Aurelio Fetz, from the Swiss Energy Ministry, presented the Swiss energy strategy and current DSM research projects at the Task 24 workshop in Luzern, October 15, 2013.

1. Swiss Energy Strategy and research projects
concerning behavior change
Dr. Aurelio Fetz, Market Regulation, Swiss Federal Office of Energy
Workshop IEA DSM Task 24, 15.10.2013

2. Why is Energy Strategy 2050 necessary?
Prices and
markets
Supply
security
Climate
change
Environment,
nature,
landscape
Infrastructure
Population
growth
Energy Strategy
2050
Withdrawal
from nuclear
energy
2

3. Energy policy milestones since Fukushima
• On 25 May 2011, Federal Council
announces decision to withdraw from
nuclear energy.
• Parliament subsequently adopts this
resolution.
• Initial package of Energy Strategy 2050
measures has been submitted to
Parliament at its 2013 autumn session.
3

4. Energy Strategy 2050: key elements (1/2)
1. No new nuclear power plants
2. Promotion of energy efficiency
3. Increased use of renewable energy
•
•
Hydropower: + 3.2 TWh
(+ pump storage for integration of new
renewable energy forms)
New renewable energy: exploitation of
sustainably utilisable potentials (24.2 TWh)
4. Remaining demand to be met through:
• Fossil-fuelled electricity production
(primarily gas and steam)
• Imports
4

5. Energy Strategy 2050: key elements (2/2)
5. Expansion of electricity networks
• Optimisation, renovation and expansion of
transmission and distribution networks
• Reorientation in direction of smart grids
6. Intensified energy research
7. Federal government to act as role model
8. Strengthening of SwissEnergy programme
9. Intensification of international cooperation
in the energy sector
5

6. Energy Strategy 2050: overview
Energy Strategy 2050
Phase 1
Phase 2
(from 2021)
Coordinated Energy
Research action
plan
2050 energy
perspectives
Transition from
promotion system to
steering mechanism
Initial package of
measures
Parliamentary
initiative
12.400
Negotiations with the EU on
electricity agreement
Electricity
networks
strategy
Second stage of
market
liberalisation
Revision of
Electricity
Supply Act
6

7. Effects of initial package of measures:
end-energy use and electricity consumption, 1950-2050
PJ
TWh
900
250
800
EEV
700
200
45 %
600
208 PJ
500
400
100
300
200
51 %
Electricity demand
Elektrizitätsnachfrage
58 PJ
100
0
1950
NEP =
50
(c) Prognos AG 2012
1960
1970
1980
Past
Vergangenheit
Szenarien:
WWB =
POM =
150
1990
2000
WWB
Business as Usual
Political Measures of the Federal
Council
New Energy Policy
2010
2020
2030
2040
0
2050
POM
NEP
Other abbreviations:
EEV = end-energy consumption
7

8. Effects of initial package of measures:
development of total energy consumption & energy mix
PJ
Hydrogen
TWh
900
250
Biogas as fuel
Gas as fuel
800
Liquid biofuels
200
700
Aviation fuels
Diesel
600
Petrol
150
500
Biogas, sewage gas
Ambient heat
Solar heat
400
100
(Industrial) Waste
Wood
300
District heat*
200
50
Coal
Gas
100
(c) Prognos AG 2012
0
Other oil products
0
1960
1970
2000
2010
2020
2035
2050
Heating oil products or fuels
Electricity*
8

9. Effects of initial package of measures:
development of electricity supply and demand
TWh
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
(c) Prognos 2012
20
bestehende Wasserkraftwerke
Existing hydropower plants
Existing fossil-fuelled power plants
bestehende fossile KW
New fossil-fuelled
neue fossile WKK power plants
New nuclear power plants
neue Kernkraftwerke
10
neue Wasserkraftwerke
New hydropower plants
Existing purchase rights
bestehende Bezugsrechte
New renewable energy
neue Erneuerbare*
New imports
neue Importe
bestehende Kernkraftwerke
Existing nuclear power plants
Existing renewable energy
bestehende Erneuerbare*
New cogeneration plants
neue Kombikraftwerke
Gross demand
Bruttonachfrage
0
2000
2005
2010
2015
2020
2025
2030
coupled und ungekoppelt
*) gekoppeltand uncoupled
2035
2040
2045
2050
Hydrological Jahr
Hydrologischesyear
Electricity supply, “Political Measures” scenario, option “C&E”
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10. Measures relating to energy efficiency:
key elements
Buildings
Industry and
services
Increase in
CO2 fee
and
strengthening
of buildings
programme
Target
agreements in
accordance
with
Parliamentary
Initiative 12.400
Mobility
Electrical
appliances
Electricity
suppliers
More
stringent
CO2 emission
regulations
Efficiency
and
consumption
regulation
Efficiency
target for
electricity
suppliers
Informative
measure:
More stringent
model energy
provisions of the
cantons
10

11. SwissEnergy: measures
• All voluntary activities and measures aimed at supporting energy
efficiency and use of renewable energy in Energy Strategy 2050
to be placed under the umbrella of SwissEnergy.
• Expansion and promotion of programme
• Training initiative: training and further education in the energy
sector
• Promotion of technology transfer
• Quality assurance in renewable energy systems
• SwissEnergy for municipalities
11

12. “Coordinated Energy Research” action plan
Focus of support in 4 main areas:
1. Increase in capacity for energy research (teams)
2. Development of the Swiss Competence Centres for Energy
Research (SCCER)
(including efficiency, networks, electricity and heat storage, electricity
from renewable energy, mobility, biomass)
3. Competitive funding for research projects (Commission for
Technology and Innovation, CTI)
4. Promotional activities of the Swiss National Science Foundation
(SNSF) (National Research Programmes, National Centres of
Competence in Research, SNSF professorships)
Adopted by Parliament in spring 2013.
12

13. Socio-economic interdisciplinary research program
Energy-Economy-Society (EWG)
Efficient use of research budget (approx. 1.5 Mio CHF/a)
Support of socio-economic studies
Applied research to develop new models and methods
in energy economics
Policy-oriented research as a basis for regulation
Individual, close project supervision
Close coordination with other research programs and
institutions
Communication, discussion and networking events
Connect information and people
13

14. EWG - From Theory to Policies and Practice
Organisations,
energy
industry
Federal state,
Cantons,
municipalities
Politicians,
journalists,
stakeholders
A multiplicity of:
• Target groups
• Requirements
• Communication
channels
EWGResearcher
Researcher
SCCER,
SNSF, CTI,
EF-ZH
14

15. Example: Smart Metering Impact Assessment
Published in 2012
13 authors und 8 institutions
Technical, economical and legal
assessment
Support from 2 research programs and 1
employee from the BFE section “Grids”
Interdisciplinary report which discusses the
important issues regarding smart metering
rollout and draws clear conclusions.
Input for the Electricity Networks Strategy and
the Smart Grid Roadmap.
15

16. Adaptive and time-of-use pricing schemes for smart
technology integration: prospective study in the Leman region
• Research questions:
– What are the available time-varying electricity pricing schemes in the context of
a development of smart-grid technologies?
– What is the potential for these tariffs to realise load-shifting and/or load-shedding?
– Would these tariffs encourage the penetration of battery and plug-in hybrid
electric vehicles?
• Methodology:
– Conjoint analysis, game theory, bottom-up multi-energy techno-economic model
• Expected contributions (by mid 2014):
– Survey to evaluate the attitude of households concerning their future
participation to demand-response mechanisms and their appetence for storage
in plug-in electric vehicles.
– Quantifying the effects of integrating a behavioural component in technoeconomic models. Case study in the Leman region energy sector.
– First explorations of nodal pricing schemes.
16

17. Flexi: Potential for a flexible electricity demand
• Research questions:
– What is the potential for a flexible electricity demand of the households
in order to maximise the local consumption of PV generation
– How can consumption be influenced by increasing the demand between
11-15 when PV production is high?
– How can household consumption be affected by the provision of
information on consumption and by monetary incentives?
• Methodology:
– Questionnaire and econometric analysis
– Field study with 300 households in Cernier
• Expected contributions (by end of 2015):
– Quantification how much of the household electricity demand can be
covered with local PV generation by the use of smart technologies
– Cost-benefit-analysis of a flexible demand for the integration of solar
energy into the grid
17

18. An Evaluation of the Impact of Energy Efficiency Policies
on Residential Electricity Demand in Switzerland
• Research questions:
– How responsive is the residential electricity demand, at the aggregated
and disaggregated levels, to a change in the electricity price?
– What is the impact of different energy efficiency programmes on
electricity demand?
• Methodology:
– Unique household survey and a survey of Swiss utilities
– Econometric methods, demand estimation including, e.g. instrumental
variables and difference-in-differences (policy evaluation)
• Expected contributions (by end of 2014):
– An updated estimate of the price elasticity of residential electricity
demand at the disaggregated and aggregated levels
– Evaluation of demand-side management programmes and their impact
on electricity demand
18

19. Rebound Effects
• Research question:
– What types of economic, socio-psychologic and regulatory factors lead to a
change in energy consumption?
– In what areas do politically enforced energetic measures lead to socio-psychological
and behavioural relevant dynamic effects that influence energy consumption?
– In what areas do rebound-effects occur? What causes them?
– What rebound-risks could arise due to the implementation of the energy strategy
2050?
– Is there a need for action? Are there additional measures needed?
• Methodology:
– Literature analysis, Analysis of energy-saving measures in the energy strategy 2050
• Expected contributions (by autumn 2013):
– A comprehensive analysis about behavioural-economic and socio-psychological
potentials and risks related to the policy measures as outlined in the energy strategy
2050
– Recommendations for further actions to control rebound-effects
19

20. Energy Elasticities and the Rebound Effect
• Research question:
– How do energy use patterns look like in Switzerland?
– More precisely, what are:
• Substitution and cross-price elasticities (elasticities between energy
and other factors and elasticities between different energy sources /
services)
• Own-price and income elasticities of different energy sources / services
• Energy efficiency elasticities
rebound effect (efficiency elasticities of
selected energy services)
• Methodology:
– Econometric estimations using a translog cost function and a logistic
function to present factor shares
• Expected contributions (by early 2015):
– A comprehensive assessment of energy use patterns in Switzerland
– A method based on econometric analysis to estimate rebound effects via
efficiency elasticities of selected energy services in Switzerland
20

21. Energy-Using Durables: Driving Forces of Purchase Decisions/
Development of a decision model explaining purchase of energy consuming
durables
• Research questions:
– How do people proceed when they decide to purchase electric devices?
– How strongly do consumers take energy consumption and energy labels into
account? What do consumers say about energy labeling?
– Do consumers of energy-using durables in fact misoptimize?
– What are the driving forces of misoptimization?
– Which one of the potential forces, imperfect information, inattention, or
credit constraints, is the most important cause of misoptimization?
– Are there observable consumers’ characteristics that correlate with the degree
of misoptimization?
• Methodology:
– Survey at the point of sale, concomitant online experiment
• Expected contributions (by early 2015):
– A better understanding of what drives purchasing decisions of energy
consuming durables
– Provision of new insights in how purchase behavior of durable goods should be
modeled
21

22. Conclusions
• The promotion of energy efficiency is one of the key elements of
the energy strategy 2050
• There is a need for behavioural change in order to reach the energy
efficiency goals
• Behavioural change within the energy strategy 2050 can be reached
by:
– awareness raising (labelling, information, consulting
SwissEnergy)
– financial incentives (such as CO2 tax, target agreements,
steering mechanisms, building program)
– obligations (such as white certificates)
– standards (regarding CO2 emissions and electric appliances)
• Energy research is intensified and supports policy measures and
technological change in order to reach the targets of the energy
strategy 2050
22

23. Thank you for your attention!
23

24. BACK-UP
24

25. Energy policy: main objectives
Supply security
Technical safety
Environmental compatibility
Economic viability
25

26. Distribution of tasks and responsibilities in the
energy sector
Energy policy (Article 89, Swiss Federal Constitution):
• Federal government and cantons are responsible for energy supply and for
economic and efficient energy use.
• Federal government specifies the principles governing the use of domestic
and renewable energy and energy consumption.
• Federal government specifies regulations governing energy consumption of
systems, vehicles and appliances.
• Measures relating to consumption of energy in buildings are primarily the
responsibility of the cantons.
Energy industry:
Energy industry is responsible for the country’s energy supply
(Article 4, paragraph 2, Swiss Federal Energy Act).
Nuclear energy:
Federal government is responsible for legislation governing nuclear energy
(Article 90, Swiss Federal Constitution).
26

27. 2050 energy perspectives: three scenarios
"Business as
Usual" scenario
• Continuation of previous policy
• Autonomous technological progress
similar to that of the past 30 years
"Political
Measures of the
Federal Council"
scenario
• Depiction of political measures of the
Federal Council
= initial package of measures
• Utilisation of existing technologies
"New Energy
Policy" scenario
• Target: per capita energy consumption to
result in maximum of 1.5 tonnes CO2 in
2050
• This target is in line with international
consensus regarding energy policy
priorities
27

28. Initial package of Energy Strategy 2050 measures:
key elements
1. Consumption and expansion targets in Federal Energy Act
2. Measures relating to energy efficiency
3. Measures relating to renewable energy
4. Measures relating to fossil-fuelled power plants
5. Measures relating to electricity networks
(others to follow in new electricity networks strategy)
6. Continuation of pilot and demonstration programme
Introduction of flagship programme
7. Strengthening of SwissEnergy programme
8. No more licence applications for nuclear power plants
9. Ban on reprocessing of spent fuel elements
28

29. Some elements to be prioritised through Parliamentary
Initiative 12.400
Parliamentary initiative launched by CESPE-N (Committee for
Environment, Spatial Planning and Energy of the National Council)
•
Expected to enter into force on 1 January 2014
(subject to referendum)
Main amendments to Federal Energy Act
•
Increase in maximum network surcharge to 1.5 cents/kWh
•
Partial to full refund for electricity-intensive companies
(electricity costs ≥ 5%)
•
Own use (explicitly) laid down in Energy Act
•
One-time remuneration for small photovoltaic systems below 10
kW; free choice of system for photovoltaic facilities between 10
and 30 kW
29

30. SwissEnergy programme to support effectiveness of
initial package of measures
SwissEnergy:
•
To function as information and advice platform in the
energy sector; also as mechanism for networking
know-how owners, intermediaries and users in the
energy sector
•
To act as lever for good projects to be developed to
market maturity – and as a platform for new ideas
•
To function as a further education hub in the energy
sector
Elimination of non-price-related obstacles and associated
transaction costs
Increase in SwissEnergy budget (from 26 million Swiss francs a
year to 55 million)
30

31. SwissEnergy as an integral component of the
Energy Strategy 2050
• All voluntary and other measures aimed at supporting
energy efficiency and use of renewable energy in Energy
Strategy 2050 to be placed under the umbrella of
SwissEnergy.
• SwissEnergy is the central platform for networking of all
partners (trade and industry, environment, consumption,
public sector [cantons, cities, municipalities]).
• Focus is on sensitisation, information, advice, training and
further education, quality assurance.
• Programme budget therefore to be increased (from 26 to 55
million Swiss francs per annum).
31

32. Socio-economic interdisciplinary research program
Energy-Economy-Society (EWG)
32

33. Current EWG-projects concerning behavioural change
• Adaptive and time-of-use pricing schemes for smart technology
integration: prospective study in the Leman region (Ordecsys)
• Flexi: Potential for a flexible power demand (Planair, University of
Neuchatel, EPFL)
• An Evaluation of the Impact of Energy Efficiency Policies on
Residential Electricity Demand in Switzerland (CEPE, ETH Zurich)
• Rebound Effects (econcept)
• Energy Elasticities and the Rebound Effect (University of Basel)
• Energy-Using Durables: Driving Forces of Purchase Decisions/
Development of a decision model explaining purchase of energy
consuming durables (ETH Zürich)
33