May 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast
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- Global GDP growth softened to 1.8% in Q1 2011 due to high oil prices impacting consumer spending and confidence, while unemployment remained persistently high. - Monetary policy tightening is needed in countries like China and elsewhere in the emerging world to control inflation, while fiscal austerity and high borrowing costs will constrain growth in southern European countries. - The earthquake and tsunami in Japan severely impacted power supplies and supply chains, leading to a downgrade of Japan's 2011 GDP growth forecast to 1%.
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May 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast
- 1. Global economic forecast May 13th 2011
- 10. 16 16 16 15 12 - Tensions over currency manipulation lead to a rise in protectionism - China’s economy crashes - New asset bubbles burst, creating renewed financial turbulence - Major sovereigns default as public debt surges - Oil prices remain at extremely high levels
- 11. 10 10 10 9 8 + Oil prices slump - Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest - The euro zone breaks up - The US dollar crashes - Developed economies suffer stagflation
Notas del editor
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009 as it suffers from a massive drop in external demand, the impact of the global financial crisis and the unwinding of domestic imbalances. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009 and some restocking, after the extensive drawdown of inventories in the first half 2009.
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
- The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
- Although we are forecasting steady growth in oil demand in 2011-13, ample supply and capacity will prevent significant price gains. While our forecast suggests markedly lower prices in 2009-13 than in 2008, they are still relatively high in both historical and real terms.
- Policy rates in the largest industrial economies are forecast to remain at ultra-loose levels at least until the end of 2010. Concerns not to inflate fresh bubbles will persuade the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) to start to tighten policy from 2011.