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strategy+business



issue 66 SPring 2012




Big Pharma’s
Uncertain Future
The business model that drove the major drugmakers’
success isn’t working anymore. The survivors will be those that
make smart strategic bets supported by winning capabilities.



by alex KanDybin

anD veSSela genova




reprint 00095
BIG PHARMA’S
                     UNCERTAIN
                     FUTURE
feature healthcare




                     by Alex Kandybin and Vessela Genova


                          The business model that drove the major
                             drugmakers’ success isn’t working anymore.
                      The survivors will be those that make smart
                        strategic bets supported by winning capabilities.


    1

                     In the pharmaceutical industry, nothing is quite as        (including Lipitor, Zyprexa, Plavix, and Seroquel) will
                     exciting as a new molecule in the pipeline — especially    be coming off patent in the next few years, opening the
                     one that has a chance of solving some major human          way to generics and eroding a major source of the in-
                     health problem. In the last few decades, pharma com-       dustry’s profits. To be sure, there is still plenty of room
                     panies have consistently developed and launched new        for improvement in the medications people take, and no
                     proprietary drugs, bringing hope to sick or at-risk pa-    shortage of human suffering to alleviate. But it is doubt-
                     tients, and providing enviable financial returns for the   ful whether big pharmaceutical companies will be able
                     companies’ shareholders. Indeed, global pharmaceutical     to pursue these goals within the old model of developing
                                                                                                                                              Illustration by Oliver Burston




                     companies have been built around the idea of discover-     exclusive new pills that they can sell under patent protec-
                     ing blockbuster drugs that solve medical problems com-     tion. For one thing, pharma companies in the past were
                     mon to tens of millions of people. They have supported     able to develop drugs for health problems that had never
                     that approach with huge investments in their innovation    before been addressed. When anti-cholesterol drugs were
                     programs and marketing and sales operations.               first launched, for example, they created entirely new,
                          But the era of the blockbuster drug is nearing an     multibillion-dollar markets. Today, in contrast, few such
                     end. In the U.S. alone, branded pharmaceuticals ac-        unaddressed categories remain, meaning most newly de-
                     counting for some US$120 billion in annual revenues        veloped drugs will be competing with existing ones.
feature healthcare
                     2
Alex Kandybin                    Vessela Genova                    Also contributing to this
                     alex.kandybin@booz.com           vessela.genova@booz.com           article was consulting editor
                     is a partner with Booz &         is a senior associate with Booz   Robert Hertzberg.
                     Company in New York who          & Company in Los Angeles.
                     works with clients in the        She works with clients in the
                     consumer healthcare and life     consumer healthcare, life
                     sciences industries to develop   sciences, and media industries
                     strategies and capabilities      to help them develop
                     that help them achieve           capabilities-driven strategies
                     competitive advantage.           to grow competitively and enter
                                                      global markets.




                          In addition, the pharma companies are feeling                      The next decade for the pharmaceutical industry is
                     pressure from every direction — from regulators setting            shaping up to be not only a period in which the leading
                     the rules for drug effectiveness and safety, from man-             companies don’t know what’s going to happen, but one
feature healthcare




                     aged care organizations and employers pushing back on              in which they can’t know what’s going to happen, be-
                     prescription drug costs and reimbursement, from com-               cause so many of the conditions under which they oper-
                     petitors coming to market with alternative brands or               ate are in such an unusual state of flux.
                     generics, and from disgruntled shareholders. Internally,                None of the new businesses into which the phar-
                     the number of molecules in pharmaceutical company                  maceutical companies are expanding have the same
                     pipelines is shrinking, and the risk/reward ratio for re-          margins as branded drugs, and that raises doubts about
                     search and development outlays is worsening. Overall,              whether pharmaceutical companies will be able to
                     these trends have resulted in lower revenue, reduced               maintain their past levels of profitability. (See Exhibit
                     profitability, and declining P/E valuation ratios for most         1.) “Some will, some won’t, because there won’t be as
                     major pharmaceutical companies.                                    big a proprietary market to go around in the near term,”
                          The question, however, is more fundamental than               says Miles D. White, the chief executive of Abbott Lab-
                     what pharma companies will do for an encore in the
                     post-blockbuster era: The question is whether they can
                     survive at all in their present form. There is no consen-          Exhibit 1: Less Attractive Margins
 56
  3
                     sus about what comes next, as evidenced by the different           Pharmaceutical firms looking to move into adjacent businesses will need
                                                                                        to accept lower levels of profitability.
                     strategic moves the major companies have made with
                     mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures in recent years.           Average Operating Margin
                     A few have chosen to double down on branded phar-
                                                                                                  Pharmaceuticals                                                     29%
                     maceuticals, betting that the bad times won’t last and
                     that by adding new therapeutic areas or becoming more                                Biologics                                             25%
                     adept at using technology they can continue to gener-
                                                                                               Devices/Diagnostics                                        22%
                     ate large profits from formulations they own exclusively.
                     Many others are looking elsewhere, and have expanded                Consumer Healthcare/OTC                                        20%

                     into such sectors as diagnostics, consumer health, gener-                       Animal Health                                17%
                     ic drugs, biosimilars, nutrition, and wellness.
                                                                                                          Generics                       12%
                          “I don’t think there’s been a time in recent history
                                                                                                                                                                            strategy+business issue 66




                     where the industry has had a more divergent approach                                 Services                8%

                     to the future,” says Cavan Redmond, group president
                                                                                                 Drug Wholesalers       2%
                     of corporate strategy at Pfizer Inc. “It means that we’ll
                     have different ways of dealing with healthcare, especial-
                                                                                        Source: “Mapping the Healthcare Landscape: Bringing Pharmaceuticals into Focus,”
                     ly on the pharmaceutical side, and less homogeneity.”              Datamonitor, November 2009
The question is more fundamental than what
                  pharmaceutical companies will do
             for an encore. It’s whether they can survive
                     at all in their present form.




oratories, which is in the process of separating into two                        Multiple Unknowns
companies, one focused on diagnostics and medical de-                            Just how uncertain a time has Big Pharma entered?
vices, the other on prescription drugs.                                          Consider a balloon in different weather conditions.




                                                                                                                                                   features title of the article
                                                                                                                                                   feature healthcare
      To survive — and perhaps thrive — in this un-                              Release the balloon into a light sea breeze, and it may
predictable future, pharmaceutical companies need to                             bounce a little from side to side, but it will inevitably
make some bets about the way the future of the indus-                            and predictably fly in the direction of the wind. Repeat
try will unfold, and design their diversification strate-                        this experiment and the results will be almost identical
gies to position them for success in one or more of the                          to those of the first try. This is an example of a deter-
scenarios they envision. We think these need to be stra-                         ministic process, meaning you can predict the balloon’s
tegic bets, which mesh with the companies’ key capa-                             behavior and ultimate location with a high degree of ac-
bilities systems — the things each company does with                             curacy by knowing its aerodynamics and the speed and
distinction that provide its competitive advantage. We                           direction of the wind.
recommend that companies begin that journey with a                                    Now try to predict what will happen with a balloon
five-step process for identifying the best opportunities.                        in an unstable weather condition like a tornado, with


Exhibit 2: Pharma Acquisitions, 2004–10
                                                                                                                                                   57
                                                                                                                                                    4
Overall, the acquisition activity of the 10 largest pharmaceutical firms in recent years seems chaotic.



                                 Number of Acquisitions                   Value of Acquisitions               Average Size of Acquisition
                                                                          (US$ Millions)                      (US$ Millions)
             Pharmaceuticals                                39                                      339,442                                8,704

                     Biologics                        31                     33,620                                 1,085

                     Generics             11                                     55,210                                         5,019

    Consumer Healthcare/OTC               10                                       76,629                                               7,663

                      Devices             10                                10,493                                  1,049

                   Diagnostics        3                                    4,367                                     1,456

                      Services     2                                       140                                 70

                Animal Health     1                                        4,000                                             4,000

                   Biosimilars    1                                        350                                 350

           Nutrition/Wellness     1                                        320                                 320


Source: Capital IQ Database
Most industries go through periods of
                                       both deterministic and stochastic
                                  development.... The pharmaceutical industry
                                        is entering a stochastic period.




                     Exhibit 3: Pharma Divestitures, 2004–10
                     The 10 largest pharmaceutical companies have also been selectively divesting businesses as they reposition themselves for
                     changing markets.
feature healthcare




                                                      Number of Divestitures                 Value of Divestitures                    Average Size of Divestiture
                                                                                             (US$ Millions)                           (US$ Millions)
                                  Pharmaceuticals                                9                    3,025                              336

                         Consumer Healthcare/OTC                         5                              3,614                             723

                                        Diagnostics                  4                         713                                      178

                                Nutrition/Wellness               3                                              8,245                                  2,748

                                     Animal Health           2                                                          13,250                                 6,625

                                           Services          2                                       2,300                                     1,150

                                           Devices           2                                  1,128                                     564

                                          Generics           2                                 485                                      243

                                          Biologics      1                                     590                                        590


                     Source: Capital IQ Database

 58
  5

                     the wind gusting in different directions. Even if you let                   It became impossible to predict where the computer
                     two balloons go at the same time, they will end up in                       industry was going, and in the early 1980s the incum-
                     totally different places. You can’t predict the outcome                     bent players’ strategies diverged significantly. Some bet
                     of this experiment any more than you could predict                          that the old mainframe paradigm would prevail; others
                     that Dorothy and Toto would end up in a brilliantly                         expanded to new product and service areas. The out-
                     colorful place called Oz. A balloon in a tornado is an                      come was stark: Many companies didn’t survive (case
                     example of a stochastic process — the outcome is inher-                     in point: Cray), and others (such as IBM) survived only
                     ently unpredictable.                                                        by making significant changes to their business models
                          Most industries go through periods of both deter-                      and product portfolios.
                     ministic and stochastic development. For instance, the                           After years of steady and predictable growth, the
                     computer industry in the 1960s and 1970s had all the                        pharmaceutical industry is entering a stochastic period
                                                                                                                                                                       strategy+business issue 66




                     characteristics of a deterministic process. IBM, Bur-                       of its own. That pharmaceutical companies have diver-
                     roughs, Cray, and others pursued similar strategies,                        gent views of how the future will evolve is evident in
                     selling giant data processing machines known as main-                       what they’ve done in the area of mergers and acquisi-
                     frames. The personal computer changed the dynamics                          tions. On an aggregate basis, M&A activity involving
                     of the industry, triggering a turbulent stochastic period.                  the 10 largest pharmaceutical companies looks pretty
chaotic — no clear pattern is visible in their behavior       Exhibit 4: Investment Focus Areas, 2004–10
from 2004 through 2010. (See Exhibits 2 and 3.) Capi-         When M&A is viewed on a per-company basis, the pharmaceutical
                                                              companies’ strategies become more clear.
tal transactions in animal health, consumer health, de-




                                                                                                                                                             features title of the article
                                                                                                                                                             feature healthcare
vices, generic drugs, and branded pharmaceuticals all
accounted for tens of billions of dollars in acquisitions,


                                                                             Co
                                                                                ns
                                                                                  um
divestitures, or both. The one exception is biologics, a




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                                                                                                                                                         s
     When you look at M&A activity on an individual                        Sanofi

company basis, however, the pharma companies’ behav-                       Pfizer

ior looks considerably less chaotic. Most of them have                     Abbott

used deals to narrow their focus to two or three areas           GlaxoSmithKline
besides core pharmaceuticals and biologics. (See Exhibit                 Novartis
4.) The other focuses they’ve selected are the result of an   Johnson & Johnson
assessment by each company of where it might succeed,
                                                                           Roche
and the amount of diversification it can support.
                                                                     AstraZeneca

                                                                           Merck                                                                             59
                                                                                                                                                              6
Value of Strategic Bets
                                                                            Bayer
The diversification moves that pharmaceutical compa-
nies have made may look like they meet our definition         Source: Capital IQ Database, Booz & Company analysis
of strategic bets: Bets designed to position the company
for success in one or more specific business scenarios,
that are either aligned with the company’s existing key       by some linkage” with other units, he says.
capabilities systems or that include a plan for developing         This is still the common mind-set in the industry,
or acquiring other capabilities that will be needed for       and the underlying assumption — that business units
success. Instead, in many cases, pharma companies seem        should be managed separately, and their individual prof-
to be merely adding new lines of business designed to         its maximized — makes perfect sense in a deterministic
broaden their portfolios and reduce the volatility of rev-    environment. But in a stochastic environment, in which
enue and earnings. “The baseline is they have to stand        no company can know how the future will evolve, we
alone,” says one pharmaceutical company CEO, describ-         believe this stand-alone pieces-of-a-portfolio approach is
ing his company’s diverse businesses, which he has fine-      insufficient to position a company to adapt successfully.
tuned with the help of almost a dozen acquisitions in         This does not imply that diversification in a stand-alone
recent years. “I expect them to actually be able to suc-      business cannot be successful. Often pharmaceutical
ceed independently of that extra opportunity afforded         companies build successful businesses and create sig-
Scenarios for                              early trials suggest Benlysta works        remotely monitor hypertension pa-
                                                                well with certain patient populations,     tients’ key health indicators. By im-
                     Success                                    but not with African-Americans, who        proving compliance, Novartis says,
                                                                have a high incidence of the disease.      it hopes to help improve patient out-
                                                                    Pharma + consumer. This sce-           comes and drive down costs.


                     T      he positioning needed for phar-
                            maceutical firms to succeed
                     will evolve in ways that are still un-
                                                                nario assumes that a more holis-
                                                                tic approach to health — embrac-
                                                                ing such approaches as preventive
                                                                                                               Pure pharma + a focus on thera-
                                                                                                           peutic areas. In this scenario, suc-
                                                                                                           cess is a matter of slowing the last
                     known. Some possibilities:                 medicine, wellness services, and           few years’ decline in R&D productiv-
                         Pharma + diagnostics. In this          nonprescription drugs to treat mild        ity, and potentially reversing it. Com-
                     scenario, the success of a company’s       symptoms or side effects — is here         panies looking to do this would con-
                     patented pharmaceutical business           to stay, and could both strengthen a       centrate their capital on therapeutic
                     depends on its diagnostics business.       company’s prescription drug busi-          areas that offer the greatest chance
                     The idea stems from the likelihood         ness and leverage that business’s          for technical and commercial suc-
                     that payors and customers will even-       research breakthroughs. The shift          cess. That is what Novartis has been
                     tually reward proprietary and differ-      toward consumer-centric healthcare         doing in eye care; it purchased Alcon,
                     entiated clinically effective diagnostic   is already reflected in some phar-         an eye-care company, for US$51.6 bil-
feature healthcare




                     services rather than simply paying         maceutical companies’ moves, such          lion in April 2011 and is now a global
                     for readily available commodity ser-       as Sanofi’s effort to extend the life of   leader. As the world’s population
                     vices. In such a world, the ability to     Allegra, an antihistamine, by selling      ages, Novartis sees eye disease as an
                     stratify patient populations via diag-     it over the counter, and Pfizer Inc.’s     increasingly widespread problem and
                     nostics — to match the right patient       reported interest in doing the same        therefore a lucrative area of focus.
                     with the right treatment at the right      with its cholesterol drug Lipitor.             In general, Novartis has bucked
                     dose — would create significant value          A holistic consumer focus can          the trend toward declining R&D pro-
                     and essentially enable a personalized      take forms other than over-the-            ductivity. That has enabled it to con-
                     approach to patient care. In this case,    counter   versions    of   prescription    tinue to invest heavily in new drug
                     pharma businesses will derive signif-      drugs. Consumer businesses bring           development. “We have a highly com-
                     icant advantages from offering both        a unique capability for understanding      petitive and robust pipeline with 63
                     diagnostics and medicines. The diag-       consumers and their behavior, and          NMEs [new molecular entities], and
                     nostics will also give drug companies      this understanding can significantly       higher success rates at every stage of
                     better insights about what molecules       improve patient compliance. For in-        development than our competitors,”
 60
  7
                     to pursue. Human Genome Sciences           stance, Novartis AG, in collabora-         says Chief Executive Joseph Jimenez.
                     Inc.’s lupus medication Benlysta has       tion with several regional payors in                              —A.K. and V.G.
                     benefited from patient stratification;     Europe, is using new technologies to



                     nificant value by entering adjacent spaces. However, if         self in a stochastic environment — flexibility in terms
                     these businesses are not linked with the core pharma-           of the directions in which they can move, and have
                     ceutical business, they won’t help the company prepare,         implications for the companies’ market positions, their
                     or reposition itself, for the future. In such cases, it may     operating models, and the evolution of their capabili-
                     make sense to split the successful independent business         ties. Without question, strategic bets should have the
                     from the core pharmaceutical operation to realize the           potential to enhance the core drug business, the source
                     created value, as Abbott recently decided to do, splitting      of every pharmaceutical company’s greatest potential
                                                                                                                                                     strategy+business issue 66




                     its drugs and medical products businesses into separate         profits. However, implicit in the idea of a bet is that
                     publicly traded companies.                                      it may not be a winner. This explains both why it is
                          This is where the approach of strategic bets comes         essential to make several bets as opposed to bank-
                     in. As we’re defining them, strategic bets give pharma-         ing on one, and why the company must be willing to
                     ceutical companies — or any company that finds it-              move quickly, doubling down or lightening up, after it
To date, most of the shuffling of parts
                     in the pharmaceutical industry
                 has involved portfolio diversification,
                            not strategic bets.




sees how the bet is faring.                                  diagnostics becomes a commodity service offering that
     A strategic bet begins with some hypotheses about       is readily available from multiple third parties, it will
the future and an attempt by a pharmaceutical com-           not be necessary to have these capabilities in-house, and




                                                                                                                          features title of the article
                                                                                                                          feature healthcare
pany to position itself to take advantage of that future.    expansion in diagnostics may not be necessary.
(See “Scenarios for Success,” page 7.) The hypothesis             To date, most of the shuffling of parts in the phar-
might be that disease management will gradually have         maceutical industry has involved portfolio diversifica-
less to do with prescription drugs and physician over-       tion, not strategic bets. Consider Johnson & Johnson
sight, instead becoming more the responsibility of the       (J&J). This company, which has more than $60 billion
patient. In that scenario, the company may want to           in revenue and more than 250 global subsidiaries, has
have a consumer healthcare business — not necessar-          traditionally operated under the philosophy that busi-
ily for the stand-alone profits the business can generate,   ness unit autonomy is the best way to ensure good deci-
but in the belief that a consumer healthcare unit will       sion making and accountability and to drive financial
become an essential partner with pharmaceuticals in          results. That philosophy has served it well in a deter-
a changing disease-management landscape. If the sce-         ministic environment. Recently, however, closer collab-
nario it has built about the future comes true, the com-     oration between J&J’s diagnostics and pharmaceutical
pany will already have the platform in place to make its     businesses, as well as between its pharmaceutical and
overall business more successful. If the scenario doesn’t    consumer businesses, suggests that J&J may be reexam-
                                                                                                                          61
                                                                                                                           8
materialize, the company making the strategic bet can        ining the strategic bets it is making to succeed in a sto-
alter its treatment of the unit — managing it for profit     chastic environment.
or selling it off.                                                A few companies’ M&A moves certainly come
     Another scenario might be that diagnostics will be      close to meeting our definition of strategic bets. One is
among the essential pieces of the pharmaceutical tool        the development of a generics business by Novartis AG,
kit in the future, a way of identifying patients who can     to coexist alongside a branded pharmaceutical business
be helped by particular drugs (and patients who can-         that has developed leading drugs in areas like heart dis-
not) and helping scientists aggregate data much more         ease and cancer. “Fundamentally, we are pro-patent,”
quickly. If this scenario develops in such a way that di-    says Joseph Jimenez, chief executive of Novartis. “But
agnostics services become proprietary, highly differenti-    we believe that when those patents expire, it is our ob-
ated, and profitable, it will be essential for major phar-   ligation to offer low-cost, high-quality generics to help
maceutical companies to develop advanced diagnostics         lower total healthcare costs.”
capabilities. In that scenario, the combination of the            Another move that has the look of a strategic bet is
diagnostics and pharma businesses would become an            the focus on diagnostics at Roche Holding Ltd. In ad-
essential way to improve R&D effectiveness and clini-        dition to now representing more than a fifth of Roche’s
cal outcomes of disease treatment, and could become a        revenue, Roche says, its diagnostics technology has
profitable area of activity for the company. If, however,    made its core pharmaceutical business more successful
Pharma’s                                    longer patent protected but that carry         Novartis AG is building a vaccine
                                                                 the imprimatur of a trusted manufac-       plant in Brazil and a pharmaceutical
                     Common                                      turer, such as GlaxoSmithKline PLC         and generics plant in Russia, says its

                     Commitment to                               or Abbott Laboratories.
                                                                     “It’s important for us to be in the
                                                                                                            chief executive, Joseph Jimenez. In
                                                                                                            addition, the company is setting up a
                     Emerging Markets                            top five in branded generics in some       biomedical research center in China in
                                                                 emerging markets,” says Miles White,       the belief that local R&D work will give
                                                                 CEO of Abbott, who spearheaded the         its scientists better insights into local


                     F     or all the things that are unclear
                           about pharmaceutical compa-
                     nies, one thing is certain: More of their
                                                                 company’s 2010 acquisitions in this
                                                                 area, of Solvay Pharmaceuticals and
                                                                 Piramal Healthcare of India, and who
                                                                                                            patient needs.
                                                                                                                “The incidence of chronic diseas-
                                                                                                            es like diabetes, obesity, and cardio-
                     future profits will come from emerg-        will cede the management of them           vascular disease is rising dramatically
                     ing markets.                                to another Abbott executive, Richard       in China,” Jimenez says. “I’ve seen this
                          To be sure, drug markets out-          Gonzalez, when Abbott’s planned split      firsthand from my own travels and
                     side North America and Europe have          becomes effective in 2012. White adds      talking with government officials.
                     very different characteristics. For         that Abbott’s investment in emerg-             “The work we’re doing in China,”
                     instance, in potentially huge pharma-       ing markets is a long-term play, and       he adds, “is going to give us a strong
feature healthcare




                     ceutical markets such as India and          that it will take “a decade or two” for    lead in enabling us to address the pop-
                     China, consumers are gravitating to-        those markets, as a whole, to “reach       ulation’s rising demand for healthcare
                     ward so-called branded generics —           a scale and size” similar to that of the   and significant unmet medical needs.”
                     generic versions of drugs that are no       United States.                                                     —A.K. and V.G.



                     by identifying new therapeutic targets and screening            A company that has a world-class system for com-
                     out poor drug candidates.                                       municating with doctors, for example, would want to
                                                                                     make sure that its strategic bets take advantage of that
                     How Pharma Can Move Forward                                     capability (the generic drug business as a strategic bet
                     Strategic bets in pharmaceuticals, as in any other in-          would benefit greatly from this capability). A company
                     dustry, must take into account what a company already           that had world-class expertise in cancer therapy, with its
                     does well. In other words, the bets should leverage the         many challenges, would want to make sure that its stra-
                     company’s capabilities system, made up of the three to          tegic bets took advantage of that expertise (as it might
 62
  9
                     six activities that truly differentiate the company and al-     if the strategic bet were a nutrition line optimized for
                     low it to compete effectively both in the market position       the needs of cancer patients). If a strategic bet suggests
                     it has staked out and with the products and services in         that new capabilities will be needed, they should be de-
                     its portfolio. In our experience, companies that exhibit        veloped or acquired in such a way that the company’s
                     a high degree of coherence in these three elements (their       overall capability system remains coherent. If the system
                     capabilities system, market positioning, and product/           is not coherent, the strategic bet will have a high chance
                     service portfolio) tend to thrive in their industry sector;     of failure.
                     companies that exhibit lower degrees of coherence tend               Identifying the right strategic bets should be the
                     to have trouble keeping up. Coherence is an especially          highest strategic priority for the company, and the effort
                     important discipline in stochastic times, because with-         should be led by the CEO or a committee that includes
                     out it, companies tend to make unrelated investments            the CEO, because in most cases these steps will lead to a
                     and spread themselves too thin. (See “The Right to              different or substantially modified strategic direction for
                                                                                                                                                        strategy+business issue 66




                     Win,” by Cesare Mainardi with Art Kleiner, s+b, Win-            the company. We suggest a five-step process:
                     ter 2010.)                                                           1. Embrace change as inevitable. The current
                          Hence, companies need to have the judgment to              “blockbuster” model, defined as relying on traditional
                     focus their strategic bets on areas that use capabilities       capabilities, faces extinction. The issue here is chang-
                     that they already have — or that they could develop.            ing the mentality of senior management. For companies
where this attitude prevails and new capabilities are not            Ticking off these challenges, Abbott CEO Miles
developed, survival is a real question mark.                    White, who has run the company for the last 12 years,
    2. Develop a vision for several potential future            and who will head up the medical devices company
scenarios. The stochastic environment and people’s              once Abbott’s split is complete, says, “My sense is there
inability to predict the future do not mean that every          are several models that will ultimately succeed.”
outcome is equally possible. A dynamic evaluation of                 And therein lies the opportunity. As industries
potential future states (wargaming) can help compa-             evolve, stochastic periods such as the one the pharma-
nies develop views of, for example, how disease man-            ceutical industry is entering don’t last forever; determin-
agement will evolve.                                            istic periods return, allowing companies to move away
    3. Understand the inherent capabilities that the            from multiple strategic bets and pursue a new strategy.
company possesses. Although turbulent times bring               For pharmaceutical companies, the challenge will be to
inevitable change, and doing what you have always               make strategic bets both to survive today and to position




                                                                                                                                             features title of the article
                                                                                                                                             feature healthcare
done is unlikely to be effective, it is vital to have a clear   themselves for the next period of deterministic growth.
sense of what is differentiating about your capabilities        By the time that happens, they’ll be very different com-
system. With this knowledge, a company can deter-               panies than they are today. +
mine which new capabilities it should be adding.                                                                         Reprint No. 00095
    4. Identify strategic bets that can position the com-
pany as a winner. No matter which future scenario ma-
terializes, companies need to determine the capability
sets that are required to win for each of the strategic
bets and, most important, that will support the new
strategic direction.
    5. Develop an organizational and business model
that most effectively supports the new strategic direc-
tion and identified coherent capability set. Companies          Resources
need a plan for evolving their corporate culture, creat-        Ram Charan and Michael Sisk, “Strategic Bets,” s+b, Summer 2011,
                                                                                                                                             10
                                                                                                                                             63
ing a new business model and building new capabilities          strategy-business.com/article/00063: Another view of make-or-break
                                                                shifts in direction when facing uncertainty.
as future scenarios unfold and the external environ-
ment changes.                                                   Matthew Herper, “Rallying Pharma’s Rebels,” Forbes, August 3, 2011:
                                                                Former executive at Eli Lilly and Company offers a blueprint for fixing
                                                                the broken system of pharmaceutical industry R&D.
Survival Comes First
                                                                Peter Loftus, “Pfizer Looks at Lipitor over Counter,” Wall Street Journal,
If anything, the challenges that pharmaceutical compa-          August 4, 2011: How the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has stood
nies face seem to be mounting, especially in the U.S.,          in the way of allowing statins to be sold over the counter.
the biggest market for prescription drugs. Generics now         Eva Von Schaper, “Novartis’s Jimenez Has Blockbuster Plans for
account for upward of three-quarters of all prescriptions       Diovan after Patent Expires,” Bloomberg Businessweek, August 5, 2011:
                                                                A discussion with the CEO of Novartis on how the company is
in the U.S., versus 56 percent in 2005. Pharmaceutical          maneuvering to avoid having its best-selling drug be destroyed by the
companies have fewer resources, having shed 150,000             expiration of its patent.
jobs, many of them in sales. In the U.S., the Food and          Duff Wilson, “Drug Firms Face Billions in Losses in ’11 as Patents End,”
Drug Administration has become much more zealous                New York Times, March 6, 2011: Why the scramble is on for pharma-
                                                                ceutical companies to reinvent themselves and shed their dependence on
about safety. And some of the specialized drug treat-           blockbuster drugs.
ments that are coming to market — priced at $30,000
                                                                For more thought leadership on this topic, see the s+b website at:
a year and higher — face resistance from insurers who           strategy-business.com/health_care.
are questioning their value and refusing to pay.
strategy+business magazine
is published by Booz & Company Inc.
To subscribe, visit www.strategy-business.com
or call 1-877-829-9108.

For more information about Booz & Company,
visit www.booz.com



www.strategy-business.com
www.facebook.com/strategybusiness
http://twitter.com/stratandbiz
101 Park Ave., 18th Floor, New York, NY 10178




© 2012 Booz & Company Inc.

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Kandybin genova (2012) big pharma's uncertain future

  • 1. strategy+business issue 66 SPring 2012 Big Pharma’s Uncertain Future The business model that drove the major drugmakers’ success isn’t working anymore. The survivors will be those that make smart strategic bets supported by winning capabilities. by alex KanDybin anD veSSela genova reprint 00095
  • 2. BIG PHARMA’S UNCERTAIN FUTURE feature healthcare by Alex Kandybin and Vessela Genova The business model that drove the major drugmakers’ success isn’t working anymore. The survivors will be those that make smart strategic bets supported by winning capabilities. 1 In the pharmaceutical industry, nothing is quite as (including Lipitor, Zyprexa, Plavix, and Seroquel) will exciting as a new molecule in the pipeline — especially be coming off patent in the next few years, opening the one that has a chance of solving some major human way to generics and eroding a major source of the in- health problem. In the last few decades, pharma com- dustry’s profits. To be sure, there is still plenty of room panies have consistently developed and launched new for improvement in the medications people take, and no proprietary drugs, bringing hope to sick or at-risk pa- shortage of human suffering to alleviate. But it is doubt- tients, and providing enviable financial returns for the ful whether big pharmaceutical companies will be able companies’ shareholders. Indeed, global pharmaceutical to pursue these goals within the old model of developing Illustration by Oliver Burston companies have been built around the idea of discover- exclusive new pills that they can sell under patent protec- ing blockbuster drugs that solve medical problems com- tion. For one thing, pharma companies in the past were mon to tens of millions of people. They have supported able to develop drugs for health problems that had never that approach with huge investments in their innovation before been addressed. When anti-cholesterol drugs were programs and marketing and sales operations. first launched, for example, they created entirely new, But the era of the blockbuster drug is nearing an multibillion-dollar markets. Today, in contrast, few such end. In the U.S. alone, branded pharmaceuticals ac- unaddressed categories remain, meaning most newly de- counting for some US$120 billion in annual revenues veloped drugs will be competing with existing ones.
  • 4. Alex Kandybin Vessela Genova Also contributing to this alex.kandybin@booz.com vessela.genova@booz.com article was consulting editor is a partner with Booz & is a senior associate with Booz Robert Hertzberg. Company in New York who & Company in Los Angeles. works with clients in the She works with clients in the consumer healthcare and life consumer healthcare, life sciences industries to develop sciences, and media industries strategies and capabilities to help them develop that help them achieve capabilities-driven strategies competitive advantage. to grow competitively and enter global markets. In addition, the pharma companies are feeling The next decade for the pharmaceutical industry is pressure from every direction — from regulators setting shaping up to be not only a period in which the leading the rules for drug effectiveness and safety, from man- companies don’t know what’s going to happen, but one feature healthcare aged care organizations and employers pushing back on in which they can’t know what’s going to happen, be- prescription drug costs and reimbursement, from com- cause so many of the conditions under which they oper- petitors coming to market with alternative brands or ate are in such an unusual state of flux. generics, and from disgruntled shareholders. Internally, None of the new businesses into which the phar- the number of molecules in pharmaceutical company maceutical companies are expanding have the same pipelines is shrinking, and the risk/reward ratio for re- margins as branded drugs, and that raises doubts about search and development outlays is worsening. Overall, whether pharmaceutical companies will be able to these trends have resulted in lower revenue, reduced maintain their past levels of profitability. (See Exhibit profitability, and declining P/E valuation ratios for most 1.) “Some will, some won’t, because there won’t be as major pharmaceutical companies. big a proprietary market to go around in the near term,” The question, however, is more fundamental than says Miles D. White, the chief executive of Abbott Lab- what pharma companies will do for an encore in the post-blockbuster era: The question is whether they can survive at all in their present form. There is no consen- Exhibit 1: Less Attractive Margins 56 3 sus about what comes next, as evidenced by the different Pharmaceutical firms looking to move into adjacent businesses will need to accept lower levels of profitability. strategic moves the major companies have made with mergers, acquisitions, and divestitures in recent years. Average Operating Margin A few have chosen to double down on branded phar- Pharmaceuticals 29% maceuticals, betting that the bad times won’t last and that by adding new therapeutic areas or becoming more Biologics 25% adept at using technology they can continue to gener- Devices/Diagnostics 22% ate large profits from formulations they own exclusively. Many others are looking elsewhere, and have expanded Consumer Healthcare/OTC 20% into such sectors as diagnostics, consumer health, gener- Animal Health 17% ic drugs, biosimilars, nutrition, and wellness. Generics 12% “I don’t think there’s been a time in recent history strategy+business issue 66 where the industry has had a more divergent approach Services 8% to the future,” says Cavan Redmond, group president Drug Wholesalers 2% of corporate strategy at Pfizer Inc. “It means that we’ll have different ways of dealing with healthcare, especial- Source: “Mapping the Healthcare Landscape: Bringing Pharmaceuticals into Focus,” ly on the pharmaceutical side, and less homogeneity.” Datamonitor, November 2009
  • 5. The question is more fundamental than what pharmaceutical companies will do for an encore. It’s whether they can survive at all in their present form. oratories, which is in the process of separating into two Multiple Unknowns companies, one focused on diagnostics and medical de- Just how uncertain a time has Big Pharma entered? vices, the other on prescription drugs. Consider a balloon in different weather conditions. features title of the article feature healthcare To survive — and perhaps thrive — in this un- Release the balloon into a light sea breeze, and it may predictable future, pharmaceutical companies need to bounce a little from side to side, but it will inevitably make some bets about the way the future of the indus- and predictably fly in the direction of the wind. Repeat try will unfold, and design their diversification strate- this experiment and the results will be almost identical gies to position them for success in one or more of the to those of the first try. This is an example of a deter- scenarios they envision. We think these need to be stra- ministic process, meaning you can predict the balloon’s tegic bets, which mesh with the companies’ key capa- behavior and ultimate location with a high degree of ac- bilities systems — the things each company does with curacy by knowing its aerodynamics and the speed and distinction that provide its competitive advantage. We direction of the wind. recommend that companies begin that journey with a Now try to predict what will happen with a balloon five-step process for identifying the best opportunities. in an unstable weather condition like a tornado, with Exhibit 2: Pharma Acquisitions, 2004–10 57 4 Overall, the acquisition activity of the 10 largest pharmaceutical firms in recent years seems chaotic. Number of Acquisitions Value of Acquisitions Average Size of Acquisition (US$ Millions) (US$ Millions) Pharmaceuticals 39 339,442 8,704 Biologics 31 33,620 1,085 Generics 11 55,210 5,019 Consumer Healthcare/OTC 10 76,629 7,663 Devices 10 10,493 1,049 Diagnostics 3 4,367 1,456 Services 2 140 70 Animal Health 1 4,000 4,000 Biosimilars 1 350 350 Nutrition/Wellness 1 320 320 Source: Capital IQ Database
  • 6. Most industries go through periods of both deterministic and stochastic development.... The pharmaceutical industry is entering a stochastic period. Exhibit 3: Pharma Divestitures, 2004–10 The 10 largest pharmaceutical companies have also been selectively divesting businesses as they reposition themselves for changing markets. feature healthcare Number of Divestitures Value of Divestitures Average Size of Divestiture (US$ Millions) (US$ Millions) Pharmaceuticals 9 3,025 336 Consumer Healthcare/OTC 5 3,614 723 Diagnostics 4 713 178 Nutrition/Wellness 3 8,245 2,748 Animal Health 2 13,250 6,625 Services 2 2,300 1,150 Devices 2 1,128 564 Generics 2 485 243 Biologics 1 590 590 Source: Capital IQ Database 58 5 the wind gusting in different directions. Even if you let It became impossible to predict where the computer two balloons go at the same time, they will end up in industry was going, and in the early 1980s the incum- totally different places. You can’t predict the outcome bent players’ strategies diverged significantly. Some bet of this experiment any more than you could predict that the old mainframe paradigm would prevail; others that Dorothy and Toto would end up in a brilliantly expanded to new product and service areas. The out- colorful place called Oz. A balloon in a tornado is an come was stark: Many companies didn’t survive (case example of a stochastic process — the outcome is inher- in point: Cray), and others (such as IBM) survived only ently unpredictable. by making significant changes to their business models Most industries go through periods of both deter- and product portfolios. ministic and stochastic development. For instance, the After years of steady and predictable growth, the computer industry in the 1960s and 1970s had all the pharmaceutical industry is entering a stochastic period strategy+business issue 66 characteristics of a deterministic process. IBM, Bur- of its own. That pharmaceutical companies have diver- roughs, Cray, and others pursued similar strategies, gent views of how the future will evolve is evident in selling giant data processing machines known as main- what they’ve done in the area of mergers and acquisi- frames. The personal computer changed the dynamics tions. On an aggregate basis, M&A activity involving of the industry, triggering a turbulent stochastic period. the 10 largest pharmaceutical companies looks pretty
  • 7. chaotic — no clear pattern is visible in their behavior Exhibit 4: Investment Focus Areas, 2004–10 from 2004 through 2010. (See Exhibits 2 and 3.) Capi- When M&A is viewed on a per-company basis, the pharmaceutical companies’ strategies become more clear. tal transactions in animal health, consumer health, de- features title of the article feature healthcare vices, generic drugs, and branded pharmaceuticals all accounted for tens of billions of dollars in acquisitions, Co ns um divestitures, or both. The one exception is biologics, a N er ut Ph He ri ar An tio type of medicine that everyone seems to agree will be al m im Di Bi th n/ ac ag os ca W Bi al Ge Se eu De el no re im ol He important in the future. ne rv tic ln og vi /O st ila ic al ri es ce al ic ic TC es cs rs th s s s s s When you look at M&A activity on an individual Sanofi company basis, however, the pharma companies’ behav- Pfizer ior looks considerably less chaotic. Most of them have Abbott used deals to narrow their focus to two or three areas GlaxoSmithKline besides core pharmaceuticals and biologics. (See Exhibit Novartis 4.) The other focuses they’ve selected are the result of an Johnson & Johnson assessment by each company of where it might succeed, Roche and the amount of diversification it can support. AstraZeneca Merck 59 6 Value of Strategic Bets Bayer The diversification moves that pharmaceutical compa- nies have made may look like they meet our definition Source: Capital IQ Database, Booz & Company analysis of strategic bets: Bets designed to position the company for success in one or more specific business scenarios, that are either aligned with the company’s existing key by some linkage” with other units, he says. capabilities systems or that include a plan for developing This is still the common mind-set in the industry, or acquiring other capabilities that will be needed for and the underlying assumption — that business units success. Instead, in many cases, pharma companies seem should be managed separately, and their individual prof- to be merely adding new lines of business designed to its maximized — makes perfect sense in a deterministic broaden their portfolios and reduce the volatility of rev- environment. But in a stochastic environment, in which enue and earnings. “The baseline is they have to stand no company can know how the future will evolve, we alone,” says one pharmaceutical company CEO, describ- believe this stand-alone pieces-of-a-portfolio approach is ing his company’s diverse businesses, which he has fine- insufficient to position a company to adapt successfully. tuned with the help of almost a dozen acquisitions in This does not imply that diversification in a stand-alone recent years. “I expect them to actually be able to suc- business cannot be successful. Often pharmaceutical ceed independently of that extra opportunity afforded companies build successful businesses and create sig-
  • 8. Scenarios for early trials suggest Benlysta works remotely monitor hypertension pa- well with certain patient populations, tients’ key health indicators. By im- Success but not with African-Americans, who proving compliance, Novartis says, have a high incidence of the disease. it hopes to help improve patient out- Pharma + consumer. This sce- comes and drive down costs. T he positioning needed for phar- maceutical firms to succeed will evolve in ways that are still un- nario assumes that a more holis- tic approach to health — embrac- ing such approaches as preventive Pure pharma + a focus on thera- peutic areas. In this scenario, suc- cess is a matter of slowing the last known. Some possibilities: medicine, wellness services, and few years’ decline in R&D productiv- Pharma + diagnostics. In this nonprescription drugs to treat mild ity, and potentially reversing it. Com- scenario, the success of a company’s symptoms or side effects — is here panies looking to do this would con- patented pharmaceutical business to stay, and could both strengthen a centrate their capital on therapeutic depends on its diagnostics business. company’s prescription drug busi- areas that offer the greatest chance The idea stems from the likelihood ness and leverage that business’s for technical and commercial suc- that payors and customers will even- research breakthroughs. The shift cess. That is what Novartis has been tually reward proprietary and differ- toward consumer-centric healthcare doing in eye care; it purchased Alcon, entiated clinically effective diagnostic is already reflected in some phar- an eye-care company, for US$51.6 bil- feature healthcare services rather than simply paying maceutical companies’ moves, such lion in April 2011 and is now a global for readily available commodity ser- as Sanofi’s effort to extend the life of leader. As the world’s population vices. In such a world, the ability to Allegra, an antihistamine, by selling ages, Novartis sees eye disease as an stratify patient populations via diag- it over the counter, and Pfizer Inc.’s increasingly widespread problem and nostics — to match the right patient reported interest in doing the same therefore a lucrative area of focus. with the right treatment at the right with its cholesterol drug Lipitor. In general, Novartis has bucked dose — would create significant value A holistic consumer focus can the trend toward declining R&D pro- and essentially enable a personalized take forms other than over-the- ductivity. That has enabled it to con- approach to patient care. In this case, counter versions of prescription tinue to invest heavily in new drug pharma businesses will derive signif- drugs. Consumer businesses bring development. “We have a highly com- icant advantages from offering both a unique capability for understanding petitive and robust pipeline with 63 diagnostics and medicines. The diag- consumers and their behavior, and NMEs [new molecular entities], and nostics will also give drug companies this understanding can significantly higher success rates at every stage of better insights about what molecules improve patient compliance. For in- development than our competitors,” 60 7 to pursue. Human Genome Sciences stance, Novartis AG, in collabora- says Chief Executive Joseph Jimenez. Inc.’s lupus medication Benlysta has tion with several regional payors in —A.K. and V.G. benefited from patient stratification; Europe, is using new technologies to nificant value by entering adjacent spaces. However, if self in a stochastic environment — flexibility in terms these businesses are not linked with the core pharma- of the directions in which they can move, and have ceutical business, they won’t help the company prepare, implications for the companies’ market positions, their or reposition itself, for the future. In such cases, it may operating models, and the evolution of their capabili- make sense to split the successful independent business ties. Without question, strategic bets should have the from the core pharmaceutical operation to realize the potential to enhance the core drug business, the source created value, as Abbott recently decided to do, splitting of every pharmaceutical company’s greatest potential strategy+business issue 66 its drugs and medical products businesses into separate profits. However, implicit in the idea of a bet is that publicly traded companies. it may not be a winner. This explains both why it is This is where the approach of strategic bets comes essential to make several bets as opposed to bank- in. As we’re defining them, strategic bets give pharma- ing on one, and why the company must be willing to ceutical companies — or any company that finds it- move quickly, doubling down or lightening up, after it
  • 9. To date, most of the shuffling of parts in the pharmaceutical industry has involved portfolio diversification, not strategic bets. sees how the bet is faring. diagnostics becomes a commodity service offering that A strategic bet begins with some hypotheses about is readily available from multiple third parties, it will the future and an attempt by a pharmaceutical com- not be necessary to have these capabilities in-house, and features title of the article feature healthcare pany to position itself to take advantage of that future. expansion in diagnostics may not be necessary. (See “Scenarios for Success,” page 7.) The hypothesis To date, most of the shuffling of parts in the phar- might be that disease management will gradually have maceutical industry has involved portfolio diversifica- less to do with prescription drugs and physician over- tion, not strategic bets. Consider Johnson & Johnson sight, instead becoming more the responsibility of the (J&J). This company, which has more than $60 billion patient. In that scenario, the company may want to in revenue and more than 250 global subsidiaries, has have a consumer healthcare business — not necessar- traditionally operated under the philosophy that busi- ily for the stand-alone profits the business can generate, ness unit autonomy is the best way to ensure good deci- but in the belief that a consumer healthcare unit will sion making and accountability and to drive financial become an essential partner with pharmaceuticals in results. That philosophy has served it well in a deter- a changing disease-management landscape. If the sce- ministic environment. Recently, however, closer collab- nario it has built about the future comes true, the com- oration between J&J’s diagnostics and pharmaceutical pany will already have the platform in place to make its businesses, as well as between its pharmaceutical and overall business more successful. If the scenario doesn’t consumer businesses, suggests that J&J may be reexam- 61 8 materialize, the company making the strategic bet can ining the strategic bets it is making to succeed in a sto- alter its treatment of the unit — managing it for profit chastic environment. or selling it off. A few companies’ M&A moves certainly come Another scenario might be that diagnostics will be close to meeting our definition of strategic bets. One is among the essential pieces of the pharmaceutical tool the development of a generics business by Novartis AG, kit in the future, a way of identifying patients who can to coexist alongside a branded pharmaceutical business be helped by particular drugs (and patients who can- that has developed leading drugs in areas like heart dis- not) and helping scientists aggregate data much more ease and cancer. “Fundamentally, we are pro-patent,” quickly. If this scenario develops in such a way that di- says Joseph Jimenez, chief executive of Novartis. “But agnostics services become proprietary, highly differenti- we believe that when those patents expire, it is our ob- ated, and profitable, it will be essential for major phar- ligation to offer low-cost, high-quality generics to help maceutical companies to develop advanced diagnostics lower total healthcare costs.” capabilities. In that scenario, the combination of the Another move that has the look of a strategic bet is diagnostics and pharma businesses would become an the focus on diagnostics at Roche Holding Ltd. In ad- essential way to improve R&D effectiveness and clini- dition to now representing more than a fifth of Roche’s cal outcomes of disease treatment, and could become a revenue, Roche says, its diagnostics technology has profitable area of activity for the company. If, however, made its core pharmaceutical business more successful
  • 10. Pharma’s longer patent protected but that carry Novartis AG is building a vaccine the imprimatur of a trusted manufac- plant in Brazil and a pharmaceutical Common turer, such as GlaxoSmithKline PLC and generics plant in Russia, says its Commitment to or Abbott Laboratories. “It’s important for us to be in the chief executive, Joseph Jimenez. In addition, the company is setting up a Emerging Markets top five in branded generics in some biomedical research center in China in emerging markets,” says Miles White, the belief that local R&D work will give CEO of Abbott, who spearheaded the its scientists better insights into local F or all the things that are unclear about pharmaceutical compa- nies, one thing is certain: More of their company’s 2010 acquisitions in this area, of Solvay Pharmaceuticals and Piramal Healthcare of India, and who patient needs. “The incidence of chronic diseas- es like diabetes, obesity, and cardio- future profits will come from emerg- will cede the management of them vascular disease is rising dramatically ing markets. to another Abbott executive, Richard in China,” Jimenez says. “I’ve seen this To be sure, drug markets out- Gonzalez, when Abbott’s planned split firsthand from my own travels and side North America and Europe have becomes effective in 2012. White adds talking with government officials. very different characteristics. For that Abbott’s investment in emerg- “The work we’re doing in China,” instance, in potentially huge pharma- ing markets is a long-term play, and he adds, “is going to give us a strong feature healthcare ceutical markets such as India and that it will take “a decade or two” for lead in enabling us to address the pop- China, consumers are gravitating to- those markets, as a whole, to “reach ulation’s rising demand for healthcare ward so-called branded generics — a scale and size” similar to that of the and significant unmet medical needs.” generic versions of drugs that are no United States. —A.K. and V.G. by identifying new therapeutic targets and screening A company that has a world-class system for com- out poor drug candidates. municating with doctors, for example, would want to make sure that its strategic bets take advantage of that How Pharma Can Move Forward capability (the generic drug business as a strategic bet Strategic bets in pharmaceuticals, as in any other in- would benefit greatly from this capability). A company dustry, must take into account what a company already that had world-class expertise in cancer therapy, with its does well. In other words, the bets should leverage the many challenges, would want to make sure that its stra- company’s capabilities system, made up of the three to tegic bets took advantage of that expertise (as it might 62 9 six activities that truly differentiate the company and al- if the strategic bet were a nutrition line optimized for low it to compete effectively both in the market position the needs of cancer patients). If a strategic bet suggests it has staked out and with the products and services in that new capabilities will be needed, they should be de- its portfolio. In our experience, companies that exhibit veloped or acquired in such a way that the company’s a high degree of coherence in these three elements (their overall capability system remains coherent. If the system capabilities system, market positioning, and product/ is not coherent, the strategic bet will have a high chance service portfolio) tend to thrive in their industry sector; of failure. companies that exhibit lower degrees of coherence tend Identifying the right strategic bets should be the to have trouble keeping up. Coherence is an especially highest strategic priority for the company, and the effort important discipline in stochastic times, because with- should be led by the CEO or a committee that includes out it, companies tend to make unrelated investments the CEO, because in most cases these steps will lead to a and spread themselves too thin. (See “The Right to different or substantially modified strategic direction for strategy+business issue 66 Win,” by Cesare Mainardi with Art Kleiner, s+b, Win- the company. We suggest a five-step process: ter 2010.) 1. Embrace change as inevitable. The current Hence, companies need to have the judgment to “blockbuster” model, defined as relying on traditional focus their strategic bets on areas that use capabilities capabilities, faces extinction. The issue here is chang- that they already have — or that they could develop. ing the mentality of senior management. For companies
  • 11. where this attitude prevails and new capabilities are not Ticking off these challenges, Abbott CEO Miles developed, survival is a real question mark. White, who has run the company for the last 12 years, 2. Develop a vision for several potential future and who will head up the medical devices company scenarios. The stochastic environment and people’s once Abbott’s split is complete, says, “My sense is there inability to predict the future do not mean that every are several models that will ultimately succeed.” outcome is equally possible. A dynamic evaluation of And therein lies the opportunity. As industries potential future states (wargaming) can help compa- evolve, stochastic periods such as the one the pharma- nies develop views of, for example, how disease man- ceutical industry is entering don’t last forever; determin- agement will evolve. istic periods return, allowing companies to move away 3. Understand the inherent capabilities that the from multiple strategic bets and pursue a new strategy. company possesses. Although turbulent times bring For pharmaceutical companies, the challenge will be to inevitable change, and doing what you have always make strategic bets both to survive today and to position features title of the article feature healthcare done is unlikely to be effective, it is vital to have a clear themselves for the next period of deterministic growth. sense of what is differentiating about your capabilities By the time that happens, they’ll be very different com- system. With this knowledge, a company can deter- panies than they are today. + mine which new capabilities it should be adding. Reprint No. 00095 4. Identify strategic bets that can position the com- pany as a winner. No matter which future scenario ma- terializes, companies need to determine the capability sets that are required to win for each of the strategic bets and, most important, that will support the new strategic direction. 5. Develop an organizational and business model that most effectively supports the new strategic direc- tion and identified coherent capability set. Companies Resources need a plan for evolving their corporate culture, creat- Ram Charan and Michael Sisk, “Strategic Bets,” s+b, Summer 2011, 10 63 ing a new business model and building new capabilities strategy-business.com/article/00063: Another view of make-or-break shifts in direction when facing uncertainty. as future scenarios unfold and the external environ- ment changes. Matthew Herper, “Rallying Pharma’s Rebels,” Forbes, August 3, 2011: Former executive at Eli Lilly and Company offers a blueprint for fixing the broken system of pharmaceutical industry R&D. Survival Comes First Peter Loftus, “Pfizer Looks at Lipitor over Counter,” Wall Street Journal, If anything, the challenges that pharmaceutical compa- August 4, 2011: How the U.S. Food and Drug Administration has stood nies face seem to be mounting, especially in the U.S., in the way of allowing statins to be sold over the counter. the biggest market for prescription drugs. Generics now Eva Von Schaper, “Novartis’s Jimenez Has Blockbuster Plans for account for upward of three-quarters of all prescriptions Diovan after Patent Expires,” Bloomberg Businessweek, August 5, 2011: A discussion with the CEO of Novartis on how the company is in the U.S., versus 56 percent in 2005. Pharmaceutical maneuvering to avoid having its best-selling drug be destroyed by the companies have fewer resources, having shed 150,000 expiration of its patent. jobs, many of them in sales. In the U.S., the Food and Duff Wilson, “Drug Firms Face Billions in Losses in ’11 as Patents End,” Drug Administration has become much more zealous New York Times, March 6, 2011: Why the scramble is on for pharma- ceutical companies to reinvent themselves and shed their dependence on about safety. And some of the specialized drug treat- blockbuster drugs. ments that are coming to market — priced at $30,000 For more thought leadership on this topic, see the s+b website at: a year and higher — face resistance from insurers who strategy-business.com/health_care. are questioning their value and refusing to pay.
  • 12. strategy+business magazine is published by Booz & Company Inc. To subscribe, visit www.strategy-business.com or call 1-877-829-9108. For more information about Booz & Company, visit www.booz.com www.strategy-business.com www.facebook.com/strategybusiness http://twitter.com/stratandbiz 101 Park Ave., 18th Floor, New York, NY 10178 © 2012 Booz & Company Inc.