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Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. operates MCX, India's leading commodity futures exchange, and has recently going public.
We are a firm of independent analysts based in Mumbai, India. Our research is truly independent, since we are not affiliated with any i-bank.
We introduce herewith a new presentation format - 'Fusion of a Research Report and a Financial Model' - 'possibly' for the first time in the global research community. Please excuse us, if you've seen a similar format earlier! Please refer the Disclaimer sheet.
This research report-cum-financial model contains a wealth of information about commodity futures exchanges as an industry, the regulatory environment in India, trading volumes, business model, strengths, financials and earnings estimates of MCX, and global peer financial highlights and valuations. This document is an unlocked spreadsheet and is print-ready.
Bonus: our proprietary 'IPO Analysis Checklist' is included.
We believe this report-cum-customizable model will remain relevant all the time, and across geographies. Just plug in the current stock price, make changes in underlying assumptions and arrive at your own earnings estimates and valuations, incl. DCF, and your own target price!
This report cum model can be used as a template by US based investors / analysts tracking commodity futures exchanges, such as ICE and CBOE.
2. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Checklist of Data Points relevant to the Analysis of the IPO
Sr. Name of Data Point Data for MCX
No.
1 Year of Incorporation 2002
2 Year of Commencement of Operations 2003
3 No. of years of track record 8
4 Management background and expertise, if any Promoted by Financial Technologies
5 Focus segments Commodity futures trading
6 Segment information - revenues, EBIT margins, profits No segments
7 Geographical breakup of revenues, if any None
8 % of Revenues coming from group companies, if any Some transactions with FTIL
9 Whether present in any unrelated business No
10 Market share within industry ~87% share of trading volumes
11 Whether inorganic growth contemplated Not indicated
12 Promoters’ average cost of acquisition of the company’s shares, pre-IPO Low vis-à-vis IPO price
13 Extent of dilution of promoters' stake via the IPO 5.2%
14 Names of pre-IPO investors See "Shareholdings" worksheet
15 Pre-IPO investors’ average cost of acquisition (adjusted for bonus issue) FID: `480 per share (in 2006)
16 Pricing of Investments by pre-IPO investors within 12 months before IPO Does not apply
17 Whether any pre-IPO investor exiting partly or fully via IPO Yes, see "Shareholdings" worksheet
18 Revenue mix for last 5 years Does not apply
19 Client concentration data Does not apply
20 Order book position Does not apply
Utilization of IPO proceeds
21 Breakup of Capex into plant, buildings, etc. No fresh issue, no funds infusion
22 Status of machinery required, ordered and received as of RHP date Does not apply
23 Amount to be utilised for non-critical purposes Does not apply
24 Gap in fund raising programme if any (IPO + Debt - Capex) Does not apply
Expansion project
25 Time lag between date of IPO and completion of expansion project Does not apply
3. Financials
26 Consolidated and Standalone P&L, Bal Sheet for last 3 / 5 full years See relevant worksheets
27 Consolidated and Standalone P&L, Bal Sheet for latest 3 / 6 months See relevant worksheets
28 Quality of disclosures Good
29 Ratio analysis Good margins, see relevant worksheets
30 EV computation See relevant worksheets
31 EPS computation See relevant worksheets
32 Comments on Financials Good growth trajectory
33 Peer comparison
- Installed Capacities, production, utilisation See relevant worksheets
- Market shares See relevant worksheets
Post-listing
34 Free float - absolute no. of shares 37,738,794
4. Comments
The gap between date of incorporation and commencement of ops should not be too wide
Professional qualifications and relevant experience of management
Identify relationships that can hamper profitability
Should not have unrelated diversifications
The market leadership position can result in a valuation premium
Likely impact in terms of equity dilutions or higher leverage
Mention specifically in Exec Summary, highlight huge discount to IPO price
Mention if dilution is substantial
Highlight in case of good VC / PE names
Mention specifically in Exec Summary, highlight huge discount to IPO price
Mention specifically in Exec Summary, highlight huge discount to IPO price
Since not a positive sign, highlight if substantial
Provide table
Provide table
Review revenue visibility over next 2 years
Highlight in case of gap between required, ordered and received
General corporate purposes, etc.
Highlight if substantial
To determine how soon cash flows will begin to kick in
5. Return ratios, turnover ratios, others
Consider Mcap post issue, cash and debt as of latest bal sheet, annualise EBITDA
Make estimates, else annualise quarterly / half yearly profit, take post IPO equity
Highlight revenue growth, dramatic changes in margins, leverage, ROE etc.
Follow identical EPS computation for peers
Mention period of financial statements clearly, below the comparison table
Highlight if no. of free float shares too small - exit may be difficult for QIBs
6. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
IPO Highlights
Mode of Issue Offer for Sale by Selling Shareholders
Issue Size (Amount) at floor / cap price `5.53bn (~$112.3mn) / `6.63bn (~$134.7mn)
Issue Size (No. of Shares) 6.427mn Equity Shares of `10 each
Equity Dilution 12.6% of Equity Capital
Price Band `860 - 1032 per Equity Share
Subscription Period February 22 - 24, 2012
BRLMs Edelweiss, Citigroup, Morgan Stanley
Grading 5/5 (CRISIL)
Market Cap (at floor/cap price) `43.9bn ($891mn)/ `52.6bn ($1.07bn)
Free Float Market Cap (at floor/cap price) `32.5bn ($659mn)/ `38.9bn ($791mn)
Listing The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) only
7. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Executive Summary
Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (MCEIL) operates MCX, the predominant, No. 1 commodity futures exchange in India, which
1
offers trading in a wide range of commodity futures (49 commodities as of December 31, 2011).
MCX is the also the fifth largest commodity futures exchange globally, in terms of the number of contracts traded and among the
2
leading commodity exchanges in the world, in terms of trading volumes of certain commodities.
MCEIL has been promoted by Financial Technologies India Ltd. (FTIL), a leading software developer in India, which is a technical
3 service provider to automated electronic markets in the areas of foreign exchange, commodities, debts, treasuries, securities, banking
and insurance.
The rising popularity of commodity futures trading in India can be gauged by the fact that while the NSE’s cash market segment saw
a decline in trading volumes from `36,577bn in 2010, to `27,633bn in 2011, the value of commodity futures contracts traded on the
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MCX went up from `86,969bn in 2010, to `149,329bn in 2011. Though not strictly comparable, the average daily trading volumes on
the MCX are also substantially higher than in the cash segment on the NSE.
We therefore view MCEIL as an ideal play on the fast growing commodities futures trading segment in India. While commodities
5 futures may involve some amount of risk, an investment in the underlying exchange itself, where these futures contracts get traded,
is an ideal hedge against the risks associated with futures trading.
While the IPO is via an offer for sale by FTIL and some institutional investors, all of these are only partly reducing their stake, and not
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exiting the company fully. As such the proceeds of the IPO will not go to the company, nor is there an equity dilution.
The last issue by MCEIL to an outside investor for cash was to FID Funds Mauritius Ltd. (a Fidelity International affiliate) at an ex-
7 bonus price of `480 per share, in February, 2006. No major equity dilution has taken place during the last 3 years, except allotments
made to the company’s ESOP trust, and a bonus issue (1:4) in March, 2011.
8 Investment Positives
a Dominant market share within commodity futures exchanges in India.
Rising trading volumes: Value of futures contracts traded at MCX grew at 52.3% CAGR between 2007 and 2011. Incidentally, trading
b volumes at MCX are much higher than those in the capital market segment at NSE, though the former is a derivatives exchange, while
the latter is a cash equities trading exchange.
Stock or futures exchanges are inherently profitable the world over, since revenues far outstrip costs, leading to high EBITDA
margins. We believe MCX’s business model is almost risk-free, since sizeable revenues are assured as long as trading volumes remain
c
robust. Given its favourable variable cost structure, high EBITDA margins can be considered sustainable. In addition, sizeable
recurring ‘other income’ will continue to add to profitability.
8. In spite of its focus on technology, MCEIL’s recurring capital expenditure in fixed assets (`8.40Cr, `23.56Cr and `17.89Cr in FY10,
d FY11 and FY12 YTD respectively) is low vis-à-vis its balance sheet size. We believe MCEIL may either not need to invest heavily in
capex going forward, or may be comfortably able to meet the same, from operating cash flows.
MCEIL is a zero-debt, cash-rich company, with a strong reserves position. We expect it to continue to enjoy comfortable return ratios,
e i.e., RoE and RoCE, going ahead (see sheet 'Consolidated P&L' ). We believe MCX may not require a major funds infusion in the next
couple of years, by virtue of its sustainable, recurring net operating cash inflows.
f The fact that there is no listed peer for MCX in India, may possibly lead to some valuation premium on listing.
9 Investment Concerns
Over 90% of MCEIL’s revenues (96.1% in 9 months to December 31, 2011) constitute transaction fees, which are directly linked to
i trading volumes. As such, the company’s revenue generating ability may be hampered in case of reduction in trading volumes.
However, as stated above, MCEIL continues to generate sizeable, recurring other income.
Just four commodities, viz., silver, gold, crude oil and copper, account for over 80% of MCX’s turnover by value (90.4% in 9 months to
ii December 31, 2011). We view this concentration as a risk, in case prices of any of these commodities, already at high levels, were to
crash.
Under Indian regulations, foreign institutional investors (FIIs), banks and mutual funds cannot trade on commodity exchanges. Also,
trading in commodities options is prohibited. This may suppress the valuation premium on the IPO. However these very concerns
iii
can well become kickers for the stock going forward, if and when the authorities permit these investors to trade on the MCX and also
permit options trading.
The IPO will list on the BSE only. At a structural level, absence of dual listing (NSE as well as BSE) may possibly impact price
discovery on listing, and cap future price performance, though not immediately on listing, since it has been observed historically that
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stocks listed only on the BSE see lesser liquidity and poorer price performance over a period of time, vis-à-vis stocks listed on both
exchanges.
Based on our EPS estimates of `55.51 (FY12E) and `67.68 (FY13E), the IPO was priced at 18.6x FY12E and 15.2x FY13E on the basis
of the cap price. Global leading commodity futures exchanges trade in the range of 9.9x - 16.6x CY12E (see worksheet 'Global Peers' ).
10 However by virtue of the relatively low revenue base vis-à-vis global peers, MCEIL will see higher revenue growth in % terms. We
had a Subscribe rating on the IPO. The rating will change on listing, depending on the valuations (absolute, and relative to global
peers) post-listing.
9. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Commodity Futures Industry Overview
Futures contracts are derivative products that provide means for hedging and asset allocation. The asset underlying futures
contracts could be a physical asset (e.g. agricultural commodity) or a financial asset (e.g. interest rates, foreign exchange products
1 and stock indices). A commodity (as traded on an exchange) is an undifferentiated product whose market value arises from the
owner‘s right to sell the product rather than the right to use the product. Commodities traded globally on exchanges include crude
oil, gold, copper and agricultural products such as wheat, corn and soybeans.
Commodity futures contracts are commitments to make or accept delivery of a specified quantity and quality of a commodity at a
set time in the future for a price established at the time the commitment is made. The buyer agrees to take delivery of the
underlying commodity, while the seller agrees to make delivery. In practice, futures markets are rarely used to actually buy or sell
2
the physical commodity being traded and only a small number of contracts traded worldwide each year result in delivery of the
underlying commodity. Instead, traders generally offset (a buyer will liquidate by selling the contract, the seller will liquidate by
buying back the contract) their futures positions before their contracts mature.
Commodity futures contracts are primarily made available through a centralized trading or computerized matching process, with
bids and offers on each contract traded publicly. Through this process, a prevailing futures market price is reached for each
3
commodity futures contract, based primarily on the laws of anticipated supply and demand. Many markets abroad also offer trading
in options contracts in commodities.
The Global Commodity Futures Market
There are over 30 commodity futures and options exchanges worldwide that trade commodities ranging from energy, metals,
agriculture to livestock in countries including the United States, China, Japan, Malaysia and the United Kingdom. (Source: Futures
a Industry Association (FIA), FI magazine September 2011) . The commodity exchanges trade in physical commodity products, as well
as in financial instruments. Trading is mostly done in futures and options contracts. Spot trading calls for immediate delivery of a
specified commodity and is often used to obtain the goods necessary to fulfil a seller‘s delivery obligations under futures contracts.
According to the FIA Report, strong levels of growth were seen in the trading volume of commodity futures and options, especially
b
those relating to non-precious metals, agricultural, energy and precious metals commodities.
10. Recent times have seen a distinct shift futures and options trading from non-precious metals and agri commodities, to precious
metals and energy. The trading volume of futures and options contracts of precious metals rose by 49.8% to 127.49mn contracts for
c the six months ended June 30, 2011 y-o-y, and that of futures and options contracts of energy products rose by 16.0% to 416.24mn
contracts for the same period. The trading volume of futures and options contracts of non-precious metals decreased by 37.7% to
190.37mn, while that of agricultural commodities decreased by 9.1% to 529.59mn contracts during the same period.
Metals Futures
Metal futures contracts include a wide variety of metal commodities, classified into precious metals (incl. gold, silver and platinum)
and non-precious metals (incl. lead, aluminium, copper and zinc). Gold is the most popular precious metal in metal futures contracts
trading. Trading in gold futures provides individual investors with an easy and convenient alternative to the traditional means of
investing in gold, such as bullion, coins, and mining stocks. In addition, a broad cross-section of companies in the gold industry, from
mining companies to fabricators of finished products, can use gold futures contracts to hedge their price risk.
Energy Futures
Energy futures contracts include energy commodities such as crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline and coal. Over the past
several years, the markets for energy commodities trading have been characterised by rapid growth and high liquidity, which can be
attributed to:
· increased market acceptance of the value of commodity futures as risk management tools,
· greater access to futures markets through technological innovation,
· increased price fluctuation in crude oil and natural gas,
· increased demand for commodities as a distinct asset class for portfolio diversification,
· increased participation in energy markets by financial institutions, such as banks and hedge funds,
· increased awareness of the ability to obtain or hedge market exposure through the use of futures and options contracts,
· changes in the regulatory environment of energy markets around the world, specifically electricity and natural gas.
11. Caps on Foreign Investments in the Commodity Exchanges Sector in India
Foreign investment is permitted in commodity exchanges with the following restrictions:
a) Foreign direct investment up to 49.0% is allowed under the Government route as follows:
(i) Investment by registered foreign institutional investors under the Portfolio Investment Scheme will be limited to 23.0%,
(ii) Investment as FDI under the FDI Scheme will be limited to 26.0%,
b) Foreign institutional investors’ purchases shall be restricted to the secondary market only,
c) No non-resident investor or entity, including persons acting in concert, shall hold more than 5.0% of the equity in commodity
exchanges.
Further, foreign direct investment (FDI) is allowed in commodity exchanges only with the prior approval of the Foreign Investment
Promotion Board (FIPB). Furthermore, transfer of shares between non-residents and residents are freely permitted, subject to
certain restrictions.
Other Commodity Exchanges in India
Currently there are 21 commodity exchanges and associations in India, which are recognised by the Government of India and
authorised to organise and regulate futures trading in various commodities.
Of these exchanges, 16 are regional or localised exchanges, which are spread across India. Most of these regional exchanges practice
the open-outcry system. Some of these regional exchanges trade in just a few commodities.
The five national multi-commodity exchanges, namely MCX, NCDEX, NMCE, ICEX and ACE offer electronic trading in numerous
commodity futures contracts. Four of these exchanges, viz., MCX, NCDEX, NMCE and ICEX, accounted for 98.8% of the turnover of
commodity futures contracts traded in India during FY10. These five national multi-commodity exchanges (including ACE, which
was started in October 2010) accounted for 99.4% and 99.7% of the turnover of commodity futures contracts traded in India for
FY11 and the nine months ended December 31, 2011, respectively.
National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange Ltd. (NCDEX)
NCDEX commenced operations in December 2003. According to FMC data, 34 and 29 commodities were traded on NCDEX for FY11
and 9 months ended Dec. 31, 2011, respectively.
National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. (NMCE)
NMCE was India‘s first demutualised national multi-commodity exchange, having commenced futures trading in November 2002.
According to FMC data, 24 and 26 commodities were traded on NMCE for FY11 and 9 months ended Dec. 31, 2011, respectively.
12. Indian Commodity Exchange Ltd. (ICEX)
ICEX received FMC approval to begin operations as a national bourse in October 2009. ICEX commenced trading operations in
November, 2009. According to FMC data, 14 and 13 commodities were traded on ICEX for FY11 and 9 months ended Dec. 31, 2011,
respectively.
ACE Derivatives & Commodity Exchange Ltd. (ACE)
Ace Derivatives and Commodity Exchange, which transformed from a regional exchange to a national multi-commodities futures
trading platform, was launched in October, 2010. Six and eight commodities were traded on ACE for FY11 and 9 months ended Dec.
31, 2011, respectively.
Industry Growth in India
Commodity futures trading in India has grown multi-fold since the Government of India permitted futures trading in commodities in
April, 2003. The total value of commodities futures traded in India in FY11 was `119,489bn, up ~90x the value of commodity
futures contracts traded in FY04, which was `1,294bn. Commodity futures trading volumes have risen at a CAGR of 90.9% between
FY04 and FY11.
There are currently over 60 commodities futures that have been approved by the FMC for trading during the calendar year 2011
with gold, silver, crude oil, copper, zinc, nickel and natural gas comprising the majority of the trading turnover.
Growth Drivers for the Industry
Economic growth
Government of India initiatives to modernize commodity futures markets
Introduction of new commodity classes, particularly intangibles such as freight, rainfall and commodity indices
Increased investor participation
Technological advancements
Introduction of Options: Options trading volumes in the global derivatives markets constituted around 50.8% of the total
futures and options volumes traded for the six months ended June 30, 2011. If trading in commodity options are permitted by the
Government, it may lead to increased volumes and overall growth in the Indian commodity derivatives market.
Certain types of investors precluded from commodities trading; options too prohibited
Under the current regulations in India, foreign institutional investors (FIIs), banks and mutual funds cannot trade on commodity
exchanges. Also, trading in commodities options is prohibited.
While this remains a concern from the point of view of existing investors, we believe this can in fact be a driver of the stock’s
valuation going forward, in case the authorities permit these investor classes to trade on commodity exchanges and also permit
trading in commodity options.
13. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Comparison of Volumes on MCX and NSE
MCX NSE
Month Year Commodity Futures Volumes Cash Equities Volumes
(`Bn) (USDBn) (`Bn) (USDBn)
Jan 2010 5,627 114 3,384 69
Feb 2010 6,170 125 2,451 50
Mar 2010 6,279 128 2,862 58
Apr 2010 6,035 123 2,766 56
May 2010 7,036 143 2,846 58
Jun 2010 7,536 153 2,861 58
Jul 2010 7,528 153 2,786 57
Aug 2010 7,580 154 3,120 63
Sep 2010 7,628 155 3,299 67
Oct 2010 8,477 172 3,605 73
Nov 2010 9,059 184 3,640 74
Dec 2010 8,015 163 2,957 60
Jan 2011 9,198 187 2,673 54
Feb 2011 9,121 185 2,665 54
Mar 2011 11,203 228 2,557 52
Apr 2011 11,614 236 2,283 46
May 2011 11,481 233 2,339 48
Jun 2011 10,487 213 2,225 45
Jul 2011 12,453 253 2,300 47
Aug 2011 17,674 359 2,353 48
Sep 2011 17,682 359 2,353 48
Oct 2011 12,018 244 1,933 39
Nov 2011 13,992 284 2,063 42
Dec 2011 12,405 252 1,889 38
Jan 2012 12,209 248 2,369 48
15. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd.
Analyst’s Note
This research note attempts to capture the essence of the business model of MCX and some of the investment positives and
concerns. Investors are advised to refer the red herring for the IPO, for a better understanding of the company, its business model
and risk factors.
Company Background
MCEIL was incorporated in April, 2002 as a private limited company. FTIL acquired the shareholding of the erstwhile promoters
in August, 2003. MCX commenced online futures trading in November 2003.
Business Model Overview
MCX is the leading commodities exchange in India, based on value of commodity futures contracts traded.
Peculiarities of Business Model
Contracts traded on the MCX (by value) grew at CAGR of 52.3% during FY07-11, from `2,729,821Cr in FY07, to
`14,932,852Cr in FY11. Recent growth in the value of contracts traded on the MCX is largely attributable to growth in the
trading volume of key commodities traded on MCX such as gold, silver, base metals and crude oil, the introduction of new
commodity futures contracts, increased liquidity in the commodities market and the expansion of MCX’s market as also the
resulting increase in its membership base.
Concentration of four commodities
Turnover of commodity futures contracts traded on MCX (by value) has been
concentrated in silver, gold, crude oil and copper, as per following table.
FY11 9 mths to
Dec.'11
Silver 27.4% 38.2%
Gold 25.1% 27.5%
Crude Oil 17.9% 15.9%
Copper 11.6% 8.8%
Total 82.0% 90.4%
Any significant decline in the prices of gold, crude oil and silver may therefore impact the futures turnover volumes of
these commodities on the MCX, impacting its financial performance in turn.
16. We believe gold and silver, in particular, have seen an unprecedented run-up in prices in the last two years. Any correction
in these therefore, may likely impact MCX’s volumes.
MCX’s trading volumes may be affected primarily by:
development of new commodity futures contracts on competing exchanges
volatility in commodity prices
availability of more electronic trading platforms
possible regulatory changes
negative publicity and regulatory investigations
Subsidiary / Associate Companies
Country of Proportion of Ownership Interest
Name of Subsidiary / Associate Co.
incorporation (as at Dec-31-2011)
Multi Commodity Exchange India 100%
Clearing Corporation Ltd. (MCX CCL) India 100%
SME Exchange of India Ltd. (SME) India 51%
MCX-SX Clearing Corporation Ltd. (MCX SXCCL) India 26%
Dubai Gold and Commodities Exchange DMCC (DGCX) U.A.E. 5%
MCX Stock Exchange Ltd. (MCX-SX) India 5%
Global Rankings
We note that the MCX compares well with global derivatives exchanges, in terms of volumes of commodity futures contracts. It was ranked
9th among global derivatives exchanges and 5th among global commodity futures exchanges.
Rankings Commodity 2011 2011
among Futures (Jan - June) (Jan - June)
Name of Commodity Futures Exchange
Derivatives Rankings Jan - Volume (mn Change y-o-y
Exchanges (Jan - June 2011 contracts) (%)
CME Group (includes CBOT & NYMEX) 2 1 352.96 18.1
Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange 11 2 217.58 -0.4
ICE Group (incl. U.S., U.K. and Canadian Markets) 12 3 159.09 18.4
Shanghai Futures Exchange 14 4 128.54 -57.2
Multi Commodity Exchange of India 9 5 127.77 41.5
17. Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd. `: Indian Rupee Crore = 10 million
IPO Details 49.232 per USD
Price per
No. of Shares Amt. (`Cr)
share (`)
IPO size 10,000,000
New shares 0 0.00 * Assuming pricing at cap price of ` 1032/share
Shares being sold by selling shareholders * 6,427,378 1032 663.31
6,427,378 663.31 134.73 552.8 112.28
Diluted Equity (no. of shares) At Cap price At Floor price
Pre-IPO 50,998,369 50,998,369
IPO new shares 0 0 -> dilution
Total No. of Shares post-IPO 50,998,369 50,998,369
No. of Shares (Cr) 5.100 5.100
IPO Price ` 1032 1032 1032 860
Market Cap (`Cr) 5263 4386
Market Cap ($mn) 1069 891
Earnings Estimates and Valuations (`Cr)
Particulars FY10 FY11 FY12E FY13E
Revenues 287.38 368.89 538.81 702.25
EBITDA 141.56 191.76 342.83 429.07
PAT 220.81 176.27 283.10 345.17
Pd up Equity 40.80 51.00 51.00 51.00
EPS (`) 54.12 34.56 55.51 67.68
P/e (x) 19.1 29.9 18.6 15.2
Book value (`) 170.79 166.44 218.35 277.90
P/b (x) 6.0 6.2 4.7 3.1
Price / Sales (x) 14.3 9.77 6.25