SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 15
Global forecasting service Economic forecast summary – January 2012 www.gfs.eiu.com
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object]
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
20 25 15 12 12 -  Tensions over currency manipulation lead to protectionism -  Resumption of monetary stimulus leads to new asset bubbles -  The Chinese economy crashes -  The euro zone breaks up -  The global economy falls into recession
10 12 9 8 8 +  Oil prices slump +  Unprecedented policy response in euro zone prevents contagion -  Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest -  The US dollar crashes -  Oil prices remain at extremely high levels
 
Access analysis on over 200 countries worldwide with the Economist Intelligence Unit T he analysis and content in our reports is derived from our extensive economic, financial, political and business risk analysis of over 203 countries worldwide.  You may gain access to this information by signing up, free of charge, at  www.eiu.com   Click on the country name to go straight to the latest analysis of that country: Further reports are available from Economist Intelligence Unit and can be downloaded at  www.eiu.com   G8 Countries *  Canada *  France *  Germany *  Italy *  Japan *  Russia *  United Kingdom *  United States of America BRIC Countries *  Brazil *  Russia *  India *  China CIVETS Countries *  Colombia *  Indonesia *  Vietnam *  Egypt *  Turkey *  South Africa Or  view the list of all the countries . Should you wish to speak to a sales representative please telephone us: Americas: +1 212 698 9717 Asia: +852 2585 3888 Europe, Middle East & Africa: +44 (0)20 7576 8181 www.gfs.eiu.com
Access analysis and forecasting of major industries with the Economist Intelligence Unit I n addition to the extensive country coverage the Economist Intelligence Unit provides each month industry and commodities information is also available. The key industry sectors we cover are listed below with links to more information on each of them. www.gfs.eiu.com Automotive Analysis and five-year forecast for the automotive industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Commodities   This service offers analysis for 25 leading commodities. It delivers price forecasts for the next two years with forecasts of factors influencing prices such as production, consumption and stock levels. Analysis and forecasts are split by the two main commodity types: “Industrial raw materials” and “Food, feedstuffs and beverages”. Consumer goods   Analysis and five-year forecast for the consumer goods and retail industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Energy   Analysis and five-year forecast for the energy industries throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Financial services   Analysis and five-year forecast for the financial services industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Healthcare   Analysis and five-year forecast for the healthcare industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Technology   Analysis and five-year forecast for the technology industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis
Media Enquiries for the Economist Intelligence Unit www.gfs.eiu.com Europe, Middle East & Africa Grayling PR Jennifer Cole Tel: + 44 (0)20 7592 7933 Sophie Kriefman Tel: +44 (0)20 7592 7924 Ravi Sunnak  Tel : +44 (0)207 592 7927 Mobile: + 44 (0)7515 974 786 Email:  [email_address] Asia The Consultancy Tom Engel +852 3114 6337 / +852 9577 7106 [email_address] Ian Fok +852 3114 6335 / +852 9348 4484 [email_address] Rhonda Taylor +852 3114 6335 [email_address] Americas Grayling New York Ivette Almeida  Tel: +(1) 917-302-9946  [email_address] Katarina Wenk-Bodenmiller  Tel: +(1) 646-284-9417 [email_address]   Australia and New Zealand Cape Public Relations Telephone: (02) 8218 2190 Sara Crowe M: 0437 161916 [email_address] Luke Roberts M: 0422 855 930 [email_address]

Más contenido relacionado

Más de The Economist Media Businesses

Intelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and society
Intelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and societyIntelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and society
Intelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and societyThe Economist Media Businesses
 
Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...
Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...
Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...The Economist Media Businesses
 
An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...
An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...
An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...The Economist Media Businesses
 
EIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schools
EIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schoolsEIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schools
EIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schoolsThe Economist Media Businesses
 
Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...
Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...
Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...The Economist Media Businesses
 
M&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruption
M&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruptionM&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruption
M&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruptionThe Economist Media Businesses
 
Briefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
Briefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimensionBriefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
Briefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimensionThe Economist Media Businesses
 
In Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocations
In Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocationsIn Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocations
In Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocationsThe Economist Media Businesses
 
Asia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and Responsibility
Asia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and ResponsibilityAsia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and Responsibility
Asia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and ResponsibilityThe Economist Media Businesses
 
Risks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For Now
Risks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For NowRisks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For Now
Risks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For NowThe Economist Media Businesses
 
In North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to Equities
In North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to EquitiesIn North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to Equities
In North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to EquitiesThe Economist Media Businesses
 
Balancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEA
Balancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEABalancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEA
Balancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEAThe Economist Media Businesses
 
EMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-term
EMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-termEMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-term
EMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-termThe Economist Media Businesses
 
A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...
A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...
A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...The Economist Media Businesses
 
Closing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that Works
Closing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that WorksClosing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that Works
Closing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that WorksThe Economist Media Businesses
 

Más de The Economist Media Businesses (20)

How boards can lead the cyber-resilient organisation
How boards can lead the cyber-resilient organisation How boards can lead the cyber-resilient organisation
How boards can lead the cyber-resilient organisation
 
Intelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and society
Intelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and societyIntelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and society
Intelligent Economies: AI's transformation of industries and society
 
Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...
Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...
Eiu collibra transforming data into action-the business outlook for data gove...
 
Communication barriers in the modern workplace
Communication barriers in the modern workplaceCommunication barriers in the modern workplace
Communication barriers in the modern workplace
 
An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...
An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...
An entrepreneur’s perspective: Today’s world through the eyes of the young in...
 
EIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schools
EIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schoolsEIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schools
EIU - Fostering exploration and excellence in 21st century schools
 
Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...
Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...
Accountability in Marketing - Linking Tactics to Strategy, Customer Focus and...
 
M&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruption
M&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruptionM&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruption
M&A in a changing world: Opportunities amidst disruption
 
Infographic: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
Infographic: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimensionInfographic: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
Infographic: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
 
Briefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
Briefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimensionBriefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
Briefing paper: Third-Party Risks: The cyber dimension
 
In Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocations
In Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocationsIn Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocations
In Asia-Pacific, low-yields and regulations drive new asset allocations
 
Asia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and Responsibility
Asia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and ResponsibilityAsia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and Responsibility
Asia-pacific Investors Seek Balance Between Risk and Responsibility
 
Risks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For Now
Risks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For NowRisks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For Now
Risks Drive Noth American Investors to Equities, For Now
 
In North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to Equities
In North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to EquitiesIn North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to Equities
In North America, Risks Drive Reallocation to Equities
 
Balancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEA
Balancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEABalancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEA
Balancing Long-term Liabilities with Market Opportunities in EMEA
 
EMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-term
EMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-termEMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-term
EMEA: Investors keeping their focus on the longer-term
 
Infographic: Demystifying ageing
Infographic: Demystifying ageingInfographic: Demystifying ageing
Infographic: Demystifying ageing
 
A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...
A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...
A Road to a Better Normal: Breast Cancer Patients and Survivors in the EU Wor...
 
Safe Cities Index 2017
Safe Cities Index 2017Safe Cities Index 2017
Safe Cities Index 2017
 
Closing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that Works
Closing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that WorksClosing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that Works
Closing the Gap: Designing and Delivering a Strategy that Works
 

Último

IndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global News
IndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global NewsIndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global News
IndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global NewsIndiaWest2
 
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.
Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.
Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.NaveedKhaskheli1
 
Experience the Future of the Web3 Gaming Trend
Experience the Future of the Web3 Gaming TrendExperience the Future of the Web3 Gaming Trend
Experience the Future of the Web3 Gaming TrendFabwelt
 
complaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfk
complaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfkcomplaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfk
complaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfkbhavenpr
 
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdfFIRST INDIA
 
Rohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for Justice
Rohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for JusticeRohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for Justice
Rohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for JusticeAbdulGhani778830
 
57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdf
57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdf57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdf
57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdfGerald Furnkranz
 

Último (8)

IndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global News
IndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global NewsIndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global News
IndiaWest: Your Trusted Source for Today's Global News
 
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
15042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.
Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.
Global Terrorism and its types and prevention ppt.
 
Experience the Future of the Web3 Gaming Trend
Experience the Future of the Web3 Gaming TrendExperience the Future of the Web3 Gaming Trend
Experience the Future of the Web3 Gaming Trend
 
complaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfk
complaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfkcomplaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfk
complaint-ECI-PM-media-1-Chandru.pdfra;;prfk
 
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
16042024_First India Newspaper Jaipur.pdf
 
Rohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for Justice
Rohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for JusticeRohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for Justice
Rohan Jaitley: Central Gov't Standing Counsel for Justice
 
57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdf
57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdf57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdf
57 Bidens Annihilation Nation Policy.pdf
 

January 2012 EIU Global Economic Forecast

  • 1. Global forecasting service Economic forecast summary – January 2012 www.gfs.eiu.com
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9.
  • 10. 20 25 15 12 12 - Tensions over currency manipulation lead to protectionism - Resumption of monetary stimulus leads to new asset bubbles - The Chinese economy crashes - The euro zone breaks up - The global economy falls into recession
  • 11. 10 12 9 8 8 + Oil prices slump + Unprecedented policy response in euro zone prevents contagion - Economic upheaval leads to widespread social and political unrest - The US dollar crashes - Oil prices remain at extremely high levels
  • 12.  
  • 13. Access analysis on over 200 countries worldwide with the Economist Intelligence Unit T he analysis and content in our reports is derived from our extensive economic, financial, political and business risk analysis of over 203 countries worldwide. You may gain access to this information by signing up, free of charge, at www.eiu.com Click on the country name to go straight to the latest analysis of that country: Further reports are available from Economist Intelligence Unit and can be downloaded at www.eiu.com G8 Countries * Canada * France * Germany * Italy * Japan * Russia * United Kingdom * United States of America BRIC Countries * Brazil * Russia * India * China CIVETS Countries * Colombia * Indonesia * Vietnam * Egypt * Turkey * South Africa Or view the list of all the countries . Should you wish to speak to a sales representative please telephone us: Americas: +1 212 698 9717 Asia: +852 2585 3888 Europe, Middle East & Africa: +44 (0)20 7576 8181 www.gfs.eiu.com
  • 14. Access analysis and forecasting of major industries with the Economist Intelligence Unit I n addition to the extensive country coverage the Economist Intelligence Unit provides each month industry and commodities information is also available. The key industry sectors we cover are listed below with links to more information on each of them. www.gfs.eiu.com Automotive Analysis and five-year forecast for the automotive industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Commodities This service offers analysis for 25 leading commodities. It delivers price forecasts for the next two years with forecasts of factors influencing prices such as production, consumption and stock levels. Analysis and forecasts are split by the two main commodity types: “Industrial raw materials” and “Food, feedstuffs and beverages”. Consumer goods Analysis and five-year forecast for the consumer goods and retail industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Energy Analysis and five-year forecast for the energy industries throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Financial services Analysis and five-year forecast for the financial services industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Healthcare Analysis and five-year forecast for the healthcare industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis Technology Analysis and five-year forecast for the technology industry throughout the world providing detail on a country by country basis
  • 15. Media Enquiries for the Economist Intelligence Unit www.gfs.eiu.com Europe, Middle East & Africa Grayling PR Jennifer Cole Tel: + 44 (0)20 7592 7933 Sophie Kriefman Tel: +44 (0)20 7592 7924 Ravi Sunnak Tel : +44 (0)207 592 7927 Mobile: + 44 (0)7515 974 786 Email: [email_address] Asia The Consultancy Tom Engel +852 3114 6337 / +852 9577 7106 [email_address] Ian Fok +852 3114 6335 / +852 9348 4484 [email_address] Rhonda Taylor +852 3114 6335 [email_address] Americas Grayling New York Ivette Almeida Tel: +(1) 917-302-9946 [email_address] Katarina Wenk-Bodenmiller Tel: +(1) 646-284-9417 [email_address] Australia and New Zealand Cape Public Relations Telephone: (02) 8218 2190 Sara Crowe M: 0437 161916 [email_address] Luke Roberts M: 0422 855 930 [email_address]

Notas del editor

  1. The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009 as it suffers from a massive drop in external demand, the impact of the global financial crisis and the unwinding of domestic imbalances. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009 and some restocking, after the extensive drawdown of inventories in the first half 2009.
  2. The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
  3. The euro zone is forecast to underperform the US in 2009, largely reflecting the severe weakness of Germany, which, like Japan, remains highly exposed to the global trade cycle. The US recovery will be driven partly by aggressive fiscal stimulus, which will make itself felt from the second half of 2009.
  4. Although we are forecasting steady growth in oil demand in 2011-13, ample supply and capacity will prevent significant price gains. While our forecast suggests markedly lower prices in 2009-13 than in 2008, they are still relatively high in both historical and real terms.
  5. Policy rates in the largest industrial economies are forecast to remain at ultra-loose levels at least until the end of 2010. Concerns not to inflate fresh bubbles will persuade the Federal Reserve (the US central bank) to start to tighten policy from 2011.