EIU Global Economic Forecast Nov 2010

EIU global forecast 20110316

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July 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

June 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

May 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

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September 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

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March 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

EIU global forecast 20110316

July 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

June 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

May 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

August 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

September 2011 EIU Global Economic Forecast

Global Financial Forecast

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This article compares the opportunities and constraints of the Chinese and Indian capital markets. While the Indian market is more open to foreign portfolio investments, there are governance and reliability risks as well as substantial volatility. In the Chinese case, much of the market is closed to foreign portfolio investors. While exposure to these markets offers important opportunities for diversification, both also have drawbacks which must be clearly understood for their risks to be effectively managed.

Paper tigers: Chinese and Indian capital markets

The corporate CFO was once confined to financial gatekeeping and oversight. But for some time now CFOs have been taking on wider and more strategic corporate responsibilities. Today’s CFO needs to partner with the CEO on strategic leadership of a company through budgeting and planning, while taking on greater responsibilities in daily operations and even functions such as enterprise content management. Indeed, CFOs are making more decisions in real-time in areas new to them, and they are relying on volumes of new information. This report, commissioned by Qlik, finds that having to use so much new information to shape corporate strategy is a double-edged sword. The growth of non-traditional information sources, such as social media and location-based data, offers more potential opportunities for CFOs to generate important insights about their businesses.

Beyond spreadsheets: How the new breed of CFO makes decisions

China plans to become the industry leader in electric vehicle development. The Chinese government wants to have 5m new energy vehicles (NEVs) on its roads by 2020. What are China’s chances of meeting its ambitioyus development plans? Does China need to expand its definition of EVs to include some low-speed vehicles? What does this mean for the automotive industry as a whole? This report also gives an assessment of how China's EV plans compare with those of other countries, notably the US, and what effect China's public investment in the technology will have on carmakers' own investment plans. Download the free summary and share with your colleagues.

EIU Report China Electric Vehicles

Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, businesses around the world have faced a barrage of new risk-related challenges. The macroeconomic environment of recent years, marked by the global financial crisis, fiscal uncertainty in the US and sovereign debt problems in Europe, has also helped to make companies more riskaverse, leading them to swap bold investment decisions for more cautious behaviour and cash hoarding. The tide is turning, however, with most expecting 2014 to mark a return to growth...

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With conditions in the developed markets of Europe and North America likely to remain weak in the near term, business is increasingly looking to Asia for growth. Growth will not be uniform across sectors or even within them. Which subsectors will see the most dynamic growth? And what will drive it? Exports? Domestic sales? Technology? Innovation? Rising consumer incomes? What should companies be thinking about as they plan their Asia strategies for the next five to ten years? The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), sponsored by InvestKL, developed the “industry dynamism” barometer to measure the resilience and growth potential of six industry sectors across Asia.

Asia Rising Industrial dynamism barometer - Environmental Technology

A new report published today by The Economist Intelligence Unit finds that progress in providing faster broadband access varies significantly across South-East Asia, despite the economic opportunities being well acknowledged. There are great differences in the level of broadband planning and implementation, where even leaders, such as Singapore and Malaysia, face challenges in achieving greater coverage and uptake. In Singapore, 95% of households have access to fiber to the home (FTTH) network speed and 46% of them have subscribed to it. In Myanmar, by contrast, there is not even a national broadband plan. Among those with a plan for development, implementation is uneven. This is among the key findings of The future of broadband in South-East Asia, an Economist Intelligence Unit report commissioned by Huawei. Although the Association of Southeast Asian Nations’ ICT Masterplan 2015 maps out a strategy to achieve greater integration across six areas, including infrastructure development and bridging the digital divide, implementation remains a domestic issue. In Malaysia, for instance, broadband targets are based on speeds of 256Kbps with the aim to provide 10Mbps or greater to high economic impact areas. The government has set a target to increase the broadband penetration rate to 75% of households by 2015. Mobile-broadband has been touted as a quick way to provide broader access, but experts are now concluding that it is not a silver bullet. Conversion of spectrum allocation, the necessary technical development to provide faster mobile speeds, has been slow across much of the region. Even where successful policies are in place, such as in Singapore, limited bandwidth for data poses an emerging challenge. This highlights the continued importance of fixed broadband networks to supplement increasingly crowded mobile networks. The report also finds that, in order not to fall behind, regulators are now taking a more holistic perspective and working with industry to resolve such issues and promote strong infrastructure environments. As the information society grows in importance, digital inclusiveness becomes more urgent. Yet reaching rural and vulnerable populations remains difficult even for leading countries such as Singapore and Malaysia. Cyber security has also emerged as an issue which can affect uptake. Despite the financial and practical challenges of broadband implementation, it remains the easier part of the supply and demand equation. More difficult are the challenges of improving affordability and raising awareness of the benefits of broadband adoption. Countries are only now beginning to tackle these issues.

The future of broadband in South-East Asia

It used to be the case that staff worked the way they were told to by their employers. It was therefore the objectives of the organisation – efficiency, in most cases – that defined the working style of the majority. Now, though, the way we work is subject to all manner of influences. Organisations that wish to design engaging and productive working environments for their employees must understand those forces, and react accordingly.

Working in the future

Hope, headwinds or hurricanes? This presentation from the Economist Intelligence Unit takes a look at the global economy today and in the long-term. Key takeaways: risk of double dip recession is high at 30%, but the EIU thinks that sluggish growth, not negative growth, is the most likely outcome; China will take over the US as the largest economy by 2025; without major economic reform, the euro area may start on a more gradual decline.

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On November 2, 2010, EIU Senior Economist Leila Butt, presented the Economist Intelligence Unit Global Outlook in Boston. Key points in this presentation include: - Most economies are growing again - Emerging markets are booming - Unemployment remains very high - Consumers are rebuilding balance sheets - Countries are heavily indebted - Deflation is a risk in rich countries - Asset bubbles are a risk in emerging markets

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It is clear that markets so far this year are trading on sentiment, more specifically fear, with hard-data playing second fiddle. Or more accurately, price action suggests that markets are focusing on disappointing December numbers (e.g. US ISM) or even reasonably uneventful data (Chinese manufacturing PMI) and ignoring strong data such as U.S non-farm payrolls, Chinese services PMI and exports (see Figure 1). The hit-and-miss approach of Chinese policy-makers to stabilise equity markets (and ultimately growth) have done little to restore confidence. I nevertheless flag in Figure 37 some of the key data and events to focus on this year.

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Decades of economic growth and development along with better governance and nutrition-specific programmes had lifted hundreds of millions of people in Asia out of poverty, as well as starvation and malnutrition. However, due to the uneven development, while a large segment of Asian's population had changed their eating habits to over-nutrition diets and worrying about lifestyle diseases like diabetes, cancer and heart diseases, there are still some countries and regions suffering from lack of nutrition. For example, childhood malnutrition and stunting is still prevalent in South Asia, one Indian survey found that 21% of children suffer wasting, and a further 7.5% of children suffer it severely. For more details, please visit: https://eiuperspectives.economist.com/sustainability/fixing-asias-food-system/white-paper/food-thought-eating-better?utm_source=OrganicSocial&utm_medium=Slideshare&utm_campaign=Amundi&utm_content=Slideshare_whitepaper

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Digital platforms and services stimulate economic growth and development. Countries are looking to the “internet economy” to provide new market opportunities and help achieve the UN’s Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) such as promoting economic growth and sustainable industralisation, a process often relying on an increase in online access rates and smartphone penetration. For more details, please visit: https://eiuperspectives.economist.com/technology-innovation/digital-platforms-and-services-development-opportunity-asean?utm_source=OrganicSocial&utm_medium=Slideshare&utm_campaign=Amundi&utm_content=Slideshare_whitepaper

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The world’s top 100 asset owners (AOs) represent about US$19trn in assets under management. The largest, and potentially most influential, proportion is in Asia—more than a third of the total. Out of the top 20 largest funds, three out of the first five and nearly half of the total are in Asia. For more insights, please visit: https://eiuperspectives.economist.com/sustainability/sustainable-and-actionable-study-asset-owner-priorities-esg-investing-asia?utm_source=OrganicSocial&utm_medium=Slideshare&utm_campaign=Amundi&utm_content=Slideshare_whitepaper

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Internet connectivity has proven to be one of the most profound enablers of social change and economic growth of our time. Beginning with fixed narrowband internet connections and moving through successive generations of increasingly pervasive and powerful networks, connectivity has come to underpin our working and personal lives, empowering businesses to operate more efficiently and with wider reach. In turn, connectivity has sparked and fuelled countless new industries, products and services that are coming to define our modern age. Connectivity has proven to be a vital ingredient for business success.

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In the cyber world, many are attacked but not all are victims. Some organisations emerge stronger. The most cyber-resilient organisations can respond to an incident, fix the vulnerabilities and apply the lessons to strategies for the future. A key element of their resilience is governance, a task that falls to the board of directors. To learn more about the challenges of governing a cyber-resilient organisation, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) conducted a global survey, sponsored by Willis Towers Watson, of 452 large-company board members, C-suite executives and directors with responsibility for cyber-resilience. Among the findings: -In the past year, a third of the companies surveyed experienced a serious cyber-incident — one that disrupted operations, impaired financials and damaged reputations — and most placed high odds on another one in the next 12 months. -Many companies lack confidence in their ability to source talent and develop a cyber-savvy workforce. -Executives cite the size of the financial and reputational risk as the most important reason for board oversight.

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Artificial intelligence (AI) will profoundly affect the ways in which businesses and governments engage with consumers and citizens alike. From advances in genetic diagnostics to industrial automation, these widespread changes will have significant economic, social and civic implications. As such, Intelligent Economies explores the transformative potential of AI on markets and societies across the developed and developing worlds. This report, developed by The Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by Microsoft, draws on a survey of more than 400 senior executives working in various industries, including financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, retail and the public sector. Survey respondents operate in eight markets: France, Germany, Mexico, Poland, South Africa, Thailand, the UK and the US.

Intelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and society

As businesses generate and manage vast amounts of data, companies have more opportunities to gather data, incorporate insights into business strategy and continuously expand access to data across the organisation. Doing so effectively—leveraging data for strategic objectives—is often easier said than done, however. This report, Transforming data into action: the business outlook for data governance, explores the business contributions of data governance at organisations globally and across industries, the challenges faced in creating useful data governance policies and the opportunities to improve such programmes.

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It wasn’t long ago that a work meeting meant gathering around a table to discuss an agenda. These days you may be using Slack, Hangouts or other digital collaboration platforms that blend messaging with video and allow real-time editing of documents. Even with these tools, communication at work can still break down, potentially endangering careers, creating stressful work environments and slowing growth. A survey from The Economist Intelligence Unit and sponsored by Lucidchart reveals some of the perceived causes and effects of these communication breakdowns. The survey, conducted from November 2017 to January 2018, included 403 senior executives, managers and junior staff at US companies divided equally and from companies with annual revenue of less than US$10m, between US$10m and US$1bn and more than US$1bn. The survey research provides insights about what employees see as the biggest barriers to workplace communication, the causes of the barriers and their impact on work life. Complete survey results are included at the end of this report.

Communication barriers in the modern workplace

Successful young entrepreneurial innovators have achieved something akin to rockstar status. They grace magazine covers and keynote global conferences, inspiring burgeoning start-ups and Fortune 50 companies alike. Collectively, young entrepreneurs are innovative by nature and their thinking is an important source of growth and job creation across the world. Today, with digital tools in hand, leaders are better positioned to expand their businesses across borders, seize niche opportunities and shape the global economic future. Yet, most of today’s young entrepreneurs want more than status and a global corporate footprint. Their ideas of success arise from powerful social, political and economic convictions. To find out what really makes young innovators tick, The Economist Intelligence Unit, sponsored by FedEx, surveyed more than 500 of these young entrepreneurs around the globe about their motivations, ideals and priorities. Our survey respondents were between 25 and 50 years of age and all founders, owners or partners of firms with fewer than 500 employees. They are living in North America, Europe, Middle East, India and Africa, Asia-Pacific, and Latin America. We surveyed them on matters of globalization, technology and social values. We then compared their views with a similar survey of the general public in the same regions. Side by side, these surveys enabled us to differentiate the outlooks of today’s young and innovative entrepreneurs. Our surveys identified four key mindsets that guide young entrepreneurs: leading with passion; thinking globally; embracing social responsibility; and banking on connectivity. This report explores the similarities and divergences of today’s young entrepreneurs and the general public. It seeks insights into the elements of the business environment that matter most to entrepreneurs, as well as their views on a variety of issues including free trade and social responsibility.

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Education systems across the world are grappling with the challenge of preparing their students for the rapid changes they will experience during their lifetimes. To this end, schools have a critical role in equipping students with the requisite skills and competencies that will be in demand, particularly as digital technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly transform businesses and influence economies. In this report, The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) discusses the results of a study that explores how to best prepare primary and secondary school (referred to in this report as “K-12”) students for the 21st century workplace (“the modern workplace”), where a mix of hard and soft skills are crucial for success. The research, sponsored by Google for Education, draws on a survey of 1,200 educators in 16 countries.1 It looks at the strategies most effective in developing 21st century skills and how technology can support such efforts.

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Corporate and shareholder sentiment towards MA has rebounded since the dark days of 2008. Low borrowing costs have coaxed many new buyers, including acquisitive Chinese conglomerates, into the market. The prices of prized assets have risen accordingly. It remains a sellers market in technology-driven deals, particularly in the consumer-goods, financial services, and media and telecommunications sectors.

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This article aims to demonstrate that the Lula government is faced with two major challenges in its effort to promote Brazil's economic and social development. The first challenge, of an economic nature, is represented by the obstacles that exist with the spending cap policy, despite the flexibility provided by the fiscal framework and the existence of an independent Central Bank, which make the Brazilian government unable to coordinate its fiscal and monetary policies, make public investments in the expansion of the economy and obtain macroeconomic stability and, the second challenge, of a political nature, is represented by the obstacles existing in the National Congress due to the fact that it does not have a majority in parliament, which prevents the federal government from putting its national developmental project into practice and fully meet social demands. For Brazil's progressive forces to re-elect President Lula in the 2026 presidential elections and obtain a parliamentary majority in the National Congress committed to political, economic and social advances, the Lula government will have to be successful on the economic front, promoting the expansion of the economy, increasing significantly generating jobs and income, keeping inflation under control and meeting the maximum social demands that benefit, above all, the country's underserved populations. Brazil's progressive forces need to commit, starting from the 2024 municipal elections, towards to elect the maximum number of mayors and councilors committed to Brazil's political, economic and social advances. These are the conditions to prevent, in 2026, right-wing extremists from regaining the Presidency of the Republic, expanding their participation in state governments and the National Congress and putting their nefarious anti-social and anti-national project into practice.

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