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Orion Cuffe, Ira Cross, Elaine Hirt
Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions
Interdisciplinary Research Project
NSHE is Administrator
Funded by $15M Grant
Sponsors: NSF, EPSCoR
Institutional Partners: UNR, UNLV, DRI
Important Role to
Develop Public Policy
Implementation
Most Closely Match Local
Needs for Climate
Change Adaptation
Often Lack Resources and
Timely & Accurate
Scientific Information
Necessary to Implement
Policy Effectively
Surveymonkey.com      Received 29 Complete
All Public Agencies   Self-Selected Responses
Sent 204 Surveys      14.2% Response Rate
Special        Business                       Non-Profit
   Purpose        Association                    Organization
 Government           6%                             3%
                                    Regional
(School, Utility,                    Agency
     Water                            13%
 District, etc.)
      7%
                                             State
                                          Government
                                            Agency
                          Local              23%
                       Government
                         Agency
    Federal               48%
  Government
    Agency
      0%
Climate Change Priority Level?
Organization Planning?
                          Information Sources?
                          Capacity for Planning?
                          Constraints and
                          Obstacles for
                          Implementation?
                          Cooperation Between
                          Local Government &
                          Organizations?
Is This Related to…         That?
  Media                       Confidence in Science
  Information Source          Organization Preparedness
  Size of Budget
  Number of Employees
  Organization Types


  How Does Nevada Compare
  with National Trends?
Data Cleaning & Coding
Successful Tests       Unsuccessful Tests
 Test of Two Means      ANOVA
 T-Test of Proportions  OLS Multiple
 Chi-Square             Regression
Chi-Square Test Results Reveal
                          Yes, There is a Relationship.

                          P = 0.0409

                          Inverse Relationship



Less News = More Confidence
More News = Less Confidence

Conclusion: Watching the News Erodes
Confidence in the Science.
Yes, Consultants           Chi-Square Test Results Show
                           Yes, There is a Relationship.
Strengthen Confidence in
                           P = 0.08
the Climate Change
Science When Used More
Often.
No, Budget Size Does Not Play a
Role Whether or Not an Agency is
Prepared for Climate Change.




                            Two Sample Test of Means
                            gives P-Value: 0.427 at 95%
                            Confidence Interval.
Chi-Square Test Results Show NO
Relationship

P = 0.6226




Conclusion: Do Not Rely on the Agency
Type Determine How Prepared the
Agency is to Deal with Climate Change
Issues. Applies to State Agencies to
Non-Profit Organization.
Regardless of the Type of Agency, the
Confidence in Climate Change Science
Remained Unaffected.




Chi-Square Test Reveals NO
Relationship.
P-Value = 0.4504
Even the Number of Staff of an Organization
has NO Affect in Preparedness for Climate
Change Issues.




                          Two Sample Test of Means Reveals NO
                          Relationship at 95% Confidence Interval.
                          P-Value = 0.924
                          T-Test Score = 0.096
Is Climate Change a Priority?
            18% Nevada Agencies Say Yes, It’s a Top Priority*
            3% National Average Says Yes, It’s a Top Priority**

      Confident in the Science of Climate Change
            71% Nevada Agencies Are Confident*
            57% National Average Is Confident***



*Note: NOT statistically significant different due to extremely high error, a consequence of low sample size.
**Bloomberg Poll conducted by Seizer & Co., Dec 3-7, 2009. N=1,000 adults nationwide +/- 3.1%
***Pew Research Center Poll conducted Sept 30-Oct 4, 2009. N=1,500 adults nationwide +/- 3.1%
“This is a waste of time
 and money. You cannot
   do anything about
    climate change.”
“It’s hard to get
concerned, when reports
 are so conflicting, and
politics play such a role.”
“What do we need to
    better plan?
   The Truth.”
“The national news media
 cannot be trusted to tell
   an unbiased truth!”
“A climate change
     clearing house.”
           “Get
  truthful, factual, long-
term, non-political data!”
“Is it really
real, or made
up Al Gore
     BS?!”
Long Process to Create & Approve Survey
   UNR Survey Policy
Very Poor Lack of Response!
   Not Enough Samples
   Limited What Tests Could Be Used
   High Margin of Error
Survey Was Long
   Over 45 Questions
Collect More Responses Through Phone
Interviews
Plan for Focus Group Research
Presentations—February & March 2010
  Las Vegas, Nevada
  San Francisco, California
Collaboration with UNLV
Save the Earth. It’s the only planet with chocolate!

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Nevada State Agency Climate Change Survey

  • 1. Orion Cuffe, Ira Cross, Elaine Hirt Statistical Analysis for Business Decisions
  • 2. Interdisciplinary Research Project NSHE is Administrator Funded by $15M Grant Sponsors: NSF, EPSCoR Institutional Partners: UNR, UNLV, DRI
  • 3. Important Role to Develop Public Policy Implementation Most Closely Match Local Needs for Climate Change Adaptation Often Lack Resources and Timely & Accurate Scientific Information Necessary to Implement Policy Effectively
  • 4. Surveymonkey.com Received 29 Complete All Public Agencies Self-Selected Responses Sent 204 Surveys 14.2% Response Rate
  • 5. Special Business Non-Profit Purpose Association Organization Government 6% 3% Regional (School, Utility, Agency Water 13% District, etc.) 7% State Government Agency Local 23% Government Agency Federal 48% Government Agency 0%
  • 6. Climate Change Priority Level? Organization Planning? Information Sources? Capacity for Planning? Constraints and Obstacles for Implementation? Cooperation Between Local Government & Organizations?
  • 7. Is This Related to… That? Media Confidence in Science Information Source Organization Preparedness Size of Budget Number of Employees Organization Types How Does Nevada Compare with National Trends?
  • 8. Data Cleaning & Coding Successful Tests Unsuccessful Tests Test of Two Means ANOVA T-Test of Proportions OLS Multiple Chi-Square Regression
  • 9. Chi-Square Test Results Reveal Yes, There is a Relationship. P = 0.0409 Inverse Relationship Less News = More Confidence More News = Less Confidence Conclusion: Watching the News Erodes Confidence in the Science.
  • 10. Yes, Consultants Chi-Square Test Results Show Yes, There is a Relationship. Strengthen Confidence in P = 0.08 the Climate Change Science When Used More Often.
  • 11. No, Budget Size Does Not Play a Role Whether or Not an Agency is Prepared for Climate Change. Two Sample Test of Means gives P-Value: 0.427 at 95% Confidence Interval.
  • 12. Chi-Square Test Results Show NO Relationship P = 0.6226 Conclusion: Do Not Rely on the Agency Type Determine How Prepared the Agency is to Deal with Climate Change Issues. Applies to State Agencies to Non-Profit Organization.
  • 13. Regardless of the Type of Agency, the Confidence in Climate Change Science Remained Unaffected. Chi-Square Test Reveals NO Relationship. P-Value = 0.4504
  • 14. Even the Number of Staff of an Organization has NO Affect in Preparedness for Climate Change Issues. Two Sample Test of Means Reveals NO Relationship at 95% Confidence Interval. P-Value = 0.924 T-Test Score = 0.096
  • 15. Is Climate Change a Priority? 18% Nevada Agencies Say Yes, It’s a Top Priority* 3% National Average Says Yes, It’s a Top Priority** Confident in the Science of Climate Change 71% Nevada Agencies Are Confident* 57% National Average Is Confident*** *Note: NOT statistically significant different due to extremely high error, a consequence of low sample size. **Bloomberg Poll conducted by Seizer & Co., Dec 3-7, 2009. N=1,000 adults nationwide +/- 3.1% ***Pew Research Center Poll conducted Sept 30-Oct 4, 2009. N=1,500 adults nationwide +/- 3.1%
  • 16. “This is a waste of time and money. You cannot do anything about climate change.”
  • 17. “It’s hard to get concerned, when reports are so conflicting, and politics play such a role.”
  • 18. “What do we need to better plan? The Truth.”
  • 19. “The national news media cannot be trusted to tell an unbiased truth!”
  • 20. “A climate change clearing house.” “Get truthful, factual, long- term, non-political data!”
  • 21. “Is it really real, or made up Al Gore BS?!”
  • 22. Long Process to Create & Approve Survey UNR Survey Policy Very Poor Lack of Response! Not Enough Samples Limited What Tests Could Be Used High Margin of Error Survey Was Long Over 45 Questions
  • 23. Collect More Responses Through Phone Interviews Plan for Focus Group Research Presentations—February & March 2010 Las Vegas, Nevada San Francisco, California Collaboration with UNLV
  • 24. Save the Earth. It’s the only planet with chocolate!