After a number of years, I thought it timely to update this lecture.

1. The Internet and Crisis
Prof David Phillips FCIPR FSCR
Last updated 29 October 2013
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2. Is the Internet Important to PR
During Crisis?
 Almost instant data spike
 Very fast moving
 Aggregates all other activities
 Spreads every detail to all media and the
population at large.
 Fortunately verification is not always good
enough in the first few minutes.
 Unfortunately, verification tools are becoming very
intelligent.
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3. Yes – it happens to the best of us
“I’m told by a reputable person they have killed Osama
Bin Laden.” Keith Urban at 03:24 – not The White
House!
In "Social Business Readiness: How Advanced
Companies Prepare Internally," Altimeter Group analyzed
50 social media crises that have occurred since 2001.
He was not the first reporter. Shortly after 4pm EST on
1 May Sohaib Athar (@ReallyVirtual on Twitter) was
live-tweeting a series of helicopter flypasts and
explosions and was unwittingly covering the US forces
raid on Osama Bin Laden‟s compound. Meanwhile
somewhere in the vicinity @m0hcin was reporting too.
They found that those reaching mainstream media have
risen steadily through the past decade, with just 1-2
incidents per year in the first five years and a total of 10
social media crises last year alone.
The report also sheds light on exactly how social media
crises arise and how companies can avoid them.
Source: Mashable
Source: leverwealth
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4. But – what is a crisis online


Variation
All plans/activities have expected outcomes, financial budgets and timescales. These are
often identified using aids for project planning. Monitoring such plans will identify where plans
are going awry. This is normal day to day management. We all do it.

Foreseen uncertainties
There are some variations that are identifiable and understood that the PR team cannot be
sure will occur or when. They can be planned for and are part of management. Like coping
with unexpected staff illness – managers cope.

Unforeseen Uncertainty
This kind of event cannot be identified during project planning. Or during risk management
planning. There is no Plan B. Good management has crisis management planning in place to
mitigate effects (this is what today is about – good management.

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It is a departure from a norm and can mostly be managed.
Unknown unknowns
Sometimes referred to as “unk-unks,” they make people nervous because existing decision
tools are not available. It is possible to push unk unks further away with good crisis
management tools in place.
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5. The processes
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6. The processes
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7. The processes
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8. The processes
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9. Have a planned methodology
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10. What does this entail
 Know what is „normal‟
 Have measures in place to be able to identify variation
 Be sure that variation can be managed by a wide
community.
 Foreseen uncertainty circumstances are identified by
looking at historic variation – are there generic foreseen
circumstances (e.g. staff illness, transport strike etc) did
we manage it well, how can we manage it better. Train
people to recognise and manage
 Unforeseen Uncertainty requires having crisis
management tools in place (monitoring, evaluation,
reporting and information dissemination, multi location/time
zone responses etc.
 Need for impact analysis
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11. What is normal
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12. Where do you find out?
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13. The building blocks
 Every management reporting process is helpful.
 Mostly management reports do not have much
out of the ordinary (much as we would like to
think otherwise)
 We look for variance.
 There are tools to help
 Public Relations practitioners are allowed to use
Big Data tools too!
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14. Watching the normal using LSI
Treasury Committee
Opening Statement
Thursday 25
November 2010
Treasury Committee
Opening Statement
Wednesday 28 July
2010
Treasury Committee
Opening Statement
Tuesday 23 February 2010
Treasury Committee
Opening Statement
Tuesday 24 November
2009
Themes
•considerable uncertainty
•future path
•controlling inflation
•real exchange rate
•temporary stimulus
•unprecedented response
•domestic consumption
•net trade position
•goods exports
•major change
Themes
•central bank governors
•bank balance sheets
•place today
•liquidity requirements
•particularly grateful
•collective view
•current crisis
•transition period
•liquidity standards
•gradual improvement
Themes
•unprecedented level
•monetary stimulus
•standard rate
•low level
•substantial boost
•money spending
•open letter
•exchange rate
depreciation
•spare capacity
•previous episodes
Themes
•petrol price inflation
•spare capacity
•spending relative
•supply capacity
•prospective reversal
•short time horizon
•significant margin
•labour market
•price level effects
•much traction
Topics
Topics
Topics
Topics
Banking
Economics
Investing
Labor
Real Estate
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0.68
0.63
0.62
0.55
0.52
Banking
Investing
Economics
Labor
Real Estate
Politics
0.84
0.60
0.59
0.55
0.47
0.00
Banking
Investing
Economics
Real Estate
Traditional Energy
Politics
0.82
0.63
0.59
0.56
0.55
0.00
Banking
Economics
Labor
Investing
Traditional Energy
Simple semantic analysis picks out themes, normality and
variance. The very grist to the mill of rumour, conjecture and
potential uncertainty. A good PR tool, for issues management.
0.67
0.62
0.61
0.59
0.46
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15. Network theory is important online
 Who is linked to whom
 What is linked to what and who and how
 +davidghphillips #BoE, @RobElder etc
 Who and what is changing
 How fast
 News Monitoring/tone is now automated
 Its the news (an RSS feed on your phone)
 Internet monitoring is a bit more difficult
 Big Data monitoring is essential
 But it is very creepy
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16. Influence networks real people in G+
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17. Network theory
 Every thing you do
or say is
discoverable
 Your comments,
friends, location
etc
 Your
acquaintances
and followers and
their networks too
 So too for
organisations.
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18. What is changing and how to find out
 From the perspective of population
 From the perspective of the Governor
 Lisbon Theory
 Semantic analysis
 Tag the concepts
 To what extent




Is this item relevant
Important
Helpful
Dangerous
 To what extent are there new semantic concepts
 Do they need to be managed
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19. Monitoring search profiles – the
perspective of the population
 What is a „normal‟ profile
bank of england bank rate
what is the current bank of england …
bank of england current interest rate
Jul 2013
bank of england base rates
Jun 2013
interests rates uk
May 2013
current bank of england interest rate
Apr 2013
bank of england rate
Mar 2013
boe interest rate
bank of england interest rate…
Feb 2013
interest rate bank of england
Jan 2013
bank of england base rate
Dec 2012
interest rates bank of england
Nov 2012
bank of england interest rates
Oct 2012
bank of england interest rate
Sep 2012
interest rates
0
10000
20000
30000
• If it changes, its a crisis
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Source: Google Analytics
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20. The LinkedIn network
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21. Facebook connections – it‟s who they
know that counts
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22. Profile on Twitter
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In 48 minutes 450 tweets collected, 157 of these tweets form connected components. From this, on the map
we can see 3 large communities of Twitter users, joined by multiple smaller ones (Source: Keene
Communications).
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23. Robert Peston‟s influence on the
client in Twitter
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Monitoring key influencers in different media is useful
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24. Figure 4. Words, phrases, and topics most distinguishing subjects aged 13 to 18, 19 to 22, 23 to
29, and 30 to 65 in Facebook
Schwartz HA, Eichstaedt JC, Kern ML, Dziurzynski L, et al. (2013) Personality, Gender, and Age in the Language of Social Media:
The Open-Vocabulary Approach. PLoS ONE 8(9): e73791. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073791
http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0073791

25. YouTube influencer content
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26. Including Images
Curalate
•Ditto
•gazeMetrix
•LTU Technologies
•TinEye
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27. How fast
 Is important to know – and if it gets faster.....
Google+
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Twitter
LinkedIn
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28. How many media
Blogs
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Pinterest
There are Limits
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29. Preparing for the day 1
 Re-visit social media
 Check all is up to date
 Watch who else is contributing
 Be ready to edit fast (e.g. Wikipedia)
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30. Preparing for the day 2
 An escalation plan
 Important to react
 Important not to over react
 Who
 Nominated person
 Trained person
 Available information
 Fast internal monitoring
 Fast external monitoring
 Establishment of the facts
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31. Testing the system
 Narrowcast – broadcast
 Is it „Robert Peston‟s‟ network or Robert Peston the
person.
 Is it a specific media (e.g. Twitter) or across social
media – knowing that it will cross media borders
fast
 Robert is on Radio, TV, Blogs, Twitter etc etc.
 Have the information about him to hand?
 Once you use a media you have to keep doing it.
 If you don‟t you don‟t have a voice/credibility
 If you do, it has to be part of the overall strategic
comms plan (content, monitoring, analysis ROI etc)
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32. Collateral/contributors/timing
 Content
 Essential facts
 Supporting data (hyperlinks)
 Images (get more attention)
 Mix and match people
 A method that allows you to say the same thing over and
again without looking like stonewalling
 First response quick
 Then keep up a series of contributions (e.g. Every hour)
 Never stretch the truth – a million experts online will put
you right!
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33. What the experts say

Risk management






Identify risk events
Assess the probability of each event
Make a cost-benefit analysis of response alternatives
Choose a response
Re-assess probability and impact with company response
On-going monitoring of risk events
 “Crisis is a process of transformation where the old system can no
longer be maintained.



1. unexpected (i.e., a surprise)
2. creates uncertainty
3. is seen as a threat to important goal system that can no longer be maintained."
Most “research does not consider the enormous influence a crisis has
on social media that further affects the relationship between social
media and the stock market.”
 There are measurable differences in the way microblog messages
propagate. ...these differences relate to newsworthiness and credibility
of the information conveyed, and (there are) features that are effective
for classifying information automatically as credible or not credible.

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Source: Venette, S. J. (2003). Risk communication in a High Reliability Organization: APHIS PPQ's inclusion of risk in decision making. Ann
Arbor, MI: UMI Proquest Information and Learning.
Source: Jiang, CuiQing, et al. "Analyzing market performance via social media: a case study of a banking industry crisis." Science China
Information Sciences (2013): 1-18.
Source: Carlos Castillo, Marcelo Mendoza, Barbara Poblete, (2013) "Predicting Information Credibility in Time-Sensitive Social
Media", Internet Research, Vol. 23 Iss: 5
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34. Evidence of SocMed significance
 Blogs and Social Media: “The New Word of Mouth
and its Impact on the Reputation of Banks and on
their Profitability”
 ...Social media-based metrics (Web blogs and consumer
ratings) are significant leading indicators of firm equity
value.
 Companies, brands, politicians, governmental
institutions, and celebrities have increasingly been
facing the impact of negative online WOM and complaint
behaviour.
 In reaction to any questionable statement or
activity, social media users can create huge waves of
outrage within just a few hours.
Source: Eleftheria (Roila) Christakou, George-Michael Klimis Handbook of Social Media Management Media Business and Innovation 2013, pp 715-735
Source: Luo, Xueming, J. Zhang, and W. Duan (2013), “Social Media and Firm Equity Value,” Information Systems Research, Forthcoming
Source: J. Pfeffera*, T. Zorbachb & K. M. Carleya (June 2013) Understanding online firestorms: Negative word-of-mouth dynamics in social media networks.
Journal of Marketing Communications
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35. Social Media is part of Crisis
management say the researchers
 Social media such as Twitter and Facebook have
become important tools for crisis communication.
 These interactive venues require public relations
practitioners to be risk managers, organisational
strategists, crisis responders, and intelligence
gatherers in addition to their role as advocates.
Source: Theorizing Crisis Communication, First Edition. Edited by Timothy L. Sellnow and Matthew W. Seeger. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.
Source: Duhe, S & Wright D K. 2013 Public Relations and Communications Management: Current Trends and Emerging Topics. Routledge.
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36. But what about Print media?
 There is little division between online PR and traditional press
relations
 European Public Relations Education and Research Association
papers this year show that Media Relations is more productive when
conducted using social media (except via Facebook).
 Online Circulations are up a lot.
 NRS PADD Survey reports the Guardian now has 1.7 million
more monthly readers than the Telegraph, compared to May
when this figure was 1.6 million.
 Guardian is the most-read news site in the UK with 10.4 million
readers, 523,000 more than the Mail Online (9.9 million).
 Trade media as well as newspapers
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37. In Summary
 You face issues
 They will escalate to crisis
 Not all crisis is the same
 Possible to mitigate
 Network theory semantic evaluation and related




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data analysis are big allies
Not possible to respond across all media
A need to plan, prepare, train and test.
Good research available to aid decision making
Online and offline media are converging
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38. Questions
 Questions
 Contributions
 A bit of brain storming
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39. Thank you
David Phillips FCIPR FSCR
david.g.h.phillips@gmail.com
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http://nod3x.com/projects/dashboard/?project=20503
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40. More reading

Balmer, J.M.T., (2010) „The BP Deepwater Horizon debacle and corporate brand
exuberance‟ in Journal of Brand Management, vol.18, Macmillan Publishers

Bergin, T. 2011. Spills and Spin: the Inside Story of BP. Random House.

Fearn-Banks, K. (2008) Crisis Communication Student Workbook. London:
Routledge


Leighton, N. Shelton, T., 2008. Proactive Crisis Communication Planning. In P.F.
Anthonissen, ed. 2008. Crisis Communications: practical PR strategies for
reputation management and company survival. London: Kogan Page. Ch.2.
Middlemass, N., 2011. How Can BP Regain Trust? CorpComms, 57, p.47.
CURTIN, Tom, with Daniel Hayman and Naomi Husein, Managing a Crisis: A
practical guide, Palgrave Macmillan, 2005

TENCH, Ralph & Liz Yeomans, Exploring Public Relations, Prentice Hall, 2006

Ajder, M., 2011. Three Minute Lesson: Rebuilding Trust and Revision Notes:
Deepwater Horizon. CorpComms, 57, p.48.

Anthonissen, P.F. ed., 2008. Crisis Communications: practical PR strategies for
reputation management and company survival. London: Kogan Page.

Barnett, M.L. and Hoffman, A.J., 2008. Beyond Corporate Reputation: Managing
Reputational Interdependence. Corporate Reputation Review, 11, pp.1-9.

Bland, M., 1998. Communicating Out of a Crisis. London: Macmillan Business.

Borda, J. L. and Mackey-Kallis, S., 2004. A Model for Crisis Management. In: R. L.
Heath and D. P. Millar, ed. 2004. A Rhetorical Approach to Crisis Communications:
Management, Communication Processes, and Strategic Responses. Kindle ed.
New Jersey: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Ch.8.

Carroll, C., 2009. Defying a Reputational Crisis – Cadbury's Salmonella Scare: Why
are Customers Willing to Forgive and Forget? Corporate Reputation
Review, 12, pp.64-82.

Cave, A., 2011. BP: One Year On. CorpComms, 57, pp.37-41.

Johns, T., 2011. How Could BP Get It So Wrong? CorpComms, 57, p.46.

Langford, M., 2006. Crisis Public Relations Management. In: R. Tench and L.
Yeomans, ed. 2006. Exploring Public Relations. Essex: Pearson Education Ltd.
Ch.20.

Langford, M., 2005. Smelling of Roses or Drowning in Crude Oil? A Point of View
on Managing Environmental Crises. Journal of Communication
Management, 9(3), pp.365-374.

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
Pang, A. Crop, F. and Cameron, G.T., 2006. Corporate Crisis Planning:
Tensions, Issues and Contradictions. Journal of Communication
Management, 10(4), pp.371-389.

Phillips, D. & Young, P 2009 Online Public Relations Kogan Page

Seeger, M.W. Sellnow, T.L. and Ulmer, R.R., 2001. Public Relations and Crisis
Communication: Organizing and Chaos. In: R.L. Heath, ed. 2001. Handbook of
Public Relations. California: Sage Publications Inc. Ch.11.

Walker, K., 2010. A Systematic Review of the Corporate Reputation Literature:
Definition, Measurement, and Theory. Corporate Reputation Review, 12, pp.357387.

Yu, T. and Lester, R.H., 2008. Moving Beyond Firm Boundaries: A Social Network
Perspective on Reputation Spillover. Corporate Reputation Review, 11, pp.94–108.

Deloach, J. (2013) Managing Reputation
Risk, http://www.corporatecomplianceinsights.com/managing-reputation-risk
accessed 27 January 2013

Honey, G. (2009) A Short Guide to Reputation Risk, Gower, UK, p. 26
https://fp7.portals.mbs.ac.uk/Portals/59/docs/KNPapers2/Do_banks_manage_Repu
tational_Risk.pdf

CIPR Crisis Diploma Reading List

Bland, M (1998) Communicating Out of a Crisis, London: Macmillan
Wolstenholme, S [ed.] (2009) The PR Digest, Harlow: Pearson Education & The
CIPR

Regester, M & Larkin, J. (2008), Risk Issues and Crisis Management, Kogan
Page/CIPR, 4th ed

Seymour, M and Moore, S (2000) Effective Crisis Management: worldwide
principles and practice. London: Cassell
Barton, L., 2004. Crisis Management: Master the Skills to Prevent Disasters.
Boston, MA: Harvard Business School Press.

Olaniran, B.A. and Williams, D.E., 2001. Anticipatory Model of Crisis Management:
A Vigilant Response to Technological Crises. In: R.L. Heath, ed. 2001. Handbook
of Public Relations. California: Sage Publications Inc. Ch.41.
QUIRKE, Bill, Communicating Change, McGraw-Hill Book Company, 1995


BLAND, Michael, When it hits the Fan, Centre Publishing Ltd 2004

Milenkovic, G., 2001. Early Warning of Organizational Crises: A Research Project
from the International Air Express Industry. Journal of Communication
Management, 5(4), pp.360-373.



Lee, J. Woeste, J.H. and Heath, R.L., 2007. Getting Ready for Crises: Strategic
Excellence. Public Relations Review, 33, pp.334-336.
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