1. Ambient Connectivity eComm Europe 2009 Bob Frankston方思腾 http://frankston.com 1

2. Ambient Connectivity Can assume end points are “just connected” Networking like driving or walking or … Rather than like buying a ride on a railroad No providers, just local & spanning facilities A Person walks into a restaurant and orders Vanilla ice cream with whipped cream and nuts Is told they are out of cherries 2

3. Implementation Details Funding Telecom: Subscription funding as profit centers AC: Common infrastructure using all available facilities Stable relationships/paths IP Address End point identifiers for the relationship (names/intents) Routing identifiers (like postal addresses) Result Common facilities and cost savings Simplicity Opportunity rather than gatekeepers 3

4. What is “Ambient Connectivity”? It’s a Trillion Dollar Euro (per year) Opportunity Billable events create no value, innovation gatekept It’s like networking But without the network (Apologies to Einstein) Just the end-points It’s about the applications Devices to Devices Not just people-people, but our agents Price is a story we tell The telecom story is one of the nuttier ones Ambient connectivity is far simpler 4

5. What is “Ambient Connectivity”? It’s about relationships Not just exchanging bits It’s almost a nonconcept It “just works” Need to remove the phantoms from your brain It’s just “is” The rediscovery of End-To-End Focus on Applications No promises but opportunity Can solve own problems (individual and/or community) 5

6. Not Ambient Connectivity 6

7. Confused and at risk 7

8. A Taste of Connectivity Broadband is to the Internet Like the Vomit Comet is to weightlessness Great till you hit slam into the wall Just a scoche Subscriptions do decouple app from path Just like unmeasured dialup did Ambient Electricity 110/220 50/60 Plus USB 8

9. Opportunities Everything we do now but Everywhere Wired or wireless, fiber or copper, or sometimes nothing Nothing? As in observing relationships and latent relationships No dependence of subscriptions This means 100% “take-up” No meter running No per-pipe billing Means resilience – any path works Anyone can add capacity Lower Hurdle of innovation: Curiosity is enough 9

10. The Bit Commons One common infrastructure Means savings more than costs Can take advantage of existing facilities Facilities facilitate rather than limit Learning to be independent Dealing with failures Dealing with delays They happen anyway Architecting for the Bit Commons Presume connectivity Shims rather than silos 10

11. Phantoms in the Brain Concerns about zombie companies (carriers) Networks vs. networking. Current Internet (prototype) Protocols Worries about capacity and congestions The Internet is “full” Using up the Internet The Tragedy of the Commons (bits are not cows) My bits are special; Maze of twisty passages etc Time to shift the paradigm! 11

12. What is that Internet anyway? Dessert Topping or Floor Wax Network of networks Dialup and Broadband An Experiment in Economics What if you removed costs and path dependencies? About applications Protocols are (supposed to be) app-to-app App is not a machine, can be a conversation or document 12

13. Everyday Things Why do we used wired logic? What does a light switch do? Changing behavior with soft policies Smart Grids?? Treated as a special case Info electrons vs. Power electrons Matter Transmission Ship part number not part Like a URL or a GUID GPS direct from satellites! 13

14. What is Important The Lamppost model Look where the light is shining Not where we dropped the keys Broadband is a video delivery system Thus good for … Video delivery – YouTube And social network (because it’s the veneer) What about staying alive 911 (119, 112 etc WTF – I’m dead) is about as bad as it gets Why not have your pacemaker report events to your physician? First fire alerts with rich info to fire fighters/preventers? 14

15. Achieving Ambience Recognize bits are fundamental Realize the zombies are synthetic constructs Shift the funding model to infrastructure! Start to work on New Protocols Reconnect from the edge Separate naming (relationships) from addressing (path) Stable relationships, stable paths Move from stakeholders in misery To taking advantage of opportunities 15

16. Finland: A Case Study? Promises 100% Broadband But depends on carriers Not for those too remote?? Why speed rather than coverage? Can it shift paradigms? Providers offering their services Opportunity to subscribe is not infrastructure Can’t assume availability Ambient Connectivity Use existing infrastructure first Can assume connectivity and exploit it 16

17. Change is imminent Divestiture 1984 – Change happens Steps Acknowledge bits are fundamental (vs. services) Fund common infrastructure (local examples) Research new protocols and approaches Momentum builds with experience 17

18. Questions? Readings http://rmf.vc/?n=IAC – Introducing Ambient Connectivity http://rmf.vc/?n=BI – Broadband Internet? http://rmf.vc/?n=AS – Assuring scarcity (today’s model) http://rmf.vc/?n=BL – Beyond Limits – Hyper-growth markets http://rmf.vc/?n=ESF – Evolution is Simple, Fundamental http://frankston.com/?n=Railroads 18 谢谢