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Brazil: The    3 Make or     2012 and
                                    Basics      Break Issues    Beyond




                          EXPORTING OHIO TO LATIN
                          AMERICA: A BRAZILIAN CASE
                          STUDY
dwilsonjdmba

dwilson@keglerbrown.com
                          David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
Exporting Ohio to Latin America: A
  Brazilian Case Study
Brazil: The Basics
    -Facts                                      P E S T
    -Opportunities
    -Risks

        3 Issues that could Make or Break your Brazilian Business Strategy
            -Organizational Structure
            -Labor
            -Regulation & Tax

                 2012 & Beyond
                     -Infrastructure
                     -Inflation & Currency
                     -Regulation

                                                    Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                      Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                    Issues
10 Seconds or LESS
   My name is . . .
   I’m with . . .
   And:
     One experience I had related to Brazil is . . .
     One question I have related to Brazil is . . .

     When I think of Brazil, I think of . . . business or non business related




                                                    Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                      Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                    Issues
Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
  Basics        Break      Beyond
                Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                     P E S T

                What are the Political, Economic, Social and Technological reasons
                to enter Brazil?
                                          export, manufacture, distribute, design . . .
   Political
       The ability of government to respond to and NOT create political risk
   Economic
       Macro trends, Currency risks
   Social
       The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply pressure to
        the company to change its behavior
   Technological
       Infrastructure, IP Protection, Government Incentives

                                                     Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                       Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                     Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                         P E S T

                                                                           The unit of measurement
Political Risk                                                                for political risk is
     -The ability of government to respond to political risk                       STABILITY
     -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk

    Government Structure
    Level of Corruption
    Appropriation Concerns
    Bureaucracy


                                                          Brazil: The   3 Make or      2012 and
                                                            Basics        Break         Beyond
                                                                          Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                                    P E S T

                                                                                      The unit of measurement
Political Risk                                                                           for political risk is
     -The ability of government to respond to political risk                                  STABILITY
     -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk

    Government Stability
         Stable Republic Since 1985
         Multiple Peaceful Elections
         Democratic Constitution
         Functioning Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches
         Multiple Party System
         Increasingly developed services: Fire, Police, EMS




                                                                     Brazil: The   3 Make or      2012 and
                                                                       Basics        Break         Beyond
                                                                                     Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                                                P E S T

                                                                                                  The unit of measurement
Political Risk                                                                                       for political risk is
     -The ability of government to respond to political risk                                              STABILITY
     -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk
    Level of Corruption
         Transparency International 2010 CPI index
             The abuse of entrusted power for private gain
             Perception of corruption in public sector
         2010 (most current
             USA: 22 of 180
                     Apx. 88th percentile
             Brazil: 69 of 180
                     Apx. 62nd percentile
         1995 (year 1 of CPI)                 Denmark*       USA    Brazil            China         India       Russia
             USA: 15 of 41                       1st         22nd    69th              78th          87th       154th
                     Apx. 63rd percentile
             Brazil: 36 of 41
                     Apx .13th percentile
         Rousseff Cleaning House
             Jettisoned 5 cabinet members since June

                                                                         Brazil: The           3 Make or      2012 and
                                                                           Basics                Break         Beyond
                                                                                                 Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                                  P E S T

                                                                                    The unit of measurement
Political Risk                                                                         for political risk is
     -The ability of government to respond to political risk                                STABILITY
     -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk

    Appropriation concerns
            Long history of privatization & recent commitments
            Talk of reviving old laws for a few categories
                    land restrictions on % of land in a district that foreigners may buy
                    1971 law found unconstitutional but is being revisited (no talk of taking land)




                                                                   Brazil: The   3 Make or      2012 and
                                                                     Basics        Break         Beyond
                                                                                   Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                         P E S T

                                                                           The unit of measurement
Political Risk                                                                for political risk is
     -The ability of government to respond to political risk                       STABILITY
     -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk

    Bureaucracy?




                                                          Brazil: The   3 Make or      2012 and
                                                            Basics        Break         Beyond
                                                                          Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                                                                       P E S T

   Largest Latin American economy
        7 largest in the World
   Developed financial markets                                                                                                Macro Trends
   Young workforce
        Brazil                      39.3%
        United States               30.5%
        China                       29.4%
   Increasing domestic demand
        Growing Middle Class
             Over 35 million Brazilians entered the middle class from 2003 to 2009
                         estimates predict an additional 20 million will climb the ladder by 2014
        Per Capita GDP larger than China or India
             Brazil                 $10,816
             China                  $4,382
             India                  $1,371
   Rich Commodities Base – Energy, Mining, Agribusiness
        Vies with Australia as worlds largest exporter of iron ore
        Fertile Land: 1/3rd global coffee, ½ of all global sugarcane exports, major world player in beef, poultry, soybeans and corn
        Recent oil field discovery 15bn to 70-100bn barrels
             NPV of this discovery is apx $500bn apx 20% of GDP
        Rainforest, Hydro




                                                                                                     Brazil: The   3 Make or            2012 and
                                                                                                       Basics        Break               Beyond
                                                                                                                     Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                               P E S T

   Currency

       General
           Weak exchange rate generally makes a country’s exports cheaper
                 Central banks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have recently intervened to
                  make their currencies cheaper
                 China continues to suppress the value of its currency to strengthen exports
       Brazilian Real
           1.59 end of August, crossed 1.9 (intraday) September
           Selling in September
                 Foreign investment attracted by high returns began to sell in September largely
                  due to fear of Greek crisis
                      notably Japan
                 Central bank lowered benchmark rate by .5%
           Many view the valuation as stabilizing after >45% increase since 2008


                                                               Brazil: The   3 Make or    2012 and
                                                                 Basics        Break       Beyond
                                                                               Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                                         P E S T

   Currency Risk
       Transaction exposure – commitment to make payment at future date
           Solutions:
                  Forward Contracts
                  Risk Sharing Agreements
                  Foreign Currency Options

       Translation exposure – accounting based changes in consolidated FS
                  Taking the value on 1 day and reporting on your statements
           Solutions:
                  Swap (assets, debts, and/or liabilities with someone else, e.g., a bank or another company)

       Economic exposure – non zero changes in expected cash flows due to changes in
        currency (real not just nominal)
           Solutions:
                  Diversification



                                                                      Brazil: The     3 Make or       2012 and
                                                                        Basics          Break          Beyond
                                                                                        Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                          P E S T


Social Risk                                                                How substantive is the stakeholder?

     -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply          How intense is the threat?

     pressure to the company to change its behavior


    Stakeholders
        Shareholders, NGOs, Interest Groups, Consumers, Local Communities. . .
    Factors
        Cultural Norms, Languages
             “Culture eats strategy for breakfast” – Oded Shenkar
        Demographics
        GINI index (inequality of income)
        Ethnic Conflict

                                                           Brazil: The   3 Make or           2012 and
                                                             Basics        Break              Beyond
                                                                           Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                 P E S T




                        Geert Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions
                            Power Distance
                            Individualism
                            Masculinity
                            Uncertainty Avoidance
                            Long-Term Orientation
                        www.geert-hofstede.com

                                 Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                   Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                 Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                          P E S T


Social Risk                                                                How substantive is the stakeholder?

     -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply          How intense is the threat?

     pressure to the company to change its behavior


    Solutions
        Decouple your brands / products
             Charge premium on specific brands for CSR projects, not all consumers
        Partner with NGOs
             Reputational benefit, they understand the industry and may help keep you up
              to date with shifts in pressure
        Admit Wrongs
             People are more likely to believe your CSR reports when you tell them what
              you are doing wrong (and how you addressing it)


                                                           Brazil: The   3 Make or           2012 and
                                                             Basics        Break              Beyond
                                                                           Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                            P E S T


Social Risk                                                                   How substantive is the stakeholder?

        -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply          How intense is the threat?

        pressure to the company to change its behavior


        Education
           Past
2000
- ½ Brazilian students graduated grade school
- 3 out of 4 adults were functionally illiterate

           Present
-Goal to reach OECD standard over next decade
-75,000 scholarships to attend world’s top
universities (only 9,000 a few months ago)




                                                              Brazil: The   3 Make or           2012 and
                                                                Basics        Break              Beyond
                                                                              Issues
Brazil: The Basics                                                                                  P E S T

   Technological
       Infrastructure
           Power
           Public Health
       IP Protection
           Codified IP law protected by the Brazilian Constitution
                  Industrial Property Law, Law No. 9279, as amended (May 15, 1996)(Braz).
                  Provides for contracts involving technology transfer, technical and scientific services, franchising and
                   protection against unfair competition
                  Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)
                         Federal agency in charge of regulating and registering patents, trademarks, industrial
                            designs, approving licensing and other agreements
                  Copyright Law, Law No. 9610, as amended (Feb 20, 1998)(Braz).
                         Regulates Brazilian Copyrights and some Software Law

           Rights are enforceable
                  Patent holder is entitled to prevent others from using, producing, selling, offering, or importing a
                   patented product or process
                  Patent holder is entitled to be indemnified for improper use
       Government Incentives


                                                                             Brazil: The      3 Make or         2012 and
                                                                               Basics           Break            Beyond
                                                                                                Issues
3 Issues that can Make or Break Your
Brazilian Business Strategy

    Entry Method & Organizational Structure




                            Labor




                               Regulation & Tax


                                          Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                            Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                          Issues
Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
  Wholly     Owned Subsidiaries

  Non-Equity     Alliance
    Licensing  agreements                   Stable Brazilian legal system leads
                                             to fairly predictable results – but
                                             you may not always like them
    Supply agreements
    Distribution agreements
    Non-Equity joint venture
          Heads of Agreement (Similar to US Memo of Understanding)


  Equity    Alliance
    Joint   venture

                                            Brazil: The         3 Make or          2012 and
                                              Basics              Break             Beyond
                                                                  Issues
Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
    Wholly owned subsidiary
        Foreign capital in Brazil treated quite liberally
        Current legislation does not distinguish between domestic & foreign owned
         companies
        Investments may be freely made & are not subject to any prior approval,
         license or authorization from authorities
              But must be registered with Central Bank’s online system
        No max or min limit on investment amount
              Levels if wish to employee non-Brazilians
        No max or min term for the investment (repatriate anytime)
        Amounts paid by a Brazilian company to a foreign investor are NOT subject
         to any withholding tax
              Amounts over the initial registration are generally treated as capital gains and
               subject to 15% tax (25% if investor resides in a tax haven)
    Foreign investors are free to use any of the available company forms


                                                            Brazil: The   3 Make or      2012 and
                                                              Basics        Break         Beyond
                                                                            Issues
Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
    Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)
    Sociedade Anônima (SA)
    Sociedade Simples
    Sociedade em Nome Coletivo
    Sociedade em Comandita Simples
    Sociedade em Comandita por ações
    Sociedade em Comum
    Sociedade em conta de Participação
    Associações
    Fundações
    Cooperativas
    Consórcio


                                          Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                            Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                          Issues
Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
      Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)
            Similar to US LLC
                 Liability limited to partner’s quotas
                       Quotas may be freely transferred according to the articles of association
                       May not be traded publicly
            Simplicity & Flexibility
            Reduced Maintenance Costs
            Less Formal Requirements
                  Must have at least 2 partners
                  Brazilian partners are not required
                  May be managed by one or more persons, partners or other entity
                       Manager must reside in Brazil
                         If foreign manager, must possess a permanent Brazilian Visa with authorization to act as manager
                           of a specific company
            Generally preferred for wholly owned subsidiaries
      Sociedade Anônima (SA)
            Similar to US Corporation
            May issue securities, debentures and may be publicly held
            Higher Maintenance Costs
            More formal requirements
            Generally preferred for ventures comprised of a large number of different shareholder groups



                                                                            Brazil: The         3 Make or       2012 and
                                                                              Basics              Break          Beyond
                                                                                                  Issues
Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
    Distributorship & Agency Relationships
        Brazilian agency relationships is governed by the Brazilian Civil Code and by
         special legislation, Law n. 4.886/1965
        Exclusivity is NOT presumed unless expressly established in an agency
         agreement
              However exclusivity is common and will likely be required by potential agents
              Exclusivity entitles the agent to compensation related to direct sales made by the
               company without assistance of the agent
        Termination
              There are specific enumerated “just” reasons for the termination of an agency
               agreement
              Termination is typically both difficult & costly
              Generally, an agent is entitled to no less that 1/12th of the total amount received
               during the time of agency or an amount equal to the monthly average
               compensation received multiplied by the remaining months left in the agency
               contract term.
              An agent is also generally entitled to reimbursement for investments, such as
               office rent and equipment expenses


                                                             Brazil: The   3 Make or     2012 and
                                                               Basics        Break        Beyond
                                                                             Issues
Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
    Joint Venture
        May be created with or without a joint company
              Contractual joint ventures between your LTDA/SA and a Brazilian
               company
              Low cost entry and exit to new markets, industries and industry
               segments
              Opportunity for learning
      Provides a contractual framework for operations without
       generating the problems associated with an agency relationship
      Enables each party to take full responsibility for its contribution to
       the venture while minimizing the issues associated with exclusivity
      Enables low cost entry and exit
              May later evolve into equity alliance


                                                       Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                         Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                       Issues
Entry Method & Organizational
Structure
   Should you vertically integrate?
       Some or all of the value chain, acquire rather than joint venture
   Transaction Costs
       Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due to high
        transaction specific investments?
       Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due to
        uncertainty and complexity?
   Capabilities
       Do you have valuable, rare and costly to imitate resources?
   Real Options
       To retain flexibility: exchanges characterized by high levels of
        uncertainty should not be vertically integrated
                         For additional information on this topic please reference: Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage Third
                         Edition, Jay B. Barney, 2007
                                                                         Brazil: The           3 Make or             2012 and
                                                                           Basics                Break                Beyond
                                                                                                 Issues
Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
  salary

Labor rights are outlined in the Brazilian Constitution, as well as
laws, decrees, provisional measures, ordinances and regulations,
international conventions and treaties (ratified by the Brazilian
government), company policies, Supreme Court decisions, Superior
Labor Court decisions and customs




                                                          Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                            Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                          Issues
Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
   Basic Principals
       Worker Protection: the worker is considered the weaker party in
        the relationship
       In labor-related conflicts, at any level or jurisdiction, whenever
        there is a doubt regarding evidence, the court’s decision will
        favor the worker
           The law most favorable to the worker will be applied
           The conditions most favorable to the worker will be presumed
       Actual facts prevail over written documents
       Protected salary (generally cannot lower an employee’s salary)
       Defense of workers honor and ethical code
       Nondiscriminatory practices
       Continuity of employment relationship

                                                   Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                     Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                   Issues
Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
   Direct agreements between employees and employers to resolve conflicts
    are not valid
       The Brazilian constitution provides the right to sue as an individual guarantee
       There are ways to settle
           Arbitration, union conciliation commissions. . .
           but they do NOT prevent the right of individual claims
   Every 12 months employees are entitled to 30 calendar days paid vacation
       In addition to the 13th salary (Christmas bonus equal to 1/12 the salary for
        each month of that year)
   Every month employer must deposit an amount = to 8% of employees
    salary into Unemployment Fund
       If employee is dismissed without cause, the employee may withdraw the amount
       Employer must pay a penalty equal to 40% of the amount and an additional
        10% to the government



                                                            Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                              Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                            Issues
Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
   Not at will
       30 days prior notice (some agreements may require longer period of time)
       Notice shall specify whether the 30 days must be worked or not worked
           If worked may be absent for 7 consecutive days or may leave 2 hours early every day
       For cause if:
           A dishonest act
           Improper conduct
           Regularly doing business on behalf of himself or for a third party
           Criminal conviction
           Inadequate discharge of duty
           Habitual drunkenness
                  Currently debate on this cause; many courts consider it a social problem and not a just cause
           Violation of trade secrets
           Act of disobedience or insubordination
           Abandonment of employment
           Injurious act to the honor of any person during working hours (except in self defense)
           Persistent gambling



                                                                           Brazil: The      3 Make or        2012 and
                                                                             Basics           Break           Beyond
                                                                                              Issues
Labor – It’s more than just the 13th
salary
   Brazilian v. Non-Brazilian
       Staff of companies with three or more employees must be
        2/3 Brazilian
           And, at least 2/3rds of the payroll must be paid to Brazilians
       Salaries paid to employees in Brazil cannot be based on
        foreign currency
   Federal, State and Municipal Taxes
       Contribution for Financing Social Security COFINS
           7.6% calculated based on gross revenue from the sale of goods
            or services
       Contribution to the Social Integration Plan PIS

                                                   Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                     Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                   Issues
Regulation & Tax
  Import  Export Process
  Minimum Wage

  Privatization

  Recent Tax & Regulation Changes




            “If you’re honest and want to comply with the tax code, you
            need an accountant and a tax lawyer for life”
                    -The Economist, September 24, 2011 quoting a São Paulo based economist




                                                     Brazil: The    3 Make or     2012 and
                                                       Basics         Break        Beyond
                                                                      Issues
Regulation & Tax
    Import Export Process
        Register with the governmental registration system
              Secretary of Foreign Trade SECEX, SISCOMEX system
              Subject to significant variability

        Obtain importing license if required
              Automatic
              Non-Automatic (process may take several months)
                   ANVISA, IBAMA, MAPA, DECEX, CNEN, ANP, ANEEL, DPF, COMEX, MCT . . .

        Radar
              Simplified
              Ordinary
        Tax / Duty
              Generally all imports are subject to import duty, IPI, ICMS, PIS and COFINS
                  Import duty is calculated on the total CIF (cost, insurance & freight)
                       Are charged based on the tariff classification of the product
                     Import Tariffs rage from 0 – 35% with an average applied tariff rate of 11.5%
                     The import duty rate for machinery and equipment not produced local MAY be
                      reduced to 2% upon request of the importer to the competent authorities

                                                                     Brazil: The        3 Make or   2012 and
                                                                       Basics             Break      Beyond
                                                                                          Issues
Regulation & Tax
             MERCOSUL                        southern common market
                         Free from import duty with certificate of origin
                         However Exceptions to Common External Tariff (CET)
                             Brazil is permitted 93 exceptions to the CET

                                           June, 2009 the trade minister raised several import duty rates:
                                           August, 2009 MERCOSUL members approved tariff increases on
                                            hundreds of products within the CET
                                              Primarily dairy, textiles, bags, backpacks, suitcases up to the
                                               bound level apx 31.4%

 Member Countries          Applied               Associate Member       Observer of
                                                                        Agreement
Brazil              Venezuela                    Bolivia            Mexico
Argentina                                        Chile
Uruguay                                          Columbia
Paraguay            Not yet ratified by          Ecuador
                    Paraguay                     Peru




                                                                                      Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                                                        Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                                                      Issues
Regulation & Tax
    Recent Tax Changes
        July, 2011
              1% tax on foreign derivatives
        August, 2011
              Three prong plan to continue to spur economic growth
        September, 2011
              30% Increase in industrial product tax on cars (37-55%)
                  Exempt if 65% domestic parts (Brazil, Mexico or Mercosul
                   country)
                  Oct 6, 2011 Renault SA announced plans to increase its
                   Brazilian production capacity by 100,000 vehicles
                      Brazil will be the companies 2nd largest market after France
                      Expects sales of 3 million vehicles annually by 2013 with 25% from
                       Brazil
                    October 10, 2011 Chinese auto maker JAC announced it would
                     build a factory in Brazil – output set to begin in 2014
                                                        Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                          Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                        Issues
Regulation & Tax
   Minimum Wage
     January    2012 increases 14%
       Currently  R$ 545 per month x 13 (US$ 12,540)
       Likely to reach R$ 817 per month by 2015 (US$18,800)

     54    million Brazilians at min wage level
   Increased domestic demand
     Likely   increases consumption
   Risks
     Some     industries may see significant increases in COGS
                                          Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                            Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                          Issues
Regulation & Tax
      Privatization
          Infrastructure Need
          Auction method
          Airports
                 São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport – R$ 170 million (3x reserve)
                 3 more by end of 2011
          Oilfield Rights
The Brazilian President’s office emphasized, “[t]he government does not intend to
get involved in these investments. These investments are going to be a long-term,
private sector affair. The private sector must play a key role.”




                                                                  Brazil: The     3 Make or   2012 and
                                                                    Basics          Break      Beyond
                                                                                    Issues
2012 & Beyond
   Infrastructure
   Currency Rally & Inflation
   Regulation




                                 Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                   Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                 Issues
Infrastructure
   Unlike the United States, Brazil is only beginning to develop its
    infrastructure capabilities
       Domestic Growth
       2014 World Cup
       2016 Olympics
   President Rousseff
       Infrastructure background
           Lula’s Program for Accelerated Growth Coordinator and is known for her
            technical analysis
                 History of funding with private capital
   Opportunities exist for
       US companies with capabilities to assist in infrastructure development
       US companies that already possess the ability to design, develop,
        manufacture or deliver goods

                                                            Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                              Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                            Issues
Infrastructure
   Logistics
       Rail
           ALL
                  Monopoly on rail concessions it operates
                  Excess capacity (profitable lines at near full capacity
           ANTT road & rail regulator
                  Recent concessions changes enables competitors to pay ALL an access fee
       Road
           Creating and paving many connecting routes
       Air
           Privatization
                  Operations, construction opportunities
       Telecom
           30% of households have broadband

                                                               Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                                 Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                               Issues
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends
   Inflation
       Analyst’s views very on inflation: 2012-2013 Range: low 3% to high 6%
           Disagreements largely relate to labor productivity and fiscal accounts
   Factors
       Significant FDI lured by high interest rates and growth
   Government Focus
       Education
           Increases in productivity
           Increases in the pool of educated labor decreases wage pressure which
            reduces inflation concerns
       Reduce Costs
           Eliminated Payroll taxes for labor intensive industries like furniture and
            textiles in August



                                                           Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                             Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                           Issues
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends
   GDP Projections: mid to high single digit growth in 2013
     GDP Gap
          Min wage increase .6% + reduction in tax revenues from new industrial policies .4% =
           1% GDP gap from expenditures & decrease of tax revenues
          New Oil fields provide wealth to help fund infrastructure investment
          Involvement of private sector capital in infrastructure development may reduce need
           for Government infrastructure expenditures (Increased privatization and licensing
           likely)
                                                                    Many analysts agree that the
                                                                     main risk for the Brazilian
                                                                   economy is not local, rather the
       Impact of E.U.                                           potential deterioration of the E.U.
           Greek debt default and general credit drop of the EU which triggers a regional
            recession will likely also reduce growth in the US and China
                 This reduction in global demand will likely lead to decreased commodity prices
           The impact of external noise would likely be smoothed by Brazilian fiscal and
            monetary counter cyclical policies; however, GDP growth would likely decrease to 2-
            3% in 2013

                                                                    Brazil: The     3 Make or      2012 and
                                                                      Basics          Break         Beyond
                                                                                      Issues
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends
   Currency
     Largely       dependent on EU crisis
       If no EU recession and developed banks print more money
        this increased liquidity will likely keep rates low for several
        years. This will likely lead to increased Brazilian Real
        appreciation
                Many analysts project as strong as BR$1.5 to US$1
       Ifglobal distress then Brazilian Real could likely weaken to
        1.7 or worse



                                                   Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                     Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                   Issues
Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends
   Macro Trends
     Min Wage
       January  2012, 14% min wage increase – 54 million
        receive min wage
       Should support consumption and prevent downside
        demand pressures
          Even if EU recession, unlikely that Brazil will experience
           recession
          Consumption is a high % of the Brazilian economy

       May   impact cost of labor and COGS in your industry

                                               Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                 Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                               Issues
Regulation
   A Bigger Brazil:          3 prong plan to continue to spur economic growth

     US$   16 Billion in tax breaks (over 2 years)
       Eliminate     payroll taxes for labor intensive industries
               Software, Textiles, Shoes, Furniture
     Buy   Brazil Initiative
       Allows  government agencies to pay up to 25% more for
        locally produced products than similar foreign goods
               Particularly when purchasing for defense, health, or high tech
                communications equipment
     Subsidized        Loan Programs

                                                       Brazil: The   3 Make or   2012 and
                                                         Basics        Break      Beyond
                                                                       Issues
Brazil: The    3 Make or     2012 and
                                    Basics      Break Issues    Beyond




                          EXPORTING OHIO TO LATIN
                          AMERICA: A BRAZILIAN CASE
                          STUDY
dwilsonjdmba

dwilson@keglerbrown.com
                          David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
Additional Sources
   UBS Investment Research: Emerging Economic Focus, UBS, August 29, 2011
   A Closer Look at Brazil’s Credit Boom, Deutsche Bank EM Special Publication, July 22, 2011
   Anchoring, De-Anchoring, Re-Anchoring, Bradesco Corretora Economics BBI Equity Research,
    September 6, 2011
   Economic Outlook: Brazil, BBVA, Third Quarter 2011
   Brazil Auctions Rights to Airport, WSJ, August 23, 2011
   The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power’s Struggle with Geography, STRATFOR, July 14,
    2011
   The Aging World, Ned Davis Research Inc, July 21, 2011
   Japanese Dump Real Funds at Fastest Pace Since Earthquake: Brazil Credit, Bloomberg,
    September, 30, 2011
   First they went for the currency, now for the land, The Economist, September 24, 2011
   Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage Third Edition, Jay B. Barney, 2007
   Privatization and the Distribution of Assets and Income in Brazil, Economic Reform Project:
    Global Policy Program, July, 2000

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2011 Ohio Hispanic Business Summit - Exporting to Brazil - David M Wilson

  • 1. Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Issues Beyond EXPORTING OHIO TO LATIN AMERICA: A BRAZILIAN CASE STUDY dwilsonjdmba dwilson@keglerbrown.com David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
  • 2. Exporting Ohio to Latin America: A Brazilian Case Study Brazil: The Basics -Facts P E S T -Opportunities -Risks 3 Issues that could Make or Break your Brazilian Business Strategy -Organizational Structure -Labor -Regulation & Tax 2012 & Beyond -Infrastructure -Inflation & Currency -Regulation Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 3. 10 Seconds or LESS  My name is . . .  I’m with . . .  And:  One experience I had related to Brazil is . . .  One question I have related to Brazil is . . .  When I think of Brazil, I think of . . . business or non business related Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 4. Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 5. Brazil: The Basics P E S T What are the Political, Economic, Social and Technological reasons to enter Brazil? export, manufacture, distribute, design . . .  Political  The ability of government to respond to and NOT create political risk  Economic  Macro trends, Currency risks  Social  The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply pressure to the company to change its behavior  Technological  Infrastructure, IP Protection, Government Incentives Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 6. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurement Political Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Government Structure  Level of Corruption  Appropriation Concerns  Bureaucracy Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 7. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurement Political Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Government Stability  Stable Republic Since 1985  Multiple Peaceful Elections  Democratic Constitution  Functioning Executive, Legislative and Judicial Branches  Multiple Party System  Increasingly developed services: Fire, Police, EMS Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 8. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurement Political Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Level of Corruption  Transparency International 2010 CPI index  The abuse of entrusted power for private gain  Perception of corruption in public sector  2010 (most current  USA: 22 of 180  Apx. 88th percentile  Brazil: 69 of 180  Apx. 62nd percentile  1995 (year 1 of CPI) Denmark* USA Brazil China India Russia  USA: 15 of 41 1st 22nd 69th 78th 87th 154th  Apx. 63rd percentile  Brazil: 36 of 41  Apx .13th percentile  Rousseff Cleaning House  Jettisoned 5 cabinet members since June Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 9. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurement Political Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Appropriation concerns  Long history of privatization & recent commitments  Talk of reviving old laws for a few categories  land restrictions on % of land in a district that foreigners may buy  1971 law found unconstitutional but is being revisited (no talk of taking land) Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 10. Brazil: The Basics P E S T The unit of measurement Political Risk for political risk is -The ability of government to respond to political risk STABILITY -The ability of government to NOT cause political risk  Bureaucracy? Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 11. Brazil: The Basics P E S T  Largest Latin American economy  7 largest in the World  Developed financial markets Macro Trends  Young workforce  Brazil 39.3%  United States 30.5%  China 29.4%  Increasing domestic demand  Growing Middle Class  Over 35 million Brazilians entered the middle class from 2003 to 2009  estimates predict an additional 20 million will climb the ladder by 2014  Per Capita GDP larger than China or India  Brazil $10,816  China $4,382  India $1,371  Rich Commodities Base – Energy, Mining, Agribusiness  Vies with Australia as worlds largest exporter of iron ore  Fertile Land: 1/3rd global coffee, ½ of all global sugarcane exports, major world player in beef, poultry, soybeans and corn  Recent oil field discovery 15bn to 70-100bn barrels  NPV of this discovery is apx $500bn apx 20% of GDP  Rainforest, Hydro Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 12. Brazil: The Basics P E S T  Currency  General  Weak exchange rate generally makes a country’s exports cheaper  Central banks in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have recently intervened to make their currencies cheaper  China continues to suppress the value of its currency to strengthen exports  Brazilian Real  1.59 end of August, crossed 1.9 (intraday) September  Selling in September  Foreign investment attracted by high returns began to sell in September largely due to fear of Greek crisis  notably Japan  Central bank lowered benchmark rate by .5%  Many view the valuation as stabilizing after >45% increase since 2008 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 13. Brazil: The Basics P E S T  Currency Risk  Transaction exposure – commitment to make payment at future date  Solutions:  Forward Contracts  Risk Sharing Agreements  Foreign Currency Options  Translation exposure – accounting based changes in consolidated FS  Taking the value on 1 day and reporting on your statements  Solutions:  Swap (assets, debts, and/or liabilities with someone else, e.g., a bank or another company)  Economic exposure – non zero changes in expected cash flows due to changes in currency (real not just nominal)  Solutions:  Diversification Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 14. Brazil: The Basics P E S T Social Risk How substantive is the stakeholder? -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply How intense is the threat? pressure to the company to change its behavior  Stakeholders  Shareholders, NGOs, Interest Groups, Consumers, Local Communities. . .  Factors  Cultural Norms, Languages  “Culture eats strategy for breakfast” – Oded Shenkar  Demographics  GINI index (inequality of income)  Ethnic Conflict Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 15. Brazil: The Basics P E S T  Geert Hofstede’s Cultural Dimensions  Power Distance  Individualism  Masculinity  Uncertainty Avoidance  Long-Term Orientation  www.geert-hofstede.com Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 16. Brazil: The Basics P E S T Social Risk How substantive is the stakeholder? -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply How intense is the threat? pressure to the company to change its behavior  Solutions  Decouple your brands / products  Charge premium on specific brands for CSR projects, not all consumers  Partner with NGOs  Reputational benefit, they understand the industry and may help keep you up to date with shifts in pressure  Admit Wrongs  People are more likely to believe your CSR reports when you tell them what you are doing wrong (and how you addressing it) Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 17. Brazil: The Basics P E S T Social Risk How substantive is the stakeholder? -The ability of stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities & apply How intense is the threat? pressure to the company to change its behavior  Education  Past 2000 - ½ Brazilian students graduated grade school - 3 out of 4 adults were functionally illiterate  Present -Goal to reach OECD standard over next decade -75,000 scholarships to attend world’s top universities (only 9,000 a few months ago) Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 18. Brazil: The Basics P E S T  Technological  Infrastructure  Power  Public Health  IP Protection  Codified IP law protected by the Brazilian Constitution  Industrial Property Law, Law No. 9279, as amended (May 15, 1996)(Braz).  Provides for contracts involving technology transfer, technical and scientific services, franchising and protection against unfair competition  Instituto Nacional da Propriedade Industrial (INPI)  Federal agency in charge of regulating and registering patents, trademarks, industrial designs, approving licensing and other agreements  Copyright Law, Law No. 9610, as amended (Feb 20, 1998)(Braz).  Regulates Brazilian Copyrights and some Software Law  Rights are enforceable  Patent holder is entitled to prevent others from using, producing, selling, offering, or importing a patented product or process  Patent holder is entitled to be indemnified for improper use  Government Incentives Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 19. 3 Issues that can Make or Break Your Brazilian Business Strategy Entry Method & Organizational Structure Labor Regulation & Tax Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 20. Entry Method & Organizational Structure  Wholly Owned Subsidiaries  Non-Equity Alliance  Licensing agreements Stable Brazilian legal system leads to fairly predictable results – but you may not always like them  Supply agreements  Distribution agreements  Non-Equity joint venture  Heads of Agreement (Similar to US Memo of Understanding)  Equity Alliance  Joint venture Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 21. Entry Method & Organizational Structure  Wholly owned subsidiary  Foreign capital in Brazil treated quite liberally  Current legislation does not distinguish between domestic & foreign owned companies  Investments may be freely made & are not subject to any prior approval, license or authorization from authorities  But must be registered with Central Bank’s online system  No max or min limit on investment amount  Levels if wish to employee non-Brazilians  No max or min term for the investment (repatriate anytime)  Amounts paid by a Brazilian company to a foreign investor are NOT subject to any withholding tax  Amounts over the initial registration are generally treated as capital gains and subject to 15% tax (25% if investor resides in a tax haven)  Foreign investors are free to use any of the available company forms Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 22. Entry Method & Organizational Structure  Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)  Sociedade Anônima (SA)  Sociedade Simples  Sociedade em Nome Coletivo  Sociedade em Comandita Simples  Sociedade em Comandita por ações  Sociedade em Comum  Sociedade em conta de Participação  Associações  Fundações  Cooperativas  Consórcio Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 23. Entry Method & Organizational Structure  Sociedade Limitada (LTDA)  Similar to US LLC  Liability limited to partner’s quotas  Quotas may be freely transferred according to the articles of association  May not be traded publicly  Simplicity & Flexibility  Reduced Maintenance Costs  Less Formal Requirements  Must have at least 2 partners  Brazilian partners are not required  May be managed by one or more persons, partners or other entity  Manager must reside in Brazil  If foreign manager, must possess a permanent Brazilian Visa with authorization to act as manager of a specific company  Generally preferred for wholly owned subsidiaries  Sociedade Anônima (SA)  Similar to US Corporation  May issue securities, debentures and may be publicly held  Higher Maintenance Costs  More formal requirements  Generally preferred for ventures comprised of a large number of different shareholder groups Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 24. Entry Method & Organizational Structure  Distributorship & Agency Relationships  Brazilian agency relationships is governed by the Brazilian Civil Code and by special legislation, Law n. 4.886/1965  Exclusivity is NOT presumed unless expressly established in an agency agreement  However exclusivity is common and will likely be required by potential agents  Exclusivity entitles the agent to compensation related to direct sales made by the company without assistance of the agent  Termination  There are specific enumerated “just” reasons for the termination of an agency agreement  Termination is typically both difficult & costly  Generally, an agent is entitled to no less that 1/12th of the total amount received during the time of agency or an amount equal to the monthly average compensation received multiplied by the remaining months left in the agency contract term.  An agent is also generally entitled to reimbursement for investments, such as office rent and equipment expenses Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 25. Entry Method & Organizational Structure  Joint Venture  May be created with or without a joint company  Contractual joint ventures between your LTDA/SA and a Brazilian company  Low cost entry and exit to new markets, industries and industry segments  Opportunity for learning  Provides a contractual framework for operations without generating the problems associated with an agency relationship  Enables each party to take full responsibility for its contribution to the venture while minimizing the issues associated with exclusivity  Enables low cost entry and exit  May later evolve into equity alliance Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 26. Entry Method & Organizational Structure  Should you vertically integrate?  Some or all of the value chain, acquire rather than joint venture  Transaction Costs  Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due to high transaction specific investments?  Is the exchange subject to high threats of opportunism due to uncertainty and complexity?  Capabilities  Do you have valuable, rare and costly to imitate resources?  Real Options  To retain flexibility: exchanges characterized by high levels of uncertainty should not be vertically integrated For additional information on this topic please reference: Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage Third Edition, Jay B. Barney, 2007 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 27. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th salary Labor rights are outlined in the Brazilian Constitution, as well as laws, decrees, provisional measures, ordinances and regulations, international conventions and treaties (ratified by the Brazilian government), company policies, Supreme Court decisions, Superior Labor Court decisions and customs Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 28. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th salary  Basic Principals  Worker Protection: the worker is considered the weaker party in the relationship  In labor-related conflicts, at any level or jurisdiction, whenever there is a doubt regarding evidence, the court’s decision will favor the worker  The law most favorable to the worker will be applied  The conditions most favorable to the worker will be presumed  Actual facts prevail over written documents  Protected salary (generally cannot lower an employee’s salary)  Defense of workers honor and ethical code  Nondiscriminatory practices  Continuity of employment relationship Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 29. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th salary  Direct agreements between employees and employers to resolve conflicts are not valid  The Brazilian constitution provides the right to sue as an individual guarantee  There are ways to settle  Arbitration, union conciliation commissions. . .  but they do NOT prevent the right of individual claims  Every 12 months employees are entitled to 30 calendar days paid vacation  In addition to the 13th salary (Christmas bonus equal to 1/12 the salary for each month of that year)  Every month employer must deposit an amount = to 8% of employees salary into Unemployment Fund  If employee is dismissed without cause, the employee may withdraw the amount  Employer must pay a penalty equal to 40% of the amount and an additional 10% to the government Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 30. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th salary  Not at will  30 days prior notice (some agreements may require longer period of time)  Notice shall specify whether the 30 days must be worked or not worked  If worked may be absent for 7 consecutive days or may leave 2 hours early every day  For cause if:  A dishonest act  Improper conduct  Regularly doing business on behalf of himself or for a third party  Criminal conviction  Inadequate discharge of duty  Habitual drunkenness  Currently debate on this cause; many courts consider it a social problem and not a just cause  Violation of trade secrets  Act of disobedience or insubordination  Abandonment of employment  Injurious act to the honor of any person during working hours (except in self defense)  Persistent gambling Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 31. Labor – It’s more than just the 13th salary  Brazilian v. Non-Brazilian  Staff of companies with three or more employees must be 2/3 Brazilian  And, at least 2/3rds of the payroll must be paid to Brazilians  Salaries paid to employees in Brazil cannot be based on foreign currency  Federal, State and Municipal Taxes  Contribution for Financing Social Security COFINS  7.6% calculated based on gross revenue from the sale of goods or services  Contribution to the Social Integration Plan PIS Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 32. Regulation & Tax  Import Export Process  Minimum Wage  Privatization  Recent Tax & Regulation Changes “If you’re honest and want to comply with the tax code, you need an accountant and a tax lawyer for life” -The Economist, September 24, 2011 quoting a São Paulo based economist Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 33. Regulation & Tax  Import Export Process  Register with the governmental registration system  Secretary of Foreign Trade SECEX, SISCOMEX system  Subject to significant variability  Obtain importing license if required  Automatic  Non-Automatic (process may take several months)  ANVISA, IBAMA, MAPA, DECEX, CNEN, ANP, ANEEL, DPF, COMEX, MCT . . .  Radar  Simplified  Ordinary  Tax / Duty  Generally all imports are subject to import duty, IPI, ICMS, PIS and COFINS  Import duty is calculated on the total CIF (cost, insurance & freight)  Are charged based on the tariff classification of the product  Import Tariffs rage from 0 – 35% with an average applied tariff rate of 11.5%  The import duty rate for machinery and equipment not produced local MAY be reduced to 2% upon request of the importer to the competent authorities Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 34. Regulation & Tax  MERCOSUL southern common market  Free from import duty with certificate of origin  However Exceptions to Common External Tariff (CET)  Brazil is permitted 93 exceptions to the CET  June, 2009 the trade minister raised several import duty rates:  August, 2009 MERCOSUL members approved tariff increases on hundreds of products within the CET  Primarily dairy, textiles, bags, backpacks, suitcases up to the bound level apx 31.4% Member Countries Applied Associate Member Observer of Agreement Brazil Venezuela Bolivia Mexico Argentina Chile Uruguay Columbia Paraguay Not yet ratified by Ecuador Paraguay Peru Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 35. Regulation & Tax  Recent Tax Changes  July, 2011  1% tax on foreign derivatives  August, 2011  Three prong plan to continue to spur economic growth  September, 2011  30% Increase in industrial product tax on cars (37-55%)  Exempt if 65% domestic parts (Brazil, Mexico or Mercosul country)  Oct 6, 2011 Renault SA announced plans to increase its Brazilian production capacity by 100,000 vehicles  Brazil will be the companies 2nd largest market after France  Expects sales of 3 million vehicles annually by 2013 with 25% from Brazil  October 10, 2011 Chinese auto maker JAC announced it would build a factory in Brazil – output set to begin in 2014 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 36. Regulation & Tax  Minimum Wage  January 2012 increases 14%  Currently R$ 545 per month x 13 (US$ 12,540)  Likely to reach R$ 817 per month by 2015 (US$18,800)  54 million Brazilians at min wage level  Increased domestic demand  Likely increases consumption  Risks  Some industries may see significant increases in COGS Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 37. Regulation & Tax  Privatization  Infrastructure Need  Auction method  Airports  São Gonçalo do Amarante Airport – R$ 170 million (3x reserve)  3 more by end of 2011  Oilfield Rights The Brazilian President’s office emphasized, “[t]he government does not intend to get involved in these investments. These investments are going to be a long-term, private sector affair. The private sector must play a key role.” Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 38. 2012 & Beyond  Infrastructure  Currency Rally & Inflation  Regulation Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 39. Infrastructure  Unlike the United States, Brazil is only beginning to develop its infrastructure capabilities  Domestic Growth  2014 World Cup  2016 Olympics  President Rousseff  Infrastructure background  Lula’s Program for Accelerated Growth Coordinator and is known for her technical analysis  History of funding with private capital  Opportunities exist for  US companies with capabilities to assist in infrastructure development  US companies that already possess the ability to design, develop, manufacture or deliver goods Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 40. Infrastructure  Logistics  Rail  ALL  Monopoly on rail concessions it operates  Excess capacity (profitable lines at near full capacity  ANTT road & rail regulator  Recent concessions changes enables competitors to pay ALL an access fee  Road  Creating and paving many connecting routes  Air  Privatization  Operations, construction opportunities  Telecom  30% of households have broadband Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 41. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends  Inflation  Analyst’s views very on inflation: 2012-2013 Range: low 3% to high 6%  Disagreements largely relate to labor productivity and fiscal accounts  Factors  Significant FDI lured by high interest rates and growth  Government Focus  Education  Increases in productivity  Increases in the pool of educated labor decreases wage pressure which reduces inflation concerns  Reduce Costs  Eliminated Payroll taxes for labor intensive industries like furniture and textiles in August Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 42. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends  GDP Projections: mid to high single digit growth in 2013  GDP Gap  Min wage increase .6% + reduction in tax revenues from new industrial policies .4% = 1% GDP gap from expenditures & decrease of tax revenues  New Oil fields provide wealth to help fund infrastructure investment  Involvement of private sector capital in infrastructure development may reduce need for Government infrastructure expenditures (Increased privatization and licensing likely) Many analysts agree that the main risk for the Brazilian economy is not local, rather the  Impact of E.U. potential deterioration of the E.U.  Greek debt default and general credit drop of the EU which triggers a regional recession will likely also reduce growth in the US and China  This reduction in global demand will likely lead to decreased commodity prices  The impact of external noise would likely be smoothed by Brazilian fiscal and monetary counter cyclical policies; however, GDP growth would likely decrease to 2- 3% in 2013 Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 43. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends  Currency  Largely dependent on EU crisis  If no EU recession and developed banks print more money this increased liquidity will likely keep rates low for several years. This will likely lead to increased Brazilian Real appreciation  Many analysts project as strong as BR$1.5 to US$1  Ifglobal distress then Brazilian Real could likely weaken to 1.7 or worse Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 44. Inflation, Currency, Macro Trends  Macro Trends  Min Wage  January 2012, 14% min wage increase – 54 million receive min wage  Should support consumption and prevent downside demand pressures  Even if EU recession, unlikely that Brazil will experience recession  Consumption is a high % of the Brazilian economy  May impact cost of labor and COGS in your industry Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 45. Regulation  A Bigger Brazil: 3 prong plan to continue to spur economic growth  US$ 16 Billion in tax breaks (over 2 years)  Eliminate payroll taxes for labor intensive industries  Software, Textiles, Shoes, Furniture  Buy Brazil Initiative  Allows government agencies to pay up to 25% more for locally produced products than similar foreign goods  Particularly when purchasing for defense, health, or high tech communications equipment  Subsidized Loan Programs Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Beyond Issues
  • 46. Brazil: The 3 Make or 2012 and Basics Break Issues Beyond EXPORTING OHIO TO LATIN AMERICA: A BRAZILIAN CASE STUDY dwilsonjdmba dwilson@keglerbrown.com David M. Wilson, Kegler Brown
  • 47. Additional Sources  UBS Investment Research: Emerging Economic Focus, UBS, August 29, 2011  A Closer Look at Brazil’s Credit Boom, Deutsche Bank EM Special Publication, July 22, 2011  Anchoring, De-Anchoring, Re-Anchoring, Bradesco Corretora Economics BBI Equity Research, September 6, 2011  Economic Outlook: Brazil, BBVA, Third Quarter 2011  Brazil Auctions Rights to Airport, WSJ, August 23, 2011  The Geopolitics of Brazil: An Emergent Power’s Struggle with Geography, STRATFOR, July 14, 2011  The Aging World, Ned Davis Research Inc, July 21, 2011  Japanese Dump Real Funds at Fastest Pace Since Earthquake: Brazil Credit, Bloomberg, September, 30, 2011  First they went for the currency, now for the land, The Economist, September 24, 2011  Gaining & Sustaining Competitive Advantage Third Edition, Jay B. Barney, 2007  Privatization and the Distribution of Assets and Income in Brazil, Economic Reform Project: Global Policy Program, July, 2000