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The Irish banks and Eurozone
stability: Learning from the past,
       looking to the future

                Gregory Connor
     Department of Economics, Finance &
                  Accounting
    National University of Ireland, Maynooth
Economics During Interesting Times
One Key Objective of the Euro Currency
The Brittleness of the Euro Currency
              Regime
Do Not Mention Optimal Currency
            Areas!
One Reason Irish Financial Economists Were Pro-Euro
What Ireland Got Instead: Credit Oversupply and
          Negative Investment Returns
Actual Domestic Banking Sector
Aggregate Balance Sheet, Assets
Actual Domestic Banking Sector
Aggregate Balance Sheet, Liabilities
What Might Have Been…
Simulated Domestic Banking Sector
  Aggregate Balance Sheet, Assets
Simulated Domestic Banking Sector
Aggregate Balance Sheet, Liabilities
Simulation Constraints
Domestic Bank Sector Risk Profile
Changes in Net Foreign Borrowing
Annual One-Off GDP Impacts
Irish House Party, with Invited Guests
Cumulative GDP Impact to 2010
Curing Our Hangover
Extraordinary Liquidity Support from
              the ECB
Shrinking the Asset Side of the Irish
   Banking Sector Balance Sheet
Reality Returns to Property Prices
Not Building Houses Does Not Make
      Them Go Away Quickly
Mortgages in Arrears: A Potentially
           Deadly Risk
What Are We Paying For?
Will Ireland Make It Out of Debt?




Source: D. Cronin and K. Dowd, Central Bank of Ireland Working Paper 15/RT/11 2012
Can Irish Pharma and Tech Sectors
             Save Us?

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