1. Open Wireless Access: Will the carriers retain control? eComm, Mountain View CA, USA Dean Bubley, 14 th March 2008 [email_address]

4. Two worlds in mobile USA Canada Japan Korea >90% handsets sold via carriers <10% prepay <10% Nokia Globally: 50% phones sold by carriers 70% prepay, 40% Nokia Mixed Pretty much everywhere else 0-80% handsets sold via operators >50% prepay >40% Nokia Carrier-control

5. How openness works in much of the world $30 from electronics store SIM “starter pack” c$5, inc $3 credit. Bought anonymously. No contract needed. Credit top-up from $1. Bought from kid leaning through bus window + + Downsides: Poor support for data, number portability, few “services” beyond voice & SMS

6. Openness in the UK Starting @ $20 / month for 1GB No roaming premium on-net Or prepay $200 for modem then $1 per day / $10 per month No restriction on applications Competing against 4 other networks with other cost/policy

7. Devices, arbitrage and IP THE PAST Cellular Operator Voice, SMS Internet 3G IP data Bluetooth THE PRESENT Smart OS Inflexible RTOS Memory card USB Complete control of all voice, data & content that goes to/from device WiFi

8. But do “Normobs” care about openness? On the shelves at my local branch of Carphone Warehouse in London last week 9 Types of Smartphone 11 Types of Pinkphone + 9 Brandphones – Prada, Armani, Ted Baker, Levis, Porsche, Mandarina Duck, D&G, JCB, Apple

11. Benevolent dictator or tyrant?

15. Multiplicity: users have choices (2nd phone: close friends) Multi-tasking, multi-access, multi-operator, least-cost-routing software In bag: Old college friends Former colleagues Best mates Informal business contacts Parents Work Home: PSTN, DSL & VoIP (calling Granny in Australia)

16. Open spectrum? An Irishman stopped cutting the hedge, as a car drew up beside him and an English visitor enquired, &quot;Could you tell me the way to Balbriggan, Please?“ &quot;You know, sir, if I was going to Balbriggan I wouldn't start from here at all .&quot; Source: http://www.abitoblarney.com/irishjokes.htm

18. And more problems……. 1.1bn shipped in 2007 Opportunity cost of ‘elegant’ but complex & slow solutions

21. Don’t be a dumb pipe, be a tiger-stripe pipe (Huawei 3G HSDPA dongle modems, sold by 3 UK) $10 patterned sticker = higher margin than most services

24. An eComm 2008 presentation – http://eCommMedia.com for more