Join eMarketer Principal Analyst Jeffrey Grau as he highlights eMarketer’s new US retail ecommerce forecast, predicting how this channel will develop over the next five years and discussing the implications for retailers.

1. J U N E 2 1, 2 0 1 2
Retail Ecommerce
Forecast—Challenging
Economy Drives
Online Shopping
Sponsored by:
Jeffrey Grau
Principal Analyst
©2011 eMarketer Inc.

2. Questions we will answer today
 What is the outlook for online retail
sales?
 Which product categories have the
most growth potential?
 What mega-trends will drive
ecommerce growth?
 Who shops online?
Q & A
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

3. eMarketer forecasts double-digit growth
rates for ecommerce sales through 2016
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

4. Ecommerce has steadily outperformed
overall retail sales growth
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

5. Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales
has grown—and will continue to do so
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

6. Consumers are shifting purchases from
stores to the web
Break Out by Income (2012)
Annual Income Purchase more
$100,000> 63%
<$100,000 44%
Source: Deloitte, as cited in Internet
Retailer, April 6, 2012
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7. Let’s compare analysts’ forecasts
Benchmarks
US DoC
comScore
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

8. Is eMarketer bullish or are other analysts
being too conservative?
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

9. Analysts tend to underestimate
ecommerce growth rates
“Chronically over the course of the 15 year history of ecommerce, the growth of
the ecommerce market has been underestimated.” —Eric Best, CEO of Mercent,
in an interview with eMarketer, February 14, 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

10. How are online sales doing thus far in
2012?
Online sales were strong in Q1 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

11. Keep in mind that the internet is much
more than a sales channel
It strongly influences store sales
Share by Segment, 2012
Category Share
Online sale 7.2%
Web-influenced offline sales 38.2%
Web-influenced sales 45.4%
Non web-influenced offline sales 54.6%
Source: Forrester Research, as cited by Business
Insider, June 12, 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

12. Questions we will answer today
 What is the outlook for online retail
sales?
 Which product categories have the
most growth potential?
 What mega-trends will drive
ecommerce growth?
 Who shops online?
Q & A
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

13. Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales is
growing
In 2011, the internet accounted for
6.6% of total retail sales
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

14. Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales
varies greatly by category

15. Consumer packaged goods (CPG) is an
online sales category with high potential
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

16. Electronics and apparel dominate
ecommerce—and will continue to do so
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

17. Together they will account for 40% of
retail ecommerce sales in 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

18. What are the fastest growing categories?
13.3%
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19. Questions we will answer today
 What is the outlook for online retail
sales?
 Which product categories have the
most growth potential?
 What mega-trends will drive
ecommerce growth?
 Who shops online?
Q & A
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

20. 1. Portable devices power anytime,
anywhere commerce
Smartphones satisfy Tablets spur product
immediate product discovery and
needs impulse buying
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

21. Smartphones promote showrooming by
bringing the internet to the store
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

22. Showrooming diverts sales from stores to
the web
6 in 10 ‘showroomers’ said
they originally planned to
purchase at the store but
changed their mind while
there and instead bought
online
Source: comScore, “State of the
US Online Retail Economy in Q1
2012,” May 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

23. Tablets help people discover products
they did not know they wanted
“Our general
“With the iPad app,
belief is that
we focus on how we
tablet sales are
provide this discovery
significantly
experience.”
additive.”
Source: eMarketer
interview, May 2012 Source: eMarketer
Paul Cousineau interview, April 2012
Yonatan Feldman
VP, Mobile & Global Engineering VP, Mobile Products
Gilt Groupe Wal-Mart Global Ecommerce
“I would say that the tablet is
creating more incremental traffic
than it is taking it away or shifting.”
Matt Jones Source: eMarketer interview, April 2012
General Manager of Mobile
Home Depot
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

24. Tablet commerce is having a noticeable
impact on web sales
“We do more than 20% of
our revenue on mobile, and
tablets make up about 10%
of our revenue.”
Source: eMarketer interview, May
2012 “Tablet commerce
Yonatan Feldman
Julie Bornstein is certainly
VP, Mobile & Global Engineering
SVP growing, but it’s still
Gilt Groupe
Sephora Direct small—in the low
“We are definitely seeing continual double-digits.”
growth of people using tablets—mobile
Source: eMarketer
is our fastest growing channel. We interview, May 2012
expect traffic on tablets to continue to
increase.”
Source: eMarketer interview, May 2012
Ed Deutscher
Operating VP, Digital Commerce and Emerging
Platforms
HSN
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

25. 2. Ecommerce is helping consumers make
strong connections with products
Personalized Curated
recommendations selection
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26. Personalization brings products of interest
to the consumer’s attention
Present
75% of the videos people watch on Netflix are the result
of seeing one of its recommendations
The Container Store’s conversion rates are about three
times higher for customers who interact with
recommendations than for a regular visit to the same page
Future
Shopycat, a social gift-finding Facebook app that came out
of Walmart Labs, aims to convert consumer insights
captured via social media into practical shopping tips
eBay acquired recommendation engine Hunch’s prediction
technology to surface more quality recommendations from
eBay’s “long tail” of product listings.
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

27. Curated sites harness the power of social
recommendations
32% of online buyers
have made a purchase
as a result of seeing an
image on a social
image-sharing site like
Pinterest or Polyvore
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

28. Pinterest has become a powerful source
of traffic during its short life
“We just launched on
Pinterest probably two
“Pinterest is a growing
months ago, and we are source of traffic for
seeing a huge response.” Etsy.”
Source: eMarketer interview, Source: AdAgeDigital,
May 2012 December 2011
Martine Reardon Adam Brown
Chief Marketing Officer Press Manager
Macy’s Inc. Etsy
In the past month, 3.36% of Gemvara’s traffic
came directly from Pinterest, outpacing Twitter,
Google+ and every other social network save
Facebook, which accounted for 7.38%.”
Source: Internet Retailer, February 2012
Brian Kalma
Chief Experience Officer
Gemvara
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

29. Questions we will answer today
 What is the outlook for online retail
sales?
 Which product categories have the
most growth potential?
 What mega-trends will drive
ecommerce growth?
 Who shops online?
Q & A
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

30. Online shoppers and buyers defined
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

31. Most people who want to buy online are
already doing so
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

32. Internet users across all age groups are
buying online
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

33. Older consumers will account for a
greater share of online buyers
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

34. Online
buying has
become a
mainstream
activity,
where age,
race and
income
matter less
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

35. Lower-income shoppers now account for
a quarter of online sales
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

36. Millennials use new shopping channels
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

37. Takeaways
 Ecommerce’s share of total retail sales
could easily approach 15% by 2020.
 Key growth engines:
o Low prices, convenience and broad
selection online
o Mobile and tablet commerce
o Personalization and curated websites
o CPG
o Mainstreaming of online buying
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

38. Drive Conversions and Revenue
 Built for commerce: Conversions,
transactions and revenue
Highly personal, relevant email
and cross-channel marketing
 Sophisticated made simple
Susan Wall | VP, Marketing

39. Abandoned Carts
From Abandon to Conversion: Why Shoppers
Abandon Carts and What Merchants Can Do
About It
• Top reasons shoppers abandon online
purchases
• Analysis of post-abandonment email
strategies
• Recommendations for maximizing
conversions
bronto.com/resources

40. Triggered Messages
Automate, Increase Engagement & Drive
Revenue with Triggered Messages
• Content and creative best practices
• 7 Triggered message program examples
• A guide to defining business rules
bronto.com/resources

41. Cross-Channel Marketing
Taking A ‘Crawl, Walk, Run’ Approach to
Cross-Channel Marketing
• How retailers build long-lasting relationships
with shoppers.
• How SMS can get shoppers to complete
purchases.
bronto.com/resources

42. Tips & Tricks
• Expertise from the field
• White papers
• Customer success stories
• Blog posts
bronto.com/resources

43. Q&A Session
Learn more about digital advertising with
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Retail Ecommerce
Forecast—Challenging
Economy Drives Over 120 reports are published each year.
Online Shopping Following are a few recent ones you may
be interested in:
 How Retailers Are Leveraging 'Big Data' to
Personalize Ecommerce
 US Retail Ecommerce Forecast: Entering the Age
Jeffrey Grau of Omnichannel Retailing
You will receive an email  Curated Ecommerce: How Less Can Be More for
tomorrow with a link to Shoppers
view the deck and
webinar recording.  Globalizing Ecommerce: What Retailers Need to
Know About Entering Foreign Markets
Sponsored by:
Bronto To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products
bronto.com/resources 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com
©2012 eMarketer Inc.