7 Friendly and the Furious”
Gaming Gizmos
Personalized Search and Instant Text Messaging
Eco- Transport
News
Smart Phones
Social Networking Profiles
Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags
Instead of Plastic) Instant Chat
Facebook-on-the Move
Personalized Products
Paperless Banking Speed Oriented
Gaming (Car Racing)
Microblogs
17
19. Cloud Computing
A pool of compute, memory and i/o resources, applications or operating environments with
seemingly infinite scalability, delivered as a service over a network, be it private or public
Characteristics Service Types Deployment Models
On Demand, Self- PUBLIC
Service Public
Enterprise Cloud
Software as a Service
Pay As You Use, PRIVATE
Metered
Consumption Private
Enterprise
Cloud
Rapid Elasticity, COMMUNITY
Scale Up/Down Platform as a Service
Enterprise Enterprise
1 2
Community
Shared Pools, Cloud
Illusion of Infinite Enterprise
Resources 3
HYBRID
Broad Network Infrastructure as a Service Private Public
Access using Enterprise Cloud
Cloud
Standard Internet
Protocols
19
20. New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched
Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications
By 2020, there will be approximately
927 Satellites (Communication – 405; GNSS Enabled Applications:
Earth Observation – 151; Navigation
•Navigation (Civil, Military)
– 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D
75) •Broadband Internet and Wireless
Network
•GNSS based medical monitoring
and drug delivery system
•Automated guidance of
machines, real-time structure
monitoring, logistics and site
management
Galileo - intended to Commercial market will
provide more precise be driven by
measurements than GPS broadcast; Mobile
or GLONASS Satellite Services
China developing (MSS); voice and data
Beidou applications, bundling
IPTV
Used for Military
Communication
Applications, air-
traffic control,
Automobile Navigation and Intelligent automated aircraft
Traffic Control System Applications landing, etc
20
21. World War 3: With Advancement in Technology, Information Warfare
to be the Next Domain of Conflict
Space
Photographic Satellites, GPS, Communications, Ballistic Missile
Defence, Signals, Astronauts
Air
ISR Platforms, Combat Aircraft, Transport, Helicopters, Maritime
Surveillance, Communications, Airmen
Naval Land
Combat Platforms, Combat Vehicles, Transport,
Communications, ISR, Transport, Communications, Soldiers
Sailors
Information Environment
Physical, Cognitive, Informational Dimensions
21
25. Global High Speed Rail: Existing, Under Construction and Planned
50,148 km
25000
14,213 km By 2020,
20000 construction of South
America
more than 35,000
Middle East
15000
9524 3979 km of new track & Africa
has been estimated North
Asia America
6326
Pacific 10000
4015 Asia Pacific
5000 Europe
6515 7698 2417 4084
Europe 5494
2200 1310
0
2010 Europe Asia Pacific North America Middle East & Africa South America
2020
In Operation Under Construction Planned
Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan
• More than 60 per cent of new High Speed development is likely to take place in Europe and
Asia.
• Though North America has a vision to build more than 27,000 km of High Speed Rail network,
only about 5,500 km of network will be true High Speed (more than 250 kmph) by 2020.
DRAFT VERSION 25
27. If Current Trends Hold, By 2050 Health Care Spending Will Almost Double
Claiming 20% – 30% Of GDP For Some Economies
Private Per Capita Spending (2007) Public Per Capita Spending (2007)
$7,000
Spending as % of GDP (2007) Estimated Spending as % of GDP in 2050
30.0%
$6,000 Unsustainable
Levels!!! 25.0%
$5,000
$3,517
20.0%
$4,000 $717
$1,684 15.0%
$3,000 $854 $680
$914 $989 $760 $494
$1,018 $449
$1,165 $352
$593 $431 10.0%
$2,000 $514
$3,647 $646
$2,884 $2,693
$2,493 $2,665 $2,451 $2,527 $2,614 $2,469
$2,337 $2,371 5.0%
$1,000 $2,110 $1,927 $1,938 $1,927 $1,829 $1,609
$0 0.0%
In almost all countries worldwide, per capita healthcare spending is rising faster than per capita income.
No country can spend an ever-rising share of its output on health care, indefinitely. Spending growth must
eventually fall in line with growth in per capita income.
27
28. Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending – Away From Treating and
Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring
Healthcare Spending by Type of Activity
100%
Monitor, 10% Monitor, 12%
90% Monitor, 16%
80%
70%
Treat, 35%
60% Treat, 60%
Treat, 70%
50%
40%
Diagnose, 27%
30%
20% Diagnose, 19%
Diagnose, 15% Predict, 22%
10%
Predict, 5% Predict, 9%
0%
2007 2012 2025
28
29. #8 Connected Devices : 80 bn + by 2020
The Home Network Mobility on steroids Internet of things
‘S’ Citizen ‘S’ Business
‘S’ City
Planning ‘S’ Buildings
‘S’ Mobility ‘S’
Energy
• 8-10 Devices per home • 5-6 Devices per individual • 500 per sq km
• Universal Remote • Touch as the default input • Smart cities
mechanism
6 bn 30 bn 44 bn
29
30. #9 New Business Models
1. Pay as you go – Utilitarian, On Demand
2. Co-creation of value;
3. N=1, R=G
30
31. #10 Span of Influence increasing rapidly
Time to reach an audience of 50 million
Radio : 38 years
TV : 13 years
Internet : 4 years
iPod : 3 years
Facebook: 2 years
500 Million+ Facebook users
2 Billion+ photos on Facebook per month
1 Billion+ tweets on Twitter
100 Million+ videos on Youtube
200 Million+ blogs
13 Million+ Wikipedia articles
31
35. Key Strategic Conclusions
1. Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests “synergetic”
opportunities between them
2. It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the
elements of the value chain which have most profitability
3. All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering
scalable opportunities
4. These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play
at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade
5. Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their
organisation structure to best exploit the opportunity
35
36. How To Take Mega Trends from Information to Strategy
Implementation?
S1
Identify and Select Top Mega Trends through
Macro-Economic Analysis, Interviewing and
Brainstorming Sessions
S2
Build Scenario of these Unique Mega Trends
S3
Analyse the Impact of the Scenario Developed in
Step 2 on Industry (e.g. Personal Mobility then
Automotive)
S4 Analyse Impact on Product and Technology
Planning and Generate Suggestions for Design and
Development
36
