2. Future OfTechnology
In March 2000, about 304 million, or 5 percent
of the then global population had access to the
internet. By June 2012, about 2.4 billion users
were recorded, or 34.3 percent of the global
population i
. Concurrent with this growth, we
have become more avid consumers of
technology – both to that allied to the internet in
some way, and stand alone devices. The social
component of the technological revolution
cannot be underestimated. Indeed, the plethora
of communication methods that are now so
widely available and accessible have helped
redraw social norms. We rarely go more than 5 or
6 hours without some form of communication
with those who are central to our lives, whether
it be family or work colleagues ii
.
However 65 percent of the world isn’t even
online yet. In essence, we are only at the
beginning of a radical shift in society and in the
technologies themselves, in terms of diffusion,
utility and impactiii. The pace of change should
not be underestimated. The ITU estimates that
2.7 billion people, or 39 percent of the world’s
population (41 percent of households), will be
using the internet by end 2013 iv
.
The evolution of technology has undoubtedly
brought many benefits to consumers and
companies, with radical redesigning of processes,
work styles and industries not only possible, but
probable. The capacity of humankind to adapt at
an ever shortening interval to technology is also
being tested. Forms of technological addiction
have been documented in many countries and
84 percent worldwide say they couldn’t go a
single day without their mobile device in their
hand v
. On a greater, meta-scale, there’... is not
so much a concern about the nature of the
technologies themselves, but rather about
humans’ continuing ability to influence how they
operate to the benefit of the organisation, its
customers and other stakeholders,’ notes the
Economist Intelligence Unit vi
. An EIU report also
suggested that nearly four in ten worry that
‘...their organisations will be unable to keep up
with technology change and will lose their
competitive edge.’ On the other hand
technology has the potential to usher in a
happier, more prosperous world. Ultimately, as
stated by theorist Richard Florida ‘...it won’t be
technology that defines our future. It will be our
ability to mold it. vii
’
What’s driving change
Evolving Internet
l Prosaic though it may now seem with the
plethora of emerging technologies on the
horizon, yet the internet is far from
completing its evolution – both in terms of
its reach and its inherent nature.
l It has fast become a key platform for
transacting business globally and has
significantly reduced the ‘knowledge gap’
between organisations and the customers, as
well as potential competitors.
l It is estimated that by 2016 viii
there will be 10
billion mobile internet devices in use globally
by a forecast population of 7.3 billion.
l Growth in mobile devices is expected to drive
smartphone traffic by 2016 to 50 times the
size it was in 2012.
l There will be so much traffic generated
between 2015 and 2016 by smartphones,
tablets, and laptops that the amount of
internet data movement added for that year
alone will be three times the estimated size of
the entire mobile internet in 2012.
l For those without a robust internet presence
– including accessible mobile sites, growth
may be extremely hard to generate.
Emerging technology
Never before in history have we seen so much
new technology emerging and maturing all at
once. Innovative technology is redefining every
industry at both strategic and operational levels.
The impact of consumer technology combined
with technology that is helping to redraw supply
chains and optimise business procedures is
redrawing the landscape at an ever faster rate.
Against this backdrop of flux, four main pillars of
tomorrow’s technological ecosystem stand out.
The evolution of the internet, ‘social’, big data
and an increasingly mobile digitalism will all help
shape the contours of our future technology
engagement.
“The ITU
estimates that
2.7 billion
people, or 39
percent of the
world’s
population (41
percent of
households),
will be using
the internet by
end 2013”
Where we are now
Future OfTechnology
2
3. Future OfTechnology
Social
A lack of understanding, poorly designed
campaigns and a hitherto dearth of ROI metrics
have combined to create an image amongst
some organisations that social simply isn’t worth
it. Statistics seem to back up this ambivalence.
l 70 percent of global brands don’t engage
with consumers on social media.
l One quarter of global companies go as far as
closing their wall on Facebook to prevent fans
from asking any questions at all ix
.
As can be seen, even in the narrowly defined
sense of social being a marketing extension,
many organisations are struggling to
meaningfully engage with the medium.
l ‘The more significant value proposition of
social requires business transformation.
l Maintaining a Facebook page and Twitter
account is relatively straightforward and
necessary, but it usually won’t generate
significant growth, revenue, or profits by
itself either.
l The more profound and higher order aspects
of social media including peer production of
product development, customer care, and
marketing require deeper rethinking of
business processes x
.’
l In other words, businesses need to become
social, rather than just using social channels.
l Becoming truly social may yield significant
value. McKinsey estimates that widespread
use of social technologies could yield $1.3
trillion per year of new value into the
economy xi
.
l Two-thirds of that value would come from
improved social collaboration within or
between companies, which could translate
into a 20 to 25 percent improvement in the
productivity of knowledge workers.
l 98 percent of the value for professional
services could be derived from improved
social collaboration within or between
companies. ‘The industries with the highest
percentage of interactions workers have the
highest spread of profits per employee,’
notes Michael Chui, one of the authors of the
report.
l Forrester Research says the sales of software
to run corporate social networks will grow 61
percent a year and be a $6.4 billion business
by 2016 xii
.
l Despite this growth Gartner estimates that ‘…
only 25 percent of businesses will routinely
use social network analysis to improve
performance and productivity through 2015
xiii
.’
l The ROI of social technology becomes
positive when 15 to 20 percent of workers are
using it notes Harvard Business Review xiv
.
Mobile
l Ciscoxv estimates that by 2016 there will be
10 billion mobile internet devices in use
globally by a forecast population of 7.3
billion.
l Growth in mobile devices is expected to drive
smartphone traffic to 50 times the size it is in
2012 by 2016.
l Mobile network capacity will need to increase
20 to 25 times to handle the growing load.
l Chinese telecom, Huawei, predicts their
traffic levels will rise 500-fold by 2020 xvi
.
l M-Commerce would appear to be one
particularly fruitful area, with more than $10
billion forecast to be spent on non-digital
goods via mobile phones in 2012, and $31
billion by 2016.
The whole notion of mobile is set to change
however, and this change has the potential to
radically increase the type of numbers seen
above.
l In the future we will have screens not just in
the palm of our hands, but all around us,
according to Matias Duarte, Google’s Director
of Android User Experience xvii
.
l He suggests that ‘...in the future, we will look
at the gestures of your entire body, facial
expressions, arms, all of the fingers that you
have, and you’re going to have screens not
just in the palm of your hand, but all around
you.’
l IDATE, a consultancy, believes that the
number of people accessing the internet via
“Growth in
mobile devices
is expected to
drive
smartphone
traffic to 50
times the size
it is in 2012 by
2016”
Future OfTechnology
3
4. mobile devices will overtake the number
using fixed-line connections in mid-2014 xviii
.
l The Economist suggests that the shift
towards a more mobile internet could break
down the assumption of the internet as ‘...a
separate place, accessed through the portal of
a PC screen, the internet is fast becoming an
extra layer overlaid on reality, accessed by a
device that is always with you (and may
eventually be part of you). In the coming
years that will be the most profound change
of all. xix
’
l 1.3 billion people are forecast to work
remotely using mobile technology by 2015.
That’s 37 percent of the entire workforce xx
.
Big Data
‘I think creativity, especially business creativity,
comes out of great insight. And obtaining a
different level of insights (from data) will be one
of the truly powerful opportunities of the next
few years.’
Brian Millar, director of strategy, Sense
Worldwide xxi
l IDC xxii
estimates that the amount of data
managed by enterprises will grow by a factor
of 50 percent over the next decade. 95
percent of this data is multi-structured in
nature and is increasing at an exponential
rate that far outpaces the growth of
structured data.
l Gartner is predicting total data growth of
800 percent to 2018 xxiii
.
l 80 percent of this data will be
multistructured -emails, texts, pictures, log
data, social media data, XML files, videos,
audio. Integration will require increased
collaboration within the business and
between vendor and business.
l From 130 billion gigabytes in 2005, the size
of the digital universe could reach 40 trillion
gigabytes by 2020 xxiv
l Despite this increase in data, the number of
people available to manage this growth is
expected to increase 1.4 fold xxv
.
l A 2011 report from McKinsey & Company’s
Business Technology Office predicted that
demand for analytical talent in the U.S. would
exceed supply by 50 to 60 percent by 2018.
l The United States alone faces a shortage of
140,000 to 190,000 people with deep
analytical skills as well as 1.5 million
managers and analysts to analyse big data
and make decisions based on their findings.
l The growth of internet connected devices
and sensors, projected to reach 50 billion by
2020, will have a huge impact on availability
of real-time information xxvi
.
l McKinsey xxvii
identifies five broad ways in
which big data can create value.
l By making information transparent and
usable at a much higher frequency.
l Allowing organisations to collect more
accurate and detailed performance
information on everything from product
inventories to sick days, and therefore expose
variability and boost performance.
l Allowing ever-narrower segmentation of
customers.
l Sophisticated analytics can substantially
improve decision-making.
l Used to improve the development of the next
generation of products and services.
l It is also estimated that users of services
enabled by personal-location data could
capture $600 billion in consumer surplus
alone thanks to big data.
l The opportunities are so significant that the
EIU suggests that ‘...for those who can master
it, big data will become a business of its own
xxviii
.’
l New business models based on specialist
analytics services are likely to emerge as a
result.
l Indeed Hal Varian, chief economist at Google
believes that big data could revolutionise
public-private partnerships. He states that ‘…
nearly every large company has a real-time
data warehouse and has more timely data on
the economy than our government agencies.
In the next decade we will see a public/private
Future OfTechnology
4
“Sophisticated
analytics can
substantially
improve
decision-
making.”
5. partnership that allows the government to
take advantage of some of these private-
sector data stores. This is likely to lead to a
better informed, more pro-active fiscal and
monetary policy xxix
.’
l The European Commission estimates that
government data alone could add €40bn
($55bn) a year to the European economy by
stimulating the growth of new information
services xxx
.
l The sheer number of devices, the falling cost
of sensors and evolution of the Internet of
Things could bring up a scenario of
‘infinite data xxxi
.’Our available computational
power and budget for acquiring new data
sources and analysing existing ones is far
from infinite however. Rapid identification
and acting upon the most relevant and
significant features obtainable in a given set
of data will become a core competency in
many organisations.
An example of how Big Data might empower a
given organisation lies in the ability of HR to
deliver a robust set of predictive analytics. It is
possible that future data sets might be able to
predict xxxii
:
l Future turnover within an organisation or
even within certain geographies or
departments of an organisation.
l Which groups of employees or individual
employees or job candidates are a higher
than average ‘turnover’ risk.
l Which candidates and new hires are likely to
be ‘top performers’ based on their profile.
l It could also predict which hiring channels are
likely to yield the best results for a given
organisation.
As with other technologies that were supposed
to empower the organisation and individual
users, such as email, there is a need to
implement such structures with care. Jake
Porway, the founder of DataKind suggests that
his ‘...biggest fear is that data science is used as a
blunt tool and that people don’t understand the
cultural implications of quantifying our world
xxxiii
.’
The Confluence of the Big Four
The confluence of the evolving internet, mobile,
social and big data ultimately means that ‘...at
the heart of this change, a business must make
sure its processes connect people with
information, enable greater collaboration and
encourage knowledge sharing. Business leaders
need to choose partners that will help them to
implement the changes effectively over time. It
is no longer viable to implement new
technologies simply to benefit from short term
efficiency gains xxxiv
.’
Other emerging technology
Gaming dynamics
The potential for gaming dynamics, or
gamification as some have termed it, to optimise
business processes is being explored by many
organisations, with many emerging uses.
l Perhaps one of the most significant uses
relates to training and work based learning.
‘Serious gaming simulations are the richest
environments that you can imagine and
provide all kinds of mechanisms for
optimising learning,’ says Wim Westera,
professor, Open Universiteit.
l According to 47 percent of Media and
Entertainment executives polled by
McKinsey, gamification will be the best way
to engage with consumers in by 2015.
l Gartner suggests that 50 percent of
companies involved in innovation and new
product development will ‘gamify’ those
processes by 2015 xxxv
.
l As a key tenet of the engagement economy,
Deloitte states that ‘…gamification can
provide a reason for a customer to visit a
website or a store more often. It could give
employees a new way to obtain the feedback
they desire on job performance. It could
connect customers in a way that makes them
feel rewarded and respected for their
opinions and support of your business or
product xxxvi
.’
l An estimated 70 percent of the top 2,000
public companies in the world will have at
least one gamified application by 2014 xxxvii
.
Future OfTechnology
5
“According to
47 percent of
Media and
Entertainment
executives
polled by
McKinsey,
gamification
will be the best
way to engage
with
consumers in
by 2015.”
6. Future OfTechnology
6
l For industries that have traditionally been
slow on the uptake of newly available
technology, the impact could be pronounced.
For example, Gartner xxxviii
believes that ‘...the
application of game mechanics will give P&C
and life insurers a new tool to change agent
behaviours, create stronger partnerships with
agents and generate new sales. Insurers that
fail to develop competencies will struggle to
compete in this new environment.’
NFC
Near Field Communication (NFC) and mobile
payments are often grouped together by
analysts, and given how the technology was first
implemented in the early 2000’s this seems
sensible.
l More than 10 percent of mobile phone
owners have already made payments using
their phones, according to ComScore data
xxxix
.
l According to Pew, NFC smartphone
payments will overtake cash and credit card
transactions by 2020 xl
.
l 65 percent of the Pew panel agree that NFC
would be widespread by 2020.
l 100 million NFC-enabled mobile devices were
shipped in 2012
However, the technology has a wider utility and
we may see implementations along other lines
before we see a truly flourishing mobile payment
system.
l Forrester suggests that NFC won’t reach
critical mass, or be used by 15 percent to 25
percent of the global population, until 2015-
2017.
l There are, however, numerous areas in which
NFC could be used by organisations in the
interim, as noted by CIO magazine xli
.
l NFC is currently being tested by a
variety of organisations who want to
use smartphones as next-generation
access cards.
l The technology also holds countless
opportunities for improving public
services and transit systems.
l The modern retail experience could be
enhanced through the combination of
wireless coupons, loyalty cards and
payment options.
l For marketing, NFC offers a way of
quickly accessing NFC-enabled material,
such as advertisements, and collect
additional information on products or
services.
l Perhaps more pertinently for the
majority of organisations, NFC can also
be used as a short-range technology to
exchange files and content between
two or more devices. This functionality
could engender easier collaboration in
corporate environments.
Cloud computing
Although distinct from big data, there can little
argument that they, together with mobile
computing, display a significant
symbiosis. Sanjay Poonen, writing in GigaOM
(2013), believes that ‘...the interdependence of
mobile, big data and cloud is undeniable, and will
only multiply as data growth and mobile use
continue. Yet our strategic thinking lags behind
the evidence xlii
.’
l Given the computing bandwidth and
resource needed to accommodate and
process big data, it could even be argued that
the exponential growth in data is one of the
first major pull factors of the cloud.
l Synchronisation between devices gives rise to
the notion of personal clouds.
l An example of how the cloud aligns with
other technologies is through data analytics.
The cloud based business analytics market
could be worth $16.52 billion by 2018, which
is more than triple its 2013 size xliii
.
l The overall revenue from total sales of cloud
computing is forecast to increase from
around $20bn in 2012 to almost $150bn by
2020. This represents 8 percent of all
corporate technology spend xliv
.
l Gartner’s Ed Anderson suggests growth may
“65 percent of
the Pew panel
agree that NFC
would be
widespread by
2020.”
7. Future OfTechnology
7
be more dramatic. By 2016, he says that it’s
expected to be a $207 billion industry xlv
.
l Reasons for such growth include the
perception of increased business agility,
vendor choice, and access to next-generation
architectures xlvi
.
l Indeed, a 2012 ZdNet survey xlvii
found that
efficiency is the main driver of cloud
adoption.
l At 43 percent, backup and archiving was the
number one use case, followed by:
l Business continuity (25 percent),
l Collaboration tools (22 percent) and;
l Big data processing (19 percent).
l Customised clouds, integrated hybrid clouds
and on-premise cloud installations could all
continue grow in significance as cloud
adoption continues.
The benefits of the cloud may also diffuse more
generally, and accrue to functions beyond those
which it was implemented in the hope of
alleviating stresses and inefficiencies.
l A 2012 Microsoft-funded IDC study shows
businesses that move to the cloud are freeing
up time and money to invest in innovation
and job creation.
l It predicts that cloud computing will create
nearly 14 million new jobs between 2011 and
2015 and that by as early as 2015, business
revenues from IT innovation enabled by the
cloud could reach $1.1 trillion a year xlviii
.
l It is estimated that by 2020, one third of all
data will live in or pass through the cloud xlix
.
l Accenture suggests that the cloud ‘...supports
operational and technological innovation by
moving an organisation more briskly through
the experimental or prototyping. In a cloud
model, companies acquire processing,
storage or services when they need them,
then can quickly decommission those
resources when they are not needed. Such a
model supports ‘seed and grow’ activities
and faster prototyping of ideas l
.’
Consumerisation of IT
l One of the most significant technological
trends of our time results from the mass
adoption of consumer IT in our daily lives.
l This trend is as socially driven in its nature as
much as it is technological.
l The emergent Bring Your Own Device (BYOD)
movement demonstrates the interplay
between the cloud and mobile technologies.
l Forward thinking organisations are taking
advantage of this synchronicity and defining
strategies for it.
l In 2010, Gartner claimed that
consumerisation of IT would be the most
significant trend affecting IT during the next
ten years li
.
l Easy to use, accessible, and pervasive
technology has the ability to enable truly
flexible working and new configurations of
employees as well as enabling (and perhaps
necessitating) new forms of operating and
business models.
l Employees will increasingly seek solutions
that work for them rather than ensure their
work and processes conform to
technologically bound rules.
l Technology (info, cogno, bio, nano) will
continue to introduce changes in personal
capacity and lifestyles, while ICT will underpin
much of society as well as commerce lii
.
l Depending on the framework and strategic
alignment of an organisation, BYOD has the
potential of reducing organisational
complexity. Conversely, it also complicates
issues surrounding privacy and security of
information.
l As a result, consumerisation of IT ‘...requires a
strategic approach that reduces security risks,
financial exposure, and management chaos
liii
.’
l As recently as 2001, technology spending
outside the IT budget averaged 20 percent liv
.
l PwC estimates that somewhere between 15
percent up to 30 percent of IT spending now
occurs outside the standard consolidated
“The emergent
BringYour
Own Device
(BYOD)
movement
demonstrates
the interplay
between the
cloud and
mobile
technologies.”
8. Future OfTechnology
8
budget of the IT department lv
.
l 40 percent of devices used to access business
applications in August 2011 were personally
owned lvi
.
l By 2020, the total technology spend outside
the consolidated IT department could reach
90 percent lvii
.
The cultural and organisational implications of
this are significant, as JP Rangaswami, chief
scientist at BT Group suggests, ‘...the enterprise
has to learn to design for loss of control lviii
.’
There is emerging evidence of this happening.
l 25 percent of enterprises are forecast to use
corporate app stores by 2017 lix
.
l 50 percent of businesses will have their own
app stores by 2020 lx
.
l Whilst permitting multiple device access,
these hubs will provide companies with
greater control over the software their staff
use.
l By 2016, more than 50 percent of mobile
apps deployed will be hybrid lxi
. Organisations
are increasingly realising that BYOD is their
employees’ way of using technology more
efficiently, and that they need to support
multiple platforms as the BYOD trend gains
momentum.
l By 2015 mobile app development projects
are forecast to outnumber native PC projects
by a ratio of 4-to-1 lxii
.
3D Printing
3D printing, or additive manufacturing, is an
object creation technology where the shape of
the objects are formed through a process of
building up layers of material until all of the
details are in place. 3D printing is estimated to
grow to a $3 billion industry by 2018. Its longer
term growth is more contentious, with
advocates seeing it as a paradigm changing
technology whilst others claim its impact will
remain localised. ‘Some people think additive
manufacturing will overturn many of the
economics of production because it pays no
heed to unit labour costs or traditional
economies of scale. Designs can be quickly
changed, so the technology enables flexible
production and mass customisation,’ notes the
Economist lxiii
Certainly as the technology
evolves, so does its scope and possible impact.
l Sainsbury’s IT department is currently
preparing its strategy for 3D printing, which
it predicts will make a radical change to the
supermarket business lxiv
.
l Sainsbury’s IT director, Rob Fraser, suggests
that he is ‘…prepar(ing) for the fact that
consumers may soon not want to buy pre-
packaged iPhone cases of the shelf, but build
and design their own.’
l Ford Motor now puts 3D printers at
workstations for its engineers. Furthermore,
the car company plans to put the smaller
MakerBot replicators at every engineer’s desk
in the coming months lxv
.
Chris Dibona, Open Source Programs Manager at
Google states that ‘…you’d better see 3D printer
as China on your desk lxvi
.’ Indeed the
manufacturing, as opposed to prototyping,
capacity looks set to grow.
l Wohlers Associates states that more than 20
percent of the output of 3D printers is now
final products rather than prototypes (2012)
lxvii
.
l It predicts this figure will rise to 50 percent by
2020.
l The price of 3D printers could fall to €300 by
2015.
l Beyond 2018 it is possible that we could print
certain metals or replacement parts for use in
the medical sector.
l Airbus has announced plans for 3D printed
commercial planes by 2050 lxviii
.
l Danish architects Eentileen have used a
computer, a printer and 820 sheets of
plywood to build a 125 square meter (1,345
square foot) ‘printable’ home in four weeks.
The designers and fabricators are touting the
process of mass-customising houses and
responsibly producing them on site lxix
.
l It is possible that a construction boom, using
these principles, will occur in the not too
distant future.
“The price of
3D printers
could fall to
€300 by
2015.”
9. Future OfTechnology
9
The future impact beyond strictly manufacturing
industries will be uneven, but all industries will
need to be aware of how the technology could
impact the competitive landscape.
l Marc Andreessen suggests that due to
leverage, few retailers can survive a decline of
20 to 30 percent in revenues lxx
. If this holds
true then 3D printing could plausibly be the
vector by which this scenario is manifested.
l In November 2012 Dave Evans, Chief Futurist
for computer giant Cisco, predicted that
consumers would be able to download
‘recipes’ for 3D printed food products
‘roughly 15 years’ from now lxxi
. This could
help mitigate the entrance of contaminants
into the final product.
l Widespread use of 3D printers ‘...could signal
a fundamental change in the distribution of
physical goods, much as the development of
the Web was a fundamental change in the
delivery of digital content,’ says Stacey
Higginbotham of GigaOM lxxii
.
l Professor Neil Gershenfeld of MIT states that
in the future ‘…digital fabrication will allow
individuals to design and produce tangible
objects on demand, wherever and whenever
they need them lxxiii
.’
l Professor Gershenfeld suggests 3D printing
may already be passé. ‘The revolution is the
ability to turn data into things and things
into data.’
l Unlike 3-D printers today, these will be able
to build complete functional systems at once,
with no need for parts to be assembled. For
example, today’s printers can print parts of a
drone. Tomorrow’s, posits Professor
Gershenfeld, could print the whole drone,
ready to fly.
l ‘Today’s digital manufacturing machines are
still in their infancy, but tomorrow they could
be used to make (almost) anything,
anywhere. ‘
Augmented reality
l Augmented Reality (AR) is defined by Frost &
Sullivan as ‘... a real-time augmented view of
the environment through digital data such as
text, sound, graphics, video and navigation
systems that increase users’ interactivity with
the local environment lxxiv
.’
l Current mediums include smartphones but
bionic lenses and Google Glass type products
are all emerging.
l Semico forecasts that revenues related to this
technology will approach $600 billion by
2016 lxxv
.
l Michell Prunty, Consumer Analyst at Semico
lxxvi
suggests that ‘...augmented reality isn’t
just a new fad that will only impact
marketing firms. It’s a new way to see and
interact with technology that everyone
should be aware of.’
l ‘There is going to be an increased need for
new software platforms, video and audio
processors, NAND and mobile DRAM. If
you’re developing for the consumer or
automotive industries, you must be involved
with this market early on.’
l By 2020 103 million automobiles could
contain AR technology.
l Tomi Ahonen suggested in a TEDx
presentation that by 2020 there will be one
billion AR users lxxvii
.
l Other studies suggest that nearly three billion
AR apps are expected to be downloaded by
2020 lxxviii
.
l AR is poised to radically redefine and even
extend our business and mobility options,
social interactions and experiences in the
future.
l If the noted projections above prove correct,
this technology could shift human behaviour
in quite profound ways.
l ‘The ease of accessing a constant rich stream
of data related to one’s immediate
environment will change our relationship to
technology and to each other lxxix
.’
Virtual reality
l Virtual reality (VR) is already established as
an effective and widely implemented training
tool on military bases, within architecture
firms, and in medical schools.
“Current
mediums
include
smartphones
but bionic
lenses and
Google Glass
type products
are all
emerging.”
10. Future OfTechnology
10
l Academics have also begun to use it in a
quest to solve some fundamental questions
about the mind relating to perception.
l It has been noted that VR headsets have been
around for decades, but mass adoption has
been hindered by their bulky size and cost.
l More recent iterations such as the Oculus Rift
is pioneering development of a potential
whole new medium for the gaming industry
lxxx
.
l Indeed, Valve’s Chet Faliszek believes that
virtual reality could soon become a focus for
the gaming industry lxxxi
.
l However important gaming is intrinsically
(for fun) and with regards to simulation and
training for a multitude of industries (serious
gaming), this is only one example of the
potential impact VR could have on human
behaviour.
Jeremy Bailenson is the founding director of
Stanford University’s Virtual Human Interaction
Lab and an associate professor in the
Department of Communication at Stanford lxxxii
.
His research goes beyond how we use VR to
understand human functioning (as in a medical
lab) to assess how VR could be used to induce
change in human actions themselves.
Research has shown that Americans, in common
with many nationalities, save insufficiently for
retirement, in part because they feel little
connection to their future selves. Bailenson
found, however, that college students who were
introduced to avatars of themselves morphed to
look like senior citizens were motivated to put
aside twice as much money for retirement.
In other studies out of Bailenson’s lab, subjects
who were shown recognisable avatars of
themselves exercising and rapidly losing weight
later voluntarily exercised more; subjects who
saw themselves being sedentary and steadily
gaining weight were also motivated to hit the
gym.
Similarly studies show that subjects who cut
down a tree in virtual reality - who felt the
chainsaw buzz in their hands, watched the trunk
fall, and felt the vibrations of its collapse on the
forest floor - later used 20 percent fewer paper
napkins.
In one experiment conducted with another
scholar, Sun Joo Anh, Bailenson explored what
would happen if companies started grabbing
images of consumers and incorporating them
into tailored advertisements. ‘When you see
yourself in advertising using a product you’ve
never touched, and loving it - we call this ‘self-
endorsing’ - does that make you like the product
later on?,’ Bailenson asks. ‘We found the answer
to be yes.’
Holograms
l PFSK describes holograms as ‘...essentially
recorded moving images that are etched into
a medium with lasers split by mirrors, then
projected onto a special transparent film
angled such that it appears to the audience
that the image is floating on its own, and
creating the effect of a person standing in
front of them lxxxiii
.’
l Although highly visual, the true value
perhaps lies in the technology as a
communications medium.
l The International Olympic Committee has
already commissioned a report lxxxiv
on how
holograms of events could be projected from
one stadium to another at the 2024 Olympic
Games.
l The report ‘...predict(s) that it will be possible
to show holograms in a stadium within 10 to
15 years and the concept of a ‘live’ event
being projected via holograms into other
stadiums filled with spectators to be a
realistic prediction.’
l According to the report, if a viewer is
watching a running final at home, they will
see a speedometer on the screen showing
how fast the athletes are running.
l Scientists at HP’s Large-Scale Integrated
Photonics lab have demonstrated (March
2012) a cheap way to project colourful, no-
glasses-required 3D images and video on
small screens.
l HP’s prototype works from a variety of
angles, using so-called directional pixels that
offer different views as you move. Project a
globe on this screen, for example, and new
continents will come into view as you circle
it. It’s a full-motion hologram effect.
“It has been
noted thatVR
headsets have
been around
for decades,
but mass
adoption has
been hindered
by their bulky
size and cost.”
11. Future OfTechnology
11
l HP lab head Raymond Beausoleil,
emphasizing that the technology is still in the
prototype stage suggests that applications
could be wide ranging. ‘We envision people
using it for new graphical user interfaces,
interactive visualizations, mapping, and
pharmaceutical models lxxxv
.’
l Research suggests that by 2025
‘...holographic teleconferencing and virtual
‘dry runs’ of projects will consign old office
templates to the dustbin lxxxvi
.’
l ‘In their place, multiple surfaces in the home,
or shared work hub, will be coated with
digitally enabled smart paint that will project
3D avatars of colleagues at a single touch.’
Interfaces
It has been remarked that the future is already
here, but is not evenly distributed. One possible
reading of this is that developments in the lab
will take several years to hit commercial maturity.
l The advent of graphene brings forth the
premise of folding flexible screens on our
devices lxxxvii
.
l The MIT Media Lab’s Recompose project is
already looking at how a physical surface can
change in response to gesture-based
commands lxxxviii
.
l Daniel Burrus a leading futurist on tech
trends and innovation suggests that such
interfaces will appear on smartphones as a
matter of course. ‘Your smartphone will have
a 3D display and a 3D web browser, and you
won’t need special glasses to view it. So
instead of just viewing web pages on your
smart phone, you’ll be able to go into
environments (or stores or showrooms) and
manoeuvre around in them, just as you do on
devices like the Xbox lxxxix
.’
l Mr Burrus also believes that some
smartphones will be screen-less. Not only
does it have utility in reducing the need for a
battery, but advances in voice activation
make it a potentially user friendlier interface.
l With Apple’s Siri and Google Voice Actions
and Voice Search, early versions of voice-
controlled devices are already here.
l The screen-less smartphone will be touch and
voice activated, with a connection to a
personalised ultra intelligent agent, able to
verbally give you the information, such as
turn-by-turn directions, reading your email to
you and so on.
l The repercussions of a screen-less
smartphone would be considerable,
especially for app developers xc
.
l Future smartphones may have the ability to
be used in biometric security.
l Future smartphones may also have the ability
to ‘...link with smart surfaces just by putting
them beside each other. The smartphone will
be able to connect with voice operated, touch
screen devices like desktop computers,
allowing you to control the device using your
phone xci
.’
Immersive technologies
A panel representing Imperial College London,
the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT),
the University of Washington, and the UK
government, concluded that by 2025,
technology will allow us to conjure workspaces
out of thin air by using interactive surfaces xcii
.
l Leah Buechley, a professor at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s
Media Lab suggests that within a decade or
two, interfaces will be ubiquitous and
increasingly immersive xciii
.
l One example is her team’s 2010 project,
electronic wallpaper. The wallpaper’s
electronic components are painted on, so
they look and feel like wallpaper, but they are
actually giant interactive screens.
l Putting a hand on a papered wall will send a
wireless signal to a computer, tablet or
smartphone, which can then play bird sounds
or dim or brighten lights on the wall.
Indeed, our wired environment is set to become
both more interactive and more immersive. IBM,
in its annual 5 in 5 technology forecast, predicts
that by 2018 we will see computers with xciv
:
“With Apple’s
Siri and Google
Voice Actions
andVoice
Search, early
versions of
voice-
controlled
devices are
already here.”
12. Future OfTechnology
12
l A sense of touch
l ‘Texture data fed into a machine’s
piezoelectric drivers can re-create
vibrations and temperature on a touch
screen can simulate that feel.’ Some of
this capability is available now in
rudimentary form in computer games
where the controller shakes to indicate
an on-screen car collision.
l A sense of contextual awareness
l If a computer can instead really see and
understand a given image for what it
represents, it can accelerate the whole
process of analysis, which could be of
value to the medical industry, security
and marketing.
l Audible capabilities
l Just as computers need to see images as
whole entities, IBM thinks they also
need to hear total sounds including
ambient noise, words, or music to get
the full story. ‘It’s not necessarily just
hearing words, hearing is also
background noise …If a cell phone caller
is in a car with an engine running at
2,000 rpm, you might even be able to
tell if the driver is stuck in traffic or
moving smoothly,’ notes IBM.
l Digitised taste buds
l An understanding of the chemical
elements of food could help people
improve their health outlook by
substituting in healthier options with
similar flavour and texture profiles to
popular but unhealthy foods.
l A sense of smell
l IBM believes it possible that computers
will be able to tell from your breath your
health situation, and whether, for
example, you are likely to get a cold.
Likewise, this technology could detect
contaminants and toxins before they
hit unacceptable levels, potentially
reconfiguring elements of public health
into prevention rather than cure.
Robotics
Robots have the curious distinction, along with
flying cars, as being consigned to a ‘history of the
future’ in many people’s imaginations. That is to
say that they have remained, prediction after
failed prediction as something for the future.
Although our current reality may not match our
preconceived ideas, the industry has been
growing exponentially, ‘...with numerous
endeavours focused on integrating robots into
the home. Future robots will assist with chores,
provide entertainment, enhance telepresence,
become companions, and assist with health and
elder care xcv
.’
l Roboticist Hans Moravec believes that by
mid-2020s, we will create humanoid robots
that can express reasoning, emotion, and are
eager to perform household tasks xcvi
.
l Experts predict computer power could match
the ability of human brains by 2029; and
then surpass us during the 2030s xcvii
.
l The South Korean Ministry of Information
and Communication has predicted that every
household will have a robot by 2020 xcviii
.
l According to the U.S. Department of Labor,
robotics are the future, and will comprise 60
percent of all science, mathematics, and
engineering jobs by 2018 xcix
.
l A review of news headlines from 2012 reveals
editorials concerning a robot stand-up
comedian, robot prison guards in South
Korea, and even robot sex workers. These
stories tend to suggest that robots are
perhaps evolving into what we had originally
conceived them asc.
l During a TED conference, Baxter (a robot
aimed to assist, rather than replace human
workers) was cited as a leading indicator of
the potential for machine learning to
augment the human experience ci
.
l Launched in 2012 and priced at $22,000,
Baxter can be trained to do assembly-line
tasks without programming. It’s animated
eyes reveal where its attention is focussed, so
as not to surprise humans with its movement
and it is also spatially aware cii
.
“Experts
predict
computer
power could
match the
ability of
human brains
by 2029; and
then surpass
us during the
2030s xcvii
.”
13. Batteries
l Jeff Chamberlain of the Joint Center for
Energy Storage Research believes it may still
be possible to double the amount of energy a
regular lithium-ion battery of given weight
can store, and also reduce its cost by 30-40
percent ciii
.
l McKinsey estimates that lithium-ion
batteries might be competitive in electric cars
(vs conventional internal-combustion
engines) by 2020 civ
.
l Waste sulphur, common at oil sands
extraction sites, is being transformed into
lightweight plastic for use in electric
batteries. The plastic created is used to
manufacture lithium-sulphur (Li-S) batteries
cv
.
l Li-S batteries are lighter than current lithium-
ion batteries used in electric and hybrid
vehicles today making them an attractive
option for the transportation industry to
consider.
l Prof Donald Sadoway, from the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, has
been working on one technology designed to
sequester electricity and then releasing it on
demand (something the Grid does not do
well). This technology is in the form of liquid
metal batteries cvi
.
l A commercial prototype should be ready by
2014.
l Liquid metal batteries could find uses within
a variety of electricity markets. Grid storage
could be to help make renewables such as
wind, wave and solar power competitive with
traditional energy sources.
l The BBC reports that ‘...Sadoway’s group has
also looked at one model in which liquid
metal batteries are installed in the basements
of skyscrapers in Manhattan. Experts
estimate that within three years (by 2015),
the ability to get electricity in Manhattan is
going to be exceeded by demand from the
islandcvii.’
l In addition to liquid metal, other battery
technologies for grid-scale storage include
redox flow, lithium-ion and sodium-ion
batteries.
What could be the
impact
Evolution of the internet
Whilst an ‘end point’ for the ongoing evolution
of the internet is impossible to predict, Cisco cviii
(2013) proffers that ‘The Internet of Everything’,
a term it uses to describe the confluence of
people, processes, data and physical things,
could be an intermediate platform.
l Cisco believes the IoE could create $14.4
trillion of value for companies and industries
over the next 10 years.
l Even if this forecast proves to even only half
accurate, the impact would still be profound.
l $14.4 trillion represents 21 percent of
aggregate growth in the profits of all the
companies in the world.
Challenges of technology for the
organisation
l McKinsey suggests that, as with earlier waves
of IT innovation, it could take years for the
benefits to be realised as management and
organisational innovation must accompany
technological innovation cix
.
l Bain acknowledges that many organisations
possess ‘...an IT environment that is a
patchwork of legacy systems and ill-suited
technologies.’
l It continues by noting that ‘...in most
companies, the pressure to create new IT-
enabled functionality usually takes
precedence over fixing what’s broken or
underperforming.’
l ‘The perverse result of piling new capabilities
on top of an increasingly rickety foundation
is to add unnecessary complexity and drive up
costs, making it harder for IT to serve even
basic business requests in a timely manner.’
l As a result of this unnecessary complexity, 85
percent or more of total IT outlays are
focused on maintaining existing systems,
leaving just 15 percent for new initiatives.
Future OfTechnology
13
“$14.4 trillion
represents 21
percent of
aggregate
growth in the
profits of all
the companies
in the world.”
14. Future OfTechnology
14
l There can be little doubt that such an
approach not only makes work more difficult
to complete effectively, but also constricts
innovation and leaves value locked away and
unrealised.
l There also remains the possibility that a new
big bang style implementation meant to rid
the old complexity and replace with a single
new version of the truth becomes increasingly
alluring.
l In some cases this could have a catastrophic
effect. Bent Flyvbjerg and Alexander Budzier
at the University of Oxford believe that a
botched IT project will destroy a major
corporation in the near future cx
.
l They suggest that calculating the risk
associated with an IT project using the average
cost overrun is like creating building standards
using the average size of earthquakes in that
both are bound to be inadequate.
l ‘IT projects are now so big, and they touch so
many aspects of an organization, that they
pose a singular new risk….They have sunk
whole corporations. Even cities and nations
are in peril,’ state the academics.
l IT problems with Hong Kong’s new airport in
the late 1990s reportedly cost the local
economy some $600 million.
l They conclude that it’s only a matter of time
before something much more dramatic occurs.
‘It will be no surprise if a large, established
company fails in the coming years because of
an out-of-control IT project. In fact, the data
suggest that one or more will.’
l Perhaps the biggest area of concern lies
between ‘...disconnected systems (for
example, between front and back-office
functions), and technologies evolving faster
than the processes developed to use them cxi
.’
l As a result of these technological changes,
workforces will probably become far more
dispersed. Workers will have diverse careers in
many different locations, working for shorter
periods on projects.
l PwC even predicts that the number of host
locations a company uses will increase 50% by
2020 cxii
.
Challenges of technology for
individuals
l 82 percent of respondents to an EIU survey cxiii
suggest that the time they spend using e-mail
has increased in the past three years, and over
half say the increase has been substantial.
l ‘While acknowledging the hugely beneficial
effects technology has had on their employees’
productivity, efficiency and communication,
little more than one-third say it’s freed up
employees’ time to be more innovative.’
l ‘The concerns also extend to a broader plane:
while eight in ten believe that human-
technology interaction will prove hugely
productive for society, about the same number
also insist that it will also pose profound
societal questions about their respective roles
in the workplace.’
Ubiquity
l John Villasenorcxiv, an electrical engineer at
the University of California has studied the
plummeting cost of computer data storage
and concluded that ‘...it will soon be
technically feasible and affordable to record
and store everything that can be recorded
about what everyone in a country says or
does.’
l Mr. Villasenor estimates that to store the audio
from telephone calls made by an average
person in the course of a year would require
about 3.3 gigabytes and cost just 17 cents to
store, a price that is expected to fall to 2 cents
by 2015.
l Storing video takes far more space, but the
price is dropping steadily.
l With costs dropping and data volumes
increasing, implicit opportunities arise for
organisations but also a significant challenge
in organising sufficient analytical talent to
extract value from this data and doing so in a
cooperative way with consumers.
l A pilot project by the Chinese municipality of
Chongqing to blanket the city of 12 million
with 500,000 video cameras currently costs
$300 million in annual storage, but this price
is forecast drop to $3 million by 2020 cxv
.
“IT problems
with Hong
Kong’s new
airport in the
late 1990s
reportedly cost
the local
economy some
$600 million.”
15. Future OfTechnology
15
Evolving role of IT
l Gartner analyst Laura McLellan predicts that
‘...by 2017 the CMO will spend more on IT
than the CIO cxvi
.’
l The emergence of an increasingly
democratised technology infrastructure is a
direct response to technological maturity
‘...and the emergence of solutions designed
for functional managers without IT
dependencies cxvii
.’
l ‘Today, non-IT people, including business
executives and consumers, are either making
decisions or involved in the decision-making
process,’ says Didier Bonnet, senior vice
president for Capgemini Consulting cxviii
.
l It is likely that increasing numbers of current
IT roles, systems and services will migrate off-
premises such as cloud service providers.
l The demand for data analysts and their
strategic use is likely to form the core future
function of IT. Also likely to be important is
the servicing of existing on-premise
infrastructure and the strategic demarcation
of core technological projects, which may in
itself necessitate a new set of skills for the
CIO and those immediately below in the
organisation.
A new business paradigm
l PwC says the days of just ‘keeping up’ with
advances in mobile technology are over for
firms cxix
.
l As our environment becomes increasingly
digital, and 50 billion devices are connected
to the internet, billions of cognitive
assistants will be collecting information,
monitoring people’s behaviour and taking
predictive actions based on their preferences
cxx
. Like never before there is an opportunity
to make technology work for humans,
although the danger remains, and is perhaps
accentuated, that the reverse will be true.
l McKinsey suggests that closely aligning
technological choices with structural and
organisational forms will have the greatest
impact on the future of work. ‘The next leap
forward in the productivity of knowledge
workers will come from interactive
technologies combined with complementary
investments in process innovations and
training. Strategic choices, such as whether
to extend collaboration networks to
customers and suppliers, will be important
cxxi
.’
l In essence ‘...the change will be more about
the business model, and how technology is
used to change an organisation and its
interaction with customers, rather than some
major technology change on its own cxxii
.’ Jack
Bergstrand, the founder of Brand Velocity(
consultancy) and the former CIO of Coca-Cola
Leadership
l The Future of Work Research Consortium’s
Lynda Gratton suggests that, somewhat
paradoxically, the rise of technology will
accentuate the human dimension of
business.
l She believes that full transparency and the
revealing of information that is today
considered sensitive is a logical progression
of using the array of technologies open to
organisations.
l As a result ‘...there will be no place for leaders
to hide, so their authenticity and capacity to
be themselves will be crucial. This demand for
authenticity is new, and our top leaders will
need coaching to learn to be comfortable
with being themselves cxxiii
.’
The impact on the SME
l Business insurers Hiscox reports that ‘...89
percent of SMEs have mastered the use of
technology cxxiv
.’
l However it found that, whether due to
preference or capital constraints, only10
percent of SMEs were found to relish new
technology and generally upgrade equipment
as soon as it becomes available.
l In an Australian survey conducted by Small
Business Technology Institute (SBTI)
and Small Business Technology Magazine,
managers from more than 3,000 companies
reported that after health care, managing the
evolving technologies available is proving to
be a major concern cxxv
.
“It is likely that
increasing
numbers of
current IT
roles, systems
and services
will migrate
off-premises
such as cloud
service
providers.”
16. Future OfTechnology
16
l The report also indicated that small
businesses tend to allocate very limited
human and financial resources and that small
businesses approach IT support on a reactive
basis and reply heavily on tactical support by
product lenders.
l The combination of falling costs and
increasing democratisation of technology
means that many small businesses have, for
the first time, the opportunity to implement
business technology and level the playing
field with larger organisations. Benefits
include:
l Reducing business costs
l Improving communication
l Potential increase in business
l Analysts have suggested that the Cloud is a
great match for small business owners. ’Done
right, it brings speed, convenience, ease of
access, collaborative qualities, low costs, and
scalability. Firms that are already 100% Cloud
invested have a competitive advantage over
their more traditional competitors cxxvi
.’
l Mobile technologies, used correctly, hold the
prospect of allowing small business owners to
significantly streamline their work flow and
work smarter.
l SaaS sometimes referred to as on-demand
software, is a software delivery model in
which software and associated data are
centrally hosted on the Cloud. SaaS is
typically accessed by users using a thin client
via a web browser. SaaS has become a
common delivery model for many business
applications, with one of the biggest selling
points being the reduction of necessary in-
house IT costs.
l Gartner estimates that SaaS revenue will be
more than double its 2010 numbers by 2015
and will reach a projected $21.3 billion cxxvii
.
An interesting proposition for leveraging
technology to redraw a shifting business
landscape that favours SME’s is also emerging
l Some 37 percent of UK SMEs ‘...believe that in
50 years, traditional business centres will
disappear and advanced telepresence could
replicate many of the benefits of walking into
a traditional shop cxxviii
.’
l ‘Indeed, robotics and augmented reality may
open the possibility for hybrid High Streets,
which exist in both physical and digital
spaces simultaneously.
l A small business operating without a fixed
location could rent empty property on a
street that it then occupies with virtual
products and services.
What does this mean
for you
Technology will enable and indeed enforce
organisations to reassess their business models
as well as initiate the appearance of truly radical
technologically grounded organisations. The
ubiquity and scope of emerging technologies will
demand a greater attention to the strategic use
of technologies in their implementation for
employees, for and to customers and ultimately
in how they align to the goals and visions of an
organisation.
l IT’s talent needs – especially relating to data
analysis, need to be developed with a long
term view and in collaboration with key
players within the organisation.
l Technology, in the abstract sense, is at the
heart of complexity, but several
developments hold the promise of
significantly reducing it within organisations.
l Technology will necessitate a shift in how we
view work and will validate (and perhaps
even demand) several alternative ways of
working.
l Data will enable ever greater micro
segmentation of customers, increased
personalisation for customers and a more
effective search for new customers.
l Data will have a transformational role to play
within HR assuming its broad use is seen to
benefit employees in their efforts to reach
their goals, both professional and personal.
l Radically and rapidly redrawing business
“Gartner
estimates that
SaaS revenue
will be more
than double its
2010 numbers
by 2015 and
will reach a
projected
$21.3 billion
cxxvii
.”
17. Future OfTechnology
17
models, purpose and organisational
structures on an ongoing basis will be
possible for those with the greatest access to
data, the ability to analyse it, and integrate
the outcomes into actionable insights.
l Several technologies, from social networks to
data analytics promise to form the basic
infrastructure on which successful future
organisations are based.
l Choosing the right technology at the right
time will increasingly become a critical
differentiator for organisations.
Specifically, Forbes suggests the following
possible impacts from implementing various
technologies cxxix
:
l Leaders may profit from ubiquitous
workplace data by opting to rebalance the
work environment to support greater
collaboration and informal knowledge flows.
l Ambient technology and big data may enable
the discovery of optimal, and perhaps even
personalised, working patterns.
l Using smart data analytics, digital screens
and surfaces in the work environment will
automatically display updates, goals and
contextual information, whether it be in a
meeting or in the middle of a project.
l Social platforms could enable employees a
real time feedback mechanism. Alternatively
this may be gathered by their digital
footprint, or behaviour or else their mobile
devices.
l Mobile devices will interact with our physical
environments, allowing far greater
collaboration and information capture for
both managers and employees.
l ‘Organisations will learn at a faster rate as
social platforms will be querying and
aggregating social information from ERP
systems, CRM solutions, enterprise apps, and
mobile devices to provide employees with
relevant information.’
l Companies are beginning to understand the
power to solve a variety of business problems
by using gamification principles.
l Technologies that automatically introduce
employees to employees, partners and
suppliers and help build relationships will
appear.
l The future workplace will feature flexible
spaces. Such adaptive work spaces will adjust
to its intended purpose.
It should be noted, above all, that the key
requirement for the successful implementation
and realisation of these technologies and their
benefits, flows from cultural and structural
change within an organisation.
What can you do
about this today
l Invest in researching emerging technologies –
both those that impact internal operations
and those that could impact and redraw the
wider business environment.
l Identify the gaps in your current IT and
technology provision for both your
employees and customers. How far from best
practice are you, both within your industry
and in relation to pacesetters in other
industries?
l Develop metrics to measure the impact of
technology implementations.
l Develop the capability of IT personnel (and
even those who perform their roles but are
external to the department) to enable
strategic views and a greater sense of how,
where, when and why certain technologies
can be used and to what effect.
l Develop a radar for scanning the wider
external environment – including analyst
reports, whitepapers and thought leadership
pieces. Watch for so called ‘break’
technologies – ones that break supply chains
and value networks in at least one industry.
l Develop policies, frameworks and strategies
for dealing with the four core technologies as
well as BYOD and the cloud.
l Integrate the goals and visions of IT with the
greater organisational view.
l Develop a culture open to new ideas,
“The future
workplace will
feature flexible
spaces. Such
adaptive work
spaces will
adjust to its
intended
purpose.”
18. Future OfTechnology
18
practices and an organisation wide view of
change.
l Assess your value chain, and attempt to map
it out. Harvard Business Review notes that
‘...your value chain is big and it’s complex. It’s
been developed to satisfy your customers
given the technological landscape of the day.
But the technological landscape is constantly
changing cxxx
.’
l HBR also suggests that you ‘...outline, in
detail, how you create and deliver the
products and services your customers value.
Know each step up the value chain distinctly
and understand that the chain will have to
evolve over time.’
l Lastly, be prepared to deal with the prospect
of deciding how and when to disrupt your
own business. New technologies will usher in
successful new business models and
backcasting from your envisaged future to
the present may help in taking the first step.
Questions
l What is the state of your current
technological infrastructure, or ecosystem?
l Is it aligned and does it deliver results for
your customers and employees?
l Have you identified technological trends that
may soon present challenges for your
organisation? Conversely, have you explored
how you could turn these challenges into
opportunities?
l Do you have policies for planning,
software/systems acquisition,
software/systems maintenance, disposal,
systems management, data management,
operations, support, monitoring and
evaluation cxxxi
?
l Is your organisation well versed in
technology, especially at C-suite levels?
l Does your organisation have an IT/Business
aligned strategic plan?
l Does IT have the potential or the current
ability to act as a strategic partner?
l What are the roadblocks in your organisation
to successfully implementing technologies
that may benefit you.
l Do you have an agile organisational culture
that can handle rapid change?
References
i Source: Internet World Stats, 2013
http://www.internetworldstats.com/emarketing.htm
ii Source: Anson Alex, 2012 http://ansonalex.com/technology/modern-
communications-good-bad-society/
iii Source: MIT Technology Review, 2013
http://www.technologyreview.com/businessreport/making-money-in-
mobile/
iv Source: International Telecommunication Union, 2013
https://www.itu.int/net/pressoffice/press_releases/2013/05.aspx
v Source: NewYork Daily News, 2-12 http://www.nydailynews.com/life-
style/addicted-phones-84-worldwide-couldn-single-day-mobile-device
-hand-article-1.1137811
vi Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, management Thinking, 2013
http://www.managementthinking.eiu.com/sites/default/files/download
s/EIU_Humans%20&%20machines_FINAL_WEB.pdf
vii Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2013
https://chronicle.com/article/Robots-Arent-the-Problem-
/138007/?cid=cr
viii Source: Pew Internet, March 2012
http://pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Future-of-Apps-and-
Web/Overview.aspx
ix Source: Heidi Cohen, 2012 http://heidicohen.com/social-media-the-
one-thing-seventy-percent-of-brands-do-wrong-research/
x Source: ZdNet, October 2011
http://www.zdnet.com/blog/hinchcliffe/the-big-five-it-trends-of-the-
next-half-decade-mobile-social-cloud-consumerization-and-big-data/1
811
xi Source: McKinsey Global Institute pdf, July 2012, ‘The Social
Economy: Unlocking value and productivity through social
technologies.’
xii Source: USA Today, May 2012
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/story/2012-05-14/social-
media-economy-companies/55029088/1
xiii Source: Computing, February 2010
“Develop
policies,
frameworks
and strategies
for dealing
with the four
core
technologies
as well as
BYOD and the
cloud.”
